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Don't be surprised if Apple sells 1M of iPad 2 this weekend, analyst says

post #1 of 39
Thread Starter 
With expanded availability, two colors and a buzzworthy magnetic case, the iPad 2 could more than triple last year's sales debut and reach a million units over the weekend, one analyst believes.

Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities said in a note to investors on Friday that he "would not be surprised" if sales of the iPad 2 reach 1 million over the weekend. That would easily best last year's sales of 1 million in just 28 days.

White said the sales pace will also likely continue into the coming weeks, as Apple plans to launch the iPad 2 in 26 more countries on March 25. Friday's 5 p.m. sales start applies to the U.S. only.

He noted signs of strong demand already, with online orders not shipping for 2 or 3 weeks, and lines forming at stores around the country. The first customers will get their hands on the iPad at 5 p.m. local time via all 236 Apple retail stores, and about 10,000 other locations, including Best Buy, Walmart, Target, and carriers AT&T and Verizon Wireless.

The iPad 2 will have a stronger launch than the iPad thanks in part to increased availability, but also because of the option of a white model, and the new magnetic "Smart Cases" that White believes will "create a bit of a buzz with customers."



White has projected the iPad to conservatively generate $16.92 billion in revenue with sales of 27.36 million units in fiscal 2011. That would mean iPad sales would contribute nearly a third of Apple's $36.8 billion forecast incremental revenue.

White also sees the iPad 2 launch driving a "halo effect" around other Apple products. Free publicity in the news from sales of the iPad 2 will drive demand for other products, like iPhones and Macs, he said.
post #2 of 39
Wow!

And wow!

Oh and first , wish I was first in line, now I might be shutout for a few weeks, sigh
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post #3 of 39
If one analyst says Apple will sell 600,000 then another analyst has to say Apple will sell 1,000,000.
post #4 of 39
And neither one could be correct.
post #5 of 39
Another thing to remember is that last year's iPad debut was of only the Wi-Fi model; this year the 3G is being offered as well and on both major carriers here in the States. So I would be surprised if Apple does not sell at least a million over this weekend.
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post #6 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyapple View Post

Another thing to remember is that last year's iPad debut was of only the Wi-Fi model; this year the 3G is being offered as well and on both major carriers here in the States. So I would be surprised if Apple does not sell at least a million over this weekend.

Long line here @ the Wilmington DE store.
post #7 of 39
And to think these guys get paid for plucking numbers out of their backsides. Even if they get it wildly wrong, nobody docks their pay.

Why don't we all have a guess? I'm saying 400k for the weekend.
post #8 of 39
How many people will order now and cancel before shipping?
post #9 of 39
Wonder if eBay will have any good buys on the used ones now?
post #10 of 39
Quote:
The iPad 2 will have a stronger launch than the iPad thanks in part to increased availability, but also because of the option of a white model, and the new magnetic "Smart Cases" that White believes will "create a bit of a buzz with customers."

I don't know how this argument can be made. Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!

Furthermore, it appears that this same issue may be repeated with the iPad2. If supply is limited in the next week or two, as the slipping online shipping times indicates, it may be quite a while before we ever find out how many iPads are in demand after a release!
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post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

And to think these guys get paid for plucking numbers out of their backsides. Even if they get it wildly wrong, nobody docks their pay.

Why don't we all have a guess? I'm saying 400k for the weekend.

Clearly you are counting on that whole no consequences for being wrong thing!

I would be very surprised if apple doesn't easily move twice that by Sunday.
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post #12 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

I don't know how this argument can be made. Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!

Furthermore, it appears that this same issue may be repeated with the iPad2. If supply is limited in the next week or two, as the slipping online shipping times indicates, it may be quite a while before we ever find out how many iPads are in demand after a release!

Apple may have supply issues again, but their production volumes are likely much higher because they now know the kind of demand they can expect and they've had a year to improve on the production techniques for many of the parts.

Even if sales are supply limited, which it appears they will be, I'd expect much greater sales numbers.
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post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

...Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!

Problem is, we don't know how much of a supply is out there or on its way. It's certainly conceivable that they could have a million or more available to purchase from retail outlets this weekend.

Wouldn't that be something!
post #14 of 39
Hmmm. Apple sells but doesn't ship, Samsung ships but doesn't sell.\
post #15 of 39
It's always the same with those analysts on Apple launches... they're just trying to top each other.
It was the same with the first iPhone or first iPad. Eventually the numbers were ridiculously high. And even though the products were highly successful, they came nowhere near those numbers.

