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Microsoft exec says tablets like Apple's iPad may be just a fad - Page 5

post #161 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by ameldrum1 View Post

wow. you should all take a step back and listen to yourselves.

a guy who works for the baddies posits an alternative future to the one where you all lovingly carry your iPads around for all eternity and he is "mentally handicapped"?

to be honest, his view seems a little more considered than your collective one.

in essence what I'm hearing from all of you is "no, the future will be just like it is now. I'll have an iPad. It rocks because Steve says so, and makes me feel really 'post-PC'."

if history teaches us anything though, it is that the future WON'T be like today. It will be different. Likely in ways that few of us can imagine.

Clearly tablets will play a role in this for a while. Then they will be superceded. Just like every other piece of technology in human history.

The way you all collectively jump down the throat of this guy is pathetically misguided.

If Steve were to come on stage and say we see the iPad as a stopgap until flexible screen tech, or hologram tech (or whatever) reaches the point where we can move to the next form factor, what would your reaction be?

Well duh. Of course the iPad is not the pinnacle of technological progress for the 21st century. I fully expect displacement of tablets as new tech that we've not even imagined becomes possible. Just as the PC displaced the mainframe, and the laptop has largely displaced the desktop.

But this claim of calling the iPad and clones a "fad" is not the same as saying "eventually tablets will become obsolete" - you're being completely disingenuous in conflating them.
post #162 of 196
Personally, I find it really frustrating (as a geek) to hear one of the head leader guys for a top technology company say something like this.

I guess this means we won't be seeing any competition from MS in the tablet market. Oh well, there's still a healthy amount of competition going on and we'll see plenty of cool advancements.

Stupid Microsoft.
post #163 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by briavael View Post

Well duh. Of course the iPad is not the pinnacle of technological progress for the 21st century. I fully expect displacement of tablets as new tech that we've not even imagined becomes possible. Just as the PC displaced the mainframe, and the laptop has largely displaced the desktop.

But this claim of calling the iPad and clones a "fad" is not the same as saying "eventually tablets will become obsolete" - you're being completely disingenuous in conflating them.

Well that's the point isn't it!

Nobody said tablets were a "fad". I know that's in the title of the article, but no one actually said it.

Mundie said...
I don't know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not.

I think there's an important distinction and frankly one we didnt jump on at Microsoft fast enough between mobile and portable.

Mobile is something that you want to use while you're moving, and portable is something that you move and then use.

These are going to bump into one another a little bit and so today you can see tablets and pads and other things that are starting to live in the space in between. Personally I dont know whether that space will be a persistent one or not.
He said the smartphone "as it emerges more will become your most personal computer" and went on to talk about smartphone technology he had seen in the labs where a user looks at the phone, "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV".
post #164 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by chronster View Post

I guess this means we won't be seeing any competition from MS in the tablet market.

They are activley building a custom tablet shell into Windows 8 which, I'm guessing, will run on the lightweight ARM version of Windows 8.
post #165 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post


He said the smartphone "as it emerges more will become your most personal computer" and went on to talk about smartphone technology he had seen in the labs where a user looks at the phone, "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV".

No, thank you. I prefer to keep my vision. And while we've gotten used to the vision of people seemingly talking to themselves and wearing devices that make them look like they're part of the Borg Collective, will future decades bring us a population frantically waving body parts around in order to interact with their devices? Virtual vertical screens (even physical vertical screens) don't work for touch interaction: try keeping your arm up in the air for five minutes - it's very annoying. Steve has alluded to the fact that he understands this. I don't think the competition does - I think they're going to attempt to go there.

Many have posted that there have been major transitions away from classic products in the PC industry, but I would make the case that there's actually been little transition: while there may be more use of laptops as opposed to desktop machines, in most business environments, people still sit at desks to use their computers and those computers have full-size keyboards and screens. All the enhancements in screen size, memory and storage have been incremental. In fact, one could make the case that with the use of laptops over desktops/towers, screen size/resolution has actually decreased over the last few years.

One technology does not replace another. They co-exist at least for a while. TV did not replace radio, although it affected the business model and as a result of that, it affected the nature of the product. Cable TV did not replace broadcast TV, although it affected the business model, etc. Online TV will not completely replace Cable TV, etc.

So we're going to have smartphones, Pads, laptops and desktops for quite some time. They each have different uses. I would not want to be typing Word documents on my phone or even a Pad. Even typing this response would be much slower on a Pad.

When Apple finally implements full wireless sync, that will actually help the older form factors survive, not hasten their demise.

