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Sellout of latest iPad 2 shipment raises questions about Apple's international launch

post #1 of 121
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New shipments of the iPad 2 to some Apple stores around the country on Tuesday immediately sold out, raising questions for one analyst about how much inventory Apple will have available for next week's international launch.

Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities checked with stores in New York City and San Francisco on Tuesday, and found that a few stores received additional shipments of the iPad 2. All of those that had a delivery sold out this morning, or will sell out over the next couple of hours, he said.

Not all Apple stores received iPad 2 shipments this morning, and those that did receive new units to sell saw much smaller quantities than last Friday's launch.

A number of stores opened an hour early on Tuesday in anticipation of having a new supply of iPads. However, some customers around the country lined up at stores that did in fact open an hour early, but without any of the iPad 2 in stock.

"The lines to buy the iPad 2 in New York City and San Francisco were again quite a spectacle this morning, a trend we believe will occur throughout the week," White wrote in a note to investors. "In New York City, three of the four stores already sold out of the iPad 2 in the first couple of hours this morning, and tickets were handed out at the flagship store to help people avoid waiting in line unnecessarily.

"Additionally, the flagship San Francisco store opened an hour early and was also handing out tickets to a line of well over 400 people. Those at the end of this line were told the likelihood of getting an iPad 2 this morning were slim."

White said that just one of three stores in San Francisco received new shipments Tuesday morning.



Given the limited availability and strong demand for the iPad 2 in the U.S. alone, White has questioned whether Apple will have enough supply for an international launch scheduled for March 25. The iPad 2 is set to launch in more than two dozen countries next Friday, though the Japanese launch has been delayed due to the recent earthquake disaster.

Last year, Apple was forced to delay the international launch of the first-generation iPad by a month. Demand for the first-generation device was greater than Apple had anticipated, and the company could not fulfill U.S.-only orders.

The iPad 2 is still scheduled to go on sale March 25 in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K. Apple has said that availability for many more countries around the world will occur in the coming months. Further international availability and pricing will be announced at a later date.
post #2 of 121
Was at the store in Cincinatti this morning at 8 am. Should have gotten there at 6 am. At 8 am there were about 200 people and only the first 70 or so got an ipad. At least they told us quickly.

I was at Best Buy at lunch, and they had two on display. They said they had about 70 on hand at launch and none since.

I would guess they are either just ramping or there is a major constraint on some part.

Back of the envelope calc for day 1 = 400k:
200 ish Apple stores at 1000 ipads each = 200k
10,000 distrbution points at 20 per (Best Buy, Target, ATT etc) = 200k
Online orders = 0 (they didnt ship any day one right?)

So in general I would guess they shipped between 350-550K on day one with ZERO online orders fufilled. I dont think it is conceivable that they thought this would meet demand. Hence not allowing pre-orders so they could push online orders out a little and attempt to stock up.

I would say its looking pretty grim for the rest of the world in terms of March 25 Shipments.
post #3 of 121
There was a line here in Austin this AM at the temp downtown Austin store. My wife said that UPS delivered over 100 boxes, each the size of 8 iPads. They didn't sell out yesterday, but expect to today. They only had the 64GB black models and a few white 16GB available.
post #4 of 121
Its the iPhone4 all over again. A month after the launch you still had to line up at 7 am. Not many manufacturers of anything at all have this 'problem'. Everybody just has to chill and put their purchase back at least a month. Ouch!
post #5 of 121
I was afraid if this...
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post #6 of 121
give me an effing break. Here we go with perception used to screw with the stock.
Look, ipad 2 is a hit. I held it in my hand today at the Apple store right across the street from my house. It is awesome. But those who want it will get it. Wait!!!!!
Hell, why is it a bummer if you can't get it right right now?
post #7 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Last year, Apple was forced to delay the international launch of the iPad 2 by a month.

oops
post #8 of 121
Artificial supply shortage to drive demand - lineups and mass impulse buying expedited.
How do you drive a market to covet your product - tell them it's in limited supply.
This tactic is routine in a lot of business. People want what they can't have.

Nowhere is this practiced more then in the tech industry.
Also a great way to determine and monitor market demand.

