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IDC predicts Windows Phone will top Apple's iOS in market share by 2015 - Page 3

post #81 of 150
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Originally Posted by IQ78 View Post

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How do I do it?

Spend 3 to 4 years playing on-line poker studying the game (reading as much material as possible.) Go to Vegas and play the suckas.

So, you should be more specific.... casino 'pit' games are for idiots. Poker is another story.

WOW! You spent that much time in preparation only to win $8,400?

Go to school. Learn a trade!
post #82 of 150
They didn't take into consideration the surprises Apple comes up with to knock Microsoft and everyone else back to the drawing board.
post #83 of 150
Of course, 14 months ago they predicted that Symbian would continue to dominate through 2013 at least , so...

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/26/i...droid-to-take/

It's amazing to me to see how many of the comments here seem to agree that Symbian will dominate with its superiority.
post #84 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

Good point on RIM -- you're probably right that I was too generous with them. My guess is that they'd go 50-30-20 Apple-MS-Android (unless MS tanks, in which case I'd agree with you)

How do you figure Android going down to 20%?

For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.
post #85 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Actually the numbers may not be off the mark. Remember they are looking at this in terms of operating systems and Windows and Android are open for anyone to license while iOs is not. .

Windows OS is not open.
post #86 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by macnyc View Post

Wow, what a pretentious reply.

First of all I had no argument, I simply asked what his point was.

He did not directly respond to the other persons comment. He was taking "lines" literally instead of figuratively, but so apparently did you.

And sorry, the PC market has nothing to do with the mobile market.

I didnt mean to come off pretentious. If the original comment was about actual lines then I dont see how it would make sense to later refer to figurative line when the correlation was about literal lines, hence my comment.
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post #87 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Windows OS is not open.

Windows is not open. That's kind of funny. Should be called Shutters OS.
post #88 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

How do you figure Android going down to 20%?

For that to happen, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, LG and Sony, not to mention up and coming Chinese vendors, will have to either fade into oblivion or abandon Android. I don't see either happening, unless MS can bribe all of them in the same way it bribed Nokia.

I dont think we should call the China Mobile OPhone derivative Android. That would be grouped under under other unless it gains a large enough marketshare to be put into its own, separate category.

And figuring Android will drop in marketshare does not mean they will drop in the number of models it is being shipped on, just as their rapid decline in growth does not mean it is being shipped on less units.
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post #89 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Windows is not open. That's kind of funny. Should be called Shutters OS.

Ha Ha ... I like that.
post #90 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

Exactly. Apple is just gonna keep "doing their thing," which means making the best devices they can possibly make. The rest of the market can do whatever the hell they want.

Definitely, Apple should just focus on "doing its thing" and revenue will continue to roll in. Market share without revenue doesn't mean a thing. As long as Apple continues to add value to the iPhone its cost will remain reasonably high and sales might not reach 25%, but Apple will continue to make the most money in the smartphone sector. App growth is likely to continue which will make quite a bundle for Apple. Apple shouldn't concern itself about the rest of the smartphone market. If Apple releases a lower cost smartphone in China, Apple will continue to do very well.

I thought Oracle still had some sort of patent claims over Android. Isn't that even being taken into consideration? It's rather amazing that analysts think that Android's growth will continue unimpeded by anything. They don't even give WebOS any credence.
post #91 of 150
This is a massive change in Symbian's fortunes from IDC's last report where they had Symbian at 20% in 2015. That impressed nokia so much they ditched the platform.

As Asymco pointed out today they have taken the Symbian share now, copied it, and pasted it into Nokia/ Window's share in 2015. This despite the fact that WP7 has very few apps, and little or no developer interest. They have to be bought. To assume that the entire Nokia smartphone market which is in decline ( a decline not shown in this report) will instantly move over to WP7 is to assume that

1) There is no decline in Nokia's share despite the significant falls up to now. The very reason they moved to WP7.
2) That customers are loyal to Nokia's brand and will stay loyal, and this will drive WP7's growth. This is contradicted by 1). and the very fact that Nokia abandoned Symbian. Nokia's brand cant make up for second rate software.
3) That WP7 will drive growth. It hasnt done much already. Even the 5% is suspect - I think they are guessing that it will be 5% at the end of the year.
4) That blackberry - which is in massive sequential decline in share - will stop declining and will stagnate, along with iOS, which has grown enormously in the last 5 years. They apparently cant read the simple graphs which show Android eating into RIM in the US while iOS stayed static, on one carrier.. Androids future growth is therefore at the expense of iOS.

