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IDC predicts Windows Phone will top Apple's iOS in market share by 2015

post #1 of 150
Thread Starter 
A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.

IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.

IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.

But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.

Growth of the multi-device Windows Phone platform is expected to be driven by Nokia's decision to adopt Microsoft's platform on its future mobile devices. Microsoft is said to be paying billions of dollars to Nokia in their arrangement.

"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," said Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC's Mobile Devices Technology and Trends team. "The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."



Accordingly, IDC sees the share of Nokia's once-dominant Symbian platform dropping significantly by 2015. In the next four years, IDC sees Symbian representing just 0.2 percent of shipments.

IDC sees the smartphone market growing more than four times faster than the overall mobile phone market in the coming years. However, in the firm's projections, smartphones will not see market growth in 2011 as strong as it was in 2010.

"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."

Earlier this year, IDC tracking found Apple to be the No. 2 global vendor of smartphones in terms of hardware sales. It found that Apple represented 16.1 percent of the smartphone market, trailing behind only Nokia, which represented an estimated 28 percent of hardware shipments in the fourth quarter of 2010.
post #2 of 150
? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...
post #3 of 150
if nokia remains relevant this may be true, but that is a big if.

all indications is that Nokia market share will crash and burn.

But if they get the microsoft OS on their future cheap and smart phones, this is possible, but not likely.
post #4 of 150
All I can think is "wow"! Either this guy knows something, or M$ paid him some money. There is no basis for such a claim.
post #5 of 150
Isn't it too early of a day for a joke like this?
post #6 of 150
Or M$ and Nokia will both be done.
post #7 of 150
What an inane interpretation of data...
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post #8 of 150
Well... if they are discussing market share in terms of what Android has done, then it's theoretically possible providing Nokia puts it on all their bargain-basement phones and the carriers essentially give the phones away.

However, when it comes to actually making money on those phones, me think Apple/iOS will still have everyone else gasping for air.

I don't care how awesome the software is if it is coupled with horrible/cheap hardware that ruins the entire experience. I think the joe-consumer is finally beginning to realize that.
post #9 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xian Zhu Xuande View Post

What an inane interpretation of data...

It might be a good idea to explain why otherwise you have very little credibility. You must give valid reasons.

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Originally by Rickers - 2014 : Cook & will bury Apple.  They can only ride Steve's ghost so long.



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post #10 of 150
A tad early on the April Fools.
post #11 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkstreet View Post

? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...

Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.

So basically they are talking about an OS tied to a single device holding steady to perhaps dropping less than a percent while the other systems have to hit multiple hardware attempts to duke it out for the rest of the market.

In terms of hardware, the iPhone could still rise up as the best selling hardware. Perhaps by a sizable margin

And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.

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post #12 of 150
Assuming that the people buying Symbian phones today from Nokia will switch to buying Windows phones from Nokia as is evident from just swapping the numbers in the table.

Nokia came out yesterday with a statement they still fully intend to support Symbian.
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post #13 of 150
They need a Sprint iPhone for us idiots who are stuck with Sprint because we like the Unlimited plan. I don't want an Android phone (I have enough risk of viruses with my PC), and Windows Phone 7 is boring and dated already and has very few apps.

But I'm due to upgrade in July. If Apple doesn't do something quick, I'll be stuck adding either to Google's or Microsoft's numbers.
post #14 of 150
This may happen, or it may not. Who knows. One thing is for sure: Apple will continue to inhale the vast majority of industry profits. And if that comes with smaller market share, Steve Jobs & Co. are perfectly fine with that.
post #15 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Android is poised to take over as the leading smartphone operating system in 2011 after racing into the number 2 position in 2010," Llamas said. "For the vendors who made Android the cornerstone of their smartphone strategies, 2010 was the coming-out party. This year will see a coronation party as these same vendors broaden and deepen their portfolios to reach more customers, particularly first-time smartphone users."

Apparently IDC does not believe Apple will broaden or deepen its phone portfolio between now and 2015.
post #16 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


And remember that not having a huge chunk of the market can be a good place re: antitrust and other legal issues. Apple may be very happy with a mere 15% if it means no one can sue and make the open the OS for licensing. Especially if that cut is bringing on money hand over fist with 100 of millions of iPhones being sold and billions of apps being bought.

Exactly. Apple is just gonna keep "doing their thing," which means making the best devices they can possibly make. The rest of the market can do whatever the hell they want.
post #17 of 150
I don't care what this guy says. There is a reason why Apple is hardcore and its competitor is nick-named Windoze!
post #18 of 150
This must be a joke!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

It might be a good idea to explain why otherwise you have very little credibility. You must give valid reasons.

I will give you one main reason.. No one is buying Windows phones now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not.

MS can license their Windows Phone OS to as many as they want. Their market share will go no where if no one is buying them. Right now, no one is buying WP7 phones.
post #19 of 150
LOL, IDC is always so funny.
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post #20 of 150
Oops, did I type IDG instead of IDC?

Yes I did. Because IDG (International Data Group), is the parent company of IDC (International Data Corporation.) Yup. *That* IDG. The very same IDG that publishes Macworld magazine and runs the Macworld Conference & Expo.

And yes, that would be the Macworld conference that Apple no longer bothers to attend. Apple and IDG's relationship went sour when IDG moved the summer Macworld from NYC back to Boston in 2005. Apple quit going to the summer Macworld. And Apple dumped IDG entirely when they announced that they wouldn't even attend MWSF any more.

Sour grapes? Probably not, but it really seems like industry analysts are acting more and more like bloggers. Publishing link-bait and basking in the glory.

