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Apple's iPad 2 launch predicted to have stronger sales but shorter lines

post #1 of 68
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Initial sales of the iPad 2 are expected to surpass the first-generation device, but numerous new points of distribution for Friday's launch are predicted to dilute lines of people.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray noted Tuesday that the original iPad launched at 221 U.S. Apple retail stores and most of Best Buy's about 1,100 American stores last year. The iPad 2 will debut with much greater availability, at more than 10,000 stores of retail partners in addition to 236 current Apple retail stores.

The iPad will also go on sale in the U.S. Friday at Walmart, Target, and AT&T and Verizon stores. Munster expects the new model to outsell its predecessor, which reached a million sales in just 28 days.

"Generally, the length of the lines at Apple retail stores on launch day have been a helpful early indication of demand," Munster wrote in a note to investors. "However, factors like online pre-orders, simultaneous international launches, weather, timing in the day and the day of the week can all impact a consumer's willingness to go stand in line, but may not necessarily be indicative of immediate purchase intentions."

Apple's launch and expansion of the iPad 2 will occur much faster than with the original iPad. Both the Wi-Fi-only and 3G-capable models will be available for purchase from day one, as opposed to 2010, when the 3G model launched a month later in the U.S.



International expansion will occur more quickly too, as Apple plans to have the iPad 2 available in 27 countries in the first two weeks. Last year, iPad shortages forced Apple to delay the international launch of its touchscreen tablet by a month.

Munster has predicted that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads in the device's launch quarter. That would easily best the 3.27 million iPads it sold in the same frame one year ago.

He also sees sales of the iPad 2 increasing to 5.6 million in its first full quarter of availability. During the company's fourth fiscal quarter of last year, it sold 4.19 million of the first-generation iPad.
post #2 of 68
I think a lot of people are missing out on the cheapness of an upgrade for those of us who will sel the original iPad ( most).

Most of last years 15M will upgrade, and the cost is just - if we stay with the same equivalent model - the cost of the depreciation of last years model. That seems to be about $200.
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post #3 of 68
The "event lines" and early shortages generate free press and consumer excitement, but they can quickly become overplayed. I'm will be happy if Apple has the stock for a big intro...

...of course, if they have such strong demand that they sell out of even their boldest internal prediction, well, that would bee cool too!
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post #4 of 68
Shorter lines? Apple is doomed!

(At least, so will go the tech headlines......)
post #5 of 68
Where does everyone bet the shortest lines will be? Target seems like a good candidate. I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.
post #6 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Shorter lines? Apple is doomed!

(At least, so will go the tech headlines......)

That's what happened with the Verizon iphone cause 9/10 of folks were buying online.

So they cut that to the day off, meaning you won't get it until more like Monday and hope that most folks will just come into the store. Target et al never have as much as the Apple stores do.
So folks rarely line up there. Or they do, within the first hour the store is sold out and off folks go to the Apple store hoping to get lucky

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post #7 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

Where does everyone bet the shortest lines will be? Target seems like a good candidate. I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.

I'm thinking Target, too. Not sure why...just seems lower profile. For some reason I imagine there might not even be lines at stores other than Apple. It's usually the fans who line up...(like me)...not the normal people, and I'd expect a huge proportion of apple fans to line up at Apple (which is why I won't be going there).
post #8 of 68
Has anyone seen anything on a launch time for Target, Best Buy, etc.?

Will it be 5 p.m. -- same as the Apple retail stores?
post #9 of 68
Quote:
Munster has predicted that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads in the device's launch quarter.

Hell, 7 million people will buy iPad 2 just so they can use the SmartCover.
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- Michael Lille -
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post #10 of 68
Screw the whole line thing. it is overplayed like someone mentioned before me.
To much perception pimping.
post #11 of 68
My biggest concern is 18 SKUs!

I want the 32GB WiFi in Black.
I'm sorry we only have the 64GB Verizon in white left.
I think it is going to lead to a lot of frustration while supplies are constrained.
post #12 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by dick applebaum View Post

hell, 7 million people will buy ipad 2 just so they can use the smartcover. :d

7m + 1. :d
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

I think a lot of people are missing out on the cheapness of an upgrade for those of us who will sel the original iPad ( most).

