or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Analyst: Apple could benefit from Nokia, Microsoft partnership
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Analyst: Apple could benefit from Nokia, Microsoft partnership

post #1 of 32
Thread Starter 
Commenting on Nokia's recent announcement that it will abandon its Symbian mobile operating system on smartphones in favor of Microsoft's Windows Phone OS, one analyst claimed that Apple could stand to benefit from the transition.

In a note to investors Friday, analyst Mike Abramsky of RBC Capital Markets said that the new partnership between Nokia and Microsoft may "inadvertently help" its competitors, namely Apple and Google Android, and possibly BlackBerry maker Research in Motion.

Nokia Chief Executive Stephen Elop, who formerly served as Microsoft's Business Division head, and Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer issued a joint open letter Friday announcing the strategic alliance.

"Today, developers, operators and consumers want compelling mobile products, which include not only the device, but the software, services, applications and customer support that make a great experience," Elop said at a joint news conference in London. "Nokia and Microsoft will combine our strengths to deliver an ecosystem with unrivaled global reach and scale. It's now a three-horse race."

The announcement came just days after Elop had issued a surprisingly candid internal memo comparing Nokia's situation to "standing on a burning platform." Elop compared competition from Apple to an "intense heat," admitting that the iPhone maker had "disrupted the market by redefining the smartphone."

According to Abramsky, the deal between Nokia and Microsoft "could produce a stronger combined platform" on paper, but may instead result in gains for rival smartphone platforms.

The analyst notes that if successful, Microsoft could see its share of the global smartphone market rise from less than 5 percent to 30-35 percent. On the other hand, "the partnership may accelerate competitor share gains to Android, Apple and RIM," Abramsky said.

Apple, Android and RIM could present "possible disruptions to Nokia and Microsoft while making it work," though Microsoft has promised priority and customization to Nokia. Also, "possible carrier and Enterprise caution on adopting Nokia/Microsoft pending roadmap/product visibility" could affect early sales of Nokia's forthcoming Windows Phone 7 handsets.

Abramsky also speculated that existing Microsoft OEMs may further favor Android because of the increased competition. Finally, "developer hesitation, pending visibility to traction for the platform" could result in a boost for Apple and its rivals.

The analyst concluded by noting that the Nokia/Microsoft partnership could cause "ripple effects" to the smartphone industry and along the supply chain, "including setting up bigger battles between Nokia/Microsoft and Android/Apple/RIM for platform dominance at carriers, emerging markets, content and developers."
post #2 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Abramsky also speculated that existing Microsoft OEMs may further favor Android because of the increased competition. Finally, "developer hesitation, pending visibility to traction for the platform" could result in a boost for Apple and its rivals.

Meh - manufacturers weren't exactly flocking to MS anyway. The allure of "free" Android that they can molest at will combined with a probably justified fear of being "zuned" at some future point had already done WP7 in.
post #3 of 32
Nokia does not have any pull with customers as far as smartphones are concerned. Their market share is based solely on cheap phones and psuedo-smartphones.

Teaming up with M$ will achieve them nothing. The phones won't be any better than Apple's or Android.

If they pull the Symbian phones off and replace them with more costly M$ phones then their market share will plummet.
post #4 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

Meh - manufacturers weren't exactly flocking to MS anyway. The allure of "free" Android that they can molest at will combined with a probably justified fear of being "zuned" at some future point had already done WP7 in.

Yeah. Don't see a noticeable impact on Apple here. Also I don't see the kind of leadership taking hold that the MS/Nokia tandem would need. Who's in charge of this effort? Ballmer? Nokia execs? Nobody in particular? Then you look at the so-called 'independent' efforts of various sorts cooked up within MS in the past - they've all failed. Victims of corporate politics, ennui, whatever.

When Jobs came back to Apple, one of the first things he did was 'clean out the deadwood' there. He had to install, or re-install if you like, Apple's core culture. That's not happening at either MS or Nokia. They want to change their destinies, but they don't want to muss their hair doing it.

Fail.
post #5 of 32
Now Nokia is on board wil WP7, LG, Samsung, HTC will need to weigh their resources. Perhaps they will divert more R&D efforts on WP too, sort of intensified internal turf war. In the long run I think the future of Android is in the hands of cheap makers in China, Samsung, Mot will find it is hard to compete with every other guy who can throw out an Android in a couple month. WP on the other hand weeds out small players, so it may maintain a higher end product.
post #6 of 32
Boy, if this in-depth analysis I should have this guys job. If it works, MicroNokia could pick-up 30%-35% of the market. (Obviously no help to Google/Apple). But, if it doesn't - it will help Google/Apple. Well, duh.
post #7 of 32
Obviously, this move will benefit Nokia's competitors. android makers will benefit the most, but so will everyone else. Apple more so than RIM, I would imagine.

