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JP Morgan: Apple's iPad 2 could cause 'bubble burst' for rival tablets - Page 2

post #41 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paroxysm View Post

Maybe I'm reading something into your post that you didn't intend, but is it your assertion that the Great Recession the world has experienced is somehow Obama's fault?

If a certain news channel (stretching the definition of the term there slightly) says it is then it must be true ... right?
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From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
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post #42 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I am very curious to see how the tablet market develops over the next year.

I know a lot of Android partisans are confident that Android based tablets will "take over" soon enough, "just like they did with phones." But the tablet market is different from the phone market in several key ways:

--Most tablets won't be sold with subsidies, so they'll have to compete at their actual retail price. Apple is clearly doing very well here.

--Therefore they won't have cell carriers as a point of distribution, and will have to compete for shelf space at consumer electronic retailers (most of whom do a very poor job of providing the customer of any sense of what the user experience might be like, putting non-functional or poorly maintained models up for display). Again, Apple has a huge advantage in being able to use their own retail stores to show off iPads to their best advantage, not to mention their relatively controlled presentation at Best Buy. Not to mention Target, Walmart, et al. Apple probably has the largest retail exposure of any CE company, at this point.

--More generally, the explosion of Android handsets is pretty easily explainable as a combination of steep subsidies, ubiquity, and the general growth of the smartphone market (which Apple of course created the demand for in the first place). I think it's a mistake to assume that, just because lots and lots of people have gone into the cell store to get a new phone on contract and been steered to an Android device, that there will be any similar mechanism in play for tablets. People aren't going to go to the cell store because they "need" a tablet (only to discover that 90% of what's available is running Android), they're going to go to Best Buy or Walmart or Target because they want a tablet. And in every one of those places there are going to be iPads, at as good or better prices, probably in better working order. And then beyond that all those Apple stores with iPads being shown in the best possible light.

We'll see, of course, but I think Android fans looking for a repeat of the phone ramp-up are going to be disappointed.

Kinda looks like they did figure out Andriods virtual success and went very very aggressive with retail partnerships
post #43 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

Thanks for the clarification. Now that you mentioned Xoom, I am not that convinced that it is really technically superior because it has this and that.

One can place a six-cylinder engine and all sorts of advanced gadgetry on a Hyundai, but it would be still a Hyundai and could not compare to a BMW or Mercedes Benz or even Toyota, at least for now.

I used Hyandai, as an example, because I read that it was technically much improved compared to its forebears in the 1980s, I believe when it was first introduced in the American market. Considering how much South Korean economy and technology have advanced, Americans and Western companies must not think that these Asian companies, technologies and products would remain inferior, forever.

That being said, to go back to the Xoom, it is telling that the Xoom was not able to deliver what Motorola considered be the differentiating factors of Xoom:

Flash software and the mantra, Apple iOS products are inherently inferior because allegedly most websites use Flash, and the iOS products could not. I debunked the fallacy of this argument from Adobe, and from Apple/Steve Jobs haters/detractors (so I would not go into it).

Even if it is true, since the Xoom, as sold, has no functioning flash, then it must not be able to view all those alleged 90% websites -- just like all iOS.



Motorola also was not able to deliver an operational 4G technology for existing Xoom already on sale. So, until it can actually activate the 4G, all existing Xoom buyers do not have anything technology superior to 3G.

High definition screen? What good is a superior screen resolution if you cannot view 90% of the alleged unviewable website without a Flash. It's like having an expensive telescope but you have no view of the sky because all you window views are blocked.

So, what else could it do better than Apple, in terms of website viewing? Superior applications, and games, and others perhaps? Oh wait, the Xoom does not have many Apps, so those poor Xoom buyers even have less to do that those poor iOS who supposedly could not view the alleged 90% websites that could not run properly without Flash. At least the iOS has a selection from supposedly mostly crappy 65K Apps.

So, what is left among the purported features of Xoom that makes it technically superior to iPad2,

Just to reiterate my point in the previous post, and rephrase it, current batches of iPad killers may be unable to compete now, and i doubt that anyone of them could beat the iPad, at least for the period 11 March 2011 to 11 March 2012. If anyone is bold enough to think otherwise, I placed a challenge to anyone who thinks this is not the case.

Having stated so, this current lopsided competition must not be viewed as though everyone else would fold, just like that and cede the market to Apple. We really don't know what will happen in the long run.

As a long time Apple products user, I hope Apple will stay very competitive, if not at the top, as it did with the iPod.




I have a gut instinct that the iPad will do very well last year, I even challenged TechStud on a bet, but he was just a windbag who wavers when money is placed on the table to back one's predictions. I am a pretty sure that no tablet is going to beat the sales of the iPad2 during the period 11 March 2011- 11 March 2012.

Bur, what I would not know, nor attempt to do, is make solid predictions. There are too many variables. The existing production line for the iPad has been strained. From what I read, they are banking on the new manufacturing plants in another city entirely to bolster the production. The bulk of sales of Apple products are being sold outside of the US. I doubt any of those analysts really have that much global research to understand purchasing patterns in other countries.

