Originally Posted by Bilbo63
I do feel that Android is going to get it's share and be competitive for Apple. Given that it's on a ton of different handsets from a ton of different vendors will give it market share. The thing is, it will be a situation where you have a lot of companies, investing a lot to make a little. Overall market share may be impressive, but it will be so diluted no one will be getting rich.
Like you said, it'll get a "market share" that people can quote in propaganda, but what does that add up to? Of course, most of us are immune to the Fandroids' claims that Android is an "open" platformbut actually Android isn't even "a" closed platform; it's dozens
closed platforms. The only one making money is Google, from delivering eyeballs to the spamsters. Even at that, I think Android has pretty much peaked even in the phone space.
Trying to transfer the (relative) success of Android in the phone market to the tablet market is just silly, though. As a thought experiment, think of the smartphone market when Android came out as the computer market without Windows. Suppose all you could get were Macs and a few bargain-basement toys with proprietary OSs. Then Linux comes along. All of a sudden manufacturers had an OS they could put on their computers that was "good enough" and could sell them a lot cheaper than Macs. There would be a huge number of people buying them. Maybe 1% of them would be tech geeks with some kind of ideological commitment to "open" OSs, and who don't mind basically writing their own OS on the fly to get anything done, but most would simply want a computer and to pay less than they had to pay for a Mac.
Now transfer this to the tablet market. The iPad is already there, but instead of being premium-priced, it's the cheapest
! Would a "free" alternative that requires a much steeper learning curve and can't even deliver lower prices
get much of a foothold? I don't think so. There may eventually be a few really shoddy Android tablets that can beat the iPad (or the iPad from two years before) on price, but they're going to be so obviously inferior that I think they'll be a hard sell. They'll be left with that hard core 1% of tech geeks, the Open Source ideologues, and the knee-jerk Apple-haters. How much "market share" does that add up to? I don't know, but what I do know is they won't be making anybody any money. Except Google and the spamsters, of course.