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Apple attracts 70% new buyers with iPad 2 launch - survey

post #1 of 96
Thread Starter 
A survey of customers buying the iPad 2 at launch has found that 70 percent of those customers are new to the platform and did not own Apple's original iPad.

Researchers at Piper Jaffray, including analyst Gene Munster, polled 236 people in line for the iPad 2 when it went on sale last Friday. Launches are usually driven by users upgrading, like last year's launch of the iPhone 4, when just 23 percent of handset buyers were new to the iPhone platform.

But Piper Jaffray's poll found that more than two-thirds of first-day iPad 2 buyers are new to the iPad, suggesting that Apple's touchscreen tablet is attracting many new users with its second-generation model.

"We continue to believe that Apple sold 400k-500 iPad 2s over the weekend," Munster wrote. We note that the weekend number for iPad 2 is essentially a launch day total because stock across retailers was mostly depleted late Friday and not replenished during the weekend."

Munster's numbers are largely in line with other analysts, who expect Apple to sell at least a half-million of the iPad 2 in its launch weekend. At least one more bullish analyst has said investors shouldn't be surprised if Apple sells a million.

Munster has forecast sales of 5.5 million iPads in the March quarter, a number he said is now "likely conservative" based on strong demand for the iPad 2 in both stores and online. On Saturday, Apple was forced to delay the estimated ship date to as long as a month for new iPad 2 orders via its online store.

The Piper Jaffray survey also found that 47 percent of buyers were purchasing a 3G model, with a $130 premium over the Wi-Fi-only counterparts.

A total of 41 percent surveyed opted for the 32GB model, which was up from the 32% that bought the 32GB capacity of the first iPad. And the 64GB model also gained share, suggesting that the average selling price of the iPad 2 may be greater than the first iPad.

Of those in line on Friday, 65 percent of respondents said they owned an iPhone, 24 percent said they owned a Kindle, though only 6 percent intend to read with their iPad. A more popular use for the iPad 2 is using apps and playing games, which 17 percent said they intend to do.
post #2 of 96
Ouch. My head aches, given that an AI headline yesterday said just about the opposite!

(I agree with this one, though).
post #3 of 96
Yes, it does seem to be the opposite of a recent post

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post #4 of 96
Judging by the long lines Friday, in Apple Stores, Bestbuy, and other stores from coast to coast, and the news that almost all the stores sold out of the item, I think this is a conservative estimate. The number sold Friday and over the weekend, I believe, is much more that.
post #5 of 96
There will be another survey tomorrow with yet another set of numbers, which means we'd be able to give AI 3 clicks instead of just 1 click.
post #6 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A survey of customers buying the iPad 2 at launch has found that 70 percent of those customers are new to the platform and did not own Apple's original iPad.

Researchers at Piper Jaffray, including analyst Gene Munster, polled 236 people in line for the iPad 2 when it went on sale last Friday. Launches are usually driven by users upgrading, like last year's launch of the iPhone 4, when just 23 percent of handset buyers were new to the iPhone platform.

But Piper Jaffray's poll found that more than two-thirds of first-day iPad 2 buyers are new to the iPad, suggesting that Apple's touchscreen tablet is attracting many new users with its second-generation model.

"We continue to believe that Apple sold 400k-500 iPad 2s over the weekend," Munster wrote. We note that the weekend number for iPad 2 is essentially a launch day total because stock across retailers was mostly depleted late Friday and not replenished during the weekend."

Munster's numbers are largely in line with other analysts, who expect Apple to sell at least a half-million of the iPad 2 in its launch weekend. At least one more bullish analyst has said investors shouldn't be surprised if Apple sells a million.

Munster has forecast sales of 5.5 million iPads in the March quarter, a number he said is now "likely conservative" based on strong demand for the iPad 2 in both stores and online. On Saturday, Apple was forced to delay the estimated ship date to as long as a month for new iPad 2 orders via its online store.

The Piper Jaffray survey also found that 47 percent of buyers were purchasing a 3G model, with a $130 premium over the Wi-Fi-only counterparts.

