Microsoft exec says tablets like Apple's iPad may be just a fad - Page 3

You had me going until you said Zune. Oh, and earnings are at least a little important to non-shareholders, because companies which don't have earnings don't continue to exist indefinitely.

They have been earning more quarter and doing better than most companies. Apple has bested them in revenue, gross and net profits and are still rising, but that doesnt mean MS isnt still a powerful company with a lot of earning potential simply because they are no longer the number one earner.

On top of that, MS has had wild success wild with the Kinect on a 5 year old console and have done a great job rethinking what an OS is with WP7, though its still unclear if it will be a market success.

I understand that this site has a lot of pro-Apple and anti-MS sentiments but if we try to remove ourselves from our emotions, only looking at MS financials compared to other tech companies, they are not someone we should write off anytime soon.

Read the actual interview. He talks a about mobile phone that project a HDTV sized screen onto your retina.

No doubt they will do a tablet, but this guy sounds like he is talking about a 15-20 year timeframes.

The only thing that's really happening on the list is Windows and Office, same as it ever was.

WP7 looks promising but it may be too little too late. And just because it has a slightly eccentric UI doesn't make it terribly innovative or awesome-- it's just the minimum MS had to do to not be completely counted out of the mobile OS market.

Xbox is what it is, Zune is gone, Kin is gone, Kinect is an add-on for Xbox.

Where, in that list, are the products that shape our future? That challenge the status quo? That actually excite? I guess if you're an Xbox owner the Kinect is cool, but it's hardly the next big thing. Outside of that, it's Windows and Office forever.

Have you ever used Zune?

I was fortunate enough to try it when I was on holiday in the USA (they haven't released it in other markets, which may account for lower sales). Very well made player, with a very nice UI.

The Zune software that it connects to on Windows is also miles ahead of iTunes. Much better interface and far, far more responsive.

Yeah? So where is it? MS is the giant of computer operating systems. They had every incumbents advantage imaginable for digital music. Just by making something reasonable that worked on every PC they could have totally dominated. But they did nothing of note until Apple had already more or less locked up the market. They've done it again with phones, and they appear to be determined to do it with tablets.

There's more to a product than some nice ideas and decent hardware. You have to stick to a plan, make everything work together, and give people a reason to want your stuff. MS is capable of good work, but they have no consistent vision for why-- or rather, the wrong why, which is "to sell more Windows and Office licenses."

What I see is Androids fractured, undefined success has given MS a way back into the smartphone game. This is a play Apple has excelled at on many occasion. Will MS pull it off or revert to their old way? Maybe, but I think teaming with Nokia was a great move. A bad move would have been to try to be equal to all and have less OS requirements for the HW (like Android does) or to get someone else to build your HW and then put your name it (the way MS did with Creative on the Zune).

Plus, the OS changes arent just a new UI. They have started with the ground up with this. The only difference between MS and Apple on this front is that Apple leveraged Mac OS, though that might be happening with Windows 8 which in itself could be a huge blistering blender of a blunder.

Yeah, it could be a fad... Or it could be their worst nightmare.

Denial is not a strategy.

Right, I didn't mean the UI wasn't new or innovative for MS, rather that I think we've reached the point were a spiffy UI may not be enough in the mobile market. We need to be looking at allover scope of vision, what a given vendor's grasp of what "mobile" really means over the next ten years.

My concern is that MS isn't getting that-- that they're still being reactive to what Apple did a year or two ago. A decent phone OS is a start, and certainly it's to their credit that they came up with something strikingly different. But are internal rivalries going to keep that OS on phones only? That would be a disaster, and completely misses the point of the mobile revolution.

It makes them seem positively dull-witted. It's like they looked around after a long slumber and said "Oh. Phones? People want phones? OK, we'll get on that." And by the time they got there, they looked around again and said "Oh, wait, tablets? We already do that, right? With Windows? But more touch-y? OK, we'll get on that." And instead of ever skating to where the puck will be, they say "We think in the future hockey will be replaced by hover-car races."

So when the Zune went away, didn't everybody lose all that music they thought they "bought", but only "subscribed" to? Or am I misunderstanding the business model? It would be the second time MS screwed everybody over like that (Plays4Sure), so I bet I'm not. I'd be mad as hell, but somehow I'm sure it's all Apple's fault.

What about if your phone projected a HDTV sized image onto your retina? What if it communicated with an LED contact lens that presented you with an image overlay or potentially your entire field of vision?

This isn't science fiction, this is technology that we will be using in 10-20 years.