So, I won't say, below 40 million or higher. But, be a person of honor. Can you please show us a photo of you grounding your device and actually eating it, please, in case Apple does not sell above 40 million. *grins*


CGC

Get a grip on yourself, for crying out loud. Knock off the bedroom expert antics and look at reality for 2 minutes. No one cares about Flash, they care about nice products, which the iPad is. I couldn't care less about a single website using Flash and there is not one damn thing that I will ever miss because of it. Neither will anyone else.

3 epic whining paragraphs, is just unbelievable. If you don't like it, don't buy it, and for the love of god, shut up about it! No one cares.
post #44 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

http://store.apple.com/us/browse/hom...co=MjEzODE4NzQ
True. The iPad is $399 for 16GB Wi-Fi version .

iPad 2, I said.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #45 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Get a grip on yourself, for crying out loud. Knock off the bedroom expert antics and look at reality for 2 minutes. No one cares about Flash, they care about nice products, which the iPad is. I couldn't care less about a single website using Flash and there is not one damn thing that I will ever miss because of it. Neither will anyone else.

3 epic whining paragraphs, is just unbelievable. If you don't like it, don't buy it, and for the love of god, shut up about it! No one cares.

You seem to be replying to someone who wrote the exact opposite of what he did, in every particular. Have we entered a quantum entanglement with the Bizarro World, or has the Tholian Web broken down the barrier between realities?
post #46 of 89
While I wouldn't call myself an Android 'fanboy', I do really like the platform. About a year and a half ago I switched from an iPhone to a droid and haven't looked back. I really like widgets, their notification system, and a few other features that for me are preferable to iOS.

I do have a 1st gen iPad that I use daily, and absolutely love. When the details on the iPad 2 were announced I had a choice to make: bonus money was burning a hole in my pocket, and which tablet would I spend it on: a Motorola Xoom or an iPad 2?

With my appreciation for Android the Xoom had a natural leg up in that it would have the notification system I prefer, and I think widgets on a tablet format would be fantastic. Having more memory would be a big plus, and I am not as worried about the app selection because I've seen the Android market grow by leaps and bounds, and there are tons of great apps out there, many of which should scale well for the Xoom. (This is a case when the "fragmentation" of the Android market can help: more apps are smart about finding out the screen size they're running on to adjust appropriately.)

Having said all that, I'll be getting an iPad 2 this Friday. First of all, as someone who still reads most ebooks on a Kindle, I have an appreciation for thin and light, and the iPad 2 has a definite advantage there.

Second, while I do have faith some good stuff will come out of the Android market eventually, there are just so many amazingly great apps on the iPad I'd be hard pressed to give them up. (I feel much more attached to my various iPad apps then I ever did to any of my iPhone apps, as good as those could be.)

Third, there's price. Enough said on that.

Fourth, seeing things like the Xoom will have Flash support, but not quite yet; the Xoom will have SD card support, but not quite yet; the Xoom will be LTE compatible, but not quite yet and oh by the way when you do want it you'll have to send the tablet away for a week. This screams NOT YET READY to me, and doesn't give me the warm fuzzies. Reading initial reviews has not allayed any fears that it is still going to be rough sailing for the first few months.

So, even though I tend to "lean Android" these days, I'm staying with the iPad for at least one more generation, and am very much looking forward to my new purchase on Friday. It'll be getting LOTS of use.
post #47 of 89
One key difference here is Apple pretty much created this market, it is able to get out in front like it did with the iPods and leave the competition for dust. The smart phone market is very different, for one it was already there and highly competitive. Also poor experiences and cheep phones were the norm, so Android has been able to flourish in that market in way that will be more difficult in the tablet market.
post #48 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


Let's not forget for example, that Apple is very dependent on Asian (China, Taiwan, Japan and Korea) techno-industrial empire. All it would take is a Chinese who has the vision akin to Steve Jobs, or some other builders of current multi-nationals. Unlike their parents, many Chinese of the elite classs have been educated or lived and traveled extensively in the Western countries. Even Steve Jobs have been influence by Asian culture in terms of his easthetics.

CGC

Thank you for one of the most thought-provoking comments I've ever read on AI.

bob
post #49 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asst. Prof. View Post

We better hope not. If they are, then in a couple of years iOS will have less than 10% of the market, and the ecosystem for Android will be like the ecosystem for Windows.

But the tablet market is nothing like the PC market.

Very true. Everybody remembers the piratical antics by which Microsoft took over the desktop market, but there was a prerequisite to that. It never would have happened if IBM hadn't first, through a combination of arrogance and stupidity, inadvertently created an open hardware architecture. There's nothing like that in the tablet market and in my opinion there never will be.

The music player segment is instructive. Apple entered a market with any number of competing products, some of them probably actually ahead of the iPod on specs. The ease of use of the iPod (and the iTunes store) steamrolled them. Even with various tries to unseat their dominance, notably by Microsoft, they still own at least 3/4 of the market. Now look at the tablet market. Yes, I know people have been selling tablet computers for a long time, but it's fair to say that the attempt to create demand for such a product was a total failure. Apple released the iPad and it's selling like hotcakes, and the app store already existed and was a huge success. How could they do worse in this market than they did with music players, where they had worthy and established competition? The game's over before it started.
post #50 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I am very curious to see how the tablet market develops over the next year.

