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$500 target slapped on Apple as iPad seen dominating $120B tablet market by 2015

post #1 of 48
Thread Starter 
Posing the question of whether Apple is the "most valuable company in the world," Credit Suisse on Thursday initiated coverage of the iPad maker with a $500 price target, saying it believes Apple is well positioned to command a majority share of a booming tablet market expect to grow to $120 billion over the next four years.

In his inaugural note to clients, analyst Kulbinder Garcha concluded that Apple should be able to deliver extensive revenue and earnings growth of 50% and 46%, respectively, over the next two years, given that all indicators suggest the company will easily sustain its competitive advantage through its integrated ecosystem of software, hardware and services.

"[T]hree years after the launch of its first iPhone, we believe few handset vendors come close to the quality of Apples hardware, software, and services," he wrote. "We also expect the companys services offering to evolve along with its device portfolio."

To that end, the analyst noted that the success of the iPad only reinforces the notion of increased user loyalty, which could translate to more stable market share in Apple's handset business. As it stands, Garcha's proprietary analysis for tablets indicates that the segment could rise to $120 billion market by 2015, and he expects Apple will maintain a share as high as 50% by that time, given its aggressive pricing, time to market advantage and a software edge.

"This means that iPad should become a $34 billion business by [fiscal 2012]," he wrote. "Further, our proprietary bill of materials (BOM) analysis implies that gross margins for this business will expand to 35% by [the end of fiscal 2011] from around the 27% levels seen in fiscal 2010."



Looking ahead, Garcha identified four major paths that Apple could take which would result in incremental sales and per share earnings of $65 billion and $10.10, respectively, in 2015 when compared to 2010. The first of which is a low-end iPhone, which the analyst calls both "necessary and significant."

"We demonstrate that having successfully saturated the above $500 smartphone market with an 81% share and having grown this segment of the market by a factor of 2.8 since 2008, once distribution is built out, Apples smartphone share is likely to plateau around volume of 120 million and global share of 12%," he wrote. Based on his proprietary market by price point and BOM analyses, Garcha believes the company could generate $26 billion in incremental sales and $6 billion in operating profit by 2015 versus 2010 -- adding $4.47 in incremental per share earnings along the way -- through the introduction of a more affordable handset.

More specifically, he said that it is both "necessary and advisable that a low-end iPhone is launched" over the next 12-18 months, adding that any fears of cannibalization of the company's high end devices should be more than offset by the volumes in which the low-end device is likely to sell.



Another untapped growth driver singled out by the analyst would be a expansion of distribution through its retail segment in emerging markets. He notes that currently the company's maintains 236 brick and mortar shops, with only 4 of them existing in emerging markets: China.

"[B]y more aggressively building out an emerging market strategy and based upon current spend per capita on Apple products and income distribution, even after allowing for affordability issues, this could drive an incremental revenue opportunity of $19 billion from our 2010 levels along with $4.3 billion in operating profits and $3.16 in EPS," he wrote.

Meanwhile, penetration within the enterprise exists as a third major path to growth, according to Garcha. He notes that the Apple's share in the corporate world is significantly smaller than its consumer share in every product category where the company is a major player.

"We argue that the iPads rapid adoption could prove to be a Trojan horse from which Apple could see more rapid corporate adoption across its product line," the analyst wrote. "Furthermore, our proprietary Credit Suisse IT Survey demonstrates that not only do CIOs rate the iPhone as the strongest of all platforms across metrics such as roadmap, distribution, and sales, but also that it is set for rapid adoption over the next 12 months."

Finally, Garcha said that while Apple has stated it is not interested in the TV market, he sees the company's services platform, operating system, and hardware strengths as potential drivers that could ultimately lead it to pursue the lucrative broadcasting market.

"We have refrained from estimating the revenue or earnings upside from this strategy, but given the run rate (now in other businesses) is in the billion -- we think this could prove to be a large growth driver in the future," he wrote.
post #2 of 48
Sweet! I hope he is right. Doesn't make me feel too bad about waiting until the stock was $340 to buy in.
post #3 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post

Sweet! I hope he is right. Doesn't make me feel too bad about waiting until the stock was $340 to buy in.

