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'Amazing' demand for iPad 2 seen as 'insurmountable lead' for Apple - Page 5

post #161 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_K View Post

By end of 2012 (if the world hasn't collapsed), they'll have sold more than 100 million iPads and counting...

I just see no competition. The iPhone was tied to a carrier at launch so the competitors were given the chance to catch up.

The iPod was mainly about music and videos. Apple's advance was not enough especially now that smartphones play music too.

The Mac was revolutionary but Windows knew more how to take advantage of it than Apple, relegating the Mac to a niche product.

With the iPad, none of the above applies. It has enough apps to lead as a closed platform. It's not carrier dependent. It's a better product.

And even more important. Apple has its own distribution network. Plus, the iPad is more affordable than other tablets... Again no competition.

Man, you talk about the iPod as its a failure. Why? Don't you know that 7 out 10 PMP owners has an iPod? 70% marketshare if you didn't konw.
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post #162 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigpics View Post

Steering people away from inappropriate financial advice is a personal mission - so many wolves looking for sheep to fleece - so I do go on.

However, I agree with you about financial advisors - even the best and most principled often have the bias you mentioned. Still, set and forget types who want to try to beat plain vanilla index funds can get fairly decent management - not from top tier people, but well-trained ones - at Schwab, Fidelity and Vanguard to name three discounters - who will hew to any risk curve you specify for about 1%/year. (As you note, though, they might often - or most often - not beat the indexes in the long run!)

And once you have a sizable portfolio, you can also get one time "portfolio reviews" for a reasonable fee. I got a free one once my account went over a certain threshold at one of the above, and it was highly detailed (about 50 pages!) and kind of useful.

I'm also very leery of "retail brokers" in general - and avoiding both those and put-up-a-shingle "planners and advisors" is why I always push newbies to Vanguard - not necessarily the best for an educated investor in every case or every investment, but because of its ethical practices, lowest-in-the-industry fees and where the people who buy Vanguard products are also buying Vanguard itself - since it's only big player where the funds own the fund company instead of the other way round, so the profits are passed back to the funds, and therefore to the shareholders.

Among the real scum out there, many unregulated "financial advisors" heavily push variable annuities (often on their friends and neighbors) with some single selling point like "guaranteed principal" (the same way Wintel (and now Google and friends) have long sold a headline spec or two!) while hiding high commissions, high fees, insurance components and 10 year lock-ins (kind of like a two year cell contract on a mediocre Android). And push them generally to people who don't even have IRA's or 401K's when V.A.'s are really only suitable for those who've maxxed out other "tax-advantaged" investments in the first place. Because a single no-transaction-fee Target Date fund will be just as safe and much less expensive for the truly unsophisticated over the long haul.

People who want to deal with a personal stock broker on the other hand should look up "burn and churn" before they let "their guy" decide when to buy and sell at any institution where the broker gets a commission for each trade. The worst of these guys will buy and sell you into oblivion with continuous frequent trading.

And even at some of the big houses, the "advice" can be atrocious (or nearly criminal). A friend of mine was widowed and was left with a large IRA account full of individual stocks she didn't understand at all. UBS sold her a variable annuity to "simplify" her life - with all the above defects - PLUS the fact it was a "tax-advantaged vehicle" INSIDE of an IRA - which is already tax-deferred!! And most of it, believe it or not - since she went in to go conservative and was near 60 - was in an aggressive growth fund!

That's a triple bogey...

And so with that, Mr. Mod, I allow the thread to get back on topic. Please 'scuse the soapboxy diversion.

I'll just comment to this one more time as well. My friend is with Chase, which you would think is better at this, but they're not. I have accounts at Chase as well, but they're managed by me. I also have accounts at Wells Fargo, also hands off by them. But of course, they're always asking if they can manage my accounts. The funniest is that they ask me for advice.
post #163 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by poke View Post

The companies that have had success with Android are long-term incumbents. Samsung and HTC both have established relationships with carriers in every territory and have had them since long before Apple entered the market. It would have been very easy for them to ship Android phones everywhere, very quickly. That's why we saw such a dramatic spike in Android sales. There are also markets where prepaid phones are more popular than contracts where Apple has had difficulty competing on cost (an issue they're expected to address this year). So there's a lot of friction involved in rolling a product out in the phone space.