And if it's true that Apple is coming out with a $200 phone, they could benefit widely.
post #8 of 32
So...

Microsoft has been seeing the regular departure of senior managers over the last year.

Next they turn up with senior jobs at competitors

And now Nokia chooses Microsoft


You got to wonder about that. Got to wonder....


After all, what better strategy than to send your generals into the field intentionally so that you can get passed trying to negotiate with your competitor, now you just call up old mate.

Elop were you the greek gift?

I'm trying to think if this can be related to a law or something.. any ideas?
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
post #9 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by tbsteph View Post

Boy, if this in-depth analysis I should have this guys job. If it works, MicroNokia could pick-up 30%-35% of the market. (Obviously no help to Google/Apple). But, if it doesn't - it will help Google/Apple. Well, duh.

How I interpreted it-
Abramsky: There's going to be some winners and some losers.
post #10 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post

So...

Microsoft has been seeing the regular departure of senior managers over the last year.

Next they turn up with senior jobs at competitors

And now Nokia chooses Microsoft


You got to wonder about that. Got to wonder....


After all, what better strategy than to send your generals into the field intentionally so that you can get passed trying to negotiate with your competitor, now you just call up old mate.

Elop were you the greek gift?

I'm trying to think if this can be related to a law or something.. any ideas?

I think it was obviously in the mind of Nokia awhile back that they needed to get in bed with MS, so hiring Elop made the most sense. Who knows, they may have been more interested in Hurd, but they knew that HP had already bought their way into software with the Palm purchase, so they looked to Redmond finally. I wouldn't be surprised to find out MS had approached Nokia with the idea in the first place. This has more of the ring of marrying heads of state to form strategic alliances against common enemies (Apple, Android, and now HP) than the idea of a Trojan Horse being planted by MS in the form of Elop, IMHO.

Just goes to prove that sitting in scandinavian saunas all day long in can cook your brain big time.
post #11 of 32
.

(just hope most of you understand metaphors)
.


Partnering of Nokia and Microsoft

Is the same as Stanley Steamer

Joining up with a Coal Fuel Company

.

(dig my drift daddy-o)



.
post #12 of 32
Elop spelled backwards is "pole"

"lope" is an anagram of Elop, as is "pe-ol," which could be construed as slang for meatus (pronounced "pee-'ole")

Elop is pronounced "ell ope" in Finnish.
post #13 of 32
IMHO

They should have stock to MeeGo and brought RIMM into the partnership there. That would have presented a formidable partnership. They were faced with 3 devils:

1- Android - the Google centric OS. Ruled by Google to serve Google's interest. NOt a good choice.

2- Windows - In some senses this seems like a good choice. MS needs them as much as they need Windows, However - if they are successful, then that will change and they will be serving a very greedy, and ever more powerful master.

3- MeeGo - The devil here is in the details. Creating an OS is no trivial affair. One can never be sure if one has it right until it is in the field. MS has not been particularly good at this, but their dominance has made it "acceptable" in the past. Now they are in different waters. With Nokia combined with their economic weight, they have the ability to forge ahead. With MeeGo, any serious error could have led to total rejection of the platform - a complete disaster.

So Nokia capitulated and went with the easy way out. To my mind, this does not look good for their long term future.
post #14 of 32
I think that may have potential. In some ways, the announcements almost sounded like some kind of "pre-merger". It certainly sounds as if Nokia may be getting preferential treatment as far as Windows Phone goes.

The big downside is the lack of a tablet using the same technology as the phone for who knows how long.
post #15 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Today, developers, operators and consumers want compelling mobile products, which include not only the device, but the software, services, applications and customer support that make a great experience ... "

The group think that produced the above press statement is just bone-headed. They figure out why Apple has been so successful lately and then they go and get it backwards. It's just a tiny thing, but the fact that "great experience" is tacked on to the end like an after thought shows how off course they are already. Nobody gives a crap about the rest of the B.S. sandwich they served up. The fact that Elop and Ballmer signed off on it show they really don't get it.