Clearly this is nonsense - WP7 is going nowhere, it was a nice effort but too late. Apple and iOS on the other hand have perfectly obvious vectors of growth.

1) China.
2) Get on all carriers across the world.
3) All carriers in the US.
4) A cheaper model.
5) A reverse Halo effect from the iPad.
6) Unknown Unknowns - whatever Apple does next.

Android is the default option for everybody else. I see iOS at 30-40%.
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post #92 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by benanderson89 View Post

Another thing is that Nokia make cheaper products compared to the competition, have you seen the system requirements for Windows Phone 7?

WP7 needs (nothing is optional) a 1GHz CPU, 256MB of RAM at minimum, 8GB of built in memory at minimum, a DX9 capable GPU, a capacitive multi-touch screen, a five megapixel camera, GPS, Light sensor, accelerometer, compass, six hardware buttons and, for some strange reason, an FM Radio tuner..

^ This!

How can Nokia follow its past practice of cranking-out a plethora of models, when any of them with WP7 will -have- to look just like a clone of any other WP7 phone currently on the market?

The only way they can differentiate is by either bringing-out a minimum-spec WP7 phone at a great price, or going up-scale in features and hope their engineering reputation can attract people willing to pay more for a quality product.
post #93 of 150
What a pointless article. The mobile platform is evolving quickly with many surprises to come. There are many unknown variables such as (1) Amazon entering the Android market with full ecosystem, (2) Apple releasing low-end iPhone models, (3) possible merger/exit among "mature" mobile platforms (e.g., Blackberry).
post #94 of 150
IDC are making the mistake of thinking that Apple are going to stand still with developing the iPhone but one thing is certain and that is the iPhone of 2015 won't be the iPhone we know today. I can't imagine what it will be like and that is the point nobody has the imagination and insight of Jonny Ive and the rest of the Apple design team. Until the iPhone nobody could imagine what a smart phone would look like, after it was released they couldn't imagine anything other than an iPhone clone. Google with the Eric Schmidt connection shamelessly ripped off iOS. Exactly the same for the iPad. However as we all know market share doesn't necessarily equate to revenue. Android phones have sold because of their subsidised ecosystem. Apple ware is a premium product and their customers have historically been prepared to pay for a superior hardware/OS experience making Apple the manufacturer with the highest capital value. Over the next three years Apple will do something amazing that will shift the paradigm and leave the copycats trailing again, because in this particular market only Apple seems to be able to truly innovate the rest play catch up.
I seem to remember pundits, possibly I.D.C. saying that Microsoft was going to overtake Apple with the iPod-killing Zune and we all know how accurate that prediction was.
post #95 of 150
IDC = Idiots Doing Crack
post #96 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkstreet View Post

? really ??? I think it's time for me to get a job as an analyst...

RGOSA predicts, in 2017 Microsoft will be the leading producer of Hamburgers overtaking McDonalds.
post #97 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new forecast of the global smartphone platform market from research firm IDC has predicted that Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will see a resurgence in the next four years, overtaking Apple's iOS platform which powers the iPhone.

IDC on Tuesday revealed its prediction that the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2 percent in 2011, with more than 450 million smartphones shipped. That would be a major increase from the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010.

IDC sees Apple's iOS taking 15.7 percent of global smartphone operating system market shipments in 2011. That would place Apple's platform which powers the iPhone in third place, behind market leader Android, with 39.5 percent, and Symbian, with 20.9 percent.

But despite the tremendous growth of the iPhone since it was introduced in 2007, IDC sees Apple's platform share actually dipping in global share by 2015 to 15.3 percent. Perhaps most surprising is the firm's prediction that Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile will grow to 20.9 percent of the market by 2015.snip

Perhaps IDC is a reputable firm and thier analysts have break downs of the more details that supports this style of announcements. Sounds like MS hired you out, and your doing your do diligence to favor them. There are no bench marks, just numbers. The sad thing is people will read this and label it authentic and repeat this over and over. This is FUD over and over.