Could this be the case here? The timing of the international release is interesting. It's different from their iPhone strategy, but that may be because of carriers.
post #9 of 121
I would imagine that the international inventory is already in transit. Apple has sold out the US allotment but has most likely allocated substantial quantities for the the international rollout.

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post #10 of 121
The iPad demand is found outside the US, right? Apple knows this, right? Constrained shipments in the US are for a reason...the launch of this year's iPad outside the US will go on as planned.\
post #11 of 121
They should continue with the international launch as planned, but don't give the foreigners too many iPads. Make them wait in long lines, just like everybody else has to do here in the US.
post #12 of 121
If only I had known they had the iPad 2 out last year, all of this could have been avoided.
tsk tsk
post #13 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mode View Post

Artificial supply shortage to drive demand - lineups and mass impulse buying expedited.
How do you drive a market to covet your product - tell them it's in limited supply.
This tactic is routine in a lot of business. People want what they can't have.

Nowhere is this practiced more then in the tech industry.
Also a great way to determine and monitor market demand.

Could this be the case here? The timing of the international release is interesting. It's different from their iPhone strategy, but that may be because of carriers.

With initial reports estimating that some 1 million were sold in its opening weekend, it doesn't seem like Apple is artificially restricting supplies.
post #14 of 121
Good problem to have. Better than having to explain why 'sales in' were way higher than 'sales out'!
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post #15 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

give me an effing break. Here we go with perception used to screw with the stock.
Look, ipad 2 is a hit. I held it in my hand today at the Apple store right across the street from my house. It is awesome. But those who want it will get it. Wait!!!!!
Hell, why is it a bummer if you can't get it right right now?

Having to wait is one thing, having people line up for hours to be disappointed is another. No doubt, the iPad is a hit and it will sell millions. I just worry about the Apple brand. My belief (and I know many don't agree) is that in small doses these shortages drive excitement, but if they are too frequent I worry about engendering resentment. People (at least in America) want to root for the underdog but all too often they like to see the big guy brought low.

Apple isn't the little guy anymore!
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post #16 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mode View Post

Artificial supply shortage to drive demand - lineups and mass impulse buying expedited.
How do you drive a market to covet your product - tell them it's in limited supply.
This tactic is routine in a lot of business. People want what they can't have.

Nowhere is this practiced more then in the tech industry.
Also a great way to determine and monitor market demand.

Could this be the case here? The timing of the international release is interesting. It's different from their iPhone strategy, but that may be because of carriers.

Perhaps Xoom, Playbook and Galaxy sales departments should try that, it might help . Apple on the other hand really sells everything they can make. Hard to take for Apple haters I know, my heart goes out to them.
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post #17 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mode View Post

Artificial supply shortage to drive demand - lineups and mass impulse buying expedited.
How do you drive a market to covet your product - tell them it's in limited supply.
This tactic is routine in a lot of business. People want what they can't have.

Nowhere is this practiced more then in the tech industry.
Also a great way to determine and monitor market demand.

Could this be the case here? The timing of the international release is interesting. It's different from their iPhone strategy, but that may be because of carriers.

You don't really believe this, do you? Maybe Apple paid all those people to line up to create an impression of huge demand? I think you need to put your tin foil hat away and go and try an iPad 2. The demand is driven by its awesomeness. Apple can sell as many as they can produce. The shortage is a byproduct of Apple's success with the iPad. I doubt if the shortage plays into Apple's hands here, though in some cases I am sure you are right. Its a risky strategy, however.
post #18 of 121
At least Motorola got one thing right in their commercial - there would be an ocean of Apple customers vastly outnumbering Xoom customers.
post #19 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I would imagine that the international inventory is already in transit. Apple has sold out the US allotment but has most likely allocated substantial quantities for the the international rollout.

Quick, quick ... bring em back we need them
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post #20 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Having to wait is one thing, having people line up for hours to be disappointed is another. No doubt, the iPad is a hit and it will sell millions. I just worry about the Apple brand. My belief (and I know many don't agree) is that in small doses these shortages drive excitement, but if they are too frequent I worry about engendering resentment. People (at least in America) want to root for the underdog but all too often they like to see the big guy brought low.

Apple isn't the little guy anymore!

No other giant in the PC industry has ever dealt with this size of distribution as a single entity. Apple isn't holding back on supplies. Third parties should have the focus be put on them and question the real capacity of those manufacturers.
post #21 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


Apple isn't the little guy anymore!

