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Apple expected to ship 6.5M iPads in first quarter, 40 million in 2011

post #1 of 40
Thread Starter 
Shipments of the iPad, including the second-generation model to be announced by Apple today, are expected to be between 6 million and 6.5 million in the first quarter of 2011, on their way to 40 million for the calendar year.

The numbers from DigiTimes on Wednesday show that Apple expects to significantly ramp up production of the iPad as 2011 wears on. For the initial launch of the iPad 2, Apple is expected to have between 300,000 and 400,000 units available.

Apple reportedly ordered between 1.7 million and 2 million iPads in January and February. Order volumes for March, including the to-be-announced iPad 2, are expected to top 2 million.

Citing industry sources, the report said there were between 1 million and 1.5 million units of iPad inventory in the channel in January. It added that Apple is "already set to phase out the first-generation iPad and let iPad 2 take its place."

In a separate report, DigiTimes also reported that gallium arsenide (GaAs) power amplifer suppliers, including TriQuint Semiconductor and Skyworks Solutions, are expected to benefit from the iPad 2 launch. Visual Photonics Epitaxy Company and Advanced Wireless Semiconductor Company of Taiwan are also said to be GaAs foundry suppliers for the iPad 2.

In February, it was said that more than 60 percent of Apple's initial iPad 2 production would be 3G-capable models. The company is expected to produce three versions of the new iPad: a Wi-Fi-only model, a GSM/UMTS version, and a CDMA/EVDO model.

Apple's official unveiling of its second-generation iPad will take place Wednesday at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. AppleInsider will have full, extensive coverage.
post #2 of 40
I don't know how they can make this prediction before seeing it. They must be assuming it won't be very different to the current one.
post #3 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

I don't know how they can make this prediction before seeing it. They must be assuming it won't be very different to the current one.

I'm assuming that. Why wouldn't you? It pays to be pessimistic with Apple, that way you're surprised by anything they do that's actually radical change.
post #4 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is expected to have between 300,000 and 400,000 units available.

This seems absurdly low. I think there were a lot of people that held out for iPad 2 for whatever reason. I really don't think it matters much what Apple shows today. People already want it.
post #5 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcahill009 View Post

I think there were a lot of people that held out for iPad 2 for whatever reason. I really don't think it matters much what Apple shows today. People already want it.

Thats spot on (from my point of view). For various reasons (mainly financial) I held off, then when i was in a position to get one, decided to wait until G2. Hoping for a slightly increased CPU/GPU and memory. I dont expect any real change in screen performance. I *think* (nothing to back up this up) that they may be going with an increase in battery size to keep the battery life up, rather than any real unit size decreases.

All I know for certain is that I want one ASAP. Low Expectations mean i won't be dissapointed
post #6 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm assuming that. Why wouldn't you? It pays to be pessimistic with Apple, that way you're surprised by anything they do that's actually radical change.

There have been so few rumors this time around I don't know what to expect.
post #7 of 40
Dual boot w/ Android!
post #8 of 40
It would be great if it added multiple user support, so that it could be shared for email, facebook, etc when on the coffee table.

It would also be great for Facebook to announce a native verson for the iPad.
post #9 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by bcahill009 View Post

This seems absurdly low. I think there were a lot of people that held out for iPad 2 for whatever reason. I really don't think it matters much what Apple shows today. People already want it.

I think that estimate of 400,000 units is a day one available for purchase today number - with tens of thousands (or more) to be rolling off the assembly line each day going forward.

In these days of just in time manufacturing it pays to have a relatively small stockpile of anything - so that changes in demand can be made at the beginning of the production line and work their way through in a matter of days rather than weeks or months.
post #10 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by jabbajon View Post

It would be great if it added multiple user support, so that it could be shared for email, facebook, etc when on the coffee table.

It would also be great for Facebook to announce a native verson for the iPad.

But why? I find a smartphone is best for what I need to do on FB. After all, most people are simply checking out pictures, and writing or reading on walls. That does not require anything larger than a 3.5"-4" screen.
post #11 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

There have been so few rumors this time around I don't know what to expect.

Was that sarcasm? We've had just about every single rumor possible! 'Course, we always do.

1.2Ghz processor, double RAM, dual cameras, double capacity, new design, Thunderbolt, SD card, USB port (ALREADY HAS IT), CDMA model, LTE model, 7" version (*snort*)...