Maybe I'm being nit-picky, but Apple would have just said "great experience" ... meant it ... and left it at that.
post #16 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by penchanted View Post

I think that may have potential. In some ways, the announcements almost sounded like some kind of "pre-merger". It certainly sounds as if Nokia may be getting preferential treatment as far as Windows Phone goes.

The big downside is the lack of a tablet using the same technology as the phone for who knows how long.

Or a marriage of boat anchors? The real problem it seems to me, is that Microsoft can't afford to get too chummy with any of their OEMs. If it looks to any of Microsoft's partners like they're not in the same place in the food chain as Nokia, any one of them could defect to or stay with Android. Microsoft can't keep order in this house they way they could with the Windows OEMs, with lead pipe persuasion.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #17 of 32
They were both forced into this deal. They really had no other choice. It's do-or-die desperation time for these behemoths. Combining two dinosaurs won't produce a mammal. This deal will obviously help Apple more as it really focuses more on stemming the Android tide from Samsung, LG, SE, HTC and Motorola than the iOS devices. Sure they want Apple's action as well but their main worry is Android. This deal buys Apple some time to come up with a more comprehensive market share strategy in the midrange to low-end segments of the mobile market. Man, you just couldn't script things better for Apple. It's really amazing to observe how Apple is playing the competition like a drum.
post #18 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagman View Post

I think it was obviously in the mind of Nokia awhile back that they needed to get in bed with MS, so hiring Elop made the most sense.

...

Just goes to prove that sitting in scandinavian saunas all day long in can cook your brain big time.

Interesting.

You know, you are probably on it. Which is even more sad. So Nokia hires the Microsoft guy cause he has Ballmer's phone number and can probably extract some more concessions.
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
post #19 of 32
I think this is good for Apple... but not necessarily for RIM and Android.

I don't think MS is going to let the smartphone market go laying down... They still generate a ton of profits and can keep pouring money into this until they have a decent market share.

And, if that turns out to happen... They'll likely be eating away market share from RIM and Android not iOS.

As an investor: Yes, PLEASE fragment the non-iOS market space!!!!!!!!

That's my take, at least
post #20 of 32
Apparently when you leave your job at microsoft you have a big "MORON" tattooed to your forehead as you have no real clue how to run a non-monopoly business. Why in the world would you announce this joint effort to the world up to a year before you can actually implement it in new devices, and before you've had time to effectively prepare/ transition your huge installed user base? Nothing says "abandon my brand" like "I'm going to dump the OS you are now using, because it has no future and I sold you crap, and we will not have something new to replace it for you for the next 12 months or so!

This is why Apple has such tight security on info leaks on new products et al. (Remember the intel switch that went so smoothly after it wasn't announced until products were ready.) It is a competitive advantage to keep secrets and protect the existing business - sell what you have. Now all loyal Nokia users have been told / given permission to look for something else that is better because what they are using has no future. And that something new and better most certainly won't be MSFT/Nokia handsets. ROFLOL at this one.
post #21 of 32
I think could work in the long term.

However, I agree that this is an oppotunity for Apple, HTC, RIM, etc. Who is going to buy the 150 million Symbian phones that Nokia thinks it's going to sell over the next two years? Who is going to develop apps for an operating system on death row? I could see their smartphone marketshare plummet dramatically by the time that WP7 comes in.
post #22 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

I think could work in the long term.

However, I agree that this is an oppotunity for Apple, HTC, RIM, etc. Who is going to buy the 150 million Symbian phones that Nokia thinks it's going to sell over the next two years? Who is going to develop apps for an operating system on death row? I could see their smartphone marketshare plummet dramatically by the time that WP7 comes in.

Agreed.

- Either they're looking for a buyout (M$ 's deep pockets could buy Nokia... and make them a hardware producer with huge experience suddenly)
- or they have a Trojan in (I'd be surprised if Elop had no more shares from M$)...
I hope, really, it's reason 1, since reason 2 would be so sad, business wise.

However, from a developer's point of view, Android is a great system to program for (it's easy, Java which means 5 million programmers on board, and they'll own the bottom of the sales pyramid for years on, imho), and the iPhone owns the top of the pyramid. Both are moneymakers, though of course the top of the pyramid has the best time&effort to success ratio.
WP7 means C#, which has a lot of developers, but it's annoying to code for, it has a very uncertain future and Nokia just sent a message to developers that it doesn't care about their time investment.
If you've spent time learning Symbian, you're f****d, if you spent time learning MeeGo, you're so f***d. WP7? No, thanks. I'll join the bandwagon if it ever proves its worth, and during that time I'll be making money with iOS.