As for Apple, I believe that the iPhone and iPads are the most successful consumer electronics launches of all time. The sales numbers are so incredible, it makes previous consumer launches seem trivial in comparison. The previous "winner" was DVD players, which took 21 months to achieve 1 million units (According to Greystone Communications, the Yankee Group). MP3 players took 38 months. The VCR took 58 months. Cable TV took 144 months. What did it take Apple at least from the 2nd iteration of the iPhone? 2- 3 days? Apple took the phone market, which was primarily based (outside of the Crackberry) on giving subsidized phones away for free or close to it and turned it into a market where the masses were willing to pay $200 of the cost (and generally pay a higher monthly bill) in return for great functionality. That is an incredible accomplishment. And finding that space between the phone and the laptop in a market that already had viable and less expensive ebook readers was also an incredible accomplishment. Apple has also had its best financial performance during the worst economic downturn since 1929. Imagine how they're going to do if the economy ever gets going again. And all this from a company that was perceived even by its supporters as "overpriced" and "niche". This is what is driving Microsoft, HP and Dell crazy. What they never understood is that while people bought their products, they only put up with them. They didn't love them. But people love their Apple products.

Some have posted that Apple doesn't give us their version of the future -- instead they just release products. That's true, but I think that Apple has some real surprises in store for us over the next decade. The combination of the North Carolina server farm and the new Apple campus (which is several times the size of the current one) tells me that Apple is planning to launch major new businesses that we can't even imagine as yet.
post #166 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

Well that's the point isn't it!

Nobody said tablets were a "fad". I know that's in the title of the article, but no one actually said it.

Mundie said...
I don't know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not.

I think there's an important distinction and frankly one we didnt jump on at Microsoft fast enough between mobile and portable.

Mobile is something that you want to use while you're moving, and portable is something that you move and then use.

These are going to bump into one another a little bit and so today you can see tablets and pads and other things that are starting to live in the space in between. Personally I dont know whether that space will be a persistent one or not.
He said the smartphone "as it emerges more will become your most personal computer" and went on to talk about smartphone technology he had seen in the labs where a user looks at the phone, "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV".

Granted Mundie chose his words carefully. I don't want to split hairs as to whether "I don't know whether that space will be persistent" means "fad"or something else. My interpretation is that the article title is a fair summary of his comments, even in light of the longer quote you posted.

But there seem to be a lot of voices questioning the sustainability of the tablet market in the past few days from Apple's competitors and PC analysts. Regardless of what MS is cooking in their labs, those ideas aren't coming to market in the near term to compete with tablets. So what's the point of his commentary other than to provide cover for the flat-footed MS partners that can't compete with the iPad today?
post #167 of 196
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...3041200216.htm

Hahaha, I guess Android's "Open" is a fad too.
post #168 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by oo63 View Post

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...3041200216.htm

Hahaha, I guess Android's "Open" is a fad too.

Anarchy always leads to a dictatorship. Android 3.1 will be known as Francisco Franco.
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post #169 of 196
So then I would expect Android fans to pirouette neatly from "Open rules!" to "Thank-you Google, for reigning in those unruly carriers/handset manufacturers who were ruining your glorious works!"

And it's different from Apple because Apple is bad and Google is good and shut-up.
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post #170 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Applecation View Post

Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer later fired back with a different spin on Jobs' analogy: "There may be a reason they call them Mack Trucks," Ballmer said, referring to Apple's Mac line of computers. "But Windows machines are not going to be trucks."

--- Snappy come-back of the year

Agreed.
post #171 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by briavael View Post

Granted Mundie chose his words carefully. I don't want to split hairs as to whether "I don't know whether that space will be persistent" means "fad"or something else. My interpretation is that the article title is a fair summary of his comments, even in light of the longer quote you posted.

But there seem to be a lot of voices questioning the sustainability of the tablet market in the past few days from Apple's competitors and PC analysts. Regardless of what MS is cooking in their labs, those ideas aren't coming to market in the near term to compete with tablets. So what's the point of his commentary other than to provide cover for the flat-footed MS partners that can't compete with the iPad today?

Precisely. In the absence of any product able to compete with Apple, just share around a little FUD...
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post #172 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

I'm sure I'm missing something obvious, but what is with the "uncomfortable" part of the post-PC era?

Giving up your "Mac Pro, MacBook Pro, iMac, couple of Windows machines, and a boat load of Unix servers"
Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
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post #173 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Last year, Jobs compared the PC market to the U.S. automobile industry, noting that most vehicles in America at first were trucks, because they were driven by farmers. But as cars became more popular with the growth of cities, and features like power steering and automatic transmission were added, the truck came to represent a smaller number of vehicles on the road. "PCs are going to be like trucks," he said.