I know a lot of Android partisans are confident that Android based tablets will "take over" soon enough, "just like they did with phones."

These "partisans" are delusional. Android has taken over the smartphone market? Right. There are more cheap phones running the Android OS. This time around, unlike the Windows "takeover", the raw numbers mean almost nothing.
post #51 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

What % is the cut off point for owning the tablet market?

I would say something like the iPod's hold on portable music player market, and sustain it for several years. Existing competition would drop out because the small revenue and lack of profit couldn't justify continued spending to develope a competitive product, and new comers wouldn't have the engineering knowhow and market recognition to make significant penetration. Then the battle will be over, and market become Apple dominated at both top and middle level, leaving the thin margined bottom level for several small players to fight among each other.
post #52 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aeolian View Post

It was Sony's Beta that was FAR better than VHS. That's why people had their money on HD-DVD this past time around. I think Sony won this recent one because they included a Blu-ray player in every new game console that was updated frequently.

Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt though license wise...

which is one of the reason Apple is not including Blu-ray.

another is that Apple and Jobs see that storage media will eventually be replaced by all downloadable content.

Another is iTunes.
post #53 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

If the Motorola Xoom and HP TouchPad are Apple's best competitors then they have nothing to worry about. The Xoom was half-baked and the TouchPad is a carbon copy of the 1st generation iPad. When it arrives in the summer it'll be about a year too late. The Ars Technica review of the Xoom makes me think Android 3.0 was as rushed to the market as the Xoom itself. Maybe the really real competition arrives with the Android 3.1 tablets.

yeah, maybe we all reconvene this time next year for another go at iPad competition....this year seems to be a wash.
post #54 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capnbob View Post

I think this is quite possible... the only way to compete with Apple's economies of scale is to buy big. However, if the product is as lackluster as the Xoom (great specs, poor experience)

I somewhat disagree with this. I dont think the Xoom has great specs, I think they some great specs, but have dropped the ball in so many other spec areas that make the experience bad. Besides no LTE card (which will require the consumer to ship to Moto on their dime and wait 8(?) weeks for it to be returned), a non-functioning SD card, and no Flash, they also use a crappy display panel type, even though the PPI is a little higher than the iPads PPI. I think its clear Apple didnt think a tablet would work until they could use an LCD with a great viewing angle, which to them turned out to be IPS. How long would the Xoom last if it had a decent backlight and display panel? At least Asus and others are using IPS panels.


Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

It's understandable. The competitors only had about 20 years to think about it. Just give them a little more time. It's good for them that the price of copy machines have gone down in price since then!

</sarcasm></rolleyes>

post #55 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm not sure what 100% means here but if iPad 2 lives up to expectations I could see them moving 5 million a month. Sounds like a lot but world wide it should be very possible. Unfortunately I think sales will be limited by production capacity for months.

I agree with the 50 million iPad 2 production goal in these next 10 months. But I don't see supply ever matching demand all year long. I think if you don't get one this weekend and perhaps even Friday that you will have to be part of a never ending queue for the rest of the year to get one.

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post #56 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Get a grip on yourself, for crying out loud. Knock off the bedroom expert antics and look at reality for 2 minutes. No one cares about Flash, they care about nice products, which the iPad is. I couldn't care less about a single website using Flash and there is not one damn thing that I will ever miss because of it. Neither will anyone else.

3 epic whining paragraphs, is just unbelievable. If you don't like it, don't buy it, and for the love of god, shut up about it! No one cares.

i sense that cgc still has milk on his upper lip and is learning new things in class that are just blowing him away and he's just eager to share his amazing new-found knowledge with us. Also, today's youth, raised on Will Ferrell, Adam Sandler and Judd Apatow, are kind of irony impaired. Heck, he called out some poster for employing hyperbole by saying "no one will buy Android."
post #57 of 89
I think iOS5 will be critical.

There are a few minor gaps in the iOS platform which Google has exploited (notifications being the elephant in the room). Apple can absolutely kill Android with a nice new iOS release in a month.
post #58 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Get a grip on yourself, for crying out loud. Knock off the bedroom expert antics and look at reality for 2 minutes. No one cares about Flash, they care about nice products, which the iPad is. I couldn't care less about a single website using Flash and there is not one damn thing that I will ever miss because of it. Neither will anyone else.

3 epic whining paragraphs, is just unbelievable. If you don't like it, don't buy it, and for the love of god, shut up about it! No one cares.

Wow, that's unnecessarily harsh!
post #59 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by karmamule View Post

While I wouldn't call myself an Android 'fanboy', I do really like the platform. About a year and a half ago I switched from an iPhone to a droid and haven't looked back. I really like widgets, their notification system, and a few other features that for me are preferable to iOS.