Most of last years 15M will upgrade, and the cost is just - if we stay with the same equivalent model - the cost of the depreciation of last years model. That seems to be about $200.

I don't know that the average consumer is used to selling old electronics, most get passed down or thrown out... not put on eBay or Craigslist. That said I just sold my iPad 1 and look forward to the 2!
post #14 of 68
Quote:
I'm thinking Target, too. Not sure why...just seems lower profile. For some reason I imagine there might not even be lines at stores other than Apple. It's usually the fans who line up...(like me)...not the normal people, and I'd expect a huge proportion of apple fans to line up at Apple (which is why I won't be going there).

Has there been any confirmation that any other distribution point other than the Apple retail stores will have actual stock on hand on Friday?
post #15 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

The "event lines" and early shortages generate free press and consumer excitement, but they can quickly become overplayed. I'm will be happy if Apple has the stock for a big intro...

...of course, if they have such strong demand that they sell out of even their boldest internal prediction, well, that would bee cool too!

And last year's shortages were due, in part, to Apple really not knowing how strong the demand would be since it was an entirely new product. They wouldn't want to make 10s of millions of them and then find out they had another "hobby" on their hands. Their demand models should be much better this time around.
post #16 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Porchland View Post

Has anyone seen anything on a launch time for Target, Best Buy, etc.?

Will it be 5 p.m. -- same as the Apple retail stores?

Haven't seen anything on this, however I'm assuming they would all follow the 5:00 time that the Apple Stores are going by.
post #17 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by canyonblue737 View Post

I don't know that the average consumer is used to selling old electronics, most get passed down or thrown out... not put on eBay or Craigslist. That said I just sold my iPad 1 and look forward to the 2!

Yeah, well most get given away. However with the rise of Gazelle.com, etc. this is becoming very common.
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post #18 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.

Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.
post #19 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.

LOL, so now they have magical insta-shipping technology? I don't think so.
post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.

apple.com shows ordering starting on the 11th.
post #21 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

LOL, so now they have magical insta-shipping technology? I don't think so.

LOL, they always ship the day before and products arrive on doorsteps on launch day. LOL nice try. Welcome to the site though.

It appears that there will be no pre-orders for the iPad 2 though. When pre-orders are available, they always arrive on launch day.
post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Has there been any confirmation that any other distribution point other than the Apple retail stores will have actual stock on hand on Friday?

Now that you mention it, I suppose I am just assuming. Even the Best Buy website indicates "coming soon."
post #23 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

LOL, they always ship the day before and products arrive on doorsteps on launch day. LOL nice try. Welcome to the site though.

It appears that there will be no pre-orders for the iPad 2 though. When pre-orders are available, they always arrive on launch day.

This response is severely retarded. Apple is not going to take online orders until the 11th. Go look at their site.
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

LOL, so now they have magical insta-shipping technology? I don't think so.

I think his joke was simply referencing the fact that many people (including myself), received their iphone 4's one day before "release day."
post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol77 View Post

I think his joke was simply referencing the fact that many people (including myself), received their iphone 4's one day before "release day."

That's fine, but the problem is that there is no pre-order for iPad 2. They aren't taking orders until March 11. He apparently does not realize that, and yet he manages to be very condescending.
post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

My biggest concern is 18 SKUs!

I want the 32GB WiFi in Black.
I'm sorry we only have the 64GB Verizon in white left.
I think it is going to lead to a lot of frustration while supplies are constrained.

yup how much stock of each is available and which places.
Im debating where to go too. If I had some patience, I would just order and wait... but Ive waited long enough dang it!

Some questions if anyone knows -

Has it been stated that 3g models will be available at all locations?
Is the verizon plan month to month like ATT? No hidden fees?
I don't want to sign up for monthly(want the GPS more than anything), but if I do... IMO Verizon 'in general' has better coverage.

Is the GPS chip in CDMA chip any better or worse than the GSM chip?
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post #27 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Yeah, well most get given away. However with the rise of Gazelle.com, etc. this is becoming very common.

