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Apple's Verizon iPhone 4 launch deemed a 'yawner' due to strong preorders

post #1 of 37
Thread Starter 
The lack of sprawling lines in stores for the launch of the iPhone 4 on Verizon this week shouldn't be a major concern to investors, one Wall Street analyst believes.

Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities admitted in a note to investors on Friday that trips to various Apple and Verizon stores in Manhattan for Thursday's launch day confirmed reports that lines were modest, or in some cases nonexistant. White said the retail launch was "a bit of a yawner" likely to due to strong pre-orders placed online, allowing customers to stay at work or at home and out of the cold weather.

"Although Manhattan clearly does not represent all of America, we believe this provides general color on demand trends," White said. "The lack of positive surprise on day one could provide an excuse for the stock to take a breather after a strong run after the past several weeks, however, we remain aggressive buyers of Apple on any weakness as we believe the company's portfolio has never been better positioned to capitalize on consumer trends."

White noted that Apple and Verizon sold out on initial preorders for existing customers in less than 24 hours. He has estimated that between the initial preorder and general online preorders that began on Wednesday, between 700,000 and a million units may have been sold.

"Given the extra cold weather this season, some consumers may have opted to wait to purchase a Verizon iPhone 4 or will simply order online," he said. "Finally, the App Stores seem to be less involved in this process versus the Verizon stores, and one worker indicated that some consumers were not even aware that the Verizon iPhone 4 was available at the Apple stores."

White expects that Verizon will activate 13.2 million iPhones in its first 12 months after the February launch, or 11.7 million iPhones in the remaining months of calendar year 2011. He cautioned, however, that those numbers "could prove conservative."

White also believes that Apple has more announcements planned for its CDMA iPhone 4 recently launched on the Verizon network, with China Telecom a likely candidate for a partnership.
post #2 of 37
I might become a analyst, because you don't seem to have to know all that much about the subject you release notes on.

The type of person that 'waits' in lines for an iPhone, is also the same person who already:

1) Owns an iPhone and is still under a contract with ATT and has an ETF
2) Was a long term Verizon hold out, who ordered online and was pacing waiting for FedEx on Monday.
3) Knows very well that iPhone 5 is due in June/July and if they are going to go whole hog and pay an ETF wants the 'newest' iPhone.

No wonder Wall Street had such issues in recent years, look whose 'insight' is calling the shots.

(sigh)
post #3 of 37
Apple/AT&T also had online preorders....and orders online during the kickoff. Yet, there were still longs lines outside of every store. Once the numbers come in, we will know how successful this was.
post #4 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by doubleusn View Post

I might become a analyst, because you don't seem to have to know all that much about the subject you release notes on.

The type of person that 'waits' in lines for an iPhone, is also the same person who already:

1) Owns an iPhone and is still under a contract with ATT and has an ETF
2) Was a long term Verizon hold out, who ordered online and was pacing waiting for FedEx on Monday.
3) Knows very well that iPhone 5 is due in June/July and if they are going to go whole hog and pay an ETF wants the 'newest' iPhone.

No wonder Wall Street had such issues in recent years, look whose 'insight' is calling the shots.

(sigh)

So very true
post #5 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

Apple/AT&T also had online preorders....and orders online during the kickoff. Yet, there were still longs lines outside of every store. Once the numbers come in, we will know how successful this was.

Not really, AT&T and Apple servers got hammered so bad that people couldn't even place orders, Apple and AT&T had to pull the plug early I remember. Verizon pre orders went smoothly and they was no need to get in line in 20 degrees weather I think.
post #6 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by fraklinc View Post

Not really, AT&T and Apple servers got hammered so bad that people couldn't even place orders, Apple and AT&T had to pull the plug early I remember. Verizon pre orders went smoothly and they was no need to get in line in 20 degrees weather I think.

If I recall, demand was so high the servers were slow. However, within a few hours, Apple and AT&T said that they had sold out in record time.
post #7 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by doubleusn View Post

I might become a analyst, because you don't seem to have to know all that much about the subject you release notes on.