Ford F-Series Truck (1948-present) America's bestselling vehicle for 28 consecutive years; 33,900,000 in 12 generations to May 2010 (source = Wikipedia).

I guess the PC/Truck business isn't a bad place to be
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post #174 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post

Ford F-Series Truck (1948-present) America's bestselling vehicle for 28 consecutive years; 33,900,000 in 12 generations to May 2010 (source = Wikipedia).

I guess the PC/Truck business isn't a bad place to be

he didn't say the PC/Truck would go away. Growth projections for PCs continue to be revised down while growth projections for the iPad continue to be revised up. It'll take a few years of that trend before tablets actually outsell PCs.
post #175 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post

I guess the PC/Truck business isn't a bad place to be

Not in this day and age where there's plenty of people with more money than brains buying SUVs (which are really little more than a $23,000 truck enclosed and with a $40,000 price tag).
post #176 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I find it hard to believe that if MS isn't ready to compete on tablets that they'll find a way to completely reinvent computer interaction. What problem does this solve? I need to write an email, so I do what? Wave my arms, toggle a remote and shout across the room?

You cannot wave arms for more than a hour. It works for games as they don't last more than a hour, using the interface should not cause fatigue.
post #177 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by nofear1az View Post

ok, I read all the stories but don't post much and I just have to say this...

Microsoft is only saying this because they don't have a viable competing product. Their jealous of Apples success. They tried tablets for years with little success and Apple comes in here and pulls the rug from underneath them.

They had a viable product. The HP Slate 500!!
post #178 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... Mundie said there is a question as to whether tablets like Apple's iPad will "remain with us or not."

"Today you can see tablets and pads and other things that are starting to live in the space in between (a PC and a smartphone)," Mundie said. "Personally, I don't know whether that space will be a persistent one or not."

While he believes most computing will be done on phones in the future, Mundie believes the successor to the traditional desktop PC is "the room." He envisions a future where a person's at-home computer won't be a box on a desk, but something that users can interact with wherever they are in a room..."


If this has already been pointed out somewhere in the 170+ threads that exist for this article, apologies but, here it is again. Mr. Mundie is spot-on with his view. Don't get me wrong - I love Apple and their products. But his vision makes perfect sense as the natural evolutionary track of the technology. Where are 8-tracks today? The same place the iPad or any other 'smart-device' (tablet or phone) will be as technology matures. Maybe he's using that as an excuse for their lackluster results in the tablet market, but you can't deny the success of the Kinect, and if they are going to remain viable in the future, that's where they have to chart their course.
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post #179 of 196
Whistling in the dark past the graveyard...despite Apple's heavy-handed control, NO ONE in the software or hardware industry has perfected FUD as well as Microsoft. If they did not have a viable product in a category, all others did not exist, were marginal/futile, or "Microsoft's soon to be released XXX has a thousand more features" (where "soon" was anytime in the next two years).

So, of course, tablets are a passing fad because M$haft has no clue how to build a workable subset of Windows that is light, nimble, and easy to use as Android, much less IOS. When quantum physics is finally conquered so they can get an i7 processor with 8gb ram, 500gb SSD and battery that will run for 10 hours, all in an iPad 2 size shell (with a UI as simple and smooth as IOS), then tablets will be a viable market for M$haft. Until then, they are a fad (so sayeth baldy).
post #180 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by briavael View Post

I don't want to split hairs as to whether "I don't know whether that space will be persistent" means "fad"or something else. My interpretation is that the article title is a fair summary of his comments, even in light of the longer quote you posted.

It's not really splitting hairs. He said one thing, he didn't say the other.

I'm not sure how you interpret someone saying that they "don't know" if tablets will be around forever and that they may eventually be replaced by other display technology with someone saying the iPad is just a short-lived fashion.

You even said yourself calling the iPad and clones a "fad" is not the same as saying "eventually tablets will become obsolete".

Mundie even goes as far as specifically mentioning future technology that could possibly, one day, replace the current tablet.

As in, the only thing that can potentially replace the tablet is a future technology, not current technology.

This is totally different to a fad which is a short lived fashion trend before returning to the status quo.
post #181 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by dksmidtx View Post

an i7 processor

IMO the fact Microsoft are working with Qualcomm, Texas Instruments and NVidia on an ARM version of Windows 8 means it's fairly likely that there will be a version of Windows 8 that runs on ARM... that's just my opinion of course...