That is true, Apple is the big guy on the block now.

To be honest, I wouldn't even care if they became slightly smaller. I liked them when they were small and I like them now when they're big. They deserve to be big. Those people who are true Apple users will like Apple no matter how big or small they are. If somebody doesn't understand the true value and benefit of Apple's computers and devices, then it wouldn't bother me if those people jumped ship. Sometimes I think that Apple is too popular and I don't like all of these new Apple users that I see sometimes using Apple products. There will always be enough people around who will stick with Apple regardless.
post #22 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Having to wait is one thing, having people line up for hours to be disappointed is another. No doubt, the iPad is a hit and it will sell millions. I just worry about the Apple brand. My belief (and I know many don't agree) is that in small doses these shortages drive excitement, but if they are too frequent I worry about engendering resentment. People (at least in America) want to root for the underdog but all too often they like to see the big guy brought low.

Apple isn't the little guy anymore!

So you are suggesting on the one hand Apple wants to be able to post massive sales and on the other hand doesn't want to post massive sales to help massive sales? I wonder how they would actually plan that? Is it done by telling the retailers to secretly say they have run out half way through selling or do they limit the retailers to half of what they guess they are going to sell ... ? I am assuming there is some magic involved in all this

In all seriousness my guess is sales are simply exceeding even the wildest expectations and manufacturing is already flat out making them as fast as they can. All good news to me, I'll take waiting for these reasons any day as a share holder
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post #23 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

That is true, Apple is the big guy on the block now.

To be honest, I wouldn't even care if they became slightly smaller. I liked them when they were small and I like them now when they're big. They deserve to be big. Those people who are true Apple users will like Apple no matter how big or small they are. If somebody doesn't understand the true value and benefit of Apple's computers and devices, then it wouldn't bother me if those people jumped ship. Sometimes I think that Apple is too popular and I don't like all of these new Apple users that I see sometimes using Apple products. There will always be enough people around who will stick with Apple regardless.

Oh come on, we need to welcome all these new users to the fold. Meanwhile it's time you moved up to a ///
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post #24 of 121
It would be polite of Apple to release it internationally according to the schedule they announced.

I've already arranged for the day off work on the 25th and want to claim a refund on the sales tax, which I can only do if it launches before a trip that has already been booked and paid for.

An international launch helps Americans get their products quicker too because it removes the market for professional scalpers.
post #25 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

New shipments of the iPad 2 to some Apple stores around the country on Tuesday immediately sold out, raising questions for one analyst about how much inventory Apple will have available for next week's international launch.

Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities checked with stores in New York City and San Francisco on Tuesday, and found that a few stores received additional shipments of the iPad 2. All of those that had a delivery sold out this morning, or will sell out over the next couple of hours, he said.

Not all Apple stores received iPad 2 shipments this morning, and those that did receive new units to sell saw much smaller quantities than last Friday's launch.

A number of stores opened an hour early on Tuesday in anticipation of having a new supply of iPads. However, some customers around the country lined up at stores that did in fact open an hour early, but without any of the iPad 2 in stock.

"The lines to buy the iPad 2 in New York City and San Francisco were again quite a spectacle this morning, a trend we believe will occur throughout the week," White wrote in a note to investors. "In New York City, three of the four stores already sold out of the iPad 2 in the first couple of hours this morning, and tickets were handed out at the flagship store to help people avoid waiting in line unnecessarily.

"Additionally, the flagship San Francisco store opened an hour early and was also handing out tickets to a line of well over 400 people. Those at the end of this line were told the likelihood of getting an iPad 2 this morning were slim."

White said that just one of three stores in San Francisco received new shipments Tuesday morning.



Given the limited availability and strong demand for the iPad 2 in the U.S. alone, White has questioned whether Apple will have enough supply for an international launch scheduled for March 25. The iPad 2 is set to launch in more than two dozen countries next Friday, though the Japanese launch has been delayed due to the recent earthquake disaster.

Last year, Apple was forced to delay the international launch of the first-generation iPad by a month. Demand for the first-generation device was greater than Apple had anticipated, and the company could not fulfill U.S.-only orders.

