or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Up to 20% of original iPad buyers predicted to upgrade to Apple's iPad 2
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Up to 20% of original iPad buyers predicted to upgrade to Apple's iPad 2

post #1 of 44
Thread Starter 
Of the 15 million iPads sold by Apple in 2010, between 15 and 20 percent of those early adopters will upgrade to the iPad 2, one analyst believes.

Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets sees up to a fifth of original iPad buyers switching to the iPad 2 over the next 12 months. But most who buy an iPad 2 in 2011 will be new to the platform, and Abramsky expects Apple will sell 28 million of its touchscreen tablet in this calendar year.

He expects those sales to get off to a strong start this weekend, as Apple may sell more than 500,000 of the iPad 2 after it goes on sale today at 5 p.m. That would nearly double the 300,000 first-gen iPads sold on launch day last April.

The launch will also be bolstered by more than 10 times larger retail distribution, at nearly 10,000 stores, including Apple's retail outlets, Best Buy, Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Target and Walmart. The analyst said initial sales could exceed his estimates if available stock is greater than expected on launch weekend.

New buyers likely waited for the second-generation device, looking for upgrades from the initial product and also waiting to gauge the popularity of the tablet form factor, Abramsky believes. He sees the global tablet market growing to sales of 50 million devices in 2011, a number that would give Apple's estimated sales a 56 percent share of the worldwide market.

If Apple does take 56 percent of the market in 2011, that would be a decrease from the 83 percent of shipments Apple represented in 2010. But a new survey revealed this week also showed that most who plan to buy a tablet -- 82 percent -- said they will choose Apple's iPad.
post #2 of 44
and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!
post #3 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

and this is based on AT LEAST entire 3 minutes of moderate thought. a great way to do research! thanks!

Heh. Still, it will be interesting to see if the owners of a very new product are already prepared to upgrade.

There's an impact for Apple here, in terms of what happens to those original iPads. Many will be passed along to the kids, some donated, some will be sold at a discount on eBay.

Since these used iPads are, after all, practically new, their distribution (however its done) will definitely hinder sales of competing devices.

One way or another, Apple dominates this market.
post #4 of 44
I just sold my 16G wifi only on Craigslist for $300 and ordered a new one this am. After a week without it, what I miss most is reading on it, even though I still use my Kindle when I am out places. I can see the value of upgrading if only for the lighter form factor and speed of internet page loading. Hopefully video will be a nice feature.
post #5 of 44
I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.
post #6 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchAngel21x View Post

I will not be one of the 20% because I wanted the retina display.

You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.
post #7 of 44
I wonder what the percentage is of people don't ever plan to get any tablet?
post #8 of 44
20% sounds about right when you think of how many people are diehard Apple fanatics who have to have every latest and greatest gadget from Apple these days...
post #9 of 44
I spoke with the mgr at local Best Buy yesterday and confirmed that they would not sell till 5PM. The interesting bit though was that supposedly they had been promised that ALL stores would get 5 OF EACH model. 3 Mem configs * 3 radio configs = 9 models; 9 models * 2 colors = 18 SKUs * 5 each = 90 iPad2's * 5500 stores (?) = 495,000 iPads just for Best Buy. Now I know it came from some store mgr di@k (big store - but certainly not the regional mgr) but if that was what they had been promised (or even close) almost half million iPad2's for one outlet - No wonder WalMart only had 4 on hand.
post #10 of 44
Re the non Apple products. Why would anyone want to pay more for less. What Android vendors offer training sessions for new users and handholding such as helping you set up/move apps etc.
post #11 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pridon View Post

What Android vendors offer training sessions for new users and handholding such as helping you set up/move apps etc.

Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.
post #12 of 44
I thought I bought myself an iPad a year ago - that is until I made the mistake of showing my wife and daughter my cool new device. I get <10% time, way less. So I told my wife that today I was going to get MY iPad2 - here's hoping I get it for 50% of the time maybe.