The type of person that 'waits' in lines for an iPhone, is also the same person who already:

1) Owns an iPhone and is still under a contract with ATT and has an ETF
2) Was a long term Verizon hold out, who ordered online and was pacing waiting for FedEx on Monday.
3) Knows very well that iPhone 5 is due in June/July and if they are going to go whole hog and pay an ETF wants the 'newest' iPhone.

No wonder Wall Street had such issues in recent years, look whose 'insight' is calling the shots.

(sigh)

Don't forget also that indirects like
1. Bestbuy, wal-mart are selling these on day one.
2. the phones been out already what 7 months.
I've heard also frankly the opposite...we will see the numbers soon.
post #8 of 37
Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.
post #9 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

White said the retail launch was "a bit of a yawner" like to due to strong pre-orders placed online

let's make a deal: if you proof-read your blog entries then i'll read them.

350 words and you can't go through them to be sure they're all in the right order?

don't quit your day job.
post #10 of 37
A yawner because you don't give people enough credit. Why run out to stand in below freezing temps when you can order online or wait four or five months for the iphone5? If Verizon customers have waited years for the iphone, they can wait a few months for the latest version that doesn't have a faulty antenna.
post #11 of 37
At what point can a new product be successful even if there is not a line around the block? Is it a failure when Dial comes out with a new soap fragerance or Johnson & Johnson comes out with a new flavor of Children's Tylonel if there aren't long lines at the CVS Pharmacy?
post #12 of 37
If the AT&T launches of iPhone models taught us anything, it was to avoid the long lines and preorder if you wanted an iPhone on day one and did not want to hear "backorder" after waiting 2 hours to get to the front of the line. A few years ago, I waited in line for the 3G model and after 90 minutes, the store announced it was sold out. I was close to the front of the line. They had no idea when a new shipment would arrive, they said. I left after another 30 minutes of standing there. But amazingly, the line had doubled in length since I arrived. As I walked away, I passed a UPS delivery guy pushing a dolly full of shipping boxes heading in the opposite direction... Heading towards the... Suddenly the line of people at the Apple Store started cheering. Oh shit! FML. After that, I vowed two things: I would skip the 3G model to "punish" Apple for not making it easier to buy an iPhone (back then, they did not sell them online to prevent people from not activating them on AT&T), and I would do whatever it took to avoid waiting in line at an Apple Store. Lines are the antithesis of good customer service. I mean, if Apple is going to make long lines an annual event, they should take a lesson from Disneyland about line management and let people reserve a spot in line.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #13 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by doubleusn View Post

3) Knows very well that iPhone 5 is due in June/July and if they are going to go whole hog and pay an ETF wants the 'newest' iPhone.

This seems like the most likely explanation to me, or at least worth a mention by the analyst.
post #14 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Given the extra cold weather this season, some consumers may have opted to wait to purchase a Verizon iPhone 4 or will simply order online," he said. "Finally, the App Stores seem to be less involved in this process versus the Verizon stores, and one worker indicated that some consumers were not even aware that the Verizon iPhone 4 was available at the Apple stores."

How does this explain the lack of lines in sunny northern California?
post #15 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.

Is that why Verizon shut off pre-orders for existing Verizon customers 17 hours after starting them?
post #16 of 37
They type of people who wait in line are also the type of people who aren't going to buy an 8 month old phone because they own it already or have another smartphone on the carrier of their choosing.

Expect the iPhone 5 launch to be much more impressive than previous years however.
post #17 of 37
Here's a damn good laugh for everyone:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUaFywhywjA

And no, not like a laugh as in "look how bad Apple is" just a laugh as in, look how awkward this was...
post #18 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

How does this explain the lack of lines in sunny northern California?

Everyone went to the beach instead.
post #19 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.

I had a Motorola Droid X and while I agree that it is a good OS, in my opinion it is not anywhere near as good as iOS. I pre-ordered my iPhone 4 and received it this past Monday. I would never use Android if given a choice.
post #20 of 37
Where are the Android lines? Never have been, never will be. Generic commodity phones don't generate the excitement and publicity of an Apple launch. Sorry Droid chauvinists.
A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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post #21 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

At what point can a new product be successful even if there is not a line around the block? Is it a failure when Dial comes out with a new soap fragerance or Johnson & Johnson comes out with a new flavor of Children's Tylonel if there aren't long lines at the CVS Pharmacy?