I do have a 1st gen iPad that I use daily, and absolutely love. When the details on the iPad 2 were announced I had a choice to make: bonus money was burning a hole in my pocket, and which tablet would I spend it on: a Motorola Xoom or an iPad 2?

With my appreciation for Android the Xoom had a natural leg up in that it would have the notification system I prefer, and I think widgets on a tablet format would be fantastic. Having more memory would be a big plus, and I am not as worried about the app selection because I've seen the Android market grow by leaps and bounds, and there are tons of great apps out there, many of which should scale well for the Xoom. (This is a case when the "fragmentation" of the Android market can help: more apps are smart about finding out the screen size they're running on to adjust appropriately.)

Having said all that, I'll be getting an iPad 2 this Friday. First of all, as someone who still reads most ebooks on a Kindle, I have an appreciation for thin and light, and the iPad 2 has a definite advantage there.

Second, while I do have faith some good stuff will come out of the Android market eventually, there are just so many amazingly great apps on the iPad I'd be hard pressed to give them up. (I feel much more attached to my various iPad apps then I ever did to any of my iPhone apps, as good as those could be.)

Third, there's price. Enough said on that.

Fourth, seeing things like the Xoom will have Flash support, but not quite yet; the Xoom will have SD card support, but not quite yet; the Xoom will be LTE compatible, but not quite yet and oh by the way when you do want it you'll have to send the tablet away for a week. This screams NOT YET READY to me, and doesn't give me the warm fuzzies. Reading initial reviews has not allayed any fears that it is still going to be rough sailing for the first few months.

So, even though I tend to "lean Android" these days, I'm staying with the iPad for at least one more generation, and am very much looking forward to my new purchase on Friday. It'll be getting LOTS of use.

Welcome back, karmamule! Seriously, though, very thoughtful comments!

Best
post #60 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac-sochist View Post

You seem to be replying to someone who wrote the exact opposite of what he did, in every particular. Have we entered a quantum entanglement with the Bizarro World, or has the Tholian Web broken down the barrier between realities?

Did you actually read my entire post? *grins* I rhink (s)he did not like that my post was long, and I understand. That said, while I like Apple, and I think Apple/Steve Jobs does not tend to underestimate its competitors, many analysts tend to have very shallow understanding of Asian tenacity. They may lose the round now but they would not simply fold, as the article implies. Many will just find a market to their product.

Quote:
Originally Posted by karmamule View Post

While I wouldn't call myself an Android 'fanboy'...

There's nothing incorrect about liking something. It is when someone likes something so much, it clouds their judgement and hate/reject anything different. I may not like the foundation of Google business philosophy -- seling my personal information -- but that did not prevent me from using some of their technologies of Google that I find very useful.

What I sensed in some of the postings of some is more a dislike/hate of Apple/Steve Jobs, and would tend to embrace "any" that would come along that is not Apple product. That you at least judge products on their merits says something about you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aeolian View Post

It was Sony's Beta that was FAR better than VHS. That's why people had their money on HD-DVD this past time around. I think Sony won this recent one because they included a Blu-ray player in every new game console that was updated frequently.

Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt though license wise...

That was the point, sometimes there are other factors that come into play that decide the fate of technologies. When I read the history of the Apple-Microsoft rivalry, maybe I am biased but I considered Steve Jobs/Apple to be the innovator.

Bill Gates has his own outstanding qualities, but he was more ruthless, and a more cunning businessman. He correctly predicted that it is in licensing the Microsoft software, and used IBM technical expertise to incubate the MIcrosoft OS. but retained exclusive right on the license. It did not do them bad too, to "borrow" some of the scripts of Apple, the only thing was that they got caught.

CGC
post #61 of 89
Enjoyed your comments CGC. I agree, China is position to follow in the footsteps of Japan, Korea, etc.

I remember when "made in Japan" was a sign of low quality. But as you say, it hasn't been that way for a very long time. I also, remember the Korean cars of the 1980's. It was said that if you wanted to make an emergency stop in a Hyundai, all you had to do was turn on the air conditioning. Again, that is no longer the case.

As far as China. I agree it's seems almost inevitable that they will surpass the US as far as manufacturing (this year, I believe) and may have the largest economy (GDP) as soon as 2025. It really should be no surprise, they were the world leader for 13 of the last 18 centuries.

Having said this, the US still has more Nobel prizes awarded and receives more patents than any other country in the world. 18 of the top 20 Universities are in the US. And although China has 1.3 Billion people (and will undoubtedly have more tomorrow), the US with only, 310 million can "draw" and does from the ~7 billion on the planet. It is still true a majority of the world's population would like to get to America.

Best
post #62 of 89
Apple has never been this aggressive in going after a market. For the first time, they really are trading profit margin for market-share with the iPad.

