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'Amazing' demand for iPad 2 seen as 'insurmountable lead' for Apple - Page 3

post #81 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Talk about revising history to build a straw man!

I was around during those days to experience this period first hand. I owned an IBM PC, IBM PC-XT and and IBM PC-jr. Apple never had a dominant market share of personal computers, and it was certainly not a Mac vs. Windows market.

IBM was the 800lb. gorilla in the room that drove adoption of Microsoft OS products. Even the clones (Compaq) had to be nearly 100% IBM compatible to survive. For years the question was "Is this IBM compatible?"

Android doesn't have a modern "IBM" relentlessly driving adoption of their OS. To compare the early days of the PC era with the early days of the Modern Tablet era is simply a fallacy.
post #82 of 177
That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.


Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.

In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Morky View Post

The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.

Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?
post #83 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

1. Apple never had a lead in smartphone marketshare.

2. You realize that if you sold 1 cell phone one month, and 6 months later you sold 9, that's a 900% increase Your reasoning is similar to that which was used when all the iPod competitors were coming out; the iPod has maintained a 70 - 90% marketshare for the past 10 YEARS now.

3. The highest market share the Mac ever had at any given time was around 20%.
post #84 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.


Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.

In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.

You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #85 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Natural monopolies are completely legal. But many people don't know that so yes, people will start crying soon.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #86 of 177
Quote:
Quote:
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?

Would be indeed
post #87 of 177
are they going to do BOGO for Android tablets?
post #88 of 177
Being an early adopter for the original iPad (I waited in line before the store opened when it came out, and was one of the first to pick up a 32GB model) I wasn't as enthused for the iPad 2 so I haven't bought one.

I mean it sounds nice that it has a faster processor, but the original already meets my needs for Netflix, surfing, and a couple of low profile games. I'd like to see more OS improvements, not necessarily hardware improvements. For example, I think getting files on and off the device just plain sucks. I also would like a better way to manage apps. The folders are too small and lack any real way of identifying what's in them other than the name. I don't necessarily want pages full of icons all the time.

I stopped in to Best Buy this Friday to look at a MacBook Air and coincidentally, it was when people were waiting in line for the iPad 2. The lines for iPad 2 were far greater than they were for the original. In fact it went around the corner of the store I visited. This surprised the hell out of me. However, a lot of new users are now fully on board with the Apple tablet.

I also had the opportunity to play with a Motorola Xoom. It seemed heavy, and the OS navigation didn't make a lot of sense to me. Angry Birds played fine though. :P
post #89 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

Xanax prescription run out? :-)

talking crap and mis-informing the readers here on AI -- people will read this GEEKAZOID's rant and believe it like its GOSPEL ... so i BLASTED HIM .... i feel better now ... and NO I don't need drugs -

DO U WANT A ZOLOFT or XANAX ??? or maybe u are PC troll too??? HERE TROLLY , TROLLY , TROLLY...

I was one of the LUCKY ONES, i hopped on a bus from the Port Authority in NYC and got my new 64GB White WiFi iPad2 friday at the Fairview North Bergen NJ store @ 5pm and I love it I am a HAPPY CAMPER and APPLE is my DRUG of CHOICE want a bite??

(;-)
post #90 of 177
Ho, hum, yawn! And where have we heard propaganda like this before? Oh, yeah, nobody will ever catch the iPhone. lol
post #91 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Dude, is this you? Seriously.


LOL.....perfect!

What is Apple's market share for real computers that cost over $1,000? The plastic junk at costco will never appeal to those that value nice things and a wonderful, efficient, virus free, relatively trouble free computing experience.

I have a cell phone that costco threw at me for free. Is this what Android users include in the hyper competitive market for mobile phones? What is Apple's share for smart phones that actually have some of the functionality of the iPhone?

And better yet, what is Apple's share of the PROFITS in these markets?

It looks like a lot of Android fans have adopted the Thurrott technique of looking for some number that might shed a negative light on our favorite fruit company. P. Thurrott focused on the market share numbers while the PC market fought over pennies of profit and Apple brought in fistfuls of cash, laughing all the way to the bank.