I thought I was late buying at $210.......go AAPL!
post #4 of 48
He does not even address Apple's biggest (sleeper) growth opportunity: Macs, with currently just a 4% global share.

Wait until the MBA profile is rolled out across the entire line, and until markets such as China and India start to get wealthier. It's going to be a blockbuster. (Look at the automobile market -- incl. the high-end -- for an analogy).
post #5 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

He does not even address Apple's biggest (sleeper) growth opportunity: Macs, with currently just a 4% global share.

Wait until the MBA profile is rolled out across the entire line, and until markets such as China and India start to get wealthier. It's going to be a blockbuster. (Look at the automobile market -- incl. the high-end -- for an analogy).

That's an excellent point. It could very well be that the good experiences people are having with the iPhone and iPad lead them towards trying out a Mac. That's the case for me personally. Haven't given into the temptation yet, but it's growing. Love my iPad and iPhone so far.
post #6 of 48
The Apple Store is also a way to sell and provide good customer service. Where do I go when something goes wrong with my Xoom or I need help with native Android apps?
post #7 of 48
WOW...I suddenly wish I had asked my parents for $600 in AAPL stock rather than a mac mini when I graduated HS in 04...some quick back of envelope calculation shows that a $600 investment in 04, before the split, would be about $42000 if AAPL hits that mark...damn...
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #8 of 48
This is the only stock I bought in 2000 that is worth anything now, all the rest of the companies disappeared. Apple also is the only one I bought where is was not a recommendation from a friend or adviser. I got lucky and bought a crap load of AAPL at $10 a share.
post #9 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

WOW...I suddenly wish I had asked my parents for $600 in AAPL stock rather than a mac mini when I graduated HS in 04...some quick back of envelope calculation shows that a $600 investment in 04, before the split, would be about $42000 if AAPL hits that mark...damn...

I think there was a website where you culd plug in an Apple computer model and when you bought it and it would tell you what your stock holding would be if you had bought and held APPL instead. The $2k I dropped on a PowerBook in 1993... Well, I try not to think about it!
Progress is a comfortable disease
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Progress is a comfortable disease
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post #10 of 48
Sounds nice. Now how about a dividend payment, or is Apple trying to be the first company to loose $40 billion when the bank its sitting in goes bankrupt.
post #11 of 48
Geez, a downgrade yesterday from a low-rent firm, followed by several upgrades today. The big guys just love to raid your stops, and get a terrific buying opportunity just ahead of earnings next month.

I much prefer this article, which speaks to the old buy and hold mantra (Apple is my only buy and hold stock, for sure).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2581...and-hold-stock
post #12 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post

That's an excellent point. It could very well be that the good experiences people are having with the iPhone and iPad lead them towards trying out a Mac. That's the case for me personally. Haven't given into the temptation yet, but it's growing. Love my iPad and iPhone so far.

For most people the excuse is cost, to that I say what other laptop can you resell later & get at least %40 of original purchase price after 3 years? Sell the old Mac to put towards new Mac, suddenly they aren't more expensive than PCs.

Also, you can still run Windows natively on your Mac, though I don't know anyone yet who has switched who has decided to use Windows. Come on, buy a Mac, you know you want to.
post #13 of 48
"In his inaugural note to clients..."

Hmm..., it sounds like this guy is trying to make a name for himself. He's taken a solid bet of a company, and then slapped the highest price target of the lot on it to get headlines and attention. Whether or not AAPL gets to $500 (nobody knows exactly what the future holds), the guy has already achieved his objective of getting noticed.

Take what these analysts say with a pinch of salt. He might be right, he might be wrong. For him it's about making a splash and getting paid.
post #14 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

"In his inaugural note to clients..."

Hmm..., it sounds like this guy is trying to make a name for himself. He's taken a solid bet of a company, and then slapped the highest price target of the lot on it to get headlines and attention. Whether or not AAPL gets to $500 (nobody knows exactly what the future holds), the guy has already achieved his objective of getting noticed.

Take what these analysts say with a pinch of salt. He might be right, he might be wrong. For him it's about making a splash and getting paid.