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post #21 of 150
Is it getting cold in here? I think Hell may have just frozen over.
post #22 of 150
This is all a laugh..... typical Microsoft FUD.

Gee if Apple ends up with "only" 16% of the total smartphone market that would be huge seeing how fast smartphone handsets are going to grow.

My guess would be closer to 25%, but time will tell.... 2015 is way beyond anybody's prediction power. So much can happen in that time frame that can't be seen.....
post #23 of 150
In other news the end of the world will come in 2012 so none of this matters....
post #24 of 150
I don't pay a lot of attention to IDC's forecasts.

In mid 2010 IDC gave an authoritative forecast of 7.6M tablets sold worldwide for 2010.

They completely missed that. Why should they be any more accurate on the Windows phone (or anything else for that matter?)
post #25 of 150
Yes, and they will be the most miserable people alive.

Microsoft should just pay people to own win 7. They already buy everything else.

And this anal-ist was probably paid, Samsung like-to say it.
post #26 of 150
Opinons are like a*** - everyone's got one.
post #27 of 150
I actually lol'ed
post #28 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

I don't care how awesome the software is if it is coupled with overpriced/outdated/non-upgradable hardware that ruins the entire experience.

There fixed that for you.

This is about the Mac, right?



post #29 of 150
If only they had to place a wager on their prediction. By 2015 everyone will have forgotten this prediction.
post #30 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by mebbert View Post

All I can think is "wow"! Either this guy knows something, or M$ paid him some money. There is no basis for such a claim.

He's paid off. Think about it:

1) The forecast is based on nothing but speculation. There's nothing measurable, right now, that can be extrapolated to his conclusions.
2) MS needs to convince developers to create apps for their platform. They're paying them to do so, in fact. So - why not pay analysts, too? They need 'authorities' to tell the world Windows is the Next Big Thing on smartphones.

Yeah, Windows is the next iPhone killer. Just like Zune killed the iPod.
post #31 of 150
Oh, IDC, you really had me going there, but then I realized that you released your April 1st release three days early.
post #32 of 150
At what point will "smartphones" start to be simply "phones?"
post #33 of 150
I'm not so sure Windows Phone will become that big. It has been replaced in business, mostly by RIM, but a chunk are also on iOS. It also has only a handful of applications.

Another thing is that Nokia make cheaper products compared to the competition, have you seen the system requirements for Windows Phone 7?

WP7 needs (nothing is optional) a 1GHz CPU, 256MB of RAM at minimum, 8GB of built in memory at minimum, a DX9 capable GPU, a capacitive multi-touch screen, a five megapixel camera, GPS, Light sensor, accelerometer, compass, six hardware buttons and, for some strange reason, an FM Radio tuner.

A phone from Nokia that just meets those minimum requirements would still be several hundred to buy and would alienate their large user-base who are expecting something cheap and cheerful - it also would perform rather poorly and would give people more reason not to buy it. Given how undesirable Windows Phone is right now, I don't see Microsoft and Nokia coming out of this with a smile. I'll go fetch them some ibuprofen.

If it, somehow, works in their favour, I will eat my car.

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post #34 of 150
This prediction isn’t as crazy as people think, though I doubt Symbian will be that low. The IDC basically exchanged Symbian for WP7 on Nokia devices while still siphoning off a good deal of the Nokia’s sales to other vendor’s OSes.

I think it’s far too early to tell what 2015 will be like, but this isn’t even close to being improbable. WP7 is a good modern mobile OS. It’s still missing some key features, but these are features that iPhone OS and Android didn’t have when they first emerged and slated features that Android still doesn’t have ready. Because of this I don’t think we will be able to tell what WP7 can do for Nokia or the competition until we get some more evidence, which should be available this year.
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post #35 of 150
I think I should get a job as an analyst, cause clearly you can getnpaid to say just about anything. First off, Symbian will still be on feature phones, so I doubt it will be .02 percent . Second of all we still have not seen a single good windows phone or developer excitement. Third off it will be android, iOS, blackberry, windows phone ( if it is still around) in that order.

Remember there will never be windows phone tablets so the os market overall ( not just smartphone) will be tilted towards iOS a little more then windows.
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post #36 of 150
The "anal yst" behind this report is working on two "ass umptions"
1. Apple's strategy will remain unchanged
2. Nokia will effectively migrate 100% of its current user base to it's future platform
post #37 of 150
What I found interesting is that the Windows+Symbian share actually drops from 26.4% to 21.1%. The forecast for RIM might be a bit optimistic but other than that no other surprise.
post #38 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This prediction isn’t as crazy as people think, though I doubt Symbian will be that low. The IDC basically exchanged Symbian for WP7 on Nokia devices while still siphoning off a good deal of the Nokia’s sales to other vendor’s OSes.

I think it’s far too early to tell what 2015 will be like, but this isn’t even close to being improbable. WP7 is a good modern mobile OS. It’s still missing some key features, but these are features that iPhone OS and Android didn’t have when they first emerged and slated features that Android still doesn’t have ready. Because of this I don’t think we will be able to tell what WP7 can do for Nokia or the competition until we get some more evidence, which should be available this year.

Yea but not all symbians will migrate to windows phone 7. Those who use Symbian now are likely not in it for cutting edge software. Which means they are just as likely to hop on low end android as they are on wp7. Plus apple indicated they are gonna compete on low end as well.

I'd give windows phone 15 percent tops, and that is if they do something amazing or pay people to buy their phones.
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post #39 of 150
In the same time that the iPhone released till now, another gadget could take the place of all smart phones and cells. 3 years isnt that long in this world.
post #40 of 150
Ha ha!!!!!

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They were both wrong.

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They were both wrong.

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