I see incredible, lust-worthy engineering that appeals to both men and women, combined with dominant cost advantages. Throw in the best apps and the overwhelming size and scope of the App store and a 3rd party accessory ecosystem and it just looks impossible to compete with.

My wife saw the short video on the smart cover and immediately decided to trade in her iPad. This is powerful stuff.

That said, I love competition and have the highest hopes for Android. It will help keep Apple sharp and focused and innovating.
post #92 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.

Says you! I'm broke and I must have an iPad2, so I put my toilet up for sale on craigslist last night!












Just kidding of course. And I'm not broke either, I will have an iPad2 soon enough.
post #93 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Qualia View Post

I wouldn't be surprised if the iPad ends up with a greater percentage of the tablet market than the iPod does of the PMP market. Like the iPod, it's not a necessity whereas phones are, so people won't settle for cheap knockoffs just because they have to, not to mention that the cheap knockoffs are absolute junk and even the expensive ones are pretty bad in quality whereas some of those Android phones seem pretty good (though not built as well as iPhones, of course).

Just as Apple haters focused on the Macs and PCs even long after Jobs conceded that battle and Apple was dominating the music market, I won't be surprised if they ignore the iPad's success and keep pointing out Android's marketshare over the iPhone (as if it were a failure!). You'd think that with such massive marketshare, all the developers would have migrated from the App Store by now; they must all be fanboys drinking the Kool-Aid!

Some people will have very limited uses for a tablet and may choose a different brand if they only wanted to serf the web. Of course that would require someone to release a tablet that is significantly cheaper then the iPad. That was widely predicted a year ago, but it seems that isn't going to materialize. Google is still good enough to be an underdog, but they will continue to have trouble competing with too many offerings on the table. Google tablets will also suffer from supply chain issues related to too many different devices out there. As long as they never stagnate, Apple will stay on top.

It might be interesting if they could do the same to the phone market if they release a lower-end iPhone to compete with the Android market. A superior supply chain coupled with a very good product might allow them to overtake the low-end smartphone market where Android is making large share gains.
post #94 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by REC View Post

Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage.

From my useless trove of precious anecdotal data, I call this the grandma market. Little Timmy wants an XBox so badly and grandma wants very much to make her grandson happy so she goes out to get an XBox and seeing as how much it will eat up her retirement check she settles for the Chinese knock-off that costs a third of but looks close enough to an XBox and gets that for little Timmy instead.

When the present gets unwrapped is when we find out if little Timmy will grow up to be a fine upstanding citizen that his parents could be proud of or just another sleazy politician (or worse a Wall Street fat cat).
post #95 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

While watching the iPad 2 event I wondered why Apple was making so many digs at the competition. I said to myself, they already own the market they would easily have the majority of the profit and will easily take ⅓ to ½ of the profits, like with the iPhone.

But I dont think I was thinking big enough. I think Apple wants this to the iPod all over again. A natural monopoly. They will surely make the iPad the 2nd most profitable segment of their business this year, but if they can make this another iPod in terms of marketshare despite growth it could be Apples most profitable segment in a few years.

I certainly contributed to it. After several attempts over the weekend to buy an iPad at several locations, I succumbed at bought them online last night. I was surprised a bit at the shipping time, April 14th.

Bought a white 64GB/3G for me and a white 16GB/3G as a long-overdue Xmas gift. They really hit the mark with the 2nd-gen.

Glad to have you back solips!
post #96 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_K View Post

By end of 2012 (if the world hasn't collapsed), they'll have sold more than 100 million iPads and counting...


The Mac was revolutionary but Windows knew more how to take advantage of it than Apple, relegating the Mac to a niche product.

.......

From someone who lived through it; the Business world wouldn't buy PCs until IBM made one. It didn't matter that the Mac was better it wasn't made by IBM. The Business world was the only one that could buy enough PCs to make it a realistic market ( remember the $10000 Compaqs?) There wasn't a very big home market for computers that cost a month's salary.