And I'll bet this has a halo effect on both the iPhone and the Mac. An IT guy where I work recently bought an iPad and followed it up with a Verizon iPhone. I was *shocked* that he did that (the IT people where I work are all Windows guys and DIY gearheads when it comes to PCs, so I would have expected him to either get a WP7 or android phone). If this guy ever buys a Mac (which I can't believe will happen), then Bill Gates might have to go ask for his money back from all those kids in Africa.
post #63 of 89
I would encourage everyone to view the iPad 2 keynote. Towards the end Steve volunteers the formula for success. All the other manufacturers have to do is follow it. He said, "we at Apple are convinced to have a winning product you have to design the software and the hardware together. Not have one company making hardware and another company making the software."

There it is. The only company that seems to have taken this advice is HP with the purchase of Palm for their WebOS. Jason Snell of MacWorld seems to be impressed with what he has seen so far of the WebOS that is.

HP may have missed the boat though, in that having to wait too long to produce a tablet and bring it to market. In tech a year is like a lifetime and it is awfully hard to get back on track. Just ask Sony, RIM and MS as far as WindowsMobile goes.

Best
post #64 of 89
I've been surprised by the iPad's success in vertical markets, i.e. business specific applications. My wife and I went to Carrabba's the other night and the hostesses had iPads to do something or other. And we've seen the stories about iPads being approved for use in cockpits. And all the pointy haired business types I know seem to be gaga for the iPad.

Windows based tablets have been around for YEARS, yet they never appeared "everywhere" like the iPad has.

Apple has a very nice development environment for iOS, a narrow product spread (as opposed to Windows' and Android's myriad hardware targets), and a well thought out UI.

Apple provides not just the widget (hardware), but a good software environment. In the handheld space, "it just works" (and keeps working) is very important. I don't think anyone else has that, and until they do, Apple will lead.

- Jasen.
post #65 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

There it is. The only company that seems to have taken this advice is HP with the purchase of Palm for their WebOS. Jason Snell of MacWorld seems to be impressed with what he has seen so far of the WebOS that is.

It'll be really interesting to see what HP comes up with. If they can do a reasonable App Store clone and have a decent development environment, I think they'll at least be able to compete in the vertical market space. I recall the Palm guys being pretty sharp. Maybe they can squeeze some novel "gotta have" app or feature out of WebOS. (Like a super awesome HP calculator emulator! )

- Jasen.
post #66 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

I wouldn't exactly use the term: "very aggressive". I would say 'aggressive'. If the iPad 2 came in at $399 for the 16GB Wi-Fi version, that would be "very aggressive".

Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

http://store.apple.com/us/browse/hom...co=MjEzODE4NzQ
True. The iPad is $399 for 16GB Wi-Fi version .

And refurbs (like new with warranties) from the Apple Refurbished Store are only $349. So figure millions of used iPad 1s of the 16GB Wi-Fi model will reach new second wave adopters (followers) for below $300. So the diffusion of Apple's tablet solution into the more cautious late adopters (laggards) as well as lower income (ultra laggards and economically challenged) market segments IS unfolding at a VERY aggressive price point and UNPRECEDENTED diffusion rate.

And none of the first generation challengers (posers) have this ecosystem of superior "old" Apple iPad tablets trickling into that part of the market they may be trying to target with inferior tech, no Eco system and certainly no "cool" factor at all. First adopters (innovators) of other brands may in fact be laughed at and derided by their peers for making such a foolish choice leading to an unprecedented wave of returns for refunds across the board leading retailers to stop buying these challengers' failed attempts.

No hyperbole. We are a part of an historical first in the history of technological diffusion speed.

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post #67 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyc View Post

Thank you for one of the most thought-provoking comments I've ever read on AI.

bob

At least someone did muddle through the post and got something out of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Enjoyed your comments CGC. I agree, China is position to follow in the footsteps of Japan, Korea, etc.

I remember when "made in Japan" was a sign of low quality. But as you say, it hasn't been that way for a very long time. I also, remember the Korean cars of the 1980's. It was said that if you wanted to make an emergency stop in a Hyundai, all you had to do was turn on the air conditioning. Again, that is no longer the case.

As far as China. I agree it's seems almost inevitable that they will surpass the US as far as manufacturing (this year, I believe) and may have the largest economy (GDP) as soon as 2025. It really should be no surprise, they were the world leader for 13 of the last 18 centuries.

Having said this, the US still has more Nobel prizes awarded and receives more patents than any other country in the world. 18 of the top 20 Universities are in the US. And although China has 1.3 Billion people (and will undoubtedly have more tomorrow), the US with only, 310 million can "draw" and does from the ~7 billion on the planet. It is still true a majority of the world's population would like to get to America.

Best

One basic flaw that I see in Asian techno-industrial empire in many of the Asian countries is that they are so dependent on export. The exact reverse can be said of the United States.

India from what I read seems to focus on "satyagraha", from the example of Mahatma Ghandi to defeat the British empire, as the foundation of its economic policy. Thus, while it does export and becoming the techno- research center for many Western multi-nationals, India also takes pains to foster and develop from within. It has the 'market" from within to do so. in terms of software I read that they embrace open-source initiatives, so that they are not too dependent on proprietary patents.

China is doing the same to an extent. And, with 1.3 billion people, just imagine the local market it can tap even with just a slight increase in per capita income.