A total of 41 percent surveyed opted for the 32GB model, which was up from the 32% that bought the 32GB capacity of the first iPad. And the 64GB model also gained share, suggesting that the average selling price of the iPad 2 may be greater than the first iPad.

Of those in line on Friday, 65 percent of respondents said they owned an iPhone, 24 percent said they owned a Kindle, though only 6 percent intend to read with their iPad. A more popular use for the iPad 2 is using apps and playing games, which 17 percent said they intend to do.

I think a lot of people felt that the first generation iPad was nothing more then a 10" iPod Touch and that Apple could have done a lot more with iPad v1 so they waited until iPad v2. I am one of those people. Things like HDMI and cameras for Facetime should have been on iPad v1. Now that they are on v2 people are a bit happier and willing to buy.
post #7 of 96
There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. Having said that, those people who wanted to buy were probably desperate with gadget-envy, so bought as soon as they could. That being the case, this data point (from a very small dataset) is statistically meaningless given the likely skew of the pent-up demand from this group.

All that can be deduced from this is that 70% of the 236 people surveyed did not already own an iPad. In another store the figure could be only 20%.
post #8 of 96
Those in line that were over 4 ft tall, either male or female, who knew what day of the week it was, recognized that Apple was not just a fruit, able to pronounce their own name, and who weren't in line to wait for the Justin Bieber film, comprised this very scientific study, which was significant to the p-value of 1.00 (look it up). But wait....back at you with a similar EVEN more scientific study tomorrow, or not.
post #9 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

I think a lot of people felt that the first generation iPad was nothing more then a 10" iPod Touch and that Apple could have done a lot more with iPad v1 so they waited until iPad v2. I am one of those people. Things like HDMI and cameras for Facetime should have been on iPad v1. Now that they are on v2 people are a bit happier and willing to buy.

Agree... Which is why the 500k number seems way low to me!
post #10 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

I think a lot of people felt that the first generation iPad was nothing more then a 10" iPod Touch and that Apple could have done a lot more with iPad v1 so they waited until iPad v2. I am one of those people. Things like HDMI and cameras for Facetime should have been on iPad v1. Now that they are on v2 people are a bit happier and willing to buy.

I have to laugh at this simplistic analysis because there were what, 15 million iPad's sold? And you think there could have been another 15 million sold? What then of the iPad2? I think you need to go to business school.

Apple couldn't blow it's wad on all features for the iPad otherwise there would be no reason to make an iPad2.

For those of us many, many millions who bought an iPad, I'm pretty sure the "giant iPod Touch" thing was never a factor.

Somehow when I saw my oncologist with one at the Stanford Cancer Center and he was using it to look at my CT scans, zooming in and panning and scanning, I never thought of it as a 10" iPod Touch because no iPod Touch or iPhone could do that with even a trace of comfort as the iPad did. I applauded Apple for the vision and willingness to put it out there, despite what the haters say.
post #11 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

I think a lot of people felt that the first generation iPad was nothing more then a 10" iPod Touch and that Apple could have done a lot more with iPad v1 so they waited until iPad v2. I am one of those people. Things like HDMI and cameras for Facetime should have been on iPad v1. Now that they are on v2 people are a bit happier and willing to buy.

Should have been? Why do say that instead of would have liked?
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post #12 of 96
I was at the flagship Apple store tonight, the one on Fifth Ave, which is the biggest selling store in the entire world.

I wasn't there to get a new iPad, because there were none left and I knew that before I went there, I just happened to be in the neighborhood so I stopped by for a quick minute. I did get a chance to test out the new iPad for a little bit and there's not much to say about it besides it's great!

I already know what the headlines here are going to be this coming week.

I was talking to an Apple employee for a few minutes and while they don't know or mention any numbers of course, they did say that it was the most successful and biggest selling launch in their history. They were even sold out of all smart covers, every single one, and there were huge lines with people just to get a smart cover yesterday.
post #13 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Ouch. My head aches, given that an AI headline yesterday said just about the opposite!

(I agree with this one, though).