It's actually not the highest target. I checked. Some firm has $550.
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post #15 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post

That's an excellent point. It could very well be that the good experiences people are having with the iPhone and iPad lead them towards trying out a Mac. That's the case for me personally. Haven't given into the temptation yet, but it's growing. Love my iPad and iPhone so far.

I don't buy the case (no pun intended) for a low priced iPhone. First of all, the analyst is ignoring the fact that the iPhone is subsidized (at least in the U.S.) so that most people are paying as little as $200 for it. And previous generation models tend to go for $100 at least some of the time. So I'm not sure Apple needs another lower priced model. And what would they take out and have it still be an iPhone?

I think the analysts are all missing an area where substantial future Apple growth is going to come from: Apple is completing the North Carolina server farm with rumors that they're going to start expanding it to double the size. In addition, Apple is going to start building a new campus on the old HP (I think) property which is much larger than their current campus. What is all that space for? I think Apple is planning either some major new product lines, new services or some category we haven't even thought of yet. Something really BIG. Maybe this is 3-5 years down the road, but I truly think the evidence points to a major expansion of Apple, as big as it currently is.

Apple survived the recession (which we could yet fall back into) better than any other company in the world, aside perhaps from the oil companies. Imagine how well they're going to do as the world economy improves, even if there are some parts shortages (like memory) due to the tragedy in Japan. Up until a few years ago, the most successful consumer electronics launch of all time was DVD players. It took DVD players (from multiple companies) 21 months to sell 1 million units. Apple sold 1 million iPad2s last weekend. And yet some idiot downgraded the stock yesterday? I don't care - he did me a favor - I bought some more and I'm already ahead.
post #16 of 48
Bla bla bla.

J.
post #17 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

Sounds nice. Now how about a dividend payment, or is Apple trying to be the first company to loose $40 billion when the bank its sitting in goes bankrupt.

While I like the idea of a dividend, your fear (if you're serious) of it being at risk in a bank failure is moot - Apple does not have it in a form that is affected by the FDIC insurance limit.
post #18 of 48
I see your $500 and raise it another $500. Yay, $1000 baby!

Seriously, that's a bit much. Android tablets will come around eventually and Microsoft will have Windows 8 ready in 2013-ish that will then compete better than any offering they have now (they might just as well use Windows Phone 7 OS).

What's the next move that Apple will make to justify the $500 - iOS kitchen and wash appliances or maybe an integrated AppleTV in an actual television set? Two to three years in the lead with the iPad does not justify that. Can someone say "bubble"?
post #19 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

Sounds nice. Now how about a dividend payment, or is Apple trying to be the first company to loose $40 billion when the bank its sitting in goes bankrupt.

You clearly have no clue what you're talking about.
post #20 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasper View Post

It's actually not the highest target. I checked. Some firm has $550.

Yeah, $500 is not an outlandish target, especially considering Apple's consistent revenue growth. About the lowest target I've seen is $450, and that was a few months ago. One question I have is whether or not the stock will split again. Not that I have a preference either way, but it has split a couple of times before.
post #21 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

The Apple Store is also a way to sell and provide good customer service. Where do I go when something goes wrong with my Xoom or I need help with native Android apps?

You would go to the Apple store to buy something better.
post #22 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

Sounds nice. Now how about a dividend payment, or is Apple trying to be the first company to loose $40 billion when the bank its sitting in goes bankrupt.

they are saving for a big purchase in the infrastructure end of the market to hedge against the anti competitive bandwidth caps on ATT and COMCAST that make it impractical to use products like Apple TV rather than Cable TV. methinks sprint/clearwire or something of that nature...or perhaps maybe a small cable company to show what is possible with a coax last mile on a fiber network...I hope...

also, this money isnt in a bank somewhere, companies dont put that kind of money in your local banks Christmas club account if ya know what I mean, it is most likely in many differant cash equivalents, and easily liquifiable investments like bonds or mutual funds, I would bet that Apple has some keen money managers working on that nestegg...
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #23 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

they are saving for a big purchase in the infrastructure end of the market to hedge against the anti competitive bandwidth caps on ATT and COMCAST that make it impractical to use products like Apple TV rather than Cable TV. methinks sprint/clearwire or something of that nature...or perhaps maybe a small cable company to show what is possible with a coax last mile on a fiber network...