The iPad 2 is still scheduled to go on sale March 25 in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K. Apple has said that availability for many more countries around the world will occur in the coming months. Further international availability and pricing will be announced at a later date.

Am I the only one who believes this product shortage reflects badly on Tim Cook, the Apple COO?
How many consecutive Apple product launches have involved shortages? That's revenue not collected. Why do they consistently under-produce?
post #26 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mode View Post

Artificial supply shortage to drive demand - lineups and mass impulse buying expedited.
How do you drive a market to covet your product - tell them it's in limited supply.
This tactic is routine in a lot of business. People want what they can't have.

Nowhere is this practiced more then in the tech industry.
Also a great way to determine and monitor market demand.

Could this be the case here? The timing of the international release is interesting. It's different from their iPhone strategy, but that may be because of carriers.

You are still not convinced that Apple sells everything it makes. You still don't get it. Which of the other tablets are you fronting for? Have them adopt your strategy and see if it works.
post #27 of 121
Long gone are the days when Apple had warehouses full of inventory it couldn't sell.
post #28 of 121
I'm not an expert on international logistics or anything but surely the process is a little too advanced to call off now. \

How long do shipments take to clear customs/preparing to ship - 24/48 hours either side (). I'd take a guess and say that there arnt warehouses full of lovely shiny iPAD2 laying around Canada/Europe/Austrialia but i would imagine the process is fairly well "advanced" - IE even if they are not at the end destination they could be packaged up ready to go, theres things like the packaging to take into account for example - the power outlet units are different so its not just case of saying "OK, this is not going to the UK anymore, its going to the US" - they'd have to absorb the cost of waste (not that great but still a cost) in packaging and repackaging the units for a different market.

Moving onto my gusses (), and assuming that Apple were planning on selling just at least as many units this year as they did last year (15,000,000 wansnt it?), then they are making them at a rate of about 41,000 per day. If the reports of around the 7th December were true (about apple telling FoxConn that they were planning on launching in about 100 days - that kind of fits), and Foxconn were since then to make about 20,000 a day then there be a bit of a stock supply. Since friday about 200,000 could well have been assemlied. All of that makes assumptions rather than being based on fact, but still give an indication.

I generally think that its a logistical problem of getting to where they need to be rather than there not being enouth
post #29 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Quick, quick ... bring em back we need them

They would be useless to us since the software would have speciality behaviours and the hardware built with aluminium cases, colour screens and a home button in the centre.

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post #30 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDDave View Post

Why do they consistently under-produce?

It's better to slightly under deliver during launch, than to over produce during the rest of the product's life cycle.

Should Apple acquire 3 more factories to pump out a product so that the initial demand will be met, but after the rush is over and sales stabilize, those factories will have been wasted?

I'm not a CEO or a product manager, that's just my theory.
post #31 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

So you are suggesting on the one hand Apple wants to be able to post massive sales and on the other hand doesn't want to post massive sales to help massive sales? I wonder how they would actually plan that? Is it done by telling the retailers to secretly say they have run out half way through selling or do they limit the retailers to half of what they guess they are going to sell ... ? I am assuming there is some magic involved in all this

In all seriousness my guess is sales are simply exceeding even the wildest expectations and manufacturing is already flat out making them as fast as they can. All good news to me, I'll take waiting for these reasons any day as a share holder

I'm not one of those saying Apple is restricting supply intentionally. I am sure they want to sell tons and, of course they will. Also, I have sympathy for the (ridiculously enviable) problem of massive initial demand for so many of their products these days. There really is no company that I can think of who has ever had to navigate this kind of situation so often!

Now, I suspect that there must have been some truth to the stories that there were production issues in the ramp-up. It seems that many here think that things are going like Apple planned except that they were surprised by the insane demand. This I just don't buy. Sure, with the original iPad gauging demand before release was a crapshoot--but now?

I think it's funny that people get defensive (not necessarily the poster quoted above) over any suggestion that this hasn't gone as well as possible...
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post #32 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Meanwhile it's time you moved up to a ///

Are you thinking about the Apple /// ? If so, then I've never actually used one of those.

I didn't own an Apple ][ either, as I was way too young at the time and it would have been a tad expensive on my $5 a week allowance. I did have one in school though, and I used it as often as I could.
post #33 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I would imagine that the international inventory is already in transit. Apple has sold out the US allotment but has most likely allocated substantial quantities for the the international rollout.