This survey is a little better done than the one posted Friday. The first survey was of 50 people (out of 250) standing in line at the Palo Alto/Stanford store. This current article surveyed nearly 5 times as many people (236) from 2 locations, NYNY and Minneapolis MN.

So this survey is better, but doesn't strike me as good.
post #14 of 96
I am not surprised at all. I am looking forward to the anti-Apple folk's spin on this one. Seems to me Apple just xoomed even further ahead!
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #15 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post

I have to laugh at this simplistic analysis because there were what, 15 million iPad's sold? And you think there could have been another 15 million sold? What then of the iPad2? I think you need to go to business school.

Apple couldn't blow it's wad on all features for the iPad otherwise there would be no reason to make an iPad2.

For those of us many, many millions who bought an iPad, I'm pretty sure the "giant iPod Touch" thing was never a factor.

Somehow when I saw my oncologist with one at the Stanford Cancer Center and he was using it to look at my CT scans, zooming in and panning and scanning, I never thought of it as a 10" iPod Touch because no iPod Touch or iPhone could do that with even a trace of comfort as the iPad did. I applauded Apple for the vision and willingness to put it out there, despite what the haters say.

Laugh all you want at the simplistic analysis. The truth is there were few lines, and plenty of iPad v1 available for purchase days after the release (unlike the iPad v2 which is sold out anywhere). Yes, iPad v1 was successful, but people knew that Apple was holding back and waiting for v2.
post #16 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Should have been? Why do say that instead of would have liked?


No, I say,"should have been" or should of had. Those were things available on other devices. They should have been on iPad v1. Apple was just holding them back for the next version.
post #17 of 96
This to me is the most telling statistic out today: "Buyers were split almost evenly between Mac and PC users (51%/49%). By contrast, the split for the original iPad was 74%/26%."
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #18 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

No, I say,"should have been" or should of had. Those were things available on other devices. They should have been on iPad v1. Apple was just holding them back for the next version.

What other touch controlled tablets are you referring to here that had such things available when iPad 1 was launched?
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #19 of 96
iPad is a very good study tool when paired with dropbox and numbers. I was able to do a black scholes opm calculation in numbers pretty painlessly, and PowerPoint and PDF lecture notes are so much easier to read on an iPad then even a 13 inch MacBook.

Since I only needed iPad as a study tool I actually bought first gen. I think every student in business, science, law and literature should have at least the first gen iPad and if they play games an iPad 2.
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post #20 of 96
Analysts are not to be believed.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #21 of 96
That is what I want to know.
What percentage of those buying have no intention of even opening the box?
post #22 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Analysts are not to be believed.

I think you're perhaps being too harsh. This guy appears to have actually pounded the pavement to obtain some from-the-ground-up data (and not like the sloppy/silly attempt by some novice reporter sniffing around in just the Palo Alto line to draw sweeping, unwarranted generalizations), and that's to be applauded.
post #23 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mugzy View Post

That is what I want to know.
What percentage of those buying have no intention of even opening the box?

3.75%.

Why?
post #24 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. Having said that, those people who wanted to buy were probably desperate with gadget-envy, so bought as soon as they could. That being the case, this data point (from a very small dataset) is statistically meaningless given the likely skew of the pent-up demand from this group.

All that can be deduced from this is that 70% of the 236 people surveyed did not already own an iPad. In another store the figure could be only 20%.

Assuming it was from a representative (set of) store(s), 236 is a very decent sample size.
post #25 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mugzy View Post

That is what I want to know.
What percentage of those buying have no intention of even opening the box?

I bought one and won't even be opening the box. My wife will.

What? Not exactly what you meant?
post #26 of 96
Apple is greatly harming society with this product. Computers are the greatest invention of all time, "A bicycle for the mind" as Steve Jobs once said. And what more admirable goal for a company, than to make these amazing tools easier to use?

But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.

Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.

In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.
post #27 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by inkswamp View Post

I bought one and won't even be opening the box. My wife will.

What? Not exactly what you meant?

Probably meant reselling to China.
post #28 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation. .

