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Japan disaster hasn't 'meaningfully impacted' Apple's iPad 2 supply

post #1 of 46
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Despite initial concerns that the earthquake in Japan might result in a shortage of components for devices like Apple's iPad 2, a new report says the impact so far has only been "modest" at worst.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Friday that he believes demand for the iPad 2 will continue to outstrip supply into the June 2011 quarter. He said the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan will play a part in limited supplies, but not one as great as was originally feared.

"Apple recently reduced US iPad 2 lead times, which suggests the situation in Japan has not meaningfully impacted iPad 2 supply," Munster wrote. "We believe the most critical suppliers are back up and running following the earthquake and the impact to supply will be modest."

Munster said that both iPad 2 and iPhone 4 supply could be impacted with delays of one to two weeks. That's more optimistic than some earlier takes on the situation, like one that suggested the Japan disaster could leave Apple with a shortage of five key components of the iPad 2.

Just last week, Munster reported that the production status from Apple's Japanese component suppliers was changing hour by hour. But at the time, none of Apple's partners could quantify the damage at their facilities.

Though Apple has experienced crushing demand for the iPad 2 in the U.S. since its launch earlier this month, the company this week improved shipping time estimates to between three and four weeks, suggesting supply is catching up with demand. The change came as Apple begins selling the iPad 2 in 25 countries around the world at 5 p.m. local time today.
post #2 of 46
25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.
post #3 of 46
Kind of ironic that iPad2 parts are coming from Japan despite the earthquake, but they won't be able to buy iPad2's.....because of the earthquake.
post #4 of 46
Then why is it that a Premium Reseller in Germany hasn't got any iPads today???
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post #5 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.

It should. Japan is going to have to keep their industry flowing if they want to rebuild their infrastructure and their citizen's lives.
post #6 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.

post #7 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

It should. Japan is going to have to keep their industry flowing if they want to rebuild their infrastructure and their citizen's lives.


Somehow this reply makes me think of G.W. Bush telling us all to go out and shop for more crap to save ourselves from financial meltdown. Ugh. Please tell me that's not what you mean...
post #8 of 46
Then why there's a 2/3 weeks delivery time on the iPad2 when ordered 2 minutes after launch this morning at 1:00AM?
post #9 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

Somehow this reply makes me think of G.W. Bush telling us all to go out and shop for more crap to save ourselves from financial meltdown. Ugh. Please tell me that's not what you mean...

Really??! That's what you got from his reply?

How about the idea that any impact from the earthquake would have been in the form of factory shutdowns that would have caused parts shortages for various electronics manufacturers... and therefore a minimal impact to Apple most likely means that those factories are still able to continue running... therefore keeping $$$ flowing and jobs in place.
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post #10 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Really??! That's what you got from his reply?

How about the idea that any impact from the earthquake would have been in the form of factory shutdowns that would have caused parts shortages for various electronics manufacturers... and therefore a minimal impact to Apple most likely means that those factories are still able to continue running... therefore keeping $$$ flowing and jobs in place.

+1

And that's a fact!
post #11 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corax View Post

Then why is it that a Premium Reseller in Germany hasn't got any iPads today???

No need to be coy, Roy. Name the system... uh, I mean, name the "premium reseller".

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post #12 of 46
I would just like to send out a big "thank you" to all the dumb a$$es that dumped Apple shares. You gave me an unexpected chance to pick up some more AAPL at a discount price.
post #13 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.

Oh thank you, morally superior one, for showing us the way

Here's the thing -- the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident in Japan are an immense tragedy. Other than a handful of d-bags, I don't think that anyone questions that. But just as life had to go on after 9-11, so too must life go on now. If, in October of 2001, someone had suggested going into NYC for a broadway play without failing to first spend 15 minutes lamenting the tragedy of 9-11, would that make them a bad person?

There is tragedy, death, and destruction every day of the year in every country on this planet. If we all had to lament these things every time we bring up a topic that is related, we'd never get anything done.
post #14 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Oh thank you, morally superior one, for showing us the way

Here's the thing -- the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident in Japan are an immense tragedy. Other than a handful of d-bags, I don't think that anyone questions that. But just as life had to go on after 9-11, so too must life go on now. If, in October of 2001, someone had suggested going into NYC for a broadway play without failing to first spend 15 minutes lamenting the tragedy of 9-11, would that make them a bad person?

There is tragedy, death, and destruction every day of the year in every country on this planet. If we all had to lament these things every time we bring up a topic that is related, we'd never get anything done.

Blastdoor is right. Is Munster supposed to drop Apple coverage because of what happened in Japan? Or is AI supposed to censor it? Or are we supposed to not read it and ignore our investment in aapl? Does Freethinker know where the line is for all of us?
post #15 of 46
That Gene Muster reverses himself so soon (as he did by the way) in his estimates of the sales of the original iPad getting his final estimate fall flat by 50%***) -- only proves how shaliow his analysis is. If I were the head of Piper Jaffrey, I would be very embarassed with his highly erratic analysis. Even his quarterly analysis are subpar many of the times.