BTW: I will be trying my luck at the Apple Store this evening. (fingers crossed and mumbling please have a 64G AT&T Black).
post #13 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.

It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.
post #14 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Helping somebody set up their android tablet with apps should be a fairly simple process, considering that there are virtually no apps for it.

But somebody does need to show them how to install an antivirus pkg & of course probably how to root it.
post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.

You beat me!
post #16 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.

Then return your ipad when you get an ios virus. Now what?


It's one thing to poke some fun and have a laugh, but don't cry when the truth bites your hand!
post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.

Are you talking about a future iPad with retina display, or that 20% of iPad owners will upgrade?

Or both?
post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

It is simple. Download an app, get a virus, return your Android tablet and get an iPad.

No no no. You've missed a bit. It's download an app, get a virus, download the fix, find out the fix is actually another virus, THEN return it.
post #19 of 44
I would expect upgraders to be in the 30-45% range, perhaps even higher, though this over the next couple of months. Many are aery adopters, so they will what the latest-greatest. And it is not like you just trash the old one. You hand it down to the kid, or sell it on Craigslist, etc.

This is a very compelling upgrade with the cams and very significant speed boost.
post #20 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOEW View Post

don't cry when the truth bites your hand!

What truth would that be? Apple's App store is closed, you know, the very thing that the fandroids like to whine, moan and complain about. Having a closed App store has it's advantages. The Apps actually have to go through an approval process and be approved by Apple.

This is in stark contrast to the Android market, where it's so open that anybody can release their junk there. And that includes the 50 malware infested programs that were recently discovered there.
post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

Are you talking about a future iPad with retina display, or that 20% of iPad owners will upgrade?

Or both?

I was thinking mainly about the ridiculous rumors of the Ipad2 having a retina display. I can't believe that anybody actually fell for that one. Sadly, quite a few people did.
post #22 of 44
I'll Buy one of those 20%.
post #23 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by MOEW View Post

Then return your ipad when you get an ios virus. Now what?


It's one thing to poke some fun and have a laugh, but don't cry when the truth bites your hand!

Except there aren't any. Oh boy!

iPhone 4S 64GB, Black, soon to be sold in favor of a Nokia Lumia 920
Early 2010 MacBook Pro 2.4GHz, soon to be replaced with a Retina MacBook Pro, or an Asus U500

Reply

iPhone 4S 64GB, Black, soon to be sold in favor of a Nokia Lumia 920
Early 2010 MacBook Pro 2.4GHz, soon to be replaced with a Retina MacBook Pro, or an Asus U500

Reply
post #24 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I was thinking mainly about the ridiculous rumors of the Ipad2 having a retina display. I can't believe that anybody actually fell for that one. Sadly, quite a few people did.

It'll be in iPad3. If you believe the rumors, iPad3 is the one to get with iPad2 merely being a quick upgrade to keep it ahead of the competition.
post #25 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

It'll be in iPad3. If you believe the rumors, iPad3 is the one to get with iPad2 merely being a quick upgrade to keep it ahead of the competition.

Ah, another rumor. Would that be the rumor of the iPad3 coming out in the fall?

The iPad3 might very well have some sort of retina display, and I guess we'll find out in 12 months from now.
post #26 of 44
lol, over what period of time?

My iPad 1 will be just fine for a while to come.
post #27 of 44
I've promised myself that I won't buy any new apple hardware this year, so I'll be sticking with my original iPad until iPad 3 comes out in 2012.
post #28 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I've promised myself that I won't buy any new apple hardware this year, so I'll be sticking with my original iPad until iPad 3 comes out in 2012.

..You mean 2011.
post #29 of 44
Well... We certainly cannot have the kids fighting over who gets to use the iPad. I won't tolerate fighting.

Do you think my wife will buy that logic?
post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by donlphi View Post

Well... We certainly cannot have the kids fighting over who gets to use the iPad. I won't tolerate fighting.

Do you think my wife will buy that logic?