That reflects the experience of buyers from the 90's. I've bought plenty of gen 1 products from Apple, including iPad 1, with few if any regrets.
But it does go to show how sticky impressions can be, and why Apple releases only what they feel will work properly.
post #29 of 96
"Informal survey at the Boyslton Apple Store in Boston indicate that more than 95% of iPad2 buyers are quite happy with their purchase based on actual response to the question:

Are you happy with your purchase?

and judging from their facial expression upon completion of the purchase. The other 5% were more difficult to ascertain, they were just too serious and absorbed playing with their new purchase right in the store...
"

I can safely say that the above informal survey is more true than any Gene Munster survey and analsys. The same analyst
  1. who placed an advisory that there will be no lines during the iPad2 launch, because...
  2. whose prediction last years iPad sales during the first weekend was 50% off ...
  3. who predicted that Apple would come out with a nano iPhone (several predictios already...
  4. who predicted that Apple will reduce the price of the white MacBook to $800 (many times too)
  5. who boldly predicted that Apple would sell 45M iPhones in 2009 (Apple was shy by about 9million???)

The same Gene Munster who must have made more incorrect predictions and analysis than correct ones. The Gene Munster whose quarterly predictions are more often offbase than close to the actual figure.

And yet, a number of posters here believe this "70% iPad2 buyers are newcomers"... because we feel good and want it to be true.

236 respondents and how many stores sampled? Really?

And yet another Apple Insider writer(?) who made all these extrapolations but with no word to say about the outright discrepancy of this prediction from the othe prediction the other day?

Maybe Neil Hughes does not read Apple Insider???

What is certain, both Neil Hughes and the unnamed Apple Insider staff who wrote:

Survey says 70% of first iPad 2 buyers own original iPad

either never took basic statistics in high school or college or were asleep when the lecturer discussed random sampling and valid sampling sample; not to mention how to deal with contradictory responses.

CGC

N.B.
The high proportion of newcomers as iPad2 buyers may well be true, but it would not be because of Gene Munster's survey. I am questioning the survey process here. Not the finding.

Apple could not manufacture enough, to meet demand. That there would be a large proportion of newcomers would not be surprising based on this alone. Exactly how many (or the percentage) is in question. But the pseudo-survey that Munster is so fond of would not provide the reliable answer.
post #30 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Apple is greatly harming society with this product. Computers are the greatest invention of all time, "A bicycle for the mind" as Steve Jobs once said. And what more admirable goal for a company, than to make these amazing tools easier to use?

But there is a fine line between making a tool simple *to use* and making a simple tool. You go far enough down the second path and you are manufacturing toys.

Apple Computer, Inc was totally admirable and an historic force for good. Apple Toy Co, Inc is encouraging people to swap their "bicycles for the mind" for toys.

In the interests of mind/body harmony, I propose a special offer Apple might try with new users (such as the 70% mentioned above). When they swap their notebook for an iPad, they can also hand over a healthy meal and Apple will give them a hamburger.

Pretentious much?
post #31 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

No, I say,"should have been" or should of had. Those were things available on other devices. They should have been on iPad v1. Apple was just holding them back for the next version.

They certainly could have included cameras, and its clear you would have liked them to, but you still havent stated why they should have been included. Where is Apples obligation to add cameras? They could have included 10 cameras, but does that makes sense to you simply because they are technically capable of doing something?

The Samsung Nexus S included NFC HW, yet no way to use it on the shipping model. The Moto Xoom included USB and SD card slot (something else Apple could have included on the iPad) but those are still not working with the shipping models.

Since FaceTime came out in iOS 4.0 alongside the iPhone 4 its just another in a long line of examples of Apple only adding HW when they have the SW to use it. Can you not conceive how much people would vilify Apple for adding a front facing camera with zero SW to make use of that camera? If you think so then you are not familiar with Apples modus operandi.

Why are you not including the stories about the iPad having an already lower profit margin to make it more competitive in a market segment that has been an abysmal failure for 2 decades? If you really think its about forcing people to upgrade every year then why are even supporting 2 to 3 generations back with iOS? If they stopped updating after one year theyd still be beating the rest of the industry by a fair margin.