And, if I am not mistaken it is the same Neil Hughes who simply regurgitates Munster's "analyses" without even much of a question whether the analysis has any substance or not.

To point out that this week's analysis is different from last week is almost ridiculous. Of course, they are different. Does it require anyone to be told that? Maybe some Apple Insider readers????

And, Apple Insider keeps on letting Hughes\\ be one of their freelancers using a byline.

CGC

***The irony of the original iPad all over the place predictions of Gene Munster was that if he stuck with one of his "older predictions", he would have nailed it as Steve Jobs reported.

  1. "Gene Munster predicted that there will be no significant lines for the iPad2 opening because...."
  2. "Gene Munster predicted that Apple would sell 45 million iPhones in 2009 (with a long list of factors leading to that number"
  3. "Gene Munster predicted that Apple would release a mini-iPhone...." (several times already.
  4. "Gene Munster predicted that Apple would reduce the price of the MacBook to $800..." (several times too)


If memory serves me, he also predicted, based from his careful analysis that the original iPad would sell in the range of $500-700 and that it would sell a couple of millions during the first year.

If one does a thorough search, maybe one would find that his incorrect predictions may be a longer list that his years as an analyst. In quarterly reports, he would be more often be at the lower tier (of course with the guessing game, one can always guess correctly as predicted by the principles of statistics.
post #16 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

Somehow this reply makes me think of G.W. Bush telling us all to go out and shop for more crap to save ourselves from financial meltdown. Ugh. Please tell me that's not what you mean...

That would make more sense than going and kicking around soccer balls in the slums.
post #17 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by warnaud View Post

Then why there's a 2/3 weeks delivery time on the iPad2 when ordered 2 minutes after launch this morning at 1:00AM?

That's because the iPad2 is a sizzling hot product and very much in demand, earthquake or no earthquake, tsunami or no tsunami.
post #18 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

Blastdoor is right. Is Munster supposed to drop Apple coverage because of what happened in Japan? Or is AI supposed to censor it? Or are we supposed to not read it and ignore our investment in aapl? Does Freethinker know where the line is for all of us?

Classic humanism. We each choose our own ethics, and we must be as equally 'right' as everyone else. "Don't imply I'm a bad person."

There's hope for a few folks on this forum yet. Even the Grinch's heart grew three sizes that day...
post #19 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

That's because the iPad2 is a sizzling hot product and very much in demand, earthquake or no earthquake, tsunami or no tsunami.

As tragic as it is in Japan, I doubt that it became a 24X7 media event frenzy elsewhere as it did in US. Something else will happen and Japan will be relegated to the occasional update like Haiti. Even Libya fell nearly fell out of the news coverage until the no fly zone event.
post #20 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by pridon View Post

As tragic as it is in Japan, I doubt that it became a 24X7 media event frenzy elsewhere as it did in US. Something else will happen and Japan will be relegated to the occasional update like Haiti. Even Libya fell nearly fell out of the news coverage until the no fly zone event.

Just curious... why would you doubt that other countries are/were also covering the situation in Japan 24/7?

[ more on topic... a little over 60 people lined up in downtown Vancouver for the iPad2 ]
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post #21 of 46
Should my new iPad 2 be glowing after I turn it off?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #22 of 46
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Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Should my new iPad 2 be glowing after I turn it off?

I would have to say 'no', but then some of the components are made in Japan and could be radioactive....

(sorry....tasteless joke.....if I worked for Aflac I'd be fired....)
post #23 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMoan View Post

But you are absolutely right.

No he's not. I laugh at and ridicule any holier than thou comments exhibited by sanctimonious blowhards who presume to know and judge others on an online forum.
post #24 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

No he's not. I laugh at and ridicule any holier than thou comments exhibited by sanctimonious blowhards who presume to know and judge others on an online forum.

The great thing is that they play both sides. If every story is about the tragedy in Japan, then it's a "media feeding frenzy" or it's "the media is trying to exploit this story for ratings". But then if a story is posted that is related to anything about this event other than the tragedy of it, then it's heartless and insensitive.

I don't deny that there are heartless and insensitive people out there, or that there are tasteless stories about the tragedy in Japan. In some forums, I've actually seen people say that they think the Japanese deserved it, or they're happy about it, etc. I think that's disgusting and evil. But to come down on Munster or AI for not ritualistically flagellating themselves every time they mention Japan is either self-righteous or morally confused.
post #25 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Should my new iPad 2 be glowing after I turn it off?

Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post

I would have to say 'no', but then some of the components are made in Japan and could be radioactive....

(sorry....tasteless joke.....if I worked for Aflac I'd be fired....)

That was the joke he was originally making! lol
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post #26 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMoan View Post

Some day the youthful members of this community will grow up and realize one simple fact: You can't take it with you.

Yes, I would like one pyramid please! Instead of hieroglyphics, just make it Apple logos.

But yeah, I've heard someone actually say "Stupid earthquake. I was hoping to get the new iPad today." Then again, this is the same place where my husband and I were talking about the quake and no one chimed in. As soon as he said something about a certain crazy actor, then 5 people around us jumped in on the conversation. \
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post #27 of 46
This is not a surprising report. (The earlier analyst's report on this - which seemed to contribute to a significant dowward movement in Apple stock price -- was just canard.)