In many parts of the world, China has replaced the United States as the "investor-capital" source. And, partly it is due the growing demand of a population that is incrementally improving in terms of economic prosperity.

Many in my family and relatives have had good relations with Chinese (mostly) and Korean businessmen. One of my relatives who now reside in Singapore, was mistaken as the owner of a restaurant there, for some reason. But, after she corrected the mis-impression, the visiting Chinese businessman was so impressed with her, she was hired as a representative for their export-import agro-chemical business while working at home takng care of her family. In just a few years, she has expanded her reach to a number of Asian and Western countries.

Chinese businessmen tend place a lot of faith on people they can trust, and quite a number in my family prospered (not filthy rich) from such symbiotic relationships.


CGC
post #68 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

People aren't going to go to the cell store because they "need" a tablet (only to discover that 90% of what's available is running Android), they're going to go to Best Buy or Walmart or Target because they want a tablet. And in every one of those places there are going to be iPads, at as good or better prices, probably in better working order. And then beyond that all those Apple stores with iPads being shown in the best possible light.

Do you think Google will bring a Nexus tab to market? Maybe they will copy Microsoft and open some Apple... I mean, Google stores too. That will be hilarious. I'm sure there will be one here in OC if they do. I can't wait.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #69 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

One can place a six-cylinder engine and all sorts of advanced gadgetry on a Hyundai, but it would be still a Hyundai and could not compare to a BMW or Mercedes Benz or even Toyota, at least for now.

I'd pick Hyundai/Kia over Toyota today. Toyota is cheapening features to increase profit - especially in their Lexus line.

Quote:
So, what is left among the purported features of Xoom that makes it technically superior to iPad2

I agree with this.

Quote:
The existing production line for the iPad has been strained. From what I read, they are banking on the new manufacturing plants in another city entirely to bolster the production. The bulk of sales of Apple products are being sold outside of the US. I doubt any of those analysts really have that much global research to understand purchasing patterns in other countries.

This is it in a nutshell - the only "governor" on Apple's growth at this point is how many they will be able to manufacture. Kind of like with the iPhone all along!

Apple owns the mobile market. Their vertical integration from design to selling and servicing can't be matched by anyone - not in this generation of products. In each generation, Apple increases the gap and siphons off more of the overall profit in each sector.

In order for someone to unseat them we are going to have to move to the next paradigm - "wearable" computers, human-integrated computers, cybernetics - whatever you want to call it. But for mobile, touchscreen devices it's going to be competition to see who is #2, #3, etc.
post #70 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Everyone, including myself, was caught off guard with how successful iPad 1 would be. Even with all the hype I think people are still under estimating how successful the iPad 2 will be. Apple might just own the entire portable computer market by the time iPad 3 rolls around. And this is coming from a Windows guy...

Sorry, I wasn't caught off guard, and someone else predicted 15 million and probably a lot of us thought that was about right.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I can't see anybody in their right mind buying a tablet if it's not called an iPad. Even though tablets are cheaper than most laptops and desktops, it still is a lot of money to most people, especially in these economic Obama times. And contrary to statements made by trolls, various fanboys and liars on the internet, people eventually vote with their wallets, and that's why the iPad is killing everybody else, and that's why it will continue to kill everybody

You just lost all your credibility with that Obama remark. See below.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paroxysm View Post

Maybe I'm reading something into your post that you didn't intend, but is it your assertion that the Great Recession the world has experienced is somehow Obama's fault?

On CGC's original post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyc View Post

Thank you for one of the most thought-provoking comments I've ever read on AI.

bob

And one more great insight:

Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

These cooperation and collaboration among Chinese, as "One People" is the reason why mainland China today is the second largest economic empire in the world. I do not think we would be alive to see it, but at the pace things are going in the United States (political gridlock coupled with extreme polarization). there is no "One America", I won't be surprised if China would displace the US as the number one economic power in the world within the second half of this century, if not sooner.

Don't discount the Koreans too.

The point here is that the competitors of Apple from these countries may not be doing as well now, but unlike Western companies, many Asian companies have the backing of their national industrialists and financial moguls, but also their people.

Let's not forget for example, that Apple is very dependent on Asian (China, Taiwan, Japan and Korea) techno-industrial empire. All it would take is a Chinese who has the vision akin to Steve Jobs, or some other builders of current multi-nationals. Unlike their parents, many Chinese of the elite classs have been educated or lived and traveled extensively in the Western countries. Even Steve Jobs have been influence by Asian culture in terms of his easthetics.

CGC

It's true the US has split into two highly polarized camps. People refer to a culture gap or even 'war' (so American to see it as a war), but really it seems more to be an evolutionary divide.

One group refuses to think globally, the other has evolved with the shrinking world and embraces the new view that America must interact and cooperate. As the one advances further, the other digs in its heels deeper.

Apple represents the advancing species. It not only sells appropriate consumer technology to an eager world (a first for an American company), but it sources expertise from around the world as well. Just look at the names on its patents.