Its a good lesson to learn that getting some right means balancing what you include with what you exclude, not simply adding everything that looks great on a spec sheet. We can look to the Moto Xoom to see evidence of that.
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post #32 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masteric View Post

Laugh all you want at the simplistic analysis. The truth is there were few lines, and plenty of iPad v1 available for purchase days after the release (unlike the iPad v2 which is sold out anywhere). Yes, iPad v1 was successful, but people knew that Apple was holding back and waiting for v2.

Forget any talk of simple analysis. But that is just outright false. There were huge lines for the iPad, and shipping was at 3-4 weeks for months.

Even in June-July, it was impossible to walk into an NYC Apple Store and get the iPad on the spot. You had to reserve one and then wait around a week (I specifically remember this because I needed to send an iPad with a friend to my home country, and was unable to do so because contrary to my expectations iPads were not immediately available early July....although, this was the Wifi version. Maybe the 3G versions were available?).
post #33 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

There are a lot of people who won't buy a first generation Apple product and will wait for the 2nd generation.

I see a lot of people on forums giving off that advice as if there was any truth behind it. It's a myth and ignorant people like to repeat that line as if they knew what they were talking about. They don't. There is just as likely for there to be a slight problem or a small bug or two in a second generation device as there is in a first generation device. Added features and hardware re-designs opens up the door for additional problems that were not even present in the first generation. Nothing is foolproof and there have been numerous Apple products that have had small issues with them, and many of those products were not first generation.
post #34 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Apple is greatly harming society with this product.

What are you talking about. I'm buying mine so I can read more casually without sitting in front of my computer. Like I told someone yesterday, if you want to argue that no one needs this product the same can be said anything other than food, shelter, and clothing. So if the computer you're reading this on is higher specced than my 2006 black MacBook, feel free to send it to me and liberate yourself from excess.
post #35 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

I just wish there was an option to have something to protect the back of the iPad. .

It doesn't seem like there is going to be an Apple case, but I'm sure that plenty of third party cases will be available for those people that want them and prefer them.

I haven't been able to buy an iPad2 yet, but when I do, I'll probably just get a smart cover for it. It almost seems like blasphemy to be covering up that slim and sleek looking product and hiding it inside of a case. The good thing is that there are options for everybody. Those who prefer naked, can do that, and those who prefer a case can go that route. In the end, everybody will be happy.
post #36 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by bedouin View Post

So if the computer you're reading this on is higher specced than my 2006 black MacBook, feel free to send it to me and liberate yourself from excess.

I'm reading this on my 2007 black Macbook, and no way would I ever give it away to anybody. I love that machine.
post #37 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by extremeskater View Post

Good luck on getting yourself an iPad 2 soon hopefully it won't be long for you.

Thanks! I'm not desperate or anything, and I haven't put any big effort into trying to obtain one yet. There are plenty of stores that sell them in my area, and new stock is coming in, so I'll eventually be able to grab one with a little luck.
post #38 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by hiker275 View Post

So this survey is better, but doesn't strike me as good.

Huh?
post #39 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Nothing is foolproof and there have been numerous Apple products that have had small issues with them, and many of those products were not first generation.

You're right. If I remember correctly the very first white G3 iBooks were fine, those in the 500-600mhz range; the big problems began with the 800 and 900mhz models that were certain to die prematurely.

One thing that truly impressed me about the first iPad was its build quality. I can't really remember one widespread hardware fault with them, and my dad's has been going strong for almost a year now. The iPhone has given Apple 5 years to perfect a mobile device that is beat to hell each day, and now that experience is dwindling down to the iPad. They really have about five years ahead of their competitors in that respect, not just one. After antenna gate the Apple haters are looking to exploit even the most minor deficiency.
post #40 of 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I'm reading this on my 2007 black Macbook, and no way would I ever give it away to anybody. I love that machine.

While the first generation white MacBooks had issues with blemishes, I can say the first generation black is rock solid after 5 years. I've had to replace a battery and HD, but that's nothing out of the ordinary. Yet another case of the first generation 'winning.'
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