That's my logic for most of the 20%. "We need more than one in the house." I'm contemplating getting an iPad just to run my music through the house (3 stories.... I'm old), and using a judicious use of DLNP, iOS controls (there's an app for an iPad running Pioneer vsx1021 receivers over ethernet), and airplay. But then my honey can't do her Master Degree homework (primarily reading PDFs).... So... I get an iPad 2 (yes, we even facetime from 3rd to 1st floor now... laptop to iPhone4), and the iPad gets to be 'hers'.

But... does anyone need a 2009 MacBook? That b*tch is heavy;-)
post #31 of 44
Best Buy in Mechanicsburg, PA is getting their shipment in as I write this. Not sure what the volume is yet. Supposed to be getting in all models + covers + hdmi dongle. We'll see.

I'll be there to upgrade my 32 gig wifi to the new model--64 gig wifi if there are any left by the time i get there.
Anthracite
Reply
Anthracite
Reply
post #32 of 44
Count me in as one of those to upgrade.
post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

What truth would that be? Apple's App store is closed, you know, the very thing that the fandroids like to whine, moan and complain about. Having a closed App store has it's advantages. The Apps actually have to go through an approval process and be approved by Apple.

This is in stark contrast to the Android market, where it's so open that anybody can release their junk there. And that includes the 50 malware infested programs that were recently discovered there.

Didn't you hear that Google provided a fix for these, within minutes of discovering them. Too bad it took six months to discover them, and too bad none of the carriers offered the fix to their users. I guess they could have 'rooted' their own fix.
post #34 of 44
Adamsky sees the global market at 50 million units and apple to supply 28 million of those? Does he actually think some else will supply 22 million? Whoa, shakin my head in disbelief. He certainly has a lot more faith in these other mystery suppliers than I do. (he must be referring to units shipped)
post #35 of 44
I am very frugal. So, I will keep using my old iPad for a year or two. Should I break mine, I suppose I will buy the iPad2 or whichever current.
post #36 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pridon View Post

Re the non Apple products. Why would anyone want to pay more for less. What Android vendors offer training sessions for new users and handholding such as helping you set up/move apps etc.

The customer will pay more... for less... of worse...
-The Palo Alto Postulate-
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -
"He who laughs, lasts!" - Mary Pettibone Poole -
Reply
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -
"He who laughs, lasts!" - Mary Pettibone Poole -
Reply
post #37 of 44
I put my iPad 1 up for sale on Craigs 5 days ago at the same price everyone else was asking for the same model as mine and not a single inquiry so far. I'm a little disappointed. I wanted to upgrade but if it doesn't sell I guess I'll keep it another year and then give it away.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

Reply
post #38 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

You shouldn't believe everything that you read on the internet, especially unfounded, ridiculous rumors that get spread around so much, that some gullible people actually start to believe in them.

I'm not sure they were unfounded. People did find evidence of prototype retina (2x displays) but the rumors were at least half a generation premature.
The idea that there was some mass supply at economic prices of such unprecedented screens when no-one else has come close to retina density at that size was pretty far fetched, but not unfounded. It would not surprise me to see an iPad HD in the fall (@ a higher price) and mainstream retina display iPad3s next year.
It would cripple the opposition who are in no position to produce better displays than the iPad now (Xoom's is pretty bad) and could see this coming via the iPad HD with no way to do anything about it. iPad retina displays would be my bet for a large chunk of the Apple investment in displays earlier this year and partnership on new factories that we heard about.
post #39 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by jj.yuan View Post

I am very frugal. So, I will keep using my old iPad for a year or two. Should I break mine, I suppose I will buy the iPad2 or whichever current.

I thought of doing that too.
post #40 of 44
Id be surprised if it was as low as 20%, it depends on how many people are early adopters and the secondary market.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPad
  • Up to 20% of original iPad buyers predicted to upgrade to Apple's iPad 2
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › Up to 20% of original iPad buyers predicted to upgrade to Apple's iPad 2