i agree they are looking at a big infrastructure purchase, but i doubt it would be a small cable company. Possibly a Sprint. I was actually thinking more like Vizio, to pave the way for the inevitable Apple Television. But that would be impossible to keep secret, so I think they'll just build their own (heck, they're almost there already with 27.5" iMacs).
post #24 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

also, this money isnt in a bank somewhere, companies dont put that kind of money in your local banks Christmas club account if ya know what I mean, it is most likely in many differant cash equivalents, and easily liquifiable investments like bonds or mutual funds, I would bet that Apple has some keen money managers working on that nestegg...

they tell you exactly where the money is each quarter in their SEC filings.
post #25 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheeles View Post

"In his inaugural note to clients..."

Hmm..., it sounds like this guy is trying to make a name for himself. He's taken a solid bet of a company, and then slapped the highest price target of the lot on it to get headlines and attention. Whether or not AAPL gets to $500 (nobody knows exactly what the future holds), the guy has already achieved his objective of getting noticed.

Take what these analysts say with a pinch of salt. He might be right, he might be wrong. For him it's about making a splash and getting paid.

It's his inaugural report because of several factors - the technology person at Credit Suisse left some months ago, so the company quit covering tech until they found a replacement. The company had to re-analyze the entire tech sector. That's why it says they're "initiating" coverage. They're not a fly-by-night financial firm, like the one that issued the warning yesterday. He may be right or wrong, but as the tech anlyst at Credit Suisse, he's not a shill.
post #26 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagman View Post

Geez, a downgrade yesterday from a low-rent firm, followed by several upgrades today. The big guys just love to raid your stops, and get a terrific buying opportunity just ahead of earnings next month.

I much prefer this article, which speaks to the old buy and hold mantra (Apple is my only buy and hold stock, for sure).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2581...and-hold-stock

That's all they've ever done and yet they legally get coddled instead of having the government squash them for artificially juicing the system.
post #27 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

Bla bla bla.

J.

bla bla bla, is this the translation of jnjnjn? (Klingonian or simplified trollish?)
post #28 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by elroth View Post

It's his inaugural report because of several factors - the technology person at Credit Suisse left some months ago, so the company quit covering tech until they found a replacement. The company had to re-analyze the entire tech sector. That's why it says they're "initiating" coverage. They're not a fly-by-night financial firm, like the one that issued the warning yesterday. He may be right or wrong, but as the tech anlyst at Credit Suisse, he's not a shill.

I think this makes sense. And IMO one of the more interressting market analysis I have read recently.
post #29 of 48
AAPL, the Berkshire-Hathaway of the computer world.

Unless they decide to a split to help with the psychology of such a share value and allow modest investors to join in on the fun. They've done it three times and there is ample evidence indicating it will happen this year. Splits also tone down the wild up and down swings that virtually everyone measures in terms of dollars instead of percentage.
post #30 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post

Unless they decide to a split to help with the psychology of such a share value and allow modest investors to join in on the fun. They've done it three times and there is ample evidence indicating it will happen this year .

What evidence, other than the stock price itself, are you referring to?
post #31 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post

AAPL, the Berkshire-Hathaway of the computer world.

Unless they decide to a split to help with the psychology of such a share value and allow modest investors to join in on the fun. They've done it three times and there is ample evidence indicating it will happen this year. Splits also tone down the wild up and down swings that virtually everyone measures in terms of dollars instead of percentage.

Only dummies measure stock moves in dollars.

What is all this "ample evidence" you reference?
post #32 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

The Apple Store is also a way to sell and provide good customer service. Where do I go when something goes wrong with my Xoom or I need help with native Android apps?

You on your own homey!!! Moto ain't got no damn customer service.
But going to the Apple store is like visiting the Beatles during a meet and greet while they jam. Now that is customer service!!!!!!!!
post #33 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

i agree they are looking at a big infrastructure purchase, but i doubt it would be a small cable company. Possibly a Sprint. I was actually thinking more like Vizio, to pave the way for the inevitable Apple Television. But that would be impossible to keep secret, so I think they'll just build their own (heck, they're almost there already with 27.5" iMacs).

they dont need visio, they just need to hire a few engineers to integrate an appletv and hd ota tuner in the cinema display body.