I think the point anymore is to shoot a Tomahawk missile at the dartboard and see what sticks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

Hey, I plan to put Honeycomb on my first-gen once it's out. Already have iOS 4.2 and Android 2.2 on my iPhone 2G.
post #12 of 40
6M in the first quarter?

So much for glass production problems limiting supply.
post #13 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Was that sarcasm? We've had just about every single rumor possible! 'Course, we always do.

1.2Ghz processor, double RAM, dual cameras, double capacity, new design, Thunderbolt, SD card, USB port (ALREADY HAS IT), CDMA model, LTE model, 7" version (*snort*)...


It will apparently will come with a new glass, which is perfect for snorting .... Of course, there's an app for that. Apple gets 30% if you buy the white stuff from inside the app.
post #14 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

I agree. Steve J. saw the light and capitulated to the rising onslaught that is Android. Soon iOS will be no more.

Hmmmmmm...
Reply
Hmmmmmm...
Reply
post #15 of 40
Apple needs to sell the crap out of the iPad 2 to shut up the pundits with their ridiculous banter about Android tablets taking huge amounts of market share from the iPad. If Apple can sell 6 million iPads to every 1 million Android tablets, that will keep Apple well in the lead in mind-share alone. Apple needs to get some cloud hook that consumers absolutely cannot resist and won't even consider buying an Android tablet. Every time a new Android tablet is introduced, Apple needs to counter with some offer that will knock the legs out from under that particular Android tablet. If Apple can do that for another year maybe rival Android vendors will realize that the tablet business isn't viable for them and most of them will just give up.

Maybe the iPad 2 will merely offer a processor speed-bump, added cameras and hopefully the same battery life as the iPad 1 in a thinner case. If the display quality is kept high, consumers should still take to it. I hope they're already starting to camp out in front of Apple retail stores. I'd like to see these Android tablet dominance rumors squashed as quickly as possible.
post #16 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

I think that estimate of 400,000 units is a day one available for purchase today number - with tens of thousands (or more) to be rolling off the assembly line each day going forward.

In these days of just in time manufacturing it pays to have a relatively small stockpile of anything - so that changes in demand can be made at the beginning of the production line and work their way through in a matter of days rather than weeks or months.

400k is not a small stockpile. Think about it. If you manufacture 4M instead, that would indeed meet the immediate demand. But storage incurs cost. Furthermore, this also means they wait a few months for 4M units to be built before they release the product. Either that, or they overbuild production capacity (which may not be available). Does either make sense?

The way Apple does it is not much too different than what most companies do. The main difference is that Apple works in numbers that are far greater. It's not truly a matter of limiting supply to create a sense of demand. It is a balance between manufacturing capacity, storage, delivery and prediction of demand. A very fine game - and another one Apple has mastered.

Somewhat limited supply is far better than excess inventory or unused manufacturing capacity.
post #17 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

That would be an awesome step towards tablet OS commoditization.
post #18 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

That would be an awesome step towards tablet OS commoditization.

Odd. "Commodity" and "awesome" in the same sentence!

C.
post #19 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

It will apparently will come with a new glass, which is perfect for snorting .... Of course, there's an app for that. Apple gets 30% if you buy the white stuff from inside the app.

LOL, I never knew that was a selling point for tablets!
post #20 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

Odd. "Commodity" and "awesome" in the same sentence!

C.

I only speak from the point of view of the consumer.
post #21 of 40
Well the Apple Store is down so there's probably *some* new product this morning.
post #22 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Well the Apple Store is down so there's probably *some* new product this morning.

Anticipation building......
post #23 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Well the Apple Store is down so there's probably *some* new product this morning.

Apple bought the rights to the Zune and will be reintroducing it at 10...
Hmmmmmm...
Reply
Hmmmmmm...
Reply
post #24 of 40
FWIW, I posted this on another thread:

First. Macnn had the teaser up and an active link to the article -- showing a screenshot of Amazon pages.


The Amazon pages listed an iPad with the features stated in the teaser, and AIR, a 449 Euro price (don't recall the RAM size).

Beneath that list item was another that (I think) had the same price but didn't mention the new features... (a current iPad 1?).


Then they took down the linked page -- went to an error page listing the linked page, among others, that were unavailable.

Then the linked page listing was removed from the error page.

Finally, the the teaser page disappeared...

Pffhhht... It never happened.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Macnn had this up.

Edit: but now it's gone.

The link worked, but now is broken!