Quote:
Originally Posted by dksmidtx View Post

So, of course, tablets are a passing fad

IMO the ARM Windows 8, the dual UI (touch/desktop) and the fact that Mundie didn't say tablets were a fad point to Microsoft actually believing that tablets aren't a fad.

Again, just my opinion...
post #182 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

It's not really splitting hairs. He said one thing, he didn't say the other.

I'm not sure how you interpret someone saying that they "don't know" if tablets will be around forever and that they may eventually be replaced by other display technology with someone saying the iPad is just a short-lived fashion.

You even said yourself calling the iPad and clones a "fad" is not the same as saying "eventually tablets will become obsolete".

Mundie even goes as far as specifically mentioning future technology that could possibly, one day, replace the current tablet.

As in, the only thing that can potentially replace the tablet is a future technology, not current technology.

This is totally different to a fad which is a short lived fashion trend before returning to the status quo.

Again, pretending like this is just some lab guy sharing his thoughts about the future of technology is utterly disingenuous. He didn't talk about how the Xbox will go away, replaced by cloud connected contact lenses and implants. He didn't talk about how Windows will go away, replaced by distributed modules interacting via neural nets. He didn't talk about how huge, monolithic software companies like Microsoft will be replaced by agile startups.

He talked about tablets. Of all the technologies that he might have cast on the inevitable dustheap of history (and it's a given that each and every technology will change or be replaced, it's nothing unique to tablets) he picked the one that is very obviously the technology that MS has fumbled, and the one that has the most potential to drive MS towards irrelevancy.

It's like chatting about how your enemy will die someday and someone you like will probably take their place. That's not a discussion about human mortality, it's a motivated daydream.
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post #183 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Again, pretending like this is just some lab guy sharing his thoughts about the future of technology is utterly disingenuous.

I'm just talking about what the guy actually did or didn't say.

You can feel free to theorise about his motivation all you want, although I think the only way you will ever know the truth is by actually asking him.
post #184 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Again, pretending like this is just some lab guy sharing his thoughts about the future of technology is utterly disingenuous. He didn't talk about how the Xbox will go away, replaced by cloud connected contact lenses and implants. He didn't talk about how Windows will go away, replaced by distributed modules interacting via neural nets. He didn't talk about how huge, monolithic software companies like Microsoft will be replaced by agile startups.

He talked about tablets. Of all the technologies that he might have cast on the inevitable dustheap of history (and it's a given that each and every technology will change or be replaced, it's nothing unique to tablets) he picked the one that is very obviously the technology that MS has fumbled, and the one that has the most potential to drive MS towards irrelevancy.

It's like chatting about how your enemy will die someday and someone you like will probably take their place. That's not a discussion about human mortality, it's a motivated daydream.

Yes, I believe that you have the tenor correct.
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post #185 of 196
Apparently Google isn't too impressed with Microsoft's Kinect driven future.
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post #186 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Apparently Google isn't too impressed with Microsoft's Kinect driven future.

I saw that.

Antitrust cases, tightening the grip on supposedly open projects, blocking competitors from accessing YouTube API's, attempting to belittle competitors instead of focusing on their own products... 2011 may very well be the year that Google publicly drops that "don't be evil" tag.
post #187 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

They are activley building a custom tablet shell into Windows 8 which, I'm guessing, will run on the lightweight ARM version of Windows 8.

Can't wait for it....




















.... to fail miserably
post #188 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Can't wait for it to fail miserably

Why? What's the benefit to you in Microsoft releasing a crap tablet?
post #189 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

Why? What's the benefit to you in Microsoft releasing a crap tablet?

There's no benefit. I just don't see it succeeding. I'd rather it fail quickly so another possible iPad alternative can come to the fore. Let Microsoft dump millions down the drain. Just do it fast.
post #190 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

There's no benefit. I just don't see it succeeding. I'd rather it fail quickly so another possible iPad alternative can come to the fore. Let Microsoft dump millions down the drain. Just do it fast.

If that's what you want you're going to be better served by Microsoft succeeding than failing.

There are going to be plenty of iPad competitors over the next few years, but Microsoft are the only company at the moment that have the range of products and integrated services to create the potential for a real alternative to the iPad.

In any case I'm not quite so sure about Microsoft failing quickly. It looks like the Microsoft tablet is half of the dual UI in Windows 8... and Windows 8 is a Microsoft business product which falls under the phenoninomally long product support agreement (maybe 10 years or so).