The real problem is comcast and ATT preferring their own content via broadband caps that apply to apple, netflix, hulu and so on, but not to comcast on demand and such. A perfect example is MLB.TV The same exact package sells on cable for more than online (they call it extra innings ppv on tv), the cable package doesn't give you online access but doesn't count against your cap; the same exact content streamed from MLB.com counts against you.

Bits is bits, they are exempting theirs, and all of them do it, the government is in bed with these fuckers, so the only way out is for Apple or google to provide a new option.
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You can't quantify how much I don't care -- Bob Kevoian of the Bob and Tom Show.
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post #34 of 48
Is the target $500 by 2015?
post #35 of 48
The most interesting part of this is that the iPad 2 is apparently having supply issues while the tab, Xoom etc are out on shelves and folks are waiting. Whining at the same time but waiting for the iPad. Makes me think someone spiked the kool aid with tigers blood.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #36 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post

AAPL, the Berkshire-Hathaway of the computer world.

Unless they decide to a split to help with the psychology of such a share value and allow modest investors to join in on the fun. They've done it three times and there is ample evidence indicating it will happen this year. Splits also tone down the wild up and down swings that virtually everyone measures in terms of dollars instead of percentage.

I don't understand this. AAPL has been mostly an institutional holding for the past ten years. It's not a retail stock.

Frankly, I'm not particularly interested in the volatility of having a large number of retail investors influencing this company's market capitalization. AAPL doesn't need this; they are already an S&P 500 component.

Yes, I am a retail investor. However, I see no added value in having more of my type. AAPL, GOOG, etc. probably see some sort of value in keeping share price high, just to weed out chumps.
post #37 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyinscotland View Post

Is the target $500 by 2015?

That's always been the analysts' escape hatch - announce a target but avoid tying it to a specific timeframe. The direct answer to your question is yes - or sometime sooner within a four-year horizon where he estimates growth and results for several major product categories and sectors. Other more venturesome individuals are forecasting $500 in the next year or two.

As such, Garcha is not out on a limb at all, since $500 is perhaps 10 percent more than the consensus of current target prices among analysts following Apple. And $500 is simply a nice "milestone number," sexier than $488 or $493 or $505, so it'll pick up some readership.

Not to diminish Garcha's number crunching, which is derived from a decent amount of financial analysis. But smart analysts spray a final spritz of perfume on their estimates, and $500 has a nice scent at this time.

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I admit to being a Fanatical Moderate. I Disdain the Inane. Vyizderzominymororzizazizdenderizorziz?

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post #38 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDreamworx View Post

AAPL, the Berkshire-Hathaway of the computer world.

Unless they decide to a split to help with the psychology of such a share value and allow modest investors to join in on the fun. They've done it three times and there is ample evidence indicating it will happen this year. Splits also tone down the wild up and down swings that virtually everyone measures in terms of dollars instead of percentage.

Never happen. Steve Jobs, himself, said that the reason why no more splits would take place is for the same reason why Berkshire and Google don't split: It gives a truer indication of the value of the company.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrpoge View Post

What evidence, other than the stock price itself, are you referring to?

None, because he has none.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Only dummies measure stock moves in dollars.
What is all this "ample evidence" you reference?

Here here. Always measure in percentage gains. If more people did this, the share price wouldn't be an issue and they'd invest at any price.

Again, he has no evidence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonnyinscotland View Post

Is the target $500 by 2015?

Price targets are 12 months out, unless otherwise stated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesJpn View Post

This is the only stock I bought in 2000 that is worth anything now, all the rest of the companies disappeared. Apple also is the only one I bought where is was not a recommendation from a friend or adviser. I got lucky and bought a crap load of AAPL at $10 a share.

I picked up 4000 at a split adjusted price of $4.25 in '98.

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #39 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

I picked up 4000 at a split adjusted price of $4.25 in '98.

You have over 1.2 million dollars worth of APPL in your folio? And you advertise this in a forum?
post #40 of 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post

Sounds nice. Now how about a dividend payment, or is Apple trying to be the first company to loose $40 billion when the bank its sitting in goes bankrupt.

It's "LOSE" not "LOOSE"
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