Originally Posted by sflocal
Well... if they are discussing market share in terms of what Android has done, then it's theoretically possible
Yes, but lots of things are "theoretically possible" (including Blackberry taking 99% of the market for example), but the point of a "prediction" by analyst is that it's supposed to be the most likely outcome given the facts.
This is not that. It's really just guesswork based on some really questionable assumptions.
The most egregious part is the Windows Phone 7 prediction because there simply haven't been enough handsets sold to be even able to tell if consumers *like* the thing, yet here they are practically predicting world-wide dominance.
If Microsoft had just come out with a phone that was really popular
, (not true) but were having a hard time getting hardware partners (true) and *then* they merged Nokia, then this prediction might be justified. If Nokia's software development was crap (true) and the company was failing as a result (true), and had then been taken over by a software company that had a really hot OS (not true), that everyone was clamouring for (not true), then the prediction would also be valid.
The key point is that the prediction is only good if one assumes that Microsoft's new OS is the hottest thing since sliced bread, and that people will be switching to it in droves once it's out in the market. None of that is necessarily true.
Most would argue that it's simply not