or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Firm sees apps driving 50% sales growth for Apple through 2012
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Firm sees apps driving 50% sales growth for Apple through 2012

post #1 of 22
Thread Starter 
The founder of a prominent market research firm said Wednesday that he expects Apple to continue to post more than 50 percent sales growth over the next two years as burgeoning demand for mobile applications drives sales of Apple's mobile devices.

George Colony, founder and CEO of Forrester Research, made the predictions in an interview with Bloomberg.

Projecting Apple's current growth rates for the next few years, Colony sees the Cupertino, Calif., company's revenue surpassing that of other well-established tech giants. "Theyll be bigger than IBM next year, and theyll be bigger than HP the year after that, Colony said. Assuming that current growth rates continue, "theyre going to be a $200 billion revenue company, he said.

When measured in terms of market capitalization, Apple became the world's largest technology company last year when it passed rival Microsoft. Shares of Apple have continued to climb since then, with the company's market cap topping $300 billion at the start of 2011.

Though Apple stock fell $2.01 to $339.19 on Wednesday, the company is up 5.2 percent since the beginning of the year.

Analyst consensus estimates also see Apple growing sales by over 50 percent to more than $100 billion in fiscal 2011, which ends in September, but some analysts see the company's growth slowing to around 18 percent in 2012.

Colony sees Apple's growth being driven by what he calls an "app Internet," where consumers and businesses rely on app for content and services, rather than the Web.

However, Colony's bullish outlook is tempered by concerns over Apple CEO Steve Jobs' health. Though he surmised that the company has a product pipeline set up for the next three to four years, an unexpected departure from the company by Jobs would affect Apple's product line and stock price.

Remember, every two years they have to fill that store with new stuff, Colony said, referring to Apple Retail Stores. Without Steve Jobs as the CEO, I think it will be much harder for them to do that. That would be a massive, massive hit to the valuation.

Jobs is currently on medical leave, though he remains involved in major strategic decisions.

During the interviw, Colony warned that Apple rival Google, which he claims relies too heavily on the Web, could struggle as consumers gravitate toward apps. If youre too Web-centric right now, youre in trouble, he said. Googles business model is completely based on you going to the Web and clicking on a link and seeing an ad impression. In the app Internet world, all of that goes away.

The executive also cautioned that Google may face troubled times when co-founder Larry Page takes over for Eric Schmidt as CEO next month. When it comes to Larry Page I have two words for you, Colony said. Jerry Yang."

Yang, who co-founded Yahoo, became CEO of his company in 2007, but was unable to turn the company around. He eventually stepped down in 2009 after critics blamed him for mishandling negotiations of a takeover by Microsoft.
post #2 of 22
From near bankruptcy to biggest company in the world in 15 years. Truly amazing.
post #3 of 22
How could some market research firm have any clue about where things are headed? Since their beginnings Apple and Jobs have always been on the frontier heading toward the next mountain range with the settlers and city slickers following far behind. These researchers and analysts should try to sit down with Jobs and just ask him where he and Apple are headed next. Then they would have the real answer to their research.
post #4 of 22
Marketing people have always been full of it.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #5 of 22
ROFLMAO!!!

Quote:
These researchers and analysts should try to sit down with Jobs and just ask him where he and Apple are headed next. Then they would have the real answer to their research.

I assume what they would get out of such an interview is that Apple is headed nowhere, because its not like Apple would tell them about upcoming products. "Oh because you asked nice, let me tell you about the iPhone 5 and our corporate strategy for the next five years".

While I agree that most market researchers have very little insight into the future, nominally that is what they are supposed to work on. IMO most research firms of that nature are trying to manipulate the future more than predict it. I guess that is a form of prediction?
post #6 of 22
Analysts: Is he like the one who, in 1984, discouraged me from being excited about the Mac and Apple's long-term prospects, and counseled me against buying Apple stock. This guy may turn out be correct, but he's actually no more credible to me than if he were basing his prognostications on examinations of chicken entrails. Spare me his wisdom and that of his ilk, puleese!
post #7 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

From near bankruptcy to biggest company in the world in 15 years. Truly amazing.

It is amazing, however Apple is not the biggest company in the world.

That position goes to Exxon-Mobil.
post #8 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

These researchers and analysts should try to sit down with Jobs and just ask him where he and Apple are headed next. Then they would have the real answer to their research.

This comment demonstrates your utter lack of knowledge about how Apple runs its business and specifically its policy about talking about unannounced products.

Thanks for playing. We have some nice parting gifts for you.
post #9 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

. . . but some analysts see the company's growth slowing to around 18 percent in 2012.

Because they assume that the iPad is the last new product Apple will ever produce?
post #10 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The founder of a prominent market research firm said Wednesday that he expects Apple to continue to post more than 50 percent sales growth over the next two years .....

What does he mean? 50% per year for the next two years, or ~22.5% per year during the next two years, compounded? If the latter, then it's an odd way to phrase the text and the headline.

Incidentally 'consensus' analyst forecasts (not saying they are correct -- I think it's way too aggressive) are for ~$118B in revenue by Sept '12, or approximately 80% growth over two years from Sept '10, i.e., a compouned annual growth rate of 35% per year. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AAPL+Analyst+Estimates
post #11 of 22
If you read the original linked article, it is more clear that Forrester is predicting a 50% revenue increase annually over the next two years for Apple, toppling IBM's sales in a year, and then HP's sales in two years.
post #12 of 22
It's a little odd to talk about revenue in a vacuum. Revenue is not earnings, and earnings are what matters. We're not seeing the entire research report, only a few of the marquee numbers that someone thought were the important take-aways. Presumably the report did include a forecast on earnings and also made the period more clear.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #13 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

. . . Since their beginnings Apple and Jobs have always been on the frontier heading toward the next mountain range with the settlers and city slickers following far behind. . .