When this is a tech item that is revamped every year and models are deemed obsolete/mid-cycle at the 6 month point: yes.

iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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post #22 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Where are the Android lines? Never have been, never will be. Generic commodity phones don't generate the excitement and publicity of an Apple launch. Sorry Droid chauvinists.

Thats because an android phone launches more often than the iPhone and through more retail outlets.

iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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iPad2 16 GB
iPhone 5 32 GB

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post #23 of 37
I'm one of those customers your referring to. Over the past 4 years I've had an iPhone 1, Sprint Evo 4G, and now a Verizon iPhone 4. I can honestly say...from experience with Android that it sucks. It looks pretty at first until you bite down into it. Then you realize it's just a plain old cracker.

1 - Battery life was awful
2 - the Android Market is shady!!!!! I felt like I was dealing out of a back alley in Budapest.
3 - Why is my Phone always hot?...
4 - Why does the OS reset in the middle of a phone call?
5 - I'd like to put my own crap on my crappy android phone. I don't need a carrier to preload it for me.
6 - Hell. I paid $400 bucks for this thing!

I love my walled garden now....It keeps the riff raff out! So xSamplex please speak for yourself..not for me.




Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.
post #24 of 37
That was before the iPhone was even a choice.

I know of several people ready to give up their Android phones.

The real test will be the iPhone 5 launch this summer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.
post #25 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by msuberly View Post

At what point can a new product be successful even if there is not a line around the block? Is it a failure when Dial comes out with a new soap fragerance or Johnson & Johnson comes out with a new flavor of Children's Tylonel if there aren't long lines at the CVS Pharmacy?

For about the billionth time, the Antenna is not and never was faulty.. its only in the media's wishful imagination. There is more then enough proof to show that virtually every phone can suffer signal loss depending on how its held.
post #26 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Many Verizon customers have already discovered that Android devices provide a very similar user experience to the iPhone, and without the walled-garden aspect of Apple's app-store. Why would anyone expect them to be clamoring for a fundamentally similar replacement device? The gap is just not as large as it was when the iPhone first came out and the wow factor was gigantic.

They don't have the "walled-garden aspect of Apple's app store" but they also don't have any worthwhile apps, period. The "walled-garden aspect of Apple's app store" is by far the iPhone's strongest selling point. The only people who think it's a negative are the same group of niche consumers who get excited about task killers.
post #27 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Here's a damn good laugh for everyone:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUaFywhywjA

And no, not like a laugh as in "look how bad Apple is" just a laugh as in, look how awkward this was...

The staff outnumbered the customers 10-1 lol
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"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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"I got the answer by talking in my brain and I agreed of the answer my brain got" a 7 yr old explaining his math HW
"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX
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post #28 of 37
I think all of this was unnecessary on Verizon's part. Its a 7 month old phone that had big pre-orders and is launching at several other locations on the same day. We are roughly three months from the announcement of the next new iPhone. Not the combination for long lines.

This summer will be different though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

And no, not like a laugh as in "look how bad Apple is" just a laugh as in, look how awkward this was...
post #29 of 37
Verizon iPhone sales are going to be spread out as people's contracts expire over the next year. I see no problem in that. AT&T's iPhone releases are times so people who bought iPhone's on launch day 2 years previous will all be ready to upgrade at the same time.
post #30 of 37
No stress for me.

The idea of getting up at 2.30am to preorder sucked, but not nearly as much as waiting until yesterday, then waiting outside in the cold, taking half a day off and *maybe* ending up with a phone. I went back to sleep at 3.15 that night feeling pretty good about things.

Getting my phone on Monday (yes, one of those pacing Verizon people who's been waiting 5 years), having it up and running at home in less than half an hour 4 days before release time certainly didn't suck. In fact, most people who have seen I have an iP4 have asked me how I got it before release date and none of them have AT&T ones either, and are interested in the Verizon one in the near future.

