Originally Posted by captbilly
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
No offence, but your analysis and your numbers are all way off. You're talking like it's still 1995. It isn't.
Apple's market share is much closer to 8-9% for starters, and what percentage of the market Apple had in the early days of the computer industry 20 or more years ago is hardly relevant to today's market. If you eliminate the business segments and talk only about consumer
computer purchases Apple is close to 25% of the current market and growing at many times the rate of it's competitors.
Channel sales of Android powered handsets are indeed up, but the iPhone is still the most popular phone in the market by a wide margin and picked by consumers many multiple times more than any particular Android phone. iOS as a platform
is also surging far ahead of Android, selling far more devices year to year and capturing a bigger slice of the market year by year. iPhone and iOS are both clearly the dominant players in any rational assessment of the facts. Android only "wins" if you engage in the false metrics of comparing all Android handsets to a single iPhone, or comparing them on an OS to OS level, but leaving out all the iOS devices that aren't "phones."
Furthermore, the only Android tablets that are even close to release are niche players
. They use 16:9 formats, or a small screen, and aimed at a very specific young, male, "techie" demographic. Many of these are also only available in the USA and won't be sold world-wide as iPad is. The only product I'm even aware of that will seriously compete against the iPad across all markets in all countries and match it feature for feature, is the WebOS tablet from HP that isn't out yet.
Apple not only has the market to itself, it has at least a full year
on the competition. They would have to sit still and wait for a year for the rest to catch up, or someone has to leapfrog over them. both seem really unlikely IMO.