So even if it is a total train wreak, you're going to be seeing it around for another ten years.
post #191 of 196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

If that's what you want you're going to be better served by Microsoft succeeding than failing.

There are going to be plenty of iPad competitors over the next few years, but Microsoft are the only company at the moment that have the range of products and integrated services to create the potential for a real alternative to the iPad.

In any case I'm not quite so sure about Microsoft failing quickly. It looks like the Microsoft tablet is half of the dual UI in Windows 8... and Windows 8 is a Microsoft business product which falls under the phenoninomally long product support agreement (maybe 10 years or so).

So even if it is a total train wreak, you're going to be seeing it around for another ten years.

*Sigh* I'm just so sick of Windows though... I want to completely get rid of it but XBOX360 and especially PS3 graphics for games is really poor nowadays compared to PC.

Windows on a tablet, in whatever form, I'd prefer Android. It's just not in their DNA for Microsoft to even understand what people want from a tablet... But you could be right, they'll just copy-and-paste from here and there, cobble something together, make it sync smoothly with desktop Windows, market the hell out of it and another decade of living with Windows on the desktop AND now the tablet.
post #192 of 196
Re: My assertion that machine controls are "cheap"

Quote:
Originally Posted by mknopp View Post

I agreed with pretty much everything that you said. However, the biggest error in your post was the assertion that machine controls (and I assume you are talking PLC or PAC here) are on the cheaper end of the spectrum. The machine controls for a small and simple machine will run you about the cost of a mid-range iMac, a medium sized machine will run you about the same as a tricked out Mac Pro, and a large machine can easily run you more than a server setup for a small company.

Good point - even while I was writing it, I was a bit troubled on how to classify machine controls. I do agree that per unit, COTS machine controls can be very expensive! This is due to the very specialized nature and tiny production runs.

However, the non-recurring development costs, and component costs are generally pretty low. Usually, these are not pushing the limits of technology, and the hardware and software are not very complex (next to a PC or smart phone).

There is a significant amount of hobbyist involvement in home automation, robotics, kinetic art, and the like, and most of these people don't have massive budgets. An Arduino is cheap ($30!), and can do simple machine-control jobs.

I myself built a one-off controller that was used by a company to make parts in production. A friend employed there designed the machine itself. I charged $500 and made money (at a pretty poor hourly rate, but I did it more for the challenge and experience). There is no way I would be able to design a PC or phone!
post #193 of 196
OK, so last year I read an article about Steve Ballmer commenting about the iPad, saying they're overpriced, they don't have a keyboard, and for heaven's sake, you cannot even print from them....He said that when the Windows tablet comes out, your going to be able to print from it, by golly! I heard the pronouncements about the iPad being suitable for content consumption but not not content origination, and how the iPad is unsuited for use in enterprise environments, etc. I think this demonstrates how some people have gotten stuck in this 'legacy mindset' about computing and computers: plugging in cables and physically connecting peripherals and such. As for the iPad being embraced by the business community: that horse is already out of the barn: I work in an upscale hotel and you would not believe how many business people, doctors, science-related professionals,and salespeople I see using iPads. I read somewhere last week that 22% of doctors are using iPads now...I think we're moving a little beyond the fad stage, if we're using that term in it's most trivial sense, anyway.
Microsoft had a whole team working on tablet computing over ten years ago. Bill Gates said that tablets are the future of computing.....but Microsoft Office software team started haggling with the tablet dev. team about how Office would work on a tablet and eventually the project was shelved. They had a good idea, they just couldn't get it to the marketplace.
post #194 of 196
awsome, katie does a DED and makes a story out of nothin, then people spend pages upon pages arguing over nothing.
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post #195 of 196
Ballmer: "But Windows machines are not going to be trucks."

Oh my, why do they let this guy speak in public. No, maybe they're not trucks, maybe they're tractors.

Compared to Jobs, Ballmer and most other industry leaders are monkeys. Jobs is brilliant, the 1983 tape re-confirms it, and he outshines them all.

When Ballmer sits there with his 10 lbs, 14 USB ports, DTS surround projector home entertainment station, torpedo loaded nuclear charged Apple-killer, ultra "super-slate" with it's blue screen calling for support his grandma will sit next to him with her iPad just browsing the web, reading mails, video chatting with her grandchildren while listening to music.
post #196 of 196
Originally Posted by Meniac View Post
Compared to Jobs, Ballmer and most other industry leaders are monkeys.

 

Well, that is why they call him Monkey Boy.

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