They are trying to manipulate the stock market. Up now, and then down later with the real, moderate numbers.
post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

Apple may have supply issues again, but their production volumes are likely much higher because they now know the kind of demand they can expect and they've had a year to improve on the production techniques for many of the parts.

Even if sales are supply limited, which it appears they will be, I'd expect much greater sales numbers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post

Problem is, we don't know how much of a supply is out there or on its way. It's certainly conceivable that they could have a million or more available to purchase from retail outlets this weekend.

Wouldn't that be something!

I am in complete agreement. I assume Apple had more supply built up before this launch and I am getting the feeling that they may still have trouble keeping up. Their performance of late has been nothing short of astonishing!
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post #17 of 39
Mob scene at Apple stores, Best Buy, here in NYC. Might have better luck With AT&T or Verizon.
post #18 of 39
Apple stock has high volatility, and investors make money on talking up Apple, then selling it high, talking it down, then buying it again on the low side, then talking it up again.

The 600k guy has either less greedy investors than the 1M guy's investors or his investors bought lower than the 1M guy, who is talking Apple higher so Apple's stock will add a couple of extra points.

Just investors making money by doing nothing useful.

PS: Investors don't care and don't know about Apple products.
post #19 of 39
I say 1,000,050
post #20 of 39
My guess is 26M this weekend. 28m to the end of year.
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post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

My guess is 26M this weekend. 28m to the end of year.

i'm not sure which would be outrageous -- if your M means thousand or million (MM is the million denomination in my industry)
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post #22 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

And to think these guys get paid for plucking numbers out of their backsides. Even if they get it wildly wrong, nobody docks their pay.

Why don't we all have a guess? I'm saying 400k for the weekend.

I'm saying you're way, way too low. One million easy and I'm never wrong.
post #23 of 39
Is anyone else getting sick and tire of "halo effect" line?
post #24 of 39
I am revising my figures. Am now saying 17,090 this weekend. 400 million to years end.
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post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffmac7101 View Post

Is anyone else getting sick and tire of "halo effect" line?

Apple's competitors?
post #26 of 39
Where do people get all this money.I would love to charge it,but I will not.I will buy it as soons as I save enough cash for it.

Thanks National Juris Solutions
post #27 of 39
Amazing! I got my iPad and the line was insane long.
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Apple's competitors?

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post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

I'm saying you're way, way too low. One million easy and I'm never wrong.

Maybe I am, maybe I'm not. We'll know by Monday or Tuesday whether they hit the 1M. Anything less than that and Apple are unlikely to announce it. I just believe that there are three factors working against the iPad2.

(i) People only just bought an iPad.
(ii) The economy is in poor shape, so buying an iPad is not at the top of people's list of priorities.
(iii) People have Apple fatigue.
post #30 of 39
(i) Far fewer people don't have an iPad than those who do. There are eight billion people on this planet. Most do not own iPads.

(ii) Buying an iPad is not at the top of some people's list of priorities. However, based on photographs of long lines today at many stores around the country, it is clearly at the top of the list for some other people. Also, shipping times for iPads purchased online increased from 2-3 days to 2-3 weeks within a matter of hours.

(iii) Some people may have Apple fatigue, but many more do not if you look at Apple's sales growth over many, many years. Just read their SEC filings. Since this product is anticipated to sell more than the previous model, it is likely that the number of people who do not have Apple fatigue outnumber those who do.
post #31 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

Maybe I am, maybe I'm not. We'll know by Monday or Tuesday whether they hit the 1M. Anything less than that and Apple are unlikely to announce it. I just believe that there are three factors working against the iPad2.

It is hard to take your post seriously since the most obvious limiting factor is:

(1) Limited availability and long shipping times of iPad2.

Still, lets see your list...
Quote:
(i) People only just bought an iPad.

Some: yes. Many others: no.
Anyway, I suspect that many current iPad owners will buy a new one and sell their "old" one. Or pass it down to a spouse or kid or parent or whatever...

Quote:
(ii) The economy is in poor shape, so buying an iPad is not at the top of people's list of priorities.

