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Continued lines for Apple's iPad 2 create 'shock and awe,' sales forecasts surge - Page 2

post #41 of 135
Finally scored a Black 16gb wifi Ipad 2 from Radioshack today. Store in Midtown manhattan received 3. Called a store in a shady part of Brooklyn received 12. Chinese guy in front of me bought the last two 3g AT&T Ipad 2 in the Brooklyn store. He was definitely a reseller :-/.
post #42 of 135
They are still all off by a cool 10 million:

Repeating my previous posts the day it was presented:

40 mil = safe bet
50 mil = incredible... but still not surprised;
60 mil = possible... but only IF Apple can produce them... now THAT would rock any investor's socks... and hard!

Regardless: sold out through Jan. 2012... and then it starts all over again folks
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #43 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffharris View Post

My GF & I walked past the SoHo Apple Store on iPad2-Day. We were both a surprised that at least 75% of the people in line were Chinese... and it DID wrap around the block. We thought it was a bit weird, since most of the tourists in SoHo are plump middle-Americans.

They weren't really Chinese, it's just that people tend to see people in line for iPads as Chinese because of this massive media conspiracy that has us all brainwashed and confused. And anyways what does "Chinese" look like...did you see any passports? Oh and don't get me started on "middle-American" what the heck does that look like!?

<sarcasm...kind of>
post #44 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by dish View Post

And anyways what does "Chinese" look like...did you see any passports?

They're Chinese alright. I am an expert at spotting and telling the difference between various Asian peoples.
post #45 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

They are still all off by a cool 10 million:

Repeating my previous posts the day it was presented:

40 mil = safe bet
50 mil = incredible... but still not surprised;
60 mil = possible... but only IF Apple can produce them... now THAT would rock any investor's socks... and hard!

Regardless: sold out through Jan. 2012... and then it starts all over again folks

40M x $600 = $24,000,000,000
50M x $600 = $30,000,000,000
60M x $600 = $36,000,000,000

where $600 is the average sale price per unit.

Seeing as how they sold 7.33M in Q1 2011 I think 40M is very doable, but will have to see what the first quarter sales and get info on potential production limitations before predicting more than that, since the production rate does appear to be the greatest limiting factor at this point.

I think we have all the signs of another iPod in market dominance and its possible the iPad will bring in more revenue and profit than the iPhone in couple years.
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post #46 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

They're Chinese alright. I am an expert at spotting and telling the difference between various Asian peoples.

There probably isn't a thing Apple can do about it either, very frustrating. Units are being allocated and shipped to this market for people here, not overseas. Foreign resellers are taking units away from us.

Are these people even US citizens? Suppose they weren't, would Apple be in their right to require proof of a US address to sell to them (as in they need a license or state ID). Would this even curb the issue at all, or are the Chinese resellers already US citizens with ID?
post #47 of 135
It's clear from all of the reports I've read that Apple allocated 0 units to their online store from the initial UK shipment. Many people have been caught out by untrustworthy retailers indicating that they have stock when they don't (and charging people's credit cards straight away).

It's deeply frustrating
post #48 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by REC View Post

Are these people even US citizens? Suppose they weren't, would Apple be in their right to require proof of a US address to sell to them (as in they need a license or state ID). Would this even curb the issue at all, or are the Chinese resellers already US citizens with ID?

Even if they weren't, Apple doesn't have a policy to only sell to US citizens in the US. Many tourists come to the US and buy Apple products from Apple stores and then bring them back home when they leave.

Apple did have a credit card policy only last time, but they got rid of it after some bad publicity hit the news about some poor old woman who was unable to buy an iPad with her cash which she had saved up. At the very least, Apple should limit sales to 1 per customer or 1 per family for the first few months of a product launch as in demand as the iPad.
post #49 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Everyone needs a phone.

But not everyone needs a tablet.

The market is not enough for "trial and error" products like early Android phones.

It is likely that more than four billion people in the world cannot even afford a phone, more than a biilion may even have the romotest idea about phones because most of their time and efforts are so focused on just either finding food for each day. and many more just finding ways to feel secure.