In any case, you get my point. When you ask the research guy a question you're going to get some odd answers.

Ummm, the top 2 selling vehicles in the US are Ford's F-150 and the Chevrolet Silverado, by a HUGE margin. number 3 is the Toyota Camry but it could double it's sales and still be 3rd. Just sayin'\

And which of these products truly came from MS?

Windows came from MacOS and Windows 7 was largely driven by features from OSX
Office got its origins from Word Perfect and Lotus 123
Windows Phone would never have existed without inspiration from the iPhone
Xbox is another game console in a market that had Nintendo, Playstation, etc.
Kinect is the closest to an inspired product but came to being because of Wii
Zune? Really?

This was also (sort of) part of the original NeXT vision 25 years ago. The idea behind the 256MB magneto-optical disk was that you carried the disk with you to any location where a NeXT Cube was, pop it in, boot it and have your own environment. There were many reasons this did not work out, two of those being the price of those discs and the lack of speed on those discs.

Kinect is cool but you really shouldn't dismiss it as a complement to other computing approaches.

In any event these execs are killing their credibility here. I'm seeing iPads and iPhones adopted in east cost organizations that would have never considered Apple products in the past. This is very very impressive and is as much a validation of Apples approach as it is a sign of disappointment with MicroSoft. It is also a sign in my mind that MS recognizes that coming up with a similar API to what Apple has in iOS is a large undertaking that they can't respond to in a few months.

In a nut shelf they don't have a solution so they can only try to defuse Apples success.

I'm using my iPad right now. It appears that MS, HP and Dell WERE fads.

I think the promise of the ubiquitously connected future is that you don't have to do or carry anything. Accessing data, services and computational power would be no more taxing than flipping on a light, if that.

The downside, of course, is that various corporate and governmental interests are very interested in your whereabouts and doings, and becoming a creature of the data-sphere makes you easy prey. I don't really know how that problem is resolved, although it appears that one way is to raise a generation that doesn't think it's a problem at all and happily and promiscuously makes all of their private information readily available.

You misunderstand that Zune went away.

The Zune device hit an end of life and Microsoft haven't announced they are making another. The Zune Marketplace didn't go anywhere.

It's basically the same as if Apple decided to not release a new iPod Touch. It wouldnt affect the ITunes store, existing iPod Touch owners or anyone using their iPhone or iPad to purchase music.

If the actual Zune Marketplace went away then Zune Pass users wouldn't be able to listen to the entire Zune catalog anymore, just the 10 "free" songs they received each month. Pretty much in the same way that if your cable operator went broke you wouldn't be able to watch TV anymore (except your cable operator doesn't let you pick 10 show each month to own).

I would love to hear the step by step process to which he draws his conclusion. Please enlighten us as to why you think this way instead of hitting us with a blanket statement.

Sure, the iPad appliance is a fad. But Fortran is forever!

Microsoft doesn't know whether to sh!t or go blind so they decided to do both.

You are misunderstanding the business model. And it did not go away: http://www.zune.net

They stopped making the Zune player hardware. The Zune software is used in WP7 and XBox 360 and PC.

The model is that you give them 12.50 a month (on a yearly subscription) and you get 10 songs every month that you can remove the DRM and keep forever and play on any number of devices. You can also buy any additional songs just like on iTunes.

And as you mention, for the songs you don't want to own forever and purchase, you can download and play them on your devices. No additional cost.

If you haven't tried it you should. Especially with wireless synching. Your device is always updated with the latest music, pod casts or whatever. No need to phisically connect it to iTunes all the time.

It actually isn't a bad strategy. At this point they are no where near ready to compete on Apple's terms with a tablet so why not try to use what they have to offer an alternative. I mean sure you can have that 'room' with a tablet as a control but does that have to be the only way. Could you also have it via a combo of voice, built in keypad controller and a remote like the Kinnect or your phone. Sure you could, if it is done that way. Sounds like Microsoft is thinking they will try.


Not exactly. You get 10 songs a month you can remove the DRM and keep forever. The rest is yours to 'borrow' for 12.50 a month. If you stop paying you lose that music. That's hardly 'no additional cost'

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I find it hard to believe that if MS isn't ready to compete on tablets that they'll find a way to completely reinvent computer interaction. What problem does this solve? I need to write an email, so I do what? Wave my arms, toggle a remote and shout across the room?

Yeah, no thanks. I've never downloaded anything from iTunes either. There's no way in hell I'd pay money for anything that was less than CD quality, or losslessly compressed from there. Apple (and everybody else) has jumped the gun on this "download only" model by decades (and by the plural, I don't mean just two.)