Any half-way decent company makes contingency plans around such disaster scenarios.
post #28 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Really??! That's what you got from his reply?

How about the idea that any impact from the earthquake would have been in the form of factory shutdowns that would have caused parts shortages for various electronics manufacturers... and therefore a minimal impact to Apple most likely means that those factories are still able to continue running... therefore keeping $$$ flowing and jobs in place.

Exactly, well said. Would these people prefer Japan's economy was damaged worse so they can feel more sympathy?
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #29 of 46
Moderators ... this thread is a waste of everyone's time ... I'm sure it does not reflect the quality that is desired here.
post #30 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post

Kind of ironic that iPad2 parts are coming from Japan despite the earthquake, but they won't be able to buy iPad2's.....because of the earthquake.

Not really that ironic. We got semiconductor technology from those crashed alien saucers in 1947, but you don't see an Apple Store opening on Zeta Reticuli.

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John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #31 of 46
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Originally Posted by madhatter61 View Post

Moderators ... this thread is a waste of everyone's time ... I'm sure it does not reflect the quality that is desired here.

The desired quality is ad click throughs. It has nothing to do with wasting everyone's time.

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post #32 of 46
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Originally Posted by mstone View Post

The desired quality is ad click throughs. It has nothing to do with wasting everyone's time.

... and here I thought forums were here specifically to waste one's time...
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post #33 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.

That's the spirit! You're always looking for that silver lining in every storm cloud!

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #34 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by madhatter61 View Post

Moderators ... this thread is a waste of everyone's time ... I'm sure it does not reflect the quality that is desired here.

Because posting on a forum in general is a very productive use of time, right? It's right up there with staring at wallpaper, in terms of productivity.
post #35 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... and here I thought forums were here specifically to waste one's time...

Not to mention Facebook. If "wastes of time' are no longer allowed on the Internet, several large companies are going to be totally wiped out.
post #36 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Not to mention Facebook. If "wastes of time' are no longer allowed on the Internet, several large companies are going to be totally wiped out.

ZING!

I like it....
post #37 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by freethinker View Post

25,000 killed or missing. Radioactivity in the water at 10,000x's normal levels. But Apple's bottom line is unscathed - that put pep in my step for the day.

I'm not going to weigh in on the nasty little moral battle everyone is having, but for the record ... almost everything you've heard about the reactors in Japan, the threat of meltdown, the presence of radiation and the level of danger is absolute nonsense.

Even the reports from Reuters and CNN or any "serious" news agency you want to name are more on the level of tabloid news than informative factual journalism. The explosions you've heard about for instance were a result of purposeful action on the part of those cooling down the reactor, not "accidents" and most of the deadly radiation you keep hearing about has a half life of about 8 days.

I'm not saying it isn't serious stuff, but unless you live right next door to the reactor in question this is nothing even close to a Chernobyl type deal or even that serious. Seriously. Smoking cigarettes puts you in far greater danger of imminent death or cancer than living right up the street from this reactor.

People are focussing on the nuclear reactor because it frightens them when they should be focussing on the tsunami damage which is appalling and caused 10's of thousands of deaths and more problems besides.
post #38 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I'm not going to weigh in on the nasty little moral battle everyone is having, but for the record ... almost everything you've heard about the reactors in Japan, the threat of meltdown, the presence of radiation and the level of danger is absolute nonsense.

Even the reports from Reuters and CNN or any "serious" news agency you want to name are more on the level of tabloid news than informative factual journalism. The explosions you've heard about for instance were a result of purposeful action on the part of those cooling down the reactor, not "accidents" and most of the deadly radiation you keep hearing about has a half life of about 8 days.

I'm not saying it isn't serious stuff, but unless you live right next door to the reactor in question this is nothing even close to a Chernobyl type deal or even that serious. Seriously. Smoking cigarettes puts you in far greater danger of imminent death or cancer than living right up the street from this reactor.

Iodine 131 decays with a half-life of 8 days but it has been shown to cause cancer by mutating the cells of the thyroid. Radioactive particles if ingested concentrate in the thyroid. Just because the half life is eight days doesn't address the fact that people are being exposed all day, everyday and the effects can multiply over time. In case you haven't heard cancer can be deadly.

I suppose the 30+ engineers that died in the explosions didn't get the memo that the purposeful explosions were being triggered.

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post #39 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMoan View Post

It's obvious from the replies that you struck a nerve on this forum. But you are absolutely right.

We may feel for the Japanese, but the bottom line for most people is money. It's truly disgusting that the people are complaining about lack of iPads or boasting how their stock climbed.

I'm inclined to agree. Sure, it would be great to hear that Japan's economy is recovering from the disaster. Something along the lines of "Toshiba factory is back to full capacity." What seems insensitive is to couch it in terms of, "Well, you won't have to worry about being able to buy an iPad." It's all about what's being emphasized. Is the focus on Japan, or is it on "us, us, us"?
post #40 of 46
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