But, I did get your analogy about the role of iPad and tablets in people's lives.

CGC
post #50 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Apple created their own Unicorn a spry power buck and they are riding that b**** all the way to the bank. On the other hand Google has caught something. Not a Unicorn but an effing 20 year old mare with a fu***** catenary as a spine.
Sorry fandroid!

Actually, Google thought they were being smart and they captured what they assumed was a young stallion. What they caught was actually Thumbilina.


Cute, but not nearly as useful as you would think.
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post #51 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1 View Post

Because then I would have to reorder and wait another 4 weeks from that point. The whole thing is ridiculous.

Like I said, Apple had my money and put it back into my account. I recall them doing this with people after the iPhone 4 launch where people were having their orders mysteriously cancelled.

The whole thing is just ridiculous that Apple didn't set aside a unit specifically for you! How could they!?

Grow up for crying out loud.
post #52 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

They're Chinese alright. I am an expert at spotting and telling the difference between various Asian peoples.

Do tell. How can we profile someone and know they are Chinese and not, say, from Vietnam or Tiawan or Korea. Can you tell what province they are from by looking at them or their accent?
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post #53 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

The whole thing is just ridiculous that Apple didn't set aside a unit specifically for you! How could they!?

Grow up for crying out loud.

Hey man, I don't know about you, but when I buy a new toy and have to wait on it, it sounds like a complete pain in the ass to have my money refunded and order cancelled without any explanation, and an additional wait.
post #54 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Do tell. How can we profile someone and know they are Chinese and not, say, from Vietnam or Tiawan or Korea. Can you tell what province they are from by looking at them or their accent?

It's a combination of various profiling techniques which comes naturally to me. None of the things in this list alone is enough to be certain, but when you add all of them together, it gives you a very good indicator as to where somebody is from.

(1) Facial features
(2) Clothes and identifying cultural items (such as a Chinese sack using traditional Chinese patterns)
(3) Language is usually a good give away. The Chinese guy standing on line next to me on the huge iPad line was not a scalper and he was able to translate for me in realtime some of the scalper's conversations. He was walking up and down the line, and most every scalper on that line was speaking Chinese. They all knew each other.

Even the Appleinsider article notes that they were speaking Mandarin and Cantonese. I'm not good enough to tell the difference between various Chinese dialects, but I have a good ear and I can tell the difference between somebody speaking Chinese or Japanese or Korean.

In the end, it all comes down to common sense and putting together easily available facts.
post #55 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

Hey man, I don't know about you, but when I buy a new toy and have to wait on it, it sounds like a complete pain in the ass to have my money refunded and order cancelled without any explanation, and an additional wait.

It also sounds odd that a company that is actively shipping and selling these devices would take someones money, sit it on for a few weeks, and then decide to not ship them the item they are trying to sell but instead refund the money without any reason. Something doesnt make sense.
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post #56 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post
They're Chinese alright. I am an expert at spotting and telling the difference between various Asian peoples.

Do tell. How can we profile someone and know they are Chinese and not, say, from Vietnam or Tiawan or Korea. Can you tell what province they are from by looking at them or their accent?

It boggles the mind indeed to know that someone like Apple ][ can be an expert "at spotting and telling the difference between various Asian peoples" when we Asians even cannot do it ourselves all the time or most of the time.

I myself have been mistaken to be a Malaysian, Indonesian, Thai, Vietnamese, Chinese, Laotian from people of these races. I am not surprised how many Hispanics mistake me to be one also; but even some Italians (and this is in Italy itself). I was mistaken as one.

What I find amazing is that not too Caucassian Americans have ever mistaken me to be an American, which I happen to be also, apart from being Asian.

One very stupid American, who was there to sell me his religion, asked me first if I speak English. And, I answered; "I don't!} -- before closing the door.