But the media is king and they can say any thing they want. Freedom of the press. Right? I and many like me also have the right to call this as pure folly.
post #98 of 150
Those numbers aren't really that illogical. Third party operating systems like Android and WP7 require manufacturer support to be successful. The more phone manufacturers they can get to commit to the OS, the better. They live and die by manufacturer support. Microsoft made a big score with Nokia, and it's not that unrealistic that WP7 could take Symbians place in the market. Most people weren't buying Nokia phones for the OS, they were buying it for the hardware and/or price. If Nokia owners wanted an iPhone or Android device, they've probably already jumped ship. The reasons for buying a Nokia phone won't change, but Nokia phones will come with WP7, so WP7 market share should rise as a result.

This guess is perfectly logical, but that doesn't mean it's right. There are other potential factors, like Apple expanding its lineup beyond one phone and a resurgence of WebOS under HP, but it is a reasonable guess.

I don't know why you guys want WP7 to fail so badly anyway. A successful WP7 platform divides manufacturers between Android and WP7 limiting the market potential of both operating systems, ensuring a competitive OS market and good app support for all operating systems, including iOS. When presented with the option of Android at 65% or Android at 45% and WP7 at 20%, I'd take the latter without question. Although market share is an over used metric in the first place since not everyone is playing the same game (Apple and RIM sell phones, Microsoft sells an OS and Google sells ads and distributes a free OS).
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post #99 of 150
That's the stupidest prediction ever. No matter how much Android eclipses iOS, Windows Phone will never pass it.
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post #100 of 150
AppleInsider analyst predicts IDC will be bankrupt in 2015.

(Disprove it, IDC).
post #101 of 150
It so annoys me when information is sensationalised so as to distort the interpretation of data. This article is rubbish, the title somehow suggests this huge resurgence of Windows and the demise of IOS.

What the data actually says is that Apple's IOS market share is unlikely to grow, that Android (due to its being readily available to any old tom-dick-and-harry and carrier neutrality) will grow, and that Nokia (who already have the largest global distribution network of cheap phones) will shift its OS (about which no one cared as its for low cost phones) from Symbian (20.9%) to WIndows (20.9%).

Why do these guys print this crap? There is not news here, its just sensationalised headlines to increase the click count, and its pissing me off. To interpret the numbers just might be a bit more useful to readers, rather than to stir things up.
post #102 of 150
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post #103 of 150
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Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I didnt mean to come off pretentious. If the original comment was about actual lines then I dont see how it would make sense to later refer to figurative line when the correlation was about literal lines, hence my comment.

First of all that response couldn't be anything but pretentious and not even pertinent.

You're reversing what I said. In the initial comment he was talking about figurative lines, in the sense that Apple was selling huge numbers. The reply was that there are more PCs sold than Macs. Which means nothing. He was taking "lines" as literal, confirmed by his "sprint" versus "marathon comment.

Asking what his point was clearly was a legitimate question given that you can't seem to figure it out either.
post #104 of 150
ROFLOL, ROFLOL, ROFLOL - ah, the anal-ists... clueless. How in the world could anyone with any common sense at all make such a ridiculous assumption about MSFT? No one wants it. No one cares. Nokia is in serious trouble based on this spectacularly dumb move.
post #105 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

It might be a good idea to explain why otherwise you have very little credibility. You must give valid reasons.

I'd like to see the original article follow your rule.
post #106 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

This prediction isnt as crazy as people think, though I doubt Symbian will be that low. The IDC basically exchanged Symbian for WP7 on Nokia devices while still siphoning off a good deal of the Nokias sales to other vendors OSes.

I think its far too early to tell what 2015 will be like, but this isnt even close to being improbable. WP7 is a good modern mobile OS. Its still missing some key features, but these are features that iPhone OS and Android didnt have when they first emerged and slated features that Android still doesnt have ready. Because of this I dont think we will be able to tell what WP7 can do for Nokia or the competition until we get some more evidence, which should be available this year.