I also don't mind the avoidance of dodgy apps through Apple as well as the fact that a lot of the apps I wanted to run I was pretty unsure I'd find for Android currently. I'm on wifi about 99% of the time...Since Monday I've used 30megabytes of data, and that's with pretty constant use every day, I haven't had a drop out nor have I felt that the network has been unreasonably slow when I've been away from wifi.
post #31 of 37
Not relevant. First, when the iPhone originally came out, people were standing in line at AT&T because AT&T was the only place to get the iPhone. Further, Apple hyped the iPhone for four months prior to releasing it. Second, after the iPhone was out for a year and Apple introduced the second generation iPhone, AT&T offered upgrade incentives. So, people who still had a year on their contracts could upgrade with no penalty. Further, they could sell the first generation iPhone for more then what the cost of the new phone was. So, they were often times a couple of hundred dollars richer. Third, after the third generation iPhone came out, many of the initial purchasers were now out of contract so again there were no penalties for switching iPhones, and old iPhones are still selling for more then what people paid out of pocket for them. Further, AT&T again gave renewal and upgrade incentives.

Verizon is giving no upgrade incentives. The termination fee is large. Further, people on Verizon don't have a current iPhone to sell thereby offsetting any termination fee. Most AT&T customers are still under contract so even if they were considering switching there would be a few hundred dollars termination fee. Not worth it.

Very few people buying the Verizon iPhone are coming from AT&T. They are coming from Sprint and T-Mobile. Verizon people most likely preordered or ordered online.



Quote:
Originally Posted by noexpectations View Post

Apple/AT&T also had online preorders....and orders online during the kickoff. Yet, there were still longs lines outside of every store. Once the numbers come in, we will know how successful this was.
post #32 of 37
I think it is a wait and see delay...

I have an original Droid on Verizon with about a year left on my contract. It would cost me $700.00 to get an iPhone 4. While the Droid bugs are annoying it is a pretty good phone and can even do a few things that the iPhone cannot do. Mine even has a cracked screen and has been under water once....

The ONLY reason I can tolerate the Droid until a new iPhone comes out is that it is rooted. The rooted ROMS fix most of the problems with Android. ( There are still a few annoying bugs that no one has been able to fix ) It is quite ironic that the hacked ROMS are significantly more stable than the "Official" ROMS.


I also have a 3G iPad. I now use it more than I do the Droid. I think that I can wait until a better iPhone is avaliable. lately, I have been thinking about simply going back to a standard cell phone and simpy using the iPad for data needs.... My 46 year old eyes can see the 10" iPad a lot better than the little phone displays....
post #33 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Here's a damn good laugh for everyone:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUaFywhywjA

And no, not like a laugh as in "look how bad Apple is" just a laugh as in, look how awkward this was...

Yeah, that was pretty awkward.. May have been even more so if the person was there for a reason other than the Verizon iPhone. :P
post #34 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xennex View Post

Yeah, that was pretty awkward.. May have been even more so if the person was there for a reason other than the Verizon iPhone. :P

LOL! Yeah, like "Umm, I'm here to apply for a job?"
post #35 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

That was before the iPhone was even a choice.

I know of several people ready to give up their Android phones.

The real test will be the iPhone 5 launch this summer.

I agree. I know several people who have recently switched back to an iPhone after having an Android phone.

More interesting to me, I know two people who have switched back to WebOS from Android even acknowledging that the Droid hardware was much better - they just never really liked the Android OS as much.
post #36 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

They don't have the "walled-garden aspect of Apple's app store" but they also don't have any worthwhile apps, period. The "walled-garden aspect of Apple's app store" is by far the iPhone's strongest selling point. The only people who think it's a negative are the same group of niche consumers who get excited about task killers.

Well put

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #37 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by normang View Post

For about the billionth time, the Antenna is not and never was faulty.. its only in the media's wishful imagination. There is more then enough proof to show that virtually every phone can suffer signal loss depending on how its held.

Huh??? I didn't say anything about the antenna.
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