CGC
post #57 of 135
With the high rate of demand worldwide, and the long lines greeting the arrival of iPad 2 everywhere, I wonder if there would be any buyers left for other competing tablets?
I wonder how Samsung, Motorola, HP and Research in Motion are feeling right now. Some of their products have not even seen the light of the day.
post #58 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

....People want choice and of course the people who love to heavily tinker will never get an iOS based product. Apple will lose ground and most likey not lead the tablet market in the very near future....

Because there are more people who like to tinker with their phones and tablets than those who don't? Not following your logic here...
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post #59 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by haruhiko View Post

Everyone needs a phone.

But not everyone needs a tablet.

The market is not enough for "trial and error" products like early Android phones.

I find this to be a false statement/analogy, whatever.

To some people, perhaps many people, the iPad is a computer. It is a laptop replacement. It is a 'more than good enough' PC.

So to adjust your statement:

Not everyone needs a phone, but everyone needs a computer.

The growth potential on iPads, in the long term, is probably greater than ipods, iphones and macs.
post #60 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

Analysts who increase their estimated iPad shipments based on demand are clueless. Apple will sell 100% of what they make short of a manufacturing miracle. The sole determiner of iPads shipped in 2011 is how many iPads Apple can manufacture in 2011. If they have any observations on supply chains, increased build efficiency, or improved processes, THAT could lead to an increase in 2011 iPad estimates.


You said it. I totally agree.
post #61 of 135
Stopped by the local store yesterday. Gal in front said they had gotten 40 iPads that morning. 40. There are 18 models and people are allowed to buy 2. Hardly worth waiting in line with the scalpers and soccer moms with nothing else to do with their time. I have a job. So I am supposed to take vacation time to get one? I don't think so Apple. The gal said I could order on line and I'd have it "in ONLY 4 weeks!". She seemed excited she could help me out there....
post #62 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

Analysts who increase their estimated iPad shipments based on demand are clueless. Apple will sell 100% of what they make short of a manufacturing miracle. The sole determiner of iPads shipped in 2011 is how many iPads Apple can manufacture in 2011. If they have any observations on supply chains, increased build efficiency, or improved processes, THAT could lead to an increase in 2011 iPad estimates.

Correct.

The original iPad did not achieve full worldwide distribution. It was marketed to a subset of Apple's iPhone/iPod countries. There is plenty of growth in existing markets, and more growth in untapped markets.

Supply will be the limiting factor.
post #63 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

It's a combination of various profiling techniques which comes naturally to me. None of the things in this list alone is enough to be certain, but when you add all of them together, it gives you a very good indicator as to where somebody is from.

(1) Facial features
(2) Clothes and identifying cultural items (such as a Chinese sack using traditional Chinese patterns)
(3) Language is usually a good give away. The Chinese guy standing on line next to me on the huge iPad line was not a scalper and he was able to translate for me in realtime some of the scalper's conversations. He was walking up and down the line, and most every scalper on that line was speaking Chinese. They all knew each other.

Even the Appleinsider article notes that they were speaking Mandarin and Cantonese. I'm not good enough to tell the difference between various Chinese dialects, but I have a good ear and I can tell the difference between somebody speaking Chinese or Japanese or Korean.

In the end, it all comes down to common sense and putting together easily available facts.


So, to test your expertise, who among these photos, taken from the internet, is a South Korean, Chinese, Hispanic, American, Vietnamese or of some other Asian nationality?

For every mistake you make, you will agree not to post here for a month,

and for every correct guess you make, I will not post here for a month

CGC
post #64 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Wrong. Some Apple stores have had thousands of units in stock which were gone in mere hours. It's not like there's two iPads per store and Apple is intentionally holding back supply.

on launch day sure. But no store is likely to be getting thousands of units every day. And based on the dozens of articles etc, they are not. There are only perhaps 20 stores that could possibly hold that many and reports are that they are getting maybe 300-400 any given day if they get any. But most stores get perhaps 100 and then nothing for several days

And according to the various alleged insiders yes they are holding stock to a degree. Supposedly managers are told not to open shipments until the next day excluding Saturdays when they are to sell everything, screw anyone that comes on Sunday.