What nonsense - you are missing one very important point. PEOPLE DON'T WANT MSFT ON THEIR PHONES! Consumers have already made this quite clear. They are tired of all the crap from MSFT that they have put up with over the years and there is absolutely NO compelling reason to do so when they have much better choices available to them in iOS and Android.MSFT is an old stoggy and extremely flawed company. Big fail in smart phones. (Oxymoron - windows smart phones).
post #107 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

RGOSA predicts, in 2017 Microsoft will be the leading producer of Hamburgers overtaking McDonalds.

Ballmer keeps trying to get the Microsoft board of directors to go in that direction, but they have resisted him so far.
post #108 of 150
AT LAST! Someone else agrees with him that Windows on mobile devices will turn Apple into toast!

(DISCLOSURE: Ballmer is the megalomaniac who forecast Zune would bury iPod... you have been warned!)

I've decided to become an analyst. My forecast is IDC will become the top script writer for Comedy Central by 2015
post #109 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post

What nonsense - you are missing one very important point. PEOPLE DON'T WANT MSFT ON THEIR PHONES! Consumers have already made this quite clear. They are tired of all the crap from MSFT that they have put up with over the years and there is absolutely NO compelling reason to do so when they have much better choices available to them in iOS and Android.MSFT is an old stoggy and extremely flawed company. Big fail in smart phones. (Oxymoron - windows smart phones).

Ive had the pleasure of using iOS, Android and WP7. If I couldnt have an iPhone Id get an WP7-based device. Its good and the flaws it does have are apparently being addressed right now with the promised OTA updates. Well have to see how much theyve addressed them and whats still missing those reports should be filtering in this week and next but its not a bad start for a new, modern OS. Certainly better than Android did out of the gate.

You also need to look at WM6 since the iPhone came on the scene. You dont hear much of anything about WM devices yet it wasnt until the second half of 2010 that they finally went below 10% marketshare. Thats 1 in 10 devices stopped being bases on Windows old and crusty mobile OS even with all the competition and knowledge that they were focusing on WP7 as their successor. They didnt have a huge marketshare in 2007 as it was.

So tell me why, if they still had a 10%+ marketshare with WM^ when the iPhone 4 as released can they not increase their marketshare with a new OS that does something weve never seen MS do (actually think of the box) and a partnership with Nokia who does know how to make mobile HW. Counting out MS simply because you dont like them is not objective.
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post #110 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevetim View Post

Ha Ha ... I like that.

LOL, me too. You feed me the straight lines and I will knock it out of the funny park.
post #111 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

This must be a joke!



I will give you one main reason.. No one is buying Windows phones now.



MS can license their Windows Phone OS to as many as they want. Their market share will go no where if no one is buying them. Right now, no one is buying WP7 phones.

That is not completely true. We have 3 clients so far having WP7 devices (not exclusively, though) and here in NZ, Vodafone is offering only one WP7 model - the most basic HTC 7 Trophy; in addition, I haven't even seen a single WP7 commercial on NZ TV.

No personal users that I know so far, but it makes sense considering what I said before (lack of choice and marketing).

I think you are underestimating power of MS in the business/corporate fields. MS has all it takes to make same sort of integration for business users that Apple did for home users. Exchange, Office, Sharepoint, CRM. All hard to replace business tools. And WP7 can be (or will be able to) untegrated with all of them natively. Exchange already has bunch of WP7 features (like remote wipe) built in it's current form.

I don't have much fear for WP7 business existence, but comes to personal users... not so bright. Nokia might do wonders here. It is amazing how inert people are (in general) - I still know huge number of people who still think Nokia is the best thing that ever happened to mobile industry and refuse to purchase anything else. They are all candidates to grab Nokia WP7, regardless if it is competitive to iPhone or Androids available for the same or less money. Many people will be buying Nokia WP7 not because it has WP7, but because it is Nokia.
post #112 of 150
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Originally Posted by guch20 View Post

They need a Sprint iPhone for us idiots who are stuck with Sprint because we like the Unlimited plan. I don't want an Android phone (I have enough risk of viruses with my PC), and Windows Phone 7 is boring and dated already and has very few apps.

But I'm due to upgrade in July. If Apple doesn't do something quick, I'll be stuck adding either to Google's or Microsoft's numbers.

Buy it & jailbreak it - easy.
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post #113 of 150
I think WP7 is already a number two.
post #114 of 150
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Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

Opinons are like a*** - everyone's got one.