Quote:
current news
iPad 2 specs leaked by Amazon Germany, 1.2GHz, Thunderbolt?
43 minutes ago | Posted in: Apple, iPad

diggemail(1)
An eagle-eyed German reader has sent Your Daily Apple a screen shot from a since removed Amazon Germany page that appears to list the specifications of the next-generation iPad due to be introduced later today. The site listed the Apple iPad 2 with a 1.2Ghz processor, Wi-Fi, 3G, Thunderbolt, Camera, and Bluetooth, all of which have been deemed either likely or possible inclusions for the device. Further, the listing also makes reference to an estimated March 17 release date, corroborating recent reports that the device would be ready to ship almost immediately.
more

Read more: http://www.macnn.com/#ixzz1FRdByfmT
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #25 of 40
And when it comes back up, the new iPad will be there!!
| 1TB 2.66 GHz C2D Mac mini Server | 32GB 3G Black iPad 2 | Apple TV 2 | 256GB 1.8 GHz i7 11" Macbook Air | 16GB Black iPhone 4S |
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| 1TB 2.66 GHz C2D Mac mini Server | 32GB 3G Black iPad 2 | Apple TV 2 | 256GB 1.8 GHz i7 11" Macbook Air | 16GB Black iPhone 4S |
Reply
post #26 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

With a Blu-ray drive!

And it will be delivered to you by a swimsuit model riding a pink unicorn!
post #27 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

That would be hot actually. I would totally have to have that on my phone.
post #28 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

With a Blu-ray drive!

And it will be delivered to you by a swimsuit model riding a pink unicorn!

Ewww no! Blu-ray is YUCK!
post #29 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

With a Blu-ray drive!

And it will be delivered to you by a swimsuit model riding a pink unicorn!

I take it that you find all of the above (incl. dual boot w. Android) appealing on some level, yet unattainable.
post #30 of 40
I, personally, believe that Apple will sell 60 million iPads in CY 2011.

If the iPad 2 has Thunderbolt, as I hope it does -- it means that the iPad 2 can be used conjoined with a Mac as a co-peripheral.

This opens up many possibilities beyond consumer use.

For example the, iPad could be used as a powerful, inexpensive graphics tablet (with fingers or a stylus). for artists, photo editing, CAD, video editing.

Another, similar use would be as a powerful, inexpensive multitouch control surface (buttons, sliders, knobs, etc.) for sound and video editing/presentation.

This would be a natural for the pros -- if Apple were to support the capability in the next release (soon) of Final Cut and Logic.

It could easily be supported with iLife and iWork -- everyone from the home user to the prosumer to the pro could use the iPad as a graphics tablet/control surface for a Mac.

Think of the possibilities in medicine, science, business presentations, sports (telestrating)...


I may need to rethink my 60 million iPad estimate --- it may be too low!
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
post #31 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

I take it that you find all of the above (incl. dual boot w. Android) appealing on some level, yet unattainable.

Actually, having my iPad delivered by a swimsuit model sounds appealing.

Blu-ray and dual-boot Android? Bleech.

I have no real opinion about pink unicorns.
post #32 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I, personally, believe that Apple will sell 60 million iPads in CY 2011.

If the iPad 2 has Thunderbolt, as I hope it does -- it means that the iPad 2 can be used conjoined with a Mac as a co-peripheral.

This opens up many possibilities beyond consumer use.

For example the, iPad could be used as a powerful, inexpensive graphics tablet (with fingers or a stylus). for artists, photo editing, CAD, video editing.

Another, similar use would be as a powerful, inexpensive multitouch control surface (buttons, sliders, knobs, etc.) for sound and video editing/presentation.

To be honest, the applications you describe do not require 20 jiggerbits! USB is more than fast enough for that sort of stuff.

C.
post #33 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

I only speak from the point of view of the consumer.

I've never seen commodity technology that didn't suck.
Once manufacturers struggle to extract a 5% margin, they give up trying.

C.
post #34 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Actually, having my iPad delivered by a swimsuit model sounds appealing.

Be careful what you wish for...

post #35 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

To be honest, the applications you describe do not require 20 jiggerbits! USB is more than fast enough for that sort of stuff.

C.

You are right!

I didn't elaborate on the conjoined co-peripheral in my post.

One difference is the graphics tablet -- the iPad would display the area of the image/video CAD drawing being worked on -- while the Mac display would show the overall view. You zoom (ah, almost typed Xoom) in on the image on the iPad and manipulate it on the iPad with fingers or stylus -- the results show on the Mac display, as well,

Also, I assume you will have the ability to drag and drop files, quickly, between the Mac and iPad.