What I find shocking is that they haven't gone to the wait list system they used in the past. They could avoid pissy customers showing up and waiting for nothing. And they would hav a way to judge what models to ship to stores and not have folks buying whatever they can get and returning it later to get at they really want. And i'm sure the NYPD would love the end of the lines outside of 5th ave
post #65 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

For every mistake you make, you will agree not to post here for a month,

and for every correct guess you make, I will not post here for a month

For every post you stop making about this semi-racist, off-topic drivel, I'll thank both of you.

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post #66 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

So, to test your expertise, who among these photos, taken from the internet, is a South Korean, Chinese, Hispanic, American, Vietnamese or of some other Asian nationality?

For every mistake you make, you will agree not to post here for a month,

and for every correct guess you make, I will not post here for a month

CGC


Oh for fuck's sake!

Actually... the mods probably want to see this game played out... [ if for nothing else to get rid of you guys for a while... they probably want me to play as well... ]
na na na na na...
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na na na na na...
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post #67 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

So, to test your expertise, who among this photos is a South Korean, Chinese, Hispanic, American, Vietnamese and American

[]

For every mistake you make, you will agree not to post here for a month, and for every correct guess you make, I will not post here for a month

CGC

  1. Filipino
  2. Japanese-American
  3. South Korean
  4. Chinese
  5. American
  6. Vietnamese
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post #68 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

For every post you stop making about this semi-racist, off-topic drivel, I'll thank both of you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh for fuck's sake!

Actually... the mods probably want to see this game played out...

It looks like we should hope he guesses 3 right and 3 wrong.
post #69 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh for fuck's sake!

Actually... the mods probably want to see this game played out... [ if for nothing else to get rid of you guys for a while... they probably want me to play as well... ]

BAN ALL 5 OF THEM
racists

>>>>>
by 2015
Apple will sell 22 million IPADS4 and IPADS4 mini model A MONTH

Apple will also continue to sell IPAD3 AND APPLE 3G as classic cheaper models
for the 3 rd world crowd and or large schools // companies

just saying

9
whats in a name ? 
beatles
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whats in a name ? 
beatles
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post #70 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

BAN ALL 5 OF THEM
racists

Its impossible for me to be a racist because I dont believe there are such things as races. We are all the same species and subspecies. Homo sapiens sapiens, a species so good you have to say it twice.
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post #71 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by REC View Post

I find this to be a false statement/analogy, whatever.

To some people, perhaps many people, the iPad is a computer. It is a laptop replacement. It is a 'more than good enough' PC.

So to adjust your statement:

Not everyone needs a phone, but everyone needs a computer.

The growth potential on iPads, in the long term, is probably greater than ipods, iphones and macs.

"The growth potential on iPads, in the long term, is probably greater than ipods, iphones and macs" and PCs.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #72 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post

It is likely that more than four billion people in the world cannot even afford a phone, more than a biilion may even have the romotest idea about phones because most of their time and efforts are so focused on just either finding food for each day. and many more just finding ways to feel secure.

But, I did get your analogy about the role of iPad and tablets in people's lives.

CGC

Nonsense. Africa is a major market for mobile phones ( admittedly, mostly, cheap ones). China is huge and growing. Most of the rest of the world is middle income.
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post #73 of 135
Got my iPad 2 yesterday after ordering online. I do not see what the big deal is about ordering online and having to wait for a bit to get it. Frankly, it was not an issue for me, my life went on just fine not having the device.

Also, if someone orders and order gets cancelled "for no reason", call Apple. I have always found them to be very helpful and I would expect no different in this case. If the issue was on their end I would bet you get pushed to the front of the line. However, if the issue was on your end (credit card would not process, etc.), then stop whining.
post #74 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

It's a combination of various profiling techniques which comes naturally to me. None of the things in this list alone is enough to be certain, but when you add all of them together, it gives you a very good indicator as to where somebody is from.