As a result we were stuck with DOS and the early versions of windows. XP was the first version that was as good as the first Mac. God, it feels like we were wandering in the desert for 15 years.
post #97 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

You're absolutely right. At the moment it's hard to see how anyone could come up with anything close to the same hardware performance for the same price. I don't doubt Samsung and Motorola will be scrambling at the moment to try and come up with a way to at least match Apple's hardware, but lets face it, they almost did that with iPad 1, but couldn't match the price, then iPad 2 came along.

Once they find a way to match iPad 2's hardware (and who knows at what cost), iPad 3 will be along.

The question is how can Motorola/Samsung et al jump two generations of iPad hardware while maintaining price parity? Even if they could match the iPad hardware performance for the same cost right now, Apple's advantage in terms of number of apps would still put the iPad as the sensible choice to buy.

Very astute!

I watched some Xoom demo and they showed, briefly, some primitive video editing software -- my initial thought was Oh-Oh Motorola is tipping their hand that they will supply some "House Apps" to compete with Apple's "House Apps".

Of course, the iMovie preso at the iPad 2 announce put those fears to bed.


But, on reflection, say MMI, Sammy or any of the "Android tab-mfgrs-to-be", wants to differentiate themself by supplying a "House App".

How would they be able to do that and limit it to their hardware only -- seems to me that it it would soon be running on any Android tablet -- maybe even the Playbook..


OTH, Apple iOS and apps run only on Apple hardware -- if you want the sizzle, you gotta' buy the steak!

I don't know how to quantify this except as a conundrum for developing "House Apps":

1) If you are Apple -- the more you do, the aheader you get!

2) If you are an Android tab mfgr. -- the more you do, the behinder you get!

.
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post #98 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Overwhelming market share is not enough to declare a company a monopoly deserving of regulation. You also have to show that a) there are significant barriers to entry and b) the company has committed actions in restraint of trade. I don't think anyone in his right mind would claim that a significant barrier to entry exists in the tablet market and Apple's lawyers, so far, have shown that they are smart enough to keep Apple from committing the sort of criminal antitrust acts that MS was convicted of.
post #99 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

They used $3.9 bn of their "pile of cash", according to Tim Cook, "to secure component supplies and capacity".

This is exactly what you want Apple to do with their cash, re-invest it in a business that is doubling in growth with large margins

http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20110124/tk-3/
post #100 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

The difference is that Apple has learned from their failure. You can look at the iPod for an example. They are willing to price their products as low as the competition is pricing theirs.

I think apple was prepared to lower the cost of iPad2 if Samsung or Motorola had come out with products that were competitive with the 499. I was ready for a 350 price during Mr Jobs presentation. And because Apple has the supply chain that they did not have with the original Macs, it's ready to challenge anyone with enough cajones to step to the plate.
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post #101 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

It's foolish to think that consumers see the iPad and the knockoffs as equal in the marketplace, meaning they'll simply buy a Xoom since the iPad is temporarily sold out. The only people buying Xooms are those who are purposefully, intentionally NOT buying an iPad.

The iPod "natural monopoly" analogy is interesting and plausible, but the tablet market is still too nascent to really make that call just yet. Apple has an extraordinary lead here, and it may well be insurmountable. I personally don't see any competitor matching what Apple has to offer. Cheaper tablets will sell, but not very well. People are willing to pay for premium devices such as Apples, as evidenced by Mac sales outpacing the overall industry for the past 19 quarters.

I would agree except that Android has more than a foothold in the phone space at this point, largely thanks to the period of AT&T exclusivity. There are a lot of Android phone users out there that will stick with their platform, which may give Android tablets a foothold by extension. My larger point is, if the market for tablets reaches, say 500M, can Apple ever make close to that many? Perhaps, if the growth is incremental enough, but man, that's a lot of iPads.
post #102 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Very astute!

I watched some Xoom demo and they showed, briefly, some primitive video editing software -- my initial thought was Oh-Oh Motorola is tipping their hand that they will supply some "House Apps" to compete with Apple's "House Apps".

Of course, the iMovie preso at the iPad 2 announce put those fears to bed.


But, on reflection, say MMI, Sammy or any of the "Android tab-mfgrs-to-be", wants to differentiate themself by supplying a "House App".
.