Didn't Target' say they are doing a buy back too? I expect the price to fall for the initial on-slaught.
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post #28 of 68
"International expansion will occur more quickly too, as Apple plans to have the iPad 2 available in 27 countries in the first two weeks. Last year, iPad shortages forced Apple to delay the international launch of its touchscreen tablet by a month."

Actually this was only the first-step International roll-out. In many countires we had to wait until November (!) before the iPad 1 was released.
post #29 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

That's fine, but the problem is that there is no pre-order for iPad 2. They aren't taking orders until March 11. He apparently does not realize that, and yet he manages to be very condescending.

I think if you step back from it you'll see he was just making a casual joke...it was actually a bit of a compliment to Apple. I think arguing about when online ordering will take place is taking the joke a bit literally. The gist of what he meant was, "Apple delivers their orders quickly." I agree.
post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asst. Prof. View Post

That's why it is foolish to compare one product against another. Apple's sales are distributed among 24 different iPads. Companies like Motorola only make one - so it is easy for them to claim that they outsell the iPad, because they only compare the ones that are comparable to the Xoom, instead of all of them together.

That's why they should compare all of the 24 iOS tablets to Android tablets, and not to any one individually.

Incidentally, this is exactly the opposite argument people use for how iPhones and Android phones...

Really, it depends on what you are trying to compare.
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post #31 of 68
*not* be confirmed yet but several online apple forums / websites are saying that verizon will be charging a $35 activation fee each time you resign up for 3G service on their iPad which would greatly effect your choice of carrier if you planned on using the 3G on occasion like you can on a 3G AT&T iPad.
post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post

Where does everyone bet the shortest lines will be? Target seems like a good candidate. I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.

I wish we could pre-order it and have it ARRIVE on the 11th. But I guess a few days won't make too much of a difference.
post #33 of 68
Jesus Christ. Lines? Lines at retail are indicators of a bottleneck in retail operations. This isn't trying to get into a trendy club. It's retail sales. Know what happens when there are lines at a fast food restaurant? People take their business elsewhere. If I were Apple, I'd pioneer drive-thru sales. Or order online for pickup at the local store.

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post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Jesus Christ. Lines? Lines at retail are indicators of a bottleneck in retail operations. This isn't trying to get into a trendy club. It's retail sales. Know what happens when there are lines at a fast food restaurant? People take their business elsewhere. If I were Apple, I'd pioneer drive-thru sales. Or order online for pickup at the local store.

Lines at launch create news stories. New stories that make the average Joe or Jane say, "jee... look how many people want this, maybe I should want it too!?!" Later when Joe/Jane public goes in the lines are for the most part gone. Everyone is happy.
post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by canyonblue737 View Post

Lines at launch create news stories. New stories that make the average Joe or Jane say, "jee... look how many people want this, maybe I should want it too!?!" Later when Joe/Jane public goes in the lines are for the most part gone. Everyone is happy.

Steve is that you?
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post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

Steve is that you?

I have it from a reliable source that DaHarder is actually Steve...
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post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

Steve is that you?

Clearly, Suddenly Newton was addressing his post to JC can we presume that canyonblue is . . . Oh my! Is Steve JC?
post #38 of 68
Apple's iPad 1 predicted to have strong resale postings on Craigslist
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

I think a lot of people are missing out on the cheapness of an upgrade for those of us who will sel the original iPad ( most).

Most of last years 15M will upgrade, and the cost is just - if we stay with the same equivalent model - the cost of the depreciation of last years model. That seems to be about $200.

I don't have any data to back it up but I'm confident that nowhere near "most" buyers of iPads will sell them to upgrade. The average consumer does not sell stuff via eBay, Craig's list of what have you. I'd be surprised if much more than 10% of the original iPads are resold in the first year. Lots of people will buy iPad 2s and simply pass their iPad classic to a family member.
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Hell, 7 million people will buy iPad 2 just so they can use the SmartCover.

Nice to see that one of us "old guys" gets it right ... first time out.
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