(1) Facial features
(2) Clothes and identifying cultural items (such as a Chinese sack using traditional Chinese patterns)
(3) Language is usually a good give away. The Chinese guy standing on line next to me on the huge iPad line was not a scalper and he was able to translate for me in realtime some of the scalper's conversations. He was walking up and down the line, and most every scalper on that line was speaking Chinese. They all knew each other.

Even the Appleinsider article notes that they were speaking Mandarin and Cantonese. I'm not good enough to tell the difference between various Chinese dialects, but I have a good ear and I can tell the difference between somebody speaking Chinese or Japanese or Korean.

In the end, it all comes down to common sense and putting together easily available facts.

and at the end of the day there is nothing to stop anyone, of any race or creed, lining up to buy an iPad. Just a question of how bad you want it.

I don't want it that bad, so I will wait.

Then again, there are countless available on eBay if you can't be bothered lining up. For about 200 bucks someone did that for you.
post #75 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

  1. Filipino
  2. Japanese-American
  3. South Korean
  4. Chinese
  5. American
  6. Vietnamese

That was intended for Apple ][, but let me know if you want to challenge yourself too, about guessing the nationalities, and would consider being bound by the bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

It looks like we should hope he guesses 3 right and 3 wrong.

Actually, if he just takes the time to reason out his choices, he could get 60-80% correct. There are bonus photos that should be so easy, so he should be able to get 1-3. so that he can save face.. But I am giving too many clues already.

This is actually a test to debunk some notion who seem so certain about eaces.

It would be a good reprieve for me NOT to post here actually, it is just too much distratction from what I should be doing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh for fuck's sake!

Actually... the mods probably want to see this game played out... [ if for nothing else to get rid of you guys for a while... they probably want me to play as well... ]

Well, it was a challenge to a single person, but since solipsism entered the fray, everyone is welcome to join the challenge.. I will take the one with the most correct answers as my "punishment".
post #76 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Do tell. How can we profile someone and know they are Chinese and not, say, from Vietnam or Tiawan or Korea. Can you tell what province they are from by looking at them or their accent?

There are 56 chinese ethnicities in addition to 14 ethnicities not officially recognized by the government and several more Taiwanese Aborigines. Almost all of them speak mutually unintelligible languages as well. I'm pretty sure no one can recognize them all.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #77 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

There are 56 chinese ethnicities in addition to 14 ethnicities not officially recognized by the government and several more Taiwanese Aborigines. Almost all of them speak mutually unintelligible languages as well. I'm pretty sure no one can recognize them all.

Just had a Cliff Claven deja vu.
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post #78 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

There are 56 chinese ethnicities in addition to 14 ethnicities not officially recognized by the government and several more Taiwanese Aborigines. Almost all of them speak mutually unintelligible languages as well. I'm pretty sure no one can recognize them all.

Very true, it's more like Europe in a different setting. And, because many "Chinese" have been lifetime residents in other countries, they influenced the racial bloods of almost every nation in Asia.

A scientist did a genotyping study of Asians and Native Indians of the Americas (not only the Native Americans of the US), and he found ancestral links between Indians and Norther Asians (specially the Mongols). The Mongols themselves have ruled China for centuries, including some of the golden years of Chinese domination.

CGC
post #79 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

It's a combination of various profiling techniques which comes naturally to me.

Gruber links to an interesting story about Stanley Kubrick's unfinished movie about the Holocaust.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...an-papers.html

Too bad he's no longer with us, and working on it. You could have been a consultant on it.

Anyway REC and Dick Applebaum are right, and there will be an ongoing world shortage of iPads for the foreseeable. Better get used to it and stop with the ugly whining.
post #80 of 135
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post

Gruber links to an interesting story about Stanley Kubrick's unfinished movie about the Holocaust.

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...an-papers.html

Too bad he's no longer with us, and working on it. You could have been a consultant on it.

Anyway REC and Dick Applebaum are right, and there will be an ongoing world shortage of iPads for the foreseeable. Better get used to it and stop with the ugly whining.

https://twitter.com/sarahksilverman/...92684858970112
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