Heh, if Samsung and MMI are thinking of offering their own "house apps", I don't think they can come up with a bigger rock to tie to their necks and jump into a lake with. [We can't already match Apple in the hardware department where we at least have some expertise so let's go at them in the software department where we have near-zero expertise.]

A lot of companies think writing software is just a matter of hiring software engineers. If Microsoft, the biggest software company in the world, can't even match Apple in software, what chance do Samsung and Moto have? About as much chance as Sony. (Snigger, snigger, muffled laugh.)
post #103 of 177
This is seriously incredible considering the ho-hum tablet market forecast one year ago. I hear people bashing the iPad occasionally, and it's either because they read something on some asshat blog, or they're the type that doesn't want to want what other people want, so they have to knock it down to calm their wanting-ness. Anyone who has actually used one loves it.

Whatever, this is amazing stuff.
post #104 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morky View Post

My larger point is, if the market for tablets reaches, say 500M, can Apple ever make close to that many?

Yes, all those idle Android tablet mfg capacity will be making iPads on contract instead. And this is not completely tongue-in-cheek.
post #105 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

I don't mind Apple having a monopoly. But it depends on how the market is defined. There are people who have been trying to get the MAC declared a monopoly, because it's the only computer system that's a, uh, Mac, and so controls the Mac market.

The only problem with being declared a monopoly, is that it narrows what you can do. It can't be seen as anti-competitive. Otherwise, no big deal. The iPod could be declared a monopoly in the USA, because it's got 73% marketshare, and has for years. But no one's bothered.

MS Office could be declared one as well, because it's got a 95% marketshare in office software, but no one's bothered there either.
post #106 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Oh, there are some great, and sophisticated apps out there from third parties in all categories. You'd be amazed at some of it.

One of the things that Apple has in its back pocket that no other has is its Pro and Prosumer apps.

While, I don't expect to see Final Cut on the iPad...

I do see iPad apps that interface with Final Cut.

iOS 4.3 contains APIs for all the ProRes codecs that allow fast, efficient editing of HD video.

iOS 4.3 contains many of OS X graphics APIs, e.g. Bezier Curves that are key to CAD, image editing, rotoscoping, image tracking.

I suspect that these APIs were ported to iOS for reasons to be revealed in the coming months.

These are capabilities that Apple and iOS developers can exploit that may never be available on competitive platforms.
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post #107 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by tomlawler View Post

If samsung's sell thru for their galaxy tab was "smooth", then this is what "rough" looks like.

Rough trade? I thought my transaction was surprisingly "smooth".
post #108 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

Some people will have very limited uses for a tablet and may choose a different brand if they only wanted to serf the web. Of course that would require someone to release a tablet that is significantly cheaper then the iPad. That was widely predicted a year ago, but it seems that isn't going to materialize. Google is still good enough to be an underdog, but they will continue to have trouble competing with too many offerings on the table. Google tablets will also suffer from supply chain issues related to too many different devices out there. As long as they never stagnate, Apple will stay on top.

It might be interesting if they could do the same to the phone market if they release a lower-end iPhone to compete with the Android market. A superior supply chain coupled with a very good product might allow them to overtake the low-end smartphone market where Android is making large share gains.

Some people have been rooting the Nook Color and putting Android 2.1 to 2.3 on it. One guy even put Honeycomb on, but I don't know how well it works with that.

I have to admit I was surprised when I looked at the teardown for it. It's a better device than I though it was. It's got a Cortex 8, with 512MB RAM, 8GB flash, a gpu, forget which one, an SD slot. So it's not at all that bad. It goes for $250, but some people have found it for $200.

The price may be subsidized though, as it's assumed the Kindle is. If so, it would cost more if sold as a tablet, but I don't know by how much.
post #109 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capnbob View Post

Rough trade? I thought my transaction was surprisingly "smooth".

The only roughness with buying my iPad 2 was the 18 different models and 10 different Smart Covers to choose from.
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post #110 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by min_t View Post

The difference is that Apple has learned from their failure. You can look at the iPod for an example. They are willing to price their products as low as the competition is pricing theirs.