Yup. Don't forget the subsidized low cost or free Android phones that people get without even having to think about - without even necessarily seeking.

Then again, incumbent status didn't mean much to Verizon once they got the iPhone.

Quote:
they'll need to do much more to compete. Android 3.0 doesn't appear to be up to the challenge.

Well, here is the key difference between phones and tablets - you have to compete on price and capabilities. There are no carrier subsidies, BOGO, etc.

Quote:
Personally I think this will play out just like the iPod. It's possible Apple will retain an even higher percentage of the tablet market because tablets are more difficult to build and there's stronger lock-in (if you switch to a different manufacturers tablet you lose your investment in apps and books and potentially music and movies).

I think Apple will maintain the majority of the tablet market, easily. There isn't anyone competing on experience, let alone price. There's no other logical conclusion.
post #164 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjw View Post

I think people are forgetting here that the average consumer, especially in Europe, I can't speak for the US, does not know anything about the huge advantages that an iPad has over the competition at the moment. [..] For a lot of people a touch screen tablet is going to be a touch screen tablet whether it is an iPad, Android tablet or TouchPad.

For the short term, sure. But just as with the iPod and then the iPhone, once they see their friends iPad... well, that as they say, will be that.

Even more than Tivo, the iPad is something that just doesn't really "click" until you get to see and play with it in person. I showed several people GarageBand over the weekend and that alone generated two sales. And so it goes and will go. When people talk about the importance of Apps, thats an example of it and that's the real differentiator - size, weight, batter life and price are just gravy.

Without the carrier or contract baggage, the iPad will be a totally different story from the iPhone.
post #165 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

The cheap tablets are going to come from supply and demand. A lot of folks will try coming out with products, find they don't sell, and sell out their inventory at a loss and get written off. Sucks for the manufacturer.

I don't think so. It's been over a year and proverbial flood of cheap knockoffs has yet to happen. I don't think it's really clear to most just how much of a price lead Apple has...
post #166 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbinkc View Post

So I did - with 4 week delivery! [...] I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.

Yup, because it's a national emergency that you can't get an iPad in less than a month

Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.

Cheap Android tablets will be just as successful as netbooks
post #167 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The only problem with being declared a monopoly, is that it narrows what you can do. It can't be seen as anti-competitive. Otherwise, no big deal.

This is why I don't think Apple really minds Android. It provides good cover, especially with their "millions and millions" of shipments. But when it comes to an offering that people go out of their way to choose, Apple is clearly the winner.
post #168 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by ltcompuser View Post

There are plenty of parents who get iPods for the their children instead of an iPhone. And, many adults may be perfectly fine with an Ipod Touch and not an iPhone.

As for IOS whithering away, I'm sure there will always be enough people willing to go for quality. Even if an Android phone was the same price I'd stick with Apple - all my devices are very nicely integrated. I also have the various apps that I've purchased, that wouldn't work on Android.

Apple's selling tons of Touches - and doing dynamite game sales on 'em. Probably as much for gaming and surfing as music and video consumption these days.

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post #169 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

This is very true. But, it's just a small fraction of that they're pulling in. Apple is going to generate about $7 to $10 billion a quarter on average this year. Even investing $4 billion in suppliers, and another couple of billion for parts in the year doesn't cover even one quarter's cash.

What are they planning with the increasing cash and investment portfolio? It's up to $61 billion as of the end of last quarter, and will be close to $67 billion even in this slowest of all quarters of the year.