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

Reply

Social Capitalist, dreamer and wise enough to know I'm never going to grow up anyway... so not trying anymore.

 

http://m.ign.com/articles/2014/07/16/7-high-school-girls-are-kickstarting-their-awa...

Reply
post #23 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

Who is going to buy the 150 million Symbian phones that Nokia thinks it's going to sell over the next two years? Who is going to develop apps for an operating system on death row?

Um, the third world?

The average semi-educated person living in a developing nation has probably heard of an iPhone, but I can tell you that unless they have a nice wage from a government job in the big cities, they will never lay eyes on an iPhone, let alone afford one.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
Reply
post #24 of 32
Nokia is done.

Microsoft has never produced a successful product that is not a piece of PC or enterprise software. Their "batting average" in electronics is .001 (Maybe you can count the mice they sell). For Nokia to embrace windows for the phone, it is basically suicide.
Cat: the other white meat
Reply
Cat: the other white meat
Reply
post #25 of 32
In Elop's famous memo he described Nokia as a 'burning Platform' then he says it's better to jump:

"Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the platform's edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters. As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a "burning platform," and he needed to make a choice."

Seems he's implying Msft as not an ideal but desperate choice. His analogy of Msft is jumping 30m into "dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters.".

lol.
post #26 of 32
WTF if it fails the others can pick up the 5% market share MS has. Its only 5% so who cares?

The way I see it this is really good for MS and Nokia. Nokia get to save a load on money by not having to develops an os. MS is gaining more devices but more importantly a partner that will actually advertise the product! There are basically no adverts for wp7, a few before xmas but since then nothing.

Everyone running android (which also tend to have wp7 as well) also gains as it helps stop Google having control over them.

All in all though, nobodys in that bad a place as the markets growing so everyones making more money. Apple may have taken a large share of the market, but they also took us from a world where people paid £60 for a phone to one where a lot of people now pay £500.
post #27 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post

Nokia is done.

Microsoft has never produced a successful product that is not a piece of PC or enterprise software. Their "batting average" in electronics is .001 (Maybe you can count the mice they sell). For Nokia to embrace windows for the phone, it is basically suicide.

XBox 360? Managed to beat Sony with that.
Kinect? Managed to outsell Apple with that.
post #28 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

XBox 360? Managed to beat Sony with that.
Kinect? Managed to outsell Apple with that.

@nht - before you make such ridiculous posts you really need to get yourself and education. First, MSFT has lost BILLIONS on the xbox. Only the deluded would call that a success. Second, as to Kinect, its a peripheral device! Not a standalone product so you are trying to compare it to Apples' sales of what? Also, now try to pay attention, MSFT didn't develop the technology in Kinect, they bought it. So your point is what? In the future, before you post, please try to have a better understanding of the subject matter at hand.
post #29 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

XBox 360? Managed to beat Sony with that.
Kinect? Managed to outsell Apple with that.

Kinect out sold ALL of Apple ? Thats iMac, MBP, MBA, Mac Mini, Apple TV, iPod, iPhone and iPad.
Is that what you infer ?
post #30 of 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht View Post

XBox 360? Managed to beat Sony with that.
Kinect? Managed to outsell Apple with that.

The 360 has done a little better than break even. As you say, much more successful than the PS3 in terms of profits.

Don't think you can compare the Kinect to any Apple product.

C.
post #31 of 32
Of course Apple will benefit. So will Android. Symbian has far more similarities to these two operating systems than it does to Windows Phone 7. I can see a lot of Symbian users jumping to iOS or Android when its time to upgrade and Symbian isn't a viable choice. For that matter, now that Nokia has announced its intention to kill off Symbian in the next two years, I don't even know why anybody would bother staying with Nokia anyway.
post #32 of 32
Nokia has the license to customize WP7. Actually, they claim they'll be working in partnership with MS to that purpose. So, I'm aready assuming that the WP7 OS we'll find on Nokia phones will be to some degree different (albait compatible, I really hope) from the one on other hardware producers.

I also think it will be quite likely we'll see other features I can't really understand why are currently missing in WP7, such as thetering and Sync with Outlook.
In other words, I think this degree of exclusivity may be enough to generate that uniqueness that is indeed needed to compete against the iPhone.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Analyst: Apple could benefit from Nokia, Microsoft partnership