I think apple was prepared to lower the cost of iPad2 if Samsung or Motorola had come out with products that were competitive with the 499. I was ready for a 350 price during Mr Jobs presentation. And because Apple has the supply chain that they did not have with the original Macs, it's ready to challenge anyone with enough cajones to step to the plate.

I wasn't ready for $350. I don't think they could make a profit on that. But they could have lowered the price by just a bit, and it would have cleared out the major makers.

For example, if they could have dropped the price to $479, and the 3G/GPS upgrade to $100, they would have damaged the Xoom pricing beyond repair. The Xoom is $799 for 32Gb and 3/4G, this would have dropped Apple's to $679 for the same configuration, and to $779 for the 64GB model, dropping it below the Xoom.

But Apple might not have been able to do that. They've already stated last year that they're going with lower margins. The new touch screen is supposed to be costing Apple $30 more than the old one, and that would be enough to prevent a price cut.

We can't just cut some arbitrary number off a product's price and assume it can be done.
post #111 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post

+1
I think the key post iPad 2 story will be is laptop cannibalization.... I see growth in laptops to drop 50%. Everyone that needs one has one, and all those people who have one don't need another one.

Samsung, Motorola, BB... they aren't fighting for 2nd place, they're fighting for marketplace relevancy.

Apple is the only company that seems to have leadership/growth/dominance/convergance across all those lines.

I think that Apple demonstrated a lot of foresight on the tablet market:

-They recognized that, although Apple can gain market share, the notebook market is saturated. What do people want, to run their Word documents faster?

-They recognized that the "netbook" category, especially those in the 8-11 inch range, don't really provide any sort of quality or experiential difference relative to notebooks. Yet, they covered that section with the MacBook Airs with very little compromise on features.

-They took their time in developing a solid product, both in hardware and software. You can see the difference when you compare this to rushed-out products like the Xoom.

-They got great deals on their suppliers/manufacturers, allowing them to hit the bottom of the price points for once. Usually, people pay a premium.

-They knew that a successful tablet (at least in 2010-2011) would be all touch, no physical keyboard, no rotating hinge, and run mobile software rather than personal computer software. They also provided a top-notch software environment (App Store + 1st party software like Pages).

It's no wonder that Apple has cornered this market. Everyone mocked them last January but once again they are all struggling to catch up now.
post #112 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by captbilly View Post

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

No offence, but your analysis and your numbers are all way off. You're talking like it's still 1995. It isn't.

Apple's market share is much closer to 8-9% for starters, and what percentage of the market Apple had in the early days of the computer industry 20 or more years ago is hardly relevant to today's market. If you eliminate the business segments and talk only about consumer computer purchases Apple is close to 25% of the current market and growing at many times the rate of it's competitors.

Channel sales of Android powered handsets are indeed up, but the iPhone is still the most popular phone in the market by a wide margin and picked by consumers many multiple times more than any particular Android phone. iOS as a platform is also surging far ahead of Android, selling far more devices year to year and capturing a bigger slice of the market year by year. iPhone and iOS are both clearly the dominant players in any rational assessment of the facts. Android only "wins" if you engage in the false metrics of comparing all Android handsets to a single iPhone, or comparing them on an OS to OS level, but leaving out all the iOS devices that aren't "phones."

Furthermore, the only Android tablets that are even close to release are niche players. They use 16:9 formats, or a small screen, and aimed at a very specific young, male, "techie" demographic. Many of these are also only available in the USA and won't be sold world-wide as iPad is. The only product I'm even aware of that will seriously compete against the iPad across all markets in all countries and match it feature for feature, is the WebOS tablet from HP that isn't out yet.

