Originally Posted by captbilly
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).
apples and oranges. It's better to compare Apple to HP or Acer than Microsoft... Microsoft makes zero personal computers. It makes/steals SW.
Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use).
The problem is that the smartphone market is a hyper growing market. Apple said it would be happy with _1%_ of the entire (dumb, feature, and smart phone market). It now is the largest maker of phones (by profit) in the world, and makes more $$ than all android manufacturers combined. I think they will be happy staying there.
Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category
user experience is the only category that matters to consumer purchasers... This is all about 'just works' vs the old windows model of 'mass configuration.' You're now in the 'billions' of units sold, and the critical thing is 'the next time I make a call, the next time I connect to the Internet... the next time install software.... it has to '_just_work_'
Of course, it doesn't matter that Apple blows away the competition in graphics performance (you don't bend pipes on tablet.... but you do move voxels....
You don't see Apple maintaining that cost/performance lead? How do you see any manufacturer getting the sophistication of OS/chipdesign/FWdesign/mass-production to a point that their costs are well below Apples? Samsung maybe.... but how does that make for developer to take advantage across the entire android line.
, and better quad core units are on the way)
and so is time travel and unicorns. But really, Apple has an advantage in that it can also add quad processors optimized for only their code and systems [nice to be a chip and HW designer as well as the FW and OS coder]
[....] Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
MS was not free, closed and didn't work well, and it beat Apple in 92.... Linux is free, open and works very well, and has what % of the PC market? Exactly how you justify that statement with logic, as the facts seem to be confusing? Either argue one point or the other. Free/Open/Good will take over the world... just like...? wait... I have no example of that... Apple will fail just like when MS pushed 'free/open/good' Windows... Wait... it wasn't? Hmmmm... Apple will fail because they can't keep up.... err, what... this is 7.5 9X faster than it's last device? errr.... Apple is too expensive! Wait? no 10" device has been released with a 2 year cost of ownership less than the iPad?
Hmmm... Exactly why will Apple _fail_?
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.
Of course he's worried about it. He has no monopoly on the market. :-). Apple must innovate or suffer the consequences. btw... I'm worried about mosquitos... am I afraid they will kill me... only if I'm not constantly making sure that the risk is minimized. And the best way to beat mosquitos is to move faster than they can.
Key point. Apple is laser focused in 2011 (more like focused on 2013) vs 1990. Tell me exactly what one business Google is in? Linux? Samsung? HP? RIM? When it comes to _PERSONAL COMPUTING_ Apple seems to be the only one that has a singular focus. That to me is why companies like Oracle, Starbucks, and McDonalds succeed.
[....]if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year).
and how do you see carriers [the impetus of android on the phone] being able to sell a non-phone device on a 900% year over year growth rate? On their good looks? Face it... you've got 30 flavors of Android, across 10 HW vendors, and countless carriers and 'care and feeding' ecosystems. You've got 3 flavors of iOS now, across 1 HW vendor, with 1 standalone ecosystem (mobile me, ITMS, appstore) . I think Apple will hold it's own at 50%+ of the 'personal/portable smart device' [internet enabled phones, media players, and 'tablets'], and is the major HW manufacturer in each category. Apple has a physical and online retail presence, a viable ecommerce system arguably better than Amazon, a better supply chain, and brand recognition, and a unified customer experience process. Name one other store that can do that? Best Buy? ATT? Fry's? Amazon? Ubuntu? Froogle?
in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, [.... but ]If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
That's just an opinion. It has no basis in fact, as you proved yourself with the Microsoft PC vs Linux argument.