This is what I assumed to be the case when the US shipping dates for the online orders slipped within hours.

Apple Australia are advertising that they will have them available for "preorder" online which I guess will give a few days notice next week if that's the case.
post #34 of 121
They better be here on the 25th - I'm planning on camping out at the Manchester Trafford Centre store from Monday just so that I can pay the UK premium price for this tech!

OK, may be I'll join the restrained masses and hit the 'buy' button for an on-line purchase. I think it would be a great shame if the non-US market was made to suffer a much longer delay.

MS on the other hand got it right - they didn't move the Zune outside the home market. I guess they realised that it would sell alongside established alternate brands.

Only 10 more sleeps to go!
post #35 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

New shipments of the iPad 2 to some Apple stores around the country on Tuesday immediately sold out, raising questions for one analyst about how much inventory Apple will have available for next week's international launch...

I'm not saying that Apple might indeed be screwing things up on the supply front, but this is a completely unwarranted conclusion based on the evidence available. Either this guy is a complete idiot, or he's just purposely winding everyone up. I'm guessing the later.

It's pretty standard practice for instance to have a pre-made supply based on what you *think* will be the initial demand and then ramp up production (or ramp down in some cases) to match the curve. All that we know so far is that Apple (along with all the analysts and pretty much everyone else), misjudged the initial demand.

Since literally only a few days later, there is simply no way to know if Apple is having problems at all. They are obviously going to feed back the demand they are seeing into their system and ramp up production. It's only if they fail to do so, (and we won't know for a week or two at least), that we should get worried at all.

On top of that, if apple doesn't have separate supplies for the International launches (again, standard practice), I would be shocked. If they have real problems, they can "borrow" from places that don't need so much supply and give to those that do, but in the case of the iPad, there won't actually be anywhere that "doesn't want it." If they were to seriously take away supplies from the International launch just to provide the US market they would be cutting their own throats in the markets they most want to grow.

None of his ideas make any sense at all unless you assume the guy is just lying to wind everyone up for other (stock related) purposes.
post #36 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Are you thinking about the Apple /// ? If so, then I've never actually used one of those.

I didn't own an Apple ][ either, as I was way too young at the time and it would have been a tad expensive on my $5 a week allowance. I did have one in school though, and I used it as often as I could.

Yes I mean an Apple /// ... but only joshing. Great handle by the way. At least you got to touch an Apple ][ in the day so you're allowed.
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post #37 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mode View Post

mass impulse buying expedited.

the EXACT opposite of this. DUCY?
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post #38 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

They would be useless to us since the software would have speciality behaviours and the hardware built with aluminium cases, colour screens and a home button in the centre.

I had to read this several times to get the joke (I knew there had to be one). Hailing from England originally, I simply didn't see the spelling! I am truly dual lingual now, I can't spell in either US or Brit English equally!
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post #39 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by c4rlob View Post

At least Motorola got one thing right in their commercial - there would be an ocean of Apple customers vastly outnumbering Xoom customers.

Apple needs to have a commercial pitting benchmarks of the iPad2 against the Xoom,

It could go, "Benchmarking the iPad2 against the Motorola Xoom? Yup, there's an app for that." Rotating iPad with nice graph showing the iPad 2 more than double the graphics performance of the Xoom.

I'm really so sick of the futuristic Verizon commercials showing your smart phone or tablet turning you into something out of Minority Report. Talk about hyping your product, they are the worst. Reminds me of the old DSL commercials showing people surfing at what would be a 128K connection & it looks like they're on 4Gig fiber or something. Whatever happened to nailing companies for false advertising?
post #40 of 121
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Great handle by the way. At least you got to touch an Apple ][ in the day so you're allowed.

I was surprised that it wasn't taken when I first signed up, so I'm happy with it.

I may not have owned the Apple ][ back then, but I did own a box of 5 1/4" floppy disks which I used on that machine. I think that they were Verbatim.

If my memory doesn't fail me, since we're talking about almost 30 years ago - I still remember one peek command that I always used to use on it. Peek -16384

I think that made a short buzzing sound, again, if my memory is still intact.
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