I agree, this is a limiting factor. However, consumer spending has risen for 7 straight months in the US. Furthermore, the economy has been bad for several years and somehow Apple has managed to set increasing records for sales EVERY quarter through it all. Don't ask me how! (But clearly it is driving some people who don't like Apple crazy and making life difficult for those whose job it is to spread anti-Apple FUD)

Quote:
(iii) People have Apple fatigue.

Evidence please? I mean, sure, Apple is no longer the scrappy little challenger to the big boys of MS, IBM and Intel. They are now easy targets for late night comedy routines and on the radar of people who fear or hate The Man. But in terms of what people want to own? Apple is still clearly on top.
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post #32 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffmac7101 View Post

Is anyone else getting sick and tire of "halo effect" line?

Not me.

Although in my case it was a reverse halo effect. Although I owned an Apple II+, I never liked Macs, they weren't expandable enough. Then after 3 years of my clients telling me about how they liked their Macs, I bought a Mac Mini when my PC was in the shop.

After using the Mini for a weekend, I was hooked. I ended up buying multiple iPods, the Apple TV, the iPhone and iPad.

All this came from the great experience in using one product.
post #33 of 39
I have another reason:

Simply stated it is because the iPad is a device which is designed from the ground up to communicate!

huh you say?

Let me explain will ya!

Back in the 1970's when IBM ruled the roost with their huge mainframes, the mind set about a piece of information input into a computer was to first store it on a disk drive. Emphasis was placed on keeping data safe on disk drives and tape. Subsequently if that data needed to be used it was read fron the drive, processed and then written some where else. This is known as "batch processing" Over the last 40 years new online computer systems and more sophisticated online real time computer processing systems have been developed. These system do essentially the same thing but in a much faster and more efficient way. Instead of processing input and immediateley storing it on a disk, (which is inherenetly slow) the data (or message) is simply processed and sent to whereever it needs to go without being slowed down by any disk i/o. At some point the transaction will be written to disk , but only as a low priority task which doesn't slow down the main processing thread through the computer system. the other main difference is that the data is not batched up into 1000's of transactions which are processed at the end of the day (thats how banks used to do it) but are done in real time one at a time. This is why when you wire money or want to buy and sell stocks these transaction happen almost instamtly rather than having to wait until the next day to see your order completed.

Now to my main point, Apple has simply taken this messaging idea and is actually applying it to consumer devices. Think about it. Microsoft the King of taking data and scattering it in a completely bone headed way all over a hard drive. They have based their whole shagging windows system based on the old worn out (MSDOS) MS Disk Operating System. Millions of consumers spend countless hours trying to get work done using an OS based on a bone headed idea dating back to the 60-and 70''s. In fact DOS was based on CPM. CPM was actually quite well designed, And Bill Gates stole it and neutered it's best freatures and packaged it as MSDOS.

You see nerds love to talk all day about memory and hard disc space, because they still have their heads up their butts thinking that IBM way is the way to think. WRONG. Oh they got a bit less bone headed by calling their files, databases and so on , just mention SQL to them and watch them get a hard-on!
Android is simply the latest re-incarnation of that old bone headed thinking! Do you really think those so-call whiz heads at Google really understand it any better than some bone headed windows programmer? All they care about is monetizing your clicks not anything about making it easier to run you life! their only really useful app google maps is really just a gigantic database, (more damn bone headed files), they just got smart about how it is presented to you, but it slow, guess why?

Apple has designed a truly elegant OS based on Object Oriented Programming techniques which makes it easier to design truly magical applications which don't rely as much as the bone headed people's disk and memory fixation. It's not about that at all , it's about using the computer the way it was always meanst to be used as a machine to move information around as efficeintly as possible.

What the shag do you think Apple doesn't give a toss about having USB ports and SD-card slots. Who the flip cares about getting data off a SD card. Thats' the way the bone headed people think. They have to masturbate their files. No no no no no , the cool way to get your pics is to upload them wirelessly from you camera to a central server and then sync them to whatever mobile device needed. You see how its all about messaging, not about the size of your RAM!!!!!

Apple is creating a completely seemless system which avoids all the complication involved in keeping duplicate copies of your media all over all you devices. Thast why the bone heads implementation will fail every time, because it give their users multiple headaches trying to get their screwed up file based systems working . Its a nightmare.

Do your self a favor make you life easeir buy Apple. Don't fall for Android ! you will regret it for sure.

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



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Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



Reply
post #34 of 39
11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



Reply

Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.