Well, I'll be a bit off topic too if that's ok

One other option is to lower margins or prices, but I would not count on it.
For companies to purchase, Sony for content, LA Times, ABC for distribution. In other words, get totally vertically integrated. although I would think deep partnerships would be better. Shoot they have enough cash to launch there own satellite tv etc.
One thing I would like to see them do is kind of old school but they have the cash, so perhaps it possible... Open a research center. One path is basic research ala IBM and Watson type stuff. Another way is to run a VC type operation where Apple puts up cash in exchange for a cut. Have people come in and make their pitch just like a VC would; set them up on campus(isolated but accessible to apple experts) to do their stuff. So, for example, what if the makers of drop box had came in and gave pitch?
Just some thoughts, don't know if they have any merit. Sorry for the interruption.
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post #170 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olternaut View Post

How does the non-business geek invest in tech stocks? Is it simple as going to a website? What should I look out for and how much cash is reasonable to invest in a stock like Apple and still consider it disposable? I mean, for the investment to be worth it how many shares would I have to look at buying?

You invest as much of your hard earned money as you can lose without losing sleep.
You sound like an inexperienced investor. If so be very careful of Apple, it's on a high and could drop a bit.
Why not do paper investing for a while, just to learn.
post #171 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Ye of so little faith ((in Apple) and general market knowledge, incorrect facts and mostly improbable assumptions.

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post #172 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualia View Post

Like the iPod, it's not a necessity whereas phones are, ...

Err, no they're not. I don't have and have never had a mobile phone, though I do have an iPad.

You are being blinded by fashion and contemporary culture.
post #173 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiltedGreen View Post

Err, no they're not. I don't have and have never had a mobile phone, though I do have an iPad.

You are being blinded by fashion and contemporary culture.

'Fashion and contemporary culture'? Say what? For most people, mobile phones have become a must, and it certainly has absolutely nothing to do with what you mentioned. There's something called practicality and necessity,and like it or not things have changed. Maybe you don't have a social life, responsibilities, or spend all your time at home, but I can't imagine not being able to communicate or not giving people the ability to contact me if they need to. In general I hate prolonged phone conversations, but that has nothing to do with it. It's become a required tool for the mainstream.
post #174 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by KiltedGreen View Post

Err, no they're not. I don't have and have never had a mobile phone, though I do have an iPad.

You are being blinded by fashion and contemporary culture.

What you use your iPad for? If you still use fixed lines, why not use good old paper mail, read good old paper magazines and newspapers...

Its just hard to understand not having a cell. My livelihood depends on one. I only know of one person that doesn't have a mobile, ma grandpa and nana share one (so one of them is the person). Man, even my 8 year old nephew has one.
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post #175 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

.... If Apple sells $100 billion this financial year as increasingly seems possible, then cash will roll in at ever increasing rates. In 2012, it could be $10 to $13 billion a quarter. This is getting ridiculous. at some time they've got to do something with it. They have three choices.

One is to do a stock buyback, which I hope they won't do. They can give some back to shareholders directly. They can buy one or more very large companies, which I also hope they won't do.

But they WILL have to do something.

It's understandable that a lot of people are feeling the same way you are, but let me ask you this .... can you name a company or two that had so much cash in reserve that it actually created a "real" problem, other than in the shareholders eyes that thought that they were missing out on a dividend?

It's been said here before but I think it bears repeating. Apple is a GROWTH company, one of the better ones, in fact. That is the way that Apple investors reap a reward. One can very seldom "have it both ways".

You mentioned three choices for Apple .... I think there is a fourth one, and perhaps the most important one ..... save it for a "rainy day".

I know, I know .... it will be said ...."how much is necessary for a rainy day"? Who knows? Is there anyone out there who actually believes that the bad times are behind us? Let's face it .... we are in uncharted waters here. Governments all over the world are staring financial catastrophes in the face. The only time in recent years that the economy "performed well" was when everyone and their dog was borrowing on their credit so they could live "beyond their means". We could realistically be looking at a scenario that is worse than 2008 coming very soon. It might happen .... and if it did I would sure like to be a company that could ride out the storm, no matter how severe it got.