So you prepare your image/video/drawing/blueprint/presentation on the iPad-Mac, then drag the results to the iPad, take that to the client, give a one-on-one preso or AirPlay to the AppleTV/HDTV in the meeting/board room.
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #36 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post

I've never seen commodity technology that didn't suck.
Once manufacturers struggle to extract a 5% margin, they give up trying.

C.

Any mature technology is a commodity. I guess your electricity sucks. They don't make those electrons any more the way they used to.
post #37 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Apple needs to sell the crap out of the iPad 2 to shut up the pundits with their ridiculous banter about Android tablets taking huge amounts of market share from the iPad. If Apple can sell 6 million iPads to every 1 million Android tablets, that will keep Apple well in the lead in mind-share alone. Apple needs to get some cloud hook that consumers absolutely cannot resist and won't even consider buying an Android tablet. Every time a new Android tablet is introduced, Apple needs to counter with some offer that will knock the legs out from under that particular Android tablet. If Apple can do that for another year maybe rival Android vendors will realize that the tablet business isn't viable for them and most of them will just give up.

Maybe the iPad 2 will merely offer a processor speed-bump, added cameras and hopefully the same battery life as the iPad 1 in a thinner case. If the display quality is kept high, consumers should still take to it. I hope they're already starting to camp out in front of Apple retail stores. I'd like to see these Android tablet dominance rumors squashed as quickly as possible.

To be fair - most analysts are still going with Apple to hold 60-80% of the market this year. It is the blowhard, biased fandroid and wintard pundits and uninformed commenters who are trying to drum up support for their "iPad is to tablets as Mac is to Windows" marketshare BS. We all know it to be false but they keep on trying. iPad 2 selling by the bucketload won't change them - they'll just come up with an excuse as always and continue pedalling their rubbish.
post #38 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

There have been so few rumors this time around I don't know what to expect.



There were not many rumors last time, other than the big one that Apple was making a tablet, and look how it went.

Fact is, there are folks out there that will buy the latest and greatest iToy because it is the latest and greatest. That will be easily a third of the sales. Then there's the folks that waited because they still believe the old axiom about never being a first run product as it is sure to be a lemon.

Plus more and more businesses and schools. Now that all the major publishers are in the ibook store and even more of the textbook companies are going etext, schools are wanting ipads. But they can't just go out tomorrow and buy them. They have to write proposals, raise funds etc. So that puts them ready to buy in the summer. So that could boost numbers


As for the analysts, they are just guessing. Some will guess high because they want to put out the notion that Apple will keep the whole 90%. Others will guess lower so they don't look dumb if the market share falls, so they go somewhere between 50-75%. In the end they will all likely be wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Dual boot w/ Android!

Are you trying to kill Steve.

on the plus side, it would be a major unexpected coronary event and not the cancer that did it. So all the naysayers would be a little wrong


Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

With a Blu-ray drive!

And it will be delivered to you by a swimsuit model riding a pink unicorn!

I can see that ad now

"Hi, I'm an ipad" accompanied by this years Sport Illustrated Model of the Year

"Hi I'm a (whatever)" accompanied by Steve Ballmer in a bikini

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #39 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

6M in the first quarter?

So much for glass production problems limiting supply.

That 6.5M in the first quarter includes sales of the current iPad.
post #40 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Apple needs to sell the crap out of the iPad 2 to shut up the pundits with their ridiculous banter about Android tablets taking huge amounts of market share from the iPad. If Apple can sell 6 million iPads to every 1 million Android tablets, that will keep Apple well in the lead in mind-share alone. Apple needs to get some cloud hook that consumers absolutely cannot resist and won't even consider buying an Android tablet. Every time a new Android tablet is introduced, Apple needs to counter with some offer that will knock the legs out from under that particular Android tablet. If Apple can do that for another year maybe rival Android vendors will realize that the tablet business isn't viable for them and most of them will just give up.

Maybe the iPad 2 will merely offer a processor speed-bump, added cameras and hopefully the same battery life as the iPad 1 in a thinner case. If the display quality is kept high, consumers should still take to it. I hope they're already starting to camp out in front of Apple retail stores. I'd like to see these Android tablet dominance rumors squashed as quickly as possible.

There are plenty of things that Apple could add to improve the device over time. However, I think the focus for the next release after iPad2 will be a high-res display - nothing would stand out more in a side-by-side comparison at Best Buy. People would look at the iPad's screen and say "I'll take that". And, with its ability to prepay, Apple could tie up most of the production so that competitors would not be able to offer a competing product.
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