History reduce Apple Watch.... to a footnote in the annals of technology - Benjamin Frost Dec 2014



Reply
post #35 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wgb113 View Post

Long line here @ the Wilmington DE store.

Hi, I'm an Australian and live in Melbourne, just noticed your post.
Small world indeed. I use to live in Media PA, then Wilmington and worked at Dupont as a software developer back in 1992.
I loved the area, met lots of great people. Just curious has Wilmington changed that much?
Good luck in your quest and I will have to wait a couple of weeks and hopefully grab an iPad 2 here.
Need another one as family of 4, one is just not enough.
I bet you that what was Apple's approach, get people to buy another one, not really an upgrade path (although getting a better device), but the reason is that one is never enough, so hand me down time. Brilliant concept. Will never work with the other tablets, as one gets stuck with an inferior product from day one, and when Dad upgrades to say an iPad, the kids want it too, not the other.
post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I have another reason:

Simply stated it is because the iPad is a device which is designed from the ground up to communicate!

huh you say?

Let me explain will ya!

Back in the 1970's when IBM ruled the roost with their huge mainframes, the mind set about a piece of information input into a computer was to first store it on a disk drive. Emphasis was placed on keeping data safe on disk drives and tape. Subsequently if that data needed to be used it was read fron the drive, processed and then written some where else. This is known as "batch processing" Over the last 40 years new online computer systems and more sophisticated online real time computer processing systems have been developed. These system do essentially the same thing but in a much faster and more efficient way. Instead of processing input and immediateley storing it on a disk, (which is inherenetly slow) the data (or message) is simply processed and sent to whereever it needs to go without being slowed down by any disk i/o. At some point the transaction will be written to disk , but only as a low priority task which doesn't slow down the main processing thread through the computer system. the other main difference is that the data is not batched up into 1000's of transactions which are processed at the end of the day (thats how banks used to do it) but are done in real time one at a time. This is why when you wire money or want to buy and sell stocks these transaction happen almost instamtly rather than having to wait until the next day to see your order completed.

Now to my main point, Apple has simply taken this messaging idea and is actually applying it to consumer devices. Think about it. Microsoft the King of taking data and scattering it in a completely bone headed way all over a hard drive. They have based their whole shagging windows system based on the old worn out (MSDOS) MS Disk Operating System. Millions of consumers spend countless hours trying to get work done using an OS based on a bone headed idea dating back to the 60-and 70''s. In fact DOS was based on CPM. CPM was actually quite well designed, And Bill Gates stole it and neutered it's best freatures and packaged it as MSDOS.

You see nerds love to talk all day about memory and hard disc space, because they still have their heads up their butts thinking that IBM way is the way to think. WRONG. Oh they got a bit less bone headed by calling their files, databases and so on , just mention SQL to them and watch them get a hard-on!
Android is simply the latest re-incarnation of that old bone headed thinking! Do you really think those so-call whiz heads at Google really understand it any better than some bone headed windows programmer? All they care about is monetizing your clicks not anything about making it easier to run you life! their only really useful app google maps is really just a gigantic database, (more damn bone headed files), they just got smart about how it is presented to you, but it slow, guess why?

Apple has designed a truly elegant OS based on Object Oriented Programming techniques which makes it easier to design truly magical applications which don't rely as much as the bone headed people's disk and memory fixation. It's not about that at all , it's about using the computer the way it was always meanst to be used as a machine to move information around as efficeintly as possible.

What the shag do you think Apple doesn't give a toss about having USB ports and SD-card slots. Who the flip cares about getting data off a SD card. Thats' the way the bone headed people think. They have to masturbate their files. No no no no no , the cool way to get your pics is to upload them wirelessly from you camera to a central server and then sync them to whatever mobile device needed. You see how its all about messaging, not about the size of your RAM!!!!!

Apple is creating a completely seemless system which avoids all the complication involved in keeping duplicate copies of your media all over all you devices. Thast why the bone heads implementation will fail every time, because it give their users multiple headaches trying to get their screwed up file based systems working . Its a nightmare.

Do your self a favor make you life easeir buy Apple. Don't fall for Android ! you will regret it for sure.