The part that a lot of people are not considering is that the tougher it gets .... the weaker that some of Apple's suppliers and or competition might get. There may be a lot of "opportunities" out there in the next few years and with 100 billion or so "in the bank" Apple will be able to dictate the terms of most M&As.

They say patience is a virtue. I think, in these times, it's a necessity. As a shareholder, I don't think we should let the stockpile of Apple $$$$ "burn a hole in our pocket".
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post #176 of 177
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Originally Posted by newbee View Post

It's understandable that a lot of people are feeling the same way you are, but let me ask you this .... can you name a company or two that had so much cash in reserve that it actually created a "real" problem, other than in the shareholders eyes that thought that they were missing out on a dividend?

It's been said here before but I think it bears repeating. Apple is a GROWTH company, one of the better ones, in fact. That is the way that Apple investors reap a reward. One can very seldom "have it both ways".

You mentioned three choices for Apple .... I think there is a fourth one, and perhaps the most important one ..... save it for a "rainy day".

I know, I know .... it will be said ...."how much is necessary for a rainy day"? Who knows? Is there anyone out there who actually believes that the bad times are behind us? Let's face it .... we are in uncharted waters here. Governments all over the world are staring financial catastrophes in the face. The only time in recent years that the economy "performed well" was when everyone and their dog was borrowing on their credit so they could live "beyond their means". We could realistically be looking at a scenario that is worse than 2008 coming very soon. It might happen .... and if it did I would sure like to be a company that could ride out the storm, no matter how severe it got.

The part that a lot of people are not considering is that the tougher it gets .... the weaker that some of Apple's suppliers and or competition might get. There may be a lot of "opportunities" out there in the next few years and with 100 billion or so "in the bank" Apple will be able to dictate the terms of most M&As.

They say patience is a virtue. I think, in these times, it's a necessity. As a shareholder, I don't think we should let the stockpile of Apple $$$$ "burn a hole in our pocket".

I'll just state one situation. A very large cash reserve can be dangerous. Now, it's true that Apple is so large that the idea of another company buying them is likely out of the question, but it's never entirely. And with stock prices on the downward drift, that immunity lessens.

Companies with large cash reserves have been bought by smaller companies, because that cash is working against the company being bought. So if Apple ends up with $75 billion, and their valuation drops to $250 billion, if the market, and Apple keep dropping, then the acquiring company need only have $175 billion in cash and stock for a 100% buyout. The situation gets worse if we have a big drop due to current market conditions.

I'm not saying this will happen, but it's just one example of where a very large cash reserve works against them.

I'm certainly not saying that Apple should buy something big, and if you've paid any attention to what I've been saying, you would know that, so it's not an issue of Apple's cash burning a hole in their pockets. But there does come a time where more cash serves no purpose, and something must be done with some of it.

What if Apple does nothing with it this year? They'll end up with $80 billion. Then what if they do nothing next year, and end up with $120 billion? At what point would you say that it's enough? Heck, if they end up with enough, I'll buy them!
post #177 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Look dude... This is not the 80's or 90's. This is not the same as the PC/Mac battle.
The geekdom needs to get it into their hard geeky skulls that hardware DOES NOT dictate success!!!! Its not about who has better specs!!!!!

Its the whole experience that captures peoples attention. Its the simplicity, smoothness, seemless integration between hardware/software. Its the customer service. Its the backbone support. Its the beauty of the product design aesthetics... Its about quality and durability, Its about third party accesorizing.... Its about Apps!!!! Its the cool factor..

Funny you mention smartphones... Its fun to watch the geek tech journalist bubble shower the net with articles about android leading the smartphone wars BUT they dont tell you who has more devices activated as a whole... Those numbers are so skewed they make George Bush seem impossible to lie! And that is not even with the 1 million Verizon iPhones that were sold last month..... Do you really think HTC will sell 1 million thunderbolts in opening weekend? LoL!!! You must be crazy!!!
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