Originally Posted by nikon133
Android tablet will have/do have sort of slow start like Android phones did in their time, but there's not much doubt they will catch up shortly.
I think think the way this portion of the market will play out won't quite replicate any of the key markets below which Apple's entered first before.
1. The iPhone
breaking in with a new paradigm vs. the rest of the smart phone market.
2. The Mac
(and Apple in gen'l) - first mass production graphical UI/mouse based computer vs. MS/IBM and MS/Clones - a period when still fresh out of the garage Apple ]['s share was already under assault from the OS backed by the company then synonymous with "computer" (IBM) and when the great majority of computing sales by $$ were to business.
3 (a/b). The "mp3" player/media content
markets - where there were only other emergent players and no central web locus for any.
4. The Slate/Tab/Pad
Market - where cynicism had developed around the category and Apple's breaking in again with a fresh paradigm (if borrowed mostly from the iPhone) and form factor, and again with Google and an army of HW companies following on willy-nilly.
1. In the phone
case, Apple was limited to one carrier in the US for four years and to one or two everywhere else. Android's been able to be on as many as will sell phones from any of these HW companies. Signal problems and limited rate plans beyond their control have kept them tethered to limited sales possibilities (ATT, e.g., had no coverage in some states and atrocious coverage in some major metro areas - and that's just one carrier example in one country). And within those constraints, Apple's also eschewed other market segments - people who mostly or much prefer physical keyboards (about 15-25% I'd guess), those enticed into contracts by free or nearly free phones (10-20%??), and those who want cutesy, nichey phones designed for special demographics (young girls, e.g.). So given those factors, Android's rise isn't hard to understand.
2. In the PC
case - the description already made the case. The young whipper-snappers had their asses handed to 'em by the combo of Big Blue and the rapacious B. Gates (who later turned around and knifed IBM itself in the back). Not to mention Macs were more expensive (which under Jobs II and the resurrection they've actually turned into a nice plus for themselves finally).
3a. In the media player
case, Apple's fresh approach handed everybody's asses to them - first the companies (small and dedicated or large and dabbling) making the players, and then the purveyors of the content with the iTunes store. And ever since Apple's share of the first has remained above 70% (or more?) and of the second, they're the largest media content retailer on the planet. The player market remains theirs and the Touch is now a) a player, b) a very capable pocket gaming device and c) the small iPad Apple says it won't build (but already is).
3b. In the content sales
arena, Apple's still doing great guns, but don't count Amazon out now that people are going there for Apps and Amazon already had the second-best online music store and biggest bookstore in the world (and have the Kindle portfolio, and have bought Audible.com). And Google has ambitions. And "music lockers" are about to hit. And Androids are, by default, also media-player devices.
4. In the slate/tab/pad
case, Apple again has a year or more head start (again), with iPod-like market share.
And while Android already exists and can also scale its Phone OS and has its HW partners lined
up, in this case there are no critical partners
(cellcos) holding Apple back. Any iPad can be tethered to any tetherable phone or Mi-Fi signal from any cellco. Apple can compete across the board in terms of access to signal even if Android can have contracted/subsidized devices on maybe more carriers. (iPads could be subsidized too if Apple chooses, of course.)
Not to mentioned owning the best "ecosystem" and integration across multiple product lines
And while Google and MS are corporate monsters like IBM was, Apple's now a bigger monster
than any of 'em. Their garage days and lack of Q factor with developed markets are distant memories. And consumers are driving mobile computing more than businesses these days.
And while still a primo product, this time Apple's a price/value leader
. And got locks on the best supplies of parts
. And the best retail customer digital products service
organization in the world. And will find function-specific reasons to justify any smaller or larger form factors it decides to debut in this space.
But pads are going to be competing in the computer
space - with netbooks and notebooks as well as other touch screens - and there will be a market for low-end products
particularly where Android and in other segments, where some of the following can play as well: MS (and MS/Nokia), HP, Rim, Moto, and possibly Amazon or even facebook. And maybe others.Bottom line:
So not as quick a market-share grab by the Droids in phones, not a decade-long near-collapse as in PC's and not a near monopoly as in players. So my estimate is Apple stays over 50% for a year or more (an easy pick given that they're still mostly competing against vaporware and machines that will have to mailed to Moto when the system's actually finished), so I'll push that to two years or more. And I believe remains the number one player (against all Droid makers and MS makers - as OS groups - and the rest) for at least several more. If not longer.