We could have our own revolution in consciousness here, as is happening in North Africa and the Middle East, as a result of the ubiquity of mobile computers, but so far I haven't seen much evidence on this website. Still lots of cultural recalcitrants here.

So thanks for bringing up a new angle, CGC.
post #71 of 89
A lot of people on here really have been overdosing on Koolaid.

Imagine for a moment that the iPad2 was made by an unfashionable company like Dell, then make an objective comparison between it and the iPad, and other competing tablets.

When you take away the Apple aura, it doesn't look like such a huge step from the iPad, and what's more other tablets aren't so far off either. It may be the market leader at present, but to assume no other tablet will take market share is ludicrous.

The iPad is a device that will mostly eat into sales of other Apple mobile devices and some desktop sales.
post #72 of 89
With VMware View Client now working natively on the iPad and pushing Windows, is there a need for a Windows tablet?

iPad has become the infamous Windows tablet, before the Windows tablet has made it to market and assuming VMWare works as advertised, Apple may have just secured even more market share. (Although it appears it only works in the vacinity of your own computer network running Windows.) Hopefully, VMFusion will come out for the iPad to allow Windows use on the go.

Link: VMWare View Client
post #73 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I know a lot of Android partisans are confident that Android based tablets will "take over" soon enough, "just like they did with phones." But the tablet market is different from the phone market in several key ways:

Interesting comment here .. specifically the "take over soon" part. If other manufacturers have this goal in mind, they will fail. And most do think this way ... it's all about the sale. With Apple, it's all about the product and all about the user experience.

After Jobs returned to Apple, they executed a famous ad campaign: Think Different. Apple did this. No one else did.
post #74 of 89
The thing most commentators are missing is that Apple did not invent the tablet. As with the smart phone, they entered an existing market. Unlike the smart phone, no one had made a success of it before. Creating a thing in the same form factor as the iPad will not create a viable competitor. It will create yet another flop along the lines of all the previous attempts at making a tablet that flopped.

The tablet is a mature but unsuccessful market. Failed tablets go back at least 10 years. For a serious competitor to iPod to arise, it has to address the reasons that no one wanted tablets before. Apple's model doesn't translate automatically to other vendors because their closed ecosystem approach doesn't suit the open development models others are used to. That's not to say there is no other model; a rival product to be successful needs to find a way to accomplish Apple's positives: clean user experience, high reliability something you don't get on a warmed-over Windows or smart phone platform.

One of the key aspects of the iPod model, the notion of curated apps, can work just as well in a more open environment. A clean consistent user experience is a little harder than ensuring apps are well tested before they are certified as safe to use, but that can also be done in an open model.

Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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Philip Machanick creator of Opinionations and Green Grahamstown
Department of Computer Science, Rhodes University, South Africa

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post #75 of 89
Apple has an iPad 2 apps page up here. I suggest taking a look. In particular, look at iMovie and GarageBand, and how FaceTime and AirPlay are implemented.

Now, my question is: who is going to write apps with remotely this level of sophistication, polish and functionality for Android Tablets? Apple has been able to leverage the work they've done on iMovie and GarageBand to make these iPad apps, Android and Palm/HP and RIM have nothing like that. Creating something like this is a huge investment, does anything think that third party developers are going to put in the effort to bring forth an iMovie level app for the nascent Android tablet market?

Or even good old Pages. Call it limited all you want, but where's the Android word processing program with anything like its power and style? Where's the presentation creation software for Android of any description? Some folks want to talk about the limitations of those programs on the iPad while ignoring the fact that the competition has nothing at all that compares.

It's ironic, because it appears to me that some of the same people who disparage the iPad for being "just a media consumption device" or "toy" are simultaneously sanguine that an Android tablet that can access the usual roster of phone-centric type web apps, as well as a few marquee titles like Angry Birds, is well situated to compete with Apple. "How many Apps does anyone really need?" they say.

But here's Apple, pushing the iPad into desktop media creation areas. So the "toy" can edit movies and record, edit and mix multitrack music, while my Android tablet is supposed to be compelling because it has widgets and the home screen is loaded with info. In other words, a well executed media consumption and mobile communications device.

How many musicians are going to pick, say, a Xoom over an iPad once they get a look at GarageBand? How many budding directors who have seem iMovie? The Google services are all available on Android handsets, so what's the general case to be made for a tablet that replicates what my phone can do without bringing much additionally to the party? Do I really need to spend 6 or 7 hundred dollars to have a device that can give me weather updates and email and chat and some games? Because I thought that was what phones were for.
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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post #76 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpr1 View Post

While true, that the tapes were shorter, that was not the main reason that Beta lost the consumer war. The main reason was that Sony was short-sighted and refused to license their technology. JVC, on the other hand, licensed their VHS technology to anyone and everyone (even Sony, eventually). The price/feature competition amongst the VHS brands made it increasingly difficult for Sony to compete. Those who knew the difference still bought Betamax, but that market was too small to support continued production. And Betacam, a superior version of Betamax (with tapes running faster - only 30 minute cassettes) was the broadcast standard for many years.

