'Amazing' demand for iPad 2 seen as 'insurmountable lead' for Apple - Page 3

Originally Posted by captbilly

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Originally Posted by Morky

The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.

Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?

Originally Posted by captbilly

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Originally Posted by TBell

That is unlikely. People don't need a tablet. They want one. You aren't going to go buy an Android based Tablet if you really want an iPad just because you have to wait a little while for one.


Further, Android Tablets cost more and perform less well. You would be disappointed with your purchase. I think the contender to watch will be WebOS if HP can gain developer interest.

In the Ann Arbor Michigan Store on Saturday (you know the next day), there was a line about forty people deep. Strange since I asked the Store people how many the Store had. The answer was twenty. Perhaps they were giving out first access to new shipments. The point is people who want a serious Tablet are going to wait for the iPad.

Originally Posted by lkrupp

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Quote:
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?

Originally Posted by tundraboy

Xanax prescription run out? :-)

Originally Posted by Apple ][

Dude, is this you? Seriously.

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich

You don't need a toilet either, but most people consider them essential to modern living.

Originally Posted by Qualia

I wouldn't be surprised if the iPad ends up with a greater percentage of the tablet market than the iPod does of the PMP market. Like the iPod, it's not a necessity whereas phones are, so people won't settle for cheap knockoffs just because they have to, not to mention that the cheap knockoffs are absolute junk and even the expensive ones are pretty bad in quality whereas some of those Android phones seem pretty good (though not built as well as iPhones, of course).

Just as Apple haters focused on the Macs and PCs even long after Jobs conceded that battle and Apple was dominating the music market, I won't be surprised if they ignore the iPad's success and keep pointing out Android's marketshare over the iPhone (as if it were a failure!). You'd think that with such massive marketshare, all the developers would have migrated from the App Store by now; they must all be fanboys drinking the Kool-Aid!

Originally Posted by REC

Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage.

Originally Posted by solipsism

While watching the iPad 2 event I wondered why Apple was making so many digs at the competition. I said to myself, they already own the market they would easily have the majority of the profit and will easily take ⅓ to ½ of the profits, like with the iPhone.

But I dont think I was thinking big enough. I think Apple wants this to the iPod all over again. A natural monopoly. They will surely make the iPad the 2nd most profitable segment of their business this year, but if they can make this another iPod in terms of marketshare despite growth it could be Apples most profitable segment in a few years.

Originally Posted by A_K

By end of 2012 (if the world hasn't collapsed), they'll have sold more than 100 million iPads and counting...


The Mac was revolutionary but Windows knew more how to take advantage of it than Apple, relegating the Mac to a niche product.

.......

Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson

You're absolutely right. At the moment it's hard to see how anyone could come up with anything close to the same hardware performance for the same price. I don't doubt Samsung and Motorola will be scrambling at the moment to try and come up with a way to at least match Apple's hardware, but lets face it, they almost did that with iPad 1, but couldn't match the price, then iPad 2 came along.

Once they find a way to match iPad 2's hardware (and who knows at what cost), iPad 3 will be along.

The question is how can Motorola/Samsung et al jump two generations of iPad hardware while maintaining price parity? Even if they could match the iPad hardware performance for the same cost right now, Apple's advantage in terms of number of apps would still put the iPad as the sensible choice to buy.

Originally Posted by lkrupp

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

Originally Posted by captbilly

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Originally Posted by AppleStud

It's foolish to think that consumers see the iPad and the knockoffs as equal in the marketplace, meaning they'll simply buy a Xoom since the iPad is temporarily sold out. The only people buying Xooms are those who are purposefully, intentionally NOT buying an iPad.

The iPod "natural monopoly" analogy is interesting and plausible, but the tablet market is still too nascent to really make that call just yet. Apple has an extraordinary lead here, and it may well be insurmountable. I personally don't see any competitor matching what Apple has to offer. Cheaper tablets will sell, but not very well. People are willing to pay for premium devices such as Apples, as evidenced by Mac sales outpacing the overall industry for the past 19 quarters.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

Very astute!

I watched some Xoom demo and they showed, briefly, some primitive video editing software -- my initial thought was Oh-Oh Motorola is tipping their hand that they will supply some "House Apps" to compete with Apple's "House Apps".

Of course, the iMovie preso at the iPad 2 announce put those fears to bed.


But, on reflection, say MMI, Sammy or any of the "Android tab-mfgrs-to-be", wants to differentiate themself by supplying a "House App".
.

Originally Posted by Morky

My larger point is, if the market for tablets reaches, say 500M, can Apple ever make close to that many?

Originally Posted by lkrupp

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Originally Posted by melgross

Oh, there are some great, and sophisticated apps out there from third parties in all categories. You'd be amazed at some of it.

Originally Posted by tomlawler

If samsung's sell thru for their galaxy tab was "smooth", then this is what "rough" looks like.

Originally Posted by esummers

Some people will have very limited uses for a tablet and may choose a different brand if they only wanted to serf the web. Of course that would require someone to release a tablet that is significantly cheaper then the iPad. That was widely predicted a year ago, but it seems that isn't going to materialize. Google is still good enough to be an underdog, but they will continue to have trouble competing with too many offerings on the table. Google tablets will also suffer from supply chain issues related to too many different devices out there. As long as they never stagnate, Apple will stay on top.

It might be interesting if they could do the same to the phone market if they release a lower-end iPhone to compete with the Android market. A superior supply chain coupled with a very good product might allow them to overtake the low-end smartphone market where Android is making large share gains.

Originally Posted by Capnbob

Rough trade? I thought my transaction was surprisingly "smooth".

Originally Posted by min_t

The difference is that Apple has learned from their failure. You can look at the iPod for an example. They are willing to price their products as low as the competition is pricing theirs.

I think apple was prepared to lower the cost of iPad2 if Samsung or Motorola had come out with products that were competitive with the 499. I was ready for a 350 price during Mr Jobs presentation. And because Apple has the supply chain that they did not have with the original Macs, it's ready to challenge anyone with enough cajones to step to the plate.

Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff

+1
I think the key post iPad 2 story will be is laptop cannibalization.... I see growth in laptops to drop 50%. Everyone that needs one has one, and all those people who have one don't need another one.

Samsung, Motorola, BB... they aren't fighting for 2nd place, they're fighting for marketplace relevancy.

Apple is the only company that seems to have leadership/growth/dominance/convergance across all those lines.

Originally Posted by captbilly

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

Originally Posted by NOFEER

hope the "old days" of lack of inventory while others catch up won't affect future sales perhaps people will just accept as in the last many introductions, "sell out" and stay loyal
i would
but apple must respond quickly to inventory issues
also is apple facing a fragmentation issue, with all the combinations available
i wonder if there is a stat for which are the most popular #1 #2 #3
i also wonder how many were just bought to sell on ebay or europe

Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody

Apple not only has the market to itself, it has at least a full year on the competition. They would have to sit still and wait for a year for the rest to catch up, or someone has to leapfrog over them. both seem really unlikely IMO.

Originally Posted by melgross

Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?

Originally Posted by rhyde

Actually, there was a brief period when the Apple II line bested the TRS-80 (the king of the hill at the time); alas, the IBM PC came out shortly after that and the rest, as they say, is history.

Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum

1) If you are Apple -- the more you do, the aheader you get!

2) If you are an Android tab mfgr. -- the more you do, the behinder you get!

.

Originally Posted by Granmastak

Uh no! not at all. Europeans are very gadget oriented and when I took my ipad1 there last spring, everyone knew about it even if it wasn't available in any market there, except the gray market! They actually warned me to watch out and some offered to buy it from me as high as 1200 Euros.