It could be a fad, or it could be a new phase of computing. I think we need to figure out how this form factor is being used before we start judging its viability. We don't know if large numbers of people are going to get tired of keyboard-less touchscreen devices or if they are going to embrace them over the long haul. The fact is, it's a form factor that has gone mainstream in just the past year and we are still in the process of figuring out how it fits into our lives. One thing I do know, Apple's approach of using a touchscreen mobile OS instead of Microsoft using a non-touchscreen desktop OS is more appropriate for a touchscreen device where applications (er, apps) are designed to be used with the touchscreen form factor instead of a keyboard and mouse.

microsoft strategy = oxymoron.

Microsoft is going to die soon if this is how their chief research and strategy officer thinks.

It used to be 95%. I'd say becoming irrelevant.

Remember Dell thinks it needs a mouse!

And it's going to happen very fast. LPs, 8 Tracks, CDs, .....

One day soon MS will wake up and find very few people use PCs anymore and Ballmer will be heard saying W**?

Another so called audiophile who has his head up his bum.

iTunes music IS CD quality. While not truly lossless (that would make it ridiculously huge downloads - roughly 20-30MB per song) it still retains the quality. In fact there have been a number of tests that have shown that while slightly different to the original CD audio file the iTunes songs are pretty close. Most people can't tell, it only seems to be the people who have had their ears surgically replaced with dog's ears that seem to be the ones who can pick it up.

iTunes aims for the consumers not the purists so Apple is way ahead of the game.

Apple has created a generation of tin-eared dolts, is what I think you meant to say.

But since quality audio equipment is now unobtainable, and people are paying serious money for "surround-sound audio centers" or whatever with 9% total harmonic distortion when .1% was entry-level 40 years ago, I guess it doesn't matter.

Oddly enough, While I don't really agree with MS, I also don't agree with most of the posters here either.

The major issue is that one type of machine doesn't necessarily replace another outright. The PC has been the dominant (not not the only) type of computer for many years. "Post-PC" doesn't mean that it is dead, just that it's glory days are over. It isn't going away, and probably will continue to be what most people think of when they hear "computer".

To make a point, here is a list of the types of computing devices that are out there today:

Workhorse:
- Supercomputer
- Server / Cloud
- Workstation ("PC")

Casual Use:
- Smart Phone
- Tablet
- Game Console

Special-Purpose
- Media Player (iPod, Roku, connected TV, etc)
- e-Reader
- Navigation
- Point-of-Sale Terminal
- Kiosk
- Calculator

Embedded
- Appliances
- Automotive
- Machine Controls

Note that these categories are complex, general purpose, and expensive at one end, and simple, specific, and cheap on the other. I also expect that the middle of the list is where the most growth will happen in the future.

Microsoft has absolutely dominated the Workhorse category, and with the exception of the Xbox, has struggled in all others. Without a doubt, they are interested in all these categories (See Zune, Media Center, Surface, Sync, Windows CE Embedded, and the little reported fact that MS does the engine control software for Formula 1 cars).

The problem is that Windows is a "Workhorse" OS, and is not well-suited to the simpler devices, yet at the top they are too focused on their "Windows Everywhere" strategy.

Apple has shown the world that a different OS is needed to fit a different device category. (To be fair, Microsoft did try this years ago with Windows CE; the problem was that it was a simplified desktop, not a new interface. The poor sales were just interpreted as meaning people don't want those devices.)

Translation: By the time we have a viable tablet strategy, the market will have moved on.

87% of what? If those pieces of crap being wheeled around hospitals count as part of that 87%, then big deal.

And Apple has 100b on MS in Market Cap. Just saying.


Margins = ? Market Cap = ?


Margins = ? Market Cap = ?


No one is really saying that they are irrelevant. But churning out plastic pieces of crap, with low margins, doesn't really make you a super-star. And honestly, any company that had Carly Fiorina running it ... ouch.

Not to mention the fact that the best selling vehicle is a truck... aside from a couple monthly data, it has been for years.

I don't think quoting sales numbers is a good way to say if something is a 'fad' or not. case in point, the netbook, which many of us (myself included) consider a 'fad' sold over 30 million units in 2009 IIRC.

It's funny, just yesterday I was reading an article on the input problem with tablets on AT. I definitely think this is a problem tablets have to solve if they want true mainstream adoption.

So, MS sees the future of the post-pc era as dominated by a technology that MS developed. I am truly shocked!!!