Exactly, Ikrupp. Apple is never sitting, always planning and most often fruitful. What wonders the world will see as Steve and his team invent the future. They ain't just laying back and enjoying the Mountains. Their building and designing new heights to scale.

I like your Imagery.

Namaste,
mhikl

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply

When I find time to rewrite the laws of Physics, there'll Finally be some changes made round here!

I am not crazy! Three out of five court appointed psychiatrists said so.

Reply
post #14 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

From near bankruptcy to biggest company in the world in 15 years. Truly amazing.

The problem is it was Steve who did it and arguably continues to do it, so the question is, with out him can Apple continue as it does today....

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply
post #15 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bravo Six View Post

Analysts: Is he like the one who, in 1984, discouraged me from being excited about the Mac and Apple's long-term prospects, and counseled me against buying Apple stock. This guy may turn out be correct, but he's actually no more credible to me than if he were basing his prognostications on examinations of chicken entrails. Spare me his wisdom and that of his ilk, puleese!

Amen, no one knows what the future holds... Just ask Japan

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply
post #16 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

It is amazing, however Apple is not the biggest company in the world.

That position goes to Exxon-Mobil.

Well what I find funny is they keep basing how big the company is on Market Cap which is just Price per share x outstanding shares...

So in my mind the are the second biggest company because the Stock market likes them x They have a Ton of outstanding shares, if any of that changes they aren't big any more.

Now if you look at the list of companies by Revenues Apple is #197 for 2010

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...t/101_200.html

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply

"I just got lost in thought. It was unfamiliar territory." - proverb
RepairZoom.com Best Apple fix around!
Best Buy - Special Agent 5 Years
Apple - Specialist 1 1/2 Years
Best Years of my LIFE!

Reply
post #17 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by RepairZoom View Post

Well what I find funny is they keep basing how big the company is on Market Cap which is just Price per share x outstanding shares...

So in my mind the are the second biggest company because the Stock market likes them x They have a Ton of outstanding shares, if any of that changes they aren't big any more.

Now if you look at the list of companies by Revenues Apple is #197 for 2010

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...t/101_200.html

The reason the markets "like" AAPL is because of the growth in earnings. Revenues don't mean much if you don't earn, and even earnings don't mean much if they don't grow. The number of shares outstanding doesn't change the company's market valuation. In fact if the company created more shares, the resulting dilution would lower the share value for everyone else -- not increase it.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #18 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by RepairZoom View Post

Well what I find funny is they keep basing how big the company is on Market Cap which is just Price per share x outstanding shares...

So in my mind the are the second biggest company because the Stock market likes them x They have a Ton of outstanding shares, if any of that changes they aren't big any more.

Now if you look at the list of companies by Revenues Apple is #197 for 2010

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortu...t/101_200.html


...second most VALUABLE company in the world by market capitalisation. Not biggest or bestest (It is one of the bestest)or the most profitable, but one of the most valuable. Pick the right metric people.

I only know 10 people that get the
binary joke

Reply

I only know 10 people that get the
binary joke

Reply
post #19 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

If you read the original linked article, it is more clear that Forrester is predicting a 50% revenue increase annually over the next two years for Apple, toppling IBM's sales in a year, and then HP's sales in two years.

Where is the 'original linked article'? I don't see any links?

Add: OK, I see that you were referring to the Bloomberg interview. The headline is the same (confusing), but reading the article, it does seem to imply '50% annually for the next two years'.
post #20 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by RepairZoom View Post

The problem is it was Steve who did it and arguably continues to do it, so the question is, with out him can Apple continue as it does today....

Good question. Who was it who said here on AI that Steve Jobs's greatest product is Apple itself?

Which in turn has become a machine for dreaming up and realizing great products in the most thorough way possible. It may be self-sustaining, with or without Steve Jobs. We don't know, because there has never been such a company with this kind of focus. It's like they've discovered a new industry based on a new resource: the desire of people to be brilliantly connected to everything all the time.

They're just getting started. Everyone is going to need -- not only want -- a tablet. Video communication is going to be really big. And wearable eyeglass screens haven't been given the Apple treatment, for example.

Fifty percent growth year over year may be conservative. If the electricity stays on, that is.
post #21 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Remember, every two years they have to fill that store with new stuff, Colony said, referring to Apple Retail Stores. Without Steve Jobs as the CEO, I think it will be much harder for them to do that. That would be a massive, massive hit to the valuation.

I see this differently. I don't believe Apple creates products on a schedule. I think they create it with their hearts. Why two years Forrester? Does he think Apple was late with the iPad since it was 3 years after their latest new (hit) product?

And then to see that you need to pay in order to read the articles on their website.
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
How to enter the Apple logo  on iOS:
/Settings/Keyboard/Shortcut and paste in  which you copied from an email draft or a note. Screendump
Reply
post #22 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I see this differently. I don't believe Apple creates products on a schedule. I think they create it with their hearts. Why two years Forrester? Does he think Apple was late with the iPad since it was 3 years after their latest new (hit) product?

And then to see that you need to pay in order to read the articles on their website.

You can bet your bottom dollar they work on a schedule. The difference between Apple and, say, Microsoft, is that Apple can actually meet their product release schedules. This is not something done with the heart, it's done with good planning and management.

Of course you need to pay to see research reports. Forrester is not a charity.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Firm sees apps driving 50% sales growth for Apple through 2012