Apple not only has the market to itself, it has at least a full year on the competition. They would have to sit still and wait for a year for the rest to catch up, or someone has to leapfrog over them. both seem really unlikely IMO.
post #113 of 177
As Balmer and his flying monkey brigade announce there won't be ANYTHING from Nokia/Microshaft until next year..... teehee... can you say, "BYE BYE" ????
post #114 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

Seems to me that Apple have already demonstrated what they are spending their money on ... a huge data center and a policy of buying up massive quantities of parts/components for their devices. The smart thing about that is it benefits Apple in two ways ... adds to their sales/bottom line and freezes out their competition. Give me a company with no debt and a ton of $$$$$ anytime.
Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
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Apple is not Appl ...... Please learn the difference!    
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post #115 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post

hope the "old days" of lack of inventory while others catch up won't affect future sales perhaps people will just accept as in the last many introductions, "sell out" and stay loyal
i would
but apple must respond quickly to inventory issues
also is apple facing a fragmentation issue, with all the combinations available
i wonder if there is a stat for which are the most popular #1 #2 #3
i also wonder how many were just bought to sell on ebay or europe

You bring up a very good point -- all the different SKUs of the iPad and iPhone.


It is so unlike Apple to offer multiple, overlapping products.


I was surprised that Apple offered a CDMA iP4 instead of a combined GSM/CDMA world phone.


I was even more surprised that they did the same thing with the iPad 2.


We know, from what Tim Cook has said, that Apple plans to offer world iDevices -- just that currently there are too many sacrifices (cost, availability, battery).


The old Apple would have done nothing -- or waited until it became practical.


The fact that, color aside, Apple doubled their SKUs -- tells me that they plan to "own" the tablet market and gain the market share lead in the smart phone market.


They are willing to sacrifice interchangeability/universality and create manufacturing/distribution problems to attain these ends.

I do believe that Apple is serious... very serious!

.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #116 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

Apple not only has the market to itself, it has at least a full year on the competition. They would have to sit still and wait for a year for the rest to catch up, or someone has to leapfrog over them. both seem really unlikely IMO.

That assumes that Android Tablets are equal to the original iPad. Hardware spec-wise, yes they surpass, but not overall experience or "polish." Therefore, the iPad is certainly MORE than 1 year ahead of the competition.

Food for thought:

When Apple launched the iPhone (Jan 2007), Steve Jobs said it was 5 years ahead of the competition. Well, a bit over 4 years later and I still don't anything as widely "finished" or "polished" as iOS - Android included. Keep in mind that iOS has not fundamentally changed since launch (incremental feature updates along the way, of course). But the core OS is the same, and it trumps all competitors to this day. The closest I would say would actually be WinPhone 7, due to MSFT's (relatively) tight grip on hardware specs and end-user experience. But that just came out in October, nearly 4 years after the iPhone was debuted, and lacks many features users want.
post #117 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?

Based on what they've said, I don't see them paying a dividend anytime soon, and if they do, I'll just accept it on what I already hold.

I just suspect if Apple do any serious spending with the cash, even if they get the best deal in the world, the market will ding the stock.
post #118 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by rhyde View Post

Actually, there was a brief period when the Apple II line bested the TRS-80 (the king of the hill at the time); alas, the IBM PC came out shortly after that and the rest, as they say, is history.

TRS-80?

Are you "Trash Talking?"

... take out the papers and the trash -- or you don't get no spendin' cash...

Yakkity-Yack -- don't talk back!
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #119 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

1) If you are Apple -- the more you do, the aheader you get!

2) If you are an Android tab mfgr. -- the more you do, the behinder you get!

.

You make some good points, however with aheader and behinder, I'd like to specifically congratulate you on your brilliantly poor English!!!!
post #120 of 177
Quote:
Originally Posted by Granmastak View Post

Uh no! not at all. Europeans are very gadget oriented and when I took my ipad1 there last spring, everyone knew about it even if it wasn't available in any market there, except the gray market! They actually warned me to watch out and some offered to buy it from me as high as 1200 Euros.

I certainly know enough people here who wouldn't know the difference either - 'Apple is more expensive, look at this other tablet!' type of thing.

On the phone side (though clearly only having AT&T has been an issue influencing some purchasing decisions), I recently had another parent I know walk up and start asking me what anti-virus I'm running on my phone. Haha. You know, my Droid? Don't you have a Droid? I just laughed.

Anyway, the consumers who don't know the difference will be the ones installing the trojans, running anti-virus on their PCs - oops, I mean tablets now!, and wondering where all the cool apps are.
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