Agree with your rant.
I work in IT as a software developer, and use m$ garbage, communicator, outlook dies all the time.
The IT guys can;t fix it.
A team member asks me whether he should by an iMac (he wants the large screen size as he has no TV), or buy a Dell at half the price?
You know how I answered ? I did not blab on about this and that, I simply said "Do you value your tome on this planet?" "Would you rather spend your time with your 1 year old beautiful son, or spend it fighting and fixing your pc (piece of crap)".
Its really that simple.
One
post #37 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

Maybe I am, maybe I'm not. We'll know by Monday or Tuesday whether they hit the 1M. Anything less than that and Apple are unlikely to announce it. I just believe that there are three factors working against the iPad2.

(i) People only just bought an iPad.
(ii) The economy is in poor shape, so buying an iPad is not at the top of people's list of priorities.
(iii) People have Apple fatigue.

You would think that people in Massachusetts may react the way you do, but what I saw last night was as if people were earning all six figures, only a few were buying just one, more bought the maximum two, while some got away with the limit by bringing a buddy. A family (of four, daughter, parents, grandfather) bought five.

That the popularity was even growing, at least in Boston, was when a just retired person came all the way from Ashmont, among the first in the group that got in. He never bought a computer before, just bought a Dell, never had internet before. You would think he was so clueless person (big, soft spoken and calm) if you stereotype people living in Ashmont of Boston City, but it turned out he was not.

He did not know much about computers, that he admitted. But he knew what he wanted to do with it. I got interested with him because he stayed for hours there, and what was even more interesting was that he was not brushed off by one of the blue-shirted Apple staff. That says much about Apple staff, that they simply did not brush him off. You would be amazed what sort of books he knew, and what sort of reading he wanted to do with it. Except he literally did not know how to even navigate the iPad.

However busy the store was, the same Apple staff stayed with him, trying to make him understand the basics, show examples, let him try, etc. They had to move from table to table because they occupied initially the choice table on the second floor. Imagine spending more than three hours for one person, someone that may be simply be brushed off at Best Buy, or Target or Walmart because he already bought the iPad2, after at about 530pm.

He left the store at about 830pm. He must have left his house in Ashmont around noon, because it took two subway trains with waits and walks in between, in a bad Friday afternoon weather in Boston. The estimates were based from what I heard among the really firt people near the begining of the line, who were there 2-5 hours before the opening.

After seeing him literary struggle, like another friend of mine, who did not know anything about computers, I decided to speak with him after they were finally though (more than 3-hours after). The Apple staff who was with him most of the time encouraged him to come back. I quite like his demeanor and his interest to learn, I told him about the seminar, as well as the One-to-One, which somehow was not being pushed by the staff. He did not balk at the cost, and wanted one. They were quite busy, so they wave the purchase at the same time the product was purchased, so they told him to come back some other day more convenient to him, and they will allow him to enroll in the One-to-One.

His kind of new Apple consumers, are among the reasons why Apple is gaining more followers. And, from the faces I have since, there was no Apple fatigue, as you claim.

CGC
post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

Maybe I am, maybe I'm not. We'll know by Monday or Tuesday whether they hit the 1M. Anything less than that and Apple are unlikely to announce it. I just believe that there are three factors working against the iPad2.

(i) People only just bought an iPad.
(ii) The economy is in poor shape, so buying an iPad is not at the top of people's list of priorities.
(iii) People have Apple fatigue.

I predict you will be absolutely wrong, and the iPad2 will end up selling considerably more than the iPad.

(i) True, many may have bought one recently, but at the same time millions have now been exposed to it through their family/friends/media/etc. Increased awareness will mean increased purchases. Dont underestimate the choice of color, case colors, both carriers, wider distribution, etc etc. This is now a known, successful product, unlike the 1st iPad where people may have been hesistant (when did a previous tablet ever succeed)

(ii) Moot point. This argument has consistently been made in the last couple years at the launch of any apple product, but their sales have consisteny grown linearly since. We've seen that Apple is in many ways protected from the economy- there's been a ton of articles about this. Simply said, it makes no difference. History has shown that there's pretty much no correlation between the state of the economy and Apple's sales and success.

(iii) No they don't.
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by ltcompuser View Post

Not me.

Although in my case it was a reverse halo effect. Although I owned an Apple II+, I never liked Macs, they weren't expandable enough. Then after 3 years of my clients telling me about how they liked their Macs, I bought a Mac Mini when my PC was in the shop.

After using the Mini for a weekend, I was hooked. I ended up buying multiple iPods, the Apple TV, the iPhone and iPad.

All this came from the great experience in using one product.

That's not a reverse halo effect.
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