...and they all stink.
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post #115 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dmora_123 View Post

I think WP7 is already a number two.

True. They dropped a deuce.
post #116 of 150
How much did Microsoft pay IDC to say that?
post #117 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curmudgeon View Post

Personally, I think that 2007 stuff is nonsense. Windows Phone 7 is a modern OS. It's interface is superior to iOS in many ways. People seem to be freaking out about the lack of cut-and-paste and multitasking. Two things I'd personally like to disable on my iOS devices. I'm constantly selecting content without meaning to. I go to swipe the page down and end up with a huge swatch of blue selected data. Annoying. And it irks me to no end that when I close an app it doesn't actually close the app. That I have to manually visit the task manager just to close a freaking app. Very poor design. Every app should be rewritten to have a big "close" button that can be used to actually close the application. And why does Apple waste so much of the screen with their task manager? Why just a ribbon of icons at the bottom 10% of the screen? HP's webOS at least as a nice looking task manager (card interface). It looks like Windows Phone is going to steal it. Both beat the hell out of Apple's implementation.

I guess I'm still stunned by people that live by extremes. Something is either great or crap. There's no in between.

When you make a statement that "it is superior" can you follow up with an example.
If not, you are simply lying, if you did have the courage to list them, you would have it picked to the bones by us Apple lovers. Either way you lose. Best not to post.
Yes you ranted on the so called disadvantages on iOS, but these mainly reflect the poor way you are using the handset.
By stating the negatives are you referring that wp7, or what ever the fuck its called, has none of these ?
post #118 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Counting out MS simply because you dont like them is not objective.

Since when is anyone on this forum (save a few, and especially you) being objective?

You have no idea (or maybe you do) how postured these guys get when you're not here to mediate and temper the thread.
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post #119 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post

Those numbers aren't really that illogical. Third party operating systems like Android and WP7 require manufacturer support to be successful. The more phone manufacturers they can get to commit to the OS, the better. They live and die by manufacturer support. Microsoft made a big score with Nokia, and it's not that unrealistic that WP7 could take Symbians place in the market. Most people weren't buying Nokia phones for the OS, they were buying it for the hardware and/or price. If Nokia owners wanted an iPhone or Android device, they've probably already jumped ship. The reasons for buying a Nokia phone won't change, but Nokia phones will come with WP7, so WP7 market share should rise as a result.

This guess is perfectly logical, but that doesn't mean it's right. There are other potential factors, like Apple expanding its lineup beyond one phone and a resurgence of WebOS under HP, but it is a reasonable guess.

I don't know why you guys want WP7 to fail so badly anyway. A successful WP7 platform divides manufacturers between Android and WP7 limiting the market potential of both operating systems, ensuring a competitive OS market and good app support for all operating systems, including iOS. When presented with the option of Android at 65% or Android at 45% and WP7 at 20%, I'd take the latter without question. Although market share is an over used metric in the first place since not everyone is playing the same game (Apple and RIM sell phones, Microsoft sells an OS and Google sells ads and distributes a free OS).

Because i hate microshit with every fibre of my body. I despise them and cannot wait to see them go bankrupt. I cannot wait to have that ugly disgusting smirk wiped from ballmer's ugly fat mug.
They have made fun of Apple, cheated and back stabbed them, plus have to put up with all the shit from windoze loving fannies.
Having to use their garbage over the years, the pain and punishment.
When they are wiped into the dust, I will walk past and spit on it. Now do you understand.
post #120 of 150
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikieV View Post

^ This!

How can Nokia follow its past practice of cranking-out a plethora of models, when any of them with WP7 will -have- to look just like a clone of any other WP7 phone currently on the market?

The only way they can differentiate is by either bringing-out a minimum-spec WP7 phone at a great price, or going up-scale in features and hope their engineering reputation can attract people willing to pay more for a quality product.

We don't really know if Nokia will do generic WP7. There were some rumors that Nokia will have more freedom in implementing WP7 - or that, actually, MS people will work together with Nokia developing WP7 phones. It is my understanding that MS will

Being the first major brand to exclusively adopt WP7, I can see Microsoft giving them some VIP treatment.
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