Point of order. As nearly as I have been able to ascertain (and I did quite a bit of research on this subject years ago), JVC never licensed any VHS technology. They retained a few related hardware patents, but that's all. Try to find a copyright or patent notice any any VHS tape or device.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #77 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

...
Let's not forget for example, that Apple is very dependent on Asian (China, Taiwan, Japan and Korea) techno-industrial empire. All it would take is a Chinese who has the vision akin to Steve Jobs, or some other builders of current multi-nationals. Unlike their parents, many Chinese of the elite classs have been educated or lived and traveled extensively in the Western countries. Even Steve Jobs have been influence by Asian culture in terms of his easthetics.

CGC

I can tell you are a college freshman. You write like one. I know your sociology prof wants a 20-page paper next week, double-spaced, but on message boards, brevity is next to godliness.

I think you underestimate people's understanding of the competition from Asia. What you didn't mention is that in the early 90s people were asking when Japan would be #1. Kids were studying japanese in school. Japan was where China is now. And, now look at the Japanese! Mired in stagflation.

Anyhow, Japan didn't have it. They don't have the software chops or the creativity taught in schools to do it. What makes you think South Korea or China have it? BTW, why didn't you mention India?

By the way, my family is one of those Chinese families that fled the Communists in 1939 for Taiwan. Actually, contrary to what you wrote, back then, quite a few Chinese were educated in the West, as were my parents.
post #78 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

You just lost all your credibility with that Obama remark. See below.

It's true that I am not too impressed by Obama. As a matter of fact, I think that he's horrible. Sue me. Obama is the JooJoo tablet of Presidents.

post #79 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Apple has an iPad 2 apps page up here. I suggest taking a look. In particular, look at iMovie and GarageBand, and how FaceTime and AirPlay are implemented.

Now, my question is: who is going to write apps with remotely this level of sophistication, polish and functionality for Android Tablets? Apple has been able to leverage the work they've done on iMovie and GarageBand to make these iPad apps, Android and Palm/HP and RIM have nothing like that. Creating something like this is a huge investment, does anything think that third party developers are going to put in the effort to bring forth an iMovie level app for the nascent Android tablet market?

Or even good old Pages. Call it limited all you want, but where's the Android word processing program with anything like its power and style? Where's the presentation creation software for Android of any description? Some folks want to talk about the limitations of those programs on the iPad while ignoring the fact that the competition has nothing at all that compares.

It's ironic, because it appears to me that some of the same people who disparage the iPad for being "just a media consumption device" or "toy" are simultaneously sanguine that an Android tablet that can access the usual roster of phone-centric type web apps, as well as a few marquee titles like Angry Birds, is well situated to compete with Apple. "How many Apps does anyone really need?" they say.

But here's Apple, pushing the iPad into desktop media creation areas. So the "toy" can edit movies and record, edit and mix multitrack music, while my Android tablet is supposed to be compelling because it has widgets and the home screen is loaded with info. In other words, a well executed media consumption and mobile communications device.

How many musicians are going to pick, say, a Xoom over an iPad once they get a look at GarageBand? How many budding directors who have seem iMovie? The Google services are all available on Android handsets, so what's the general case to be made for a tablet that replicates what my phone can do without bringing much additionally to the party? Do I really need to spend 6 or 7 hundred dollars to have a device that can give me weather updates and email and chat and some games? Because I thought that was what phones were for.

Exactly, all the tech spec is BS unless it has the apps to harness it.
Since, it's an open OS then there must somebody who will invest in writing imovie, garage band, pages, keynotes etc .., with Ads as revenue.
post #80 of 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by samban View Post

Exactly, all the tech spec is BS unless it has the apps to harness it.
Since, it's an open OS then there must somebody who will invest in writing imovie, garage band, pages, keynotes etc .., with Ads as revenue.

I imagine that someone will write some kind of video editing software, or some kind of sound recording software.

But I question whether or not the ad supported model gives enough incentive for an independent developer to invest at the level necessary to create programs that actually compete with GarageBand and iMovie.

Apple has subsidized the development of those two programs as part of the value added proposition of its Mac platform. There are just a lot of programing hours and a lot of refinement along the way that have led to this point.

The software quality differential has always been apparent in the Mac vs. PC world, but the conventional wisdom has been that "good enough" carried the day given that PCs were cheaper and more broadly entrenched.

But why settle for good enough when the iPad is the same price or less? When its just as readily available, with more accessories and more software? "Openness" doesn't magically create great software or a great user experience, any more than it creates a financial incentive to make big, expensive to develop applications with deep functionality. Deep pockets and a willingness to invest heavily in a great, integrated user experience do that.

Google is willing to invest in anything that extends the reach of Google's advertising business-- i.e. online services. Developers are willing to invest in smaller apps with a quick pay-off, or games.

Again, who's going build a GarageBand for Android, on even anything close to GarageBand? And to the extent that that doesn't happen, what does that mean for the competitive fortunes of Android based tablets?
They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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They spoke of the sayings and doings of their commander, the grand duke, and told stories of his kindness and irascibility.
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