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Nasdaq to diminish Apple's share of index in rebalance - Page 2

post #41 of 54
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post #42 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshdean View Post

Notice how the first posters are non-investors? The rest of us are too nauseated to weigh in. I wonder how long it'll be before Apple returns to its current valuation? One month? Two months?

How do you know they are non investors. Maybe they just aren't big experts like you. Being a Joe Q guy with a few stocks makes the question very relevant. those types of folks won't get what is going on and will sell and make it worse.

What I don't get is why they do it at all. Why 'weigh' anything. Just like the market be the market. To the untrained eye it does seem fishy and like the whole group is looking to short stocks for no reason.

Then again, you are the expert so perhaps you can explain the logic to all the little people

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #43 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple stock could see heavy trading on Tuesday after the Nasdaq stock exchange announces its plan to reduce Apple's portion of the Nasdaq-100 index from 20 percent to 12 percent during an adjustment that will increase the weighting of rivals Google and Microsoft.

<snip>

Good grief! Even the opening poster doesn't understand what he is writing about.

The rebalancing will occur on May 2nd. This is the day the heaving trading will occur.

And, as what invariably always happens with these rebalancing events... nothing will happen to the stock price of Apple. By the time the event happens, index fund managers will have accounted for the event with the the tools available at their disposal like options and futures.

May 2nd will come and go, and the price of Apple shares will go on unchanged (within its normal statistical variability).
post #44 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

How do you know they are non investors. Maybe they just aren't big experts like you. Being a Joe Q guy with a few stocks makes the question very relevant. those types of folks won't get what is going on and will sell and make it worse.

What I don't get is why they do it at all. Why 'weigh' anything. Just like the market be the market. To the untrained eye it does seem fishy and like the whole group is looking to short stocks for no reason.

Then again, you are the expert so perhaps you can explain the logic to all the little people

He knows they are non investors because rebalancing events are not uncommon. They happen quarterly with the S&P 500.

The investing world has learned to deal with these events and how to minimize any volatility impact they could have. For people like you and me - they are non events.
post #45 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

This is true, however, there are couple of things that could happen. keep in mind Fund which are required to hold apple because they are an index fund will hold less making more shares available on the market. Econ 101 teacher you price is a function of supply and demand and if there is more supply prices will drop. The only question will those who buy will they hold and if they do they could reduce supply driving price back up.

The reason Apple's price is high is because the demand is higher than the supply more people want to buy than the amount of share available at any given time.

The part of the reason apple price goes up and down wildly is because of fund manager who from time to time dump shares or buy shares in large amounts to meet there internal goals for their fund.

In the long term I do not think this will affect Apples price but it is going to take time to recover from this since there will be lots of funds looking to sell apple stock and probably not as many willing to jump in.

For those who are wishing for a split, are you nuts, stock splits only devalue a company. It makes each share you own worth less put lots more stock in the market, read the above again to understand.

I too think aapl will loose but why? Because some faceless, impressionable back room guys are arbitrarily setting the rules for calculating the NASDAQ index and when they please. Apart from deciding which companies contribute to the NASDAQ index, shouldn't the index depend on market values rather on some back-room scheming?

I'm surprised the SEC allows this. These same back-room guys can manipulate the market just by having a chat.
post #46 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshdean View Post

Notice how the first posters are non-investors?

I was the first poster, and I'm a significant investor.

Al Czervik is right - when news like this comes along, it's time to BUY! BUY!! BUY!!!
post #47 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacksons View Post

Good grief! Even the opening poster doesn't understand what he is writing about.

The rebalancing will occur on May 2nd. This is the day the heaving trading will occur.

Maybe. It's not like major brokers with index funds don't have other investments that'll start changing now.

To over-simplify like mad, pretend somebody's got a third of their firm's cash in AAPL, a third in MSFT, and a third in NASDAQ's index. They know that soon they'll need to take, what, 12% of a third... 4% of their total worth in AAPL stock out of out of the index fund. Why not plan to move that to the AAPL chunk (it's like they get to buy 4% of their worth in AAPL "for free"), also plan to supplement the index fund with MSFT holdings they already have (so no MSFT purchases on the 2nd), and then sell just enough AAPL now to buy enough GOOG (et al) some time between now and 5/2 to even out their index fund holdings? They could buy the GOOG now if they think GOOG is a good deal, put that into a fourth account, and officially move it over to the index fund holdings on the 2nd of May.

Bottom line: If you think brokers are dumb enough to do all of this selling on the 2nd, where they completely lose the ability to work the market and are at the mercy of prices that second, then you need a new broker.

That's why you get the 30 days, yo. And so far, AAPL's price is pretty much stagnant, though if there are enough boneheaded brokers who actually do wait until they're as close to the 2nd as they can get (b/c they believe holding AAPL for now is a better bet with their money than GOOG or MSFT or whatever), there could be a problem as we closer to the date. But only because brokers would be acting boneheadedly!
post #48 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuffOfInterest View Post

If you don't like the game buy something like QQQ which is a major exchange traded fund (ETF) which tracks the NASDAQ 100. I gave up on individual shares years ago and only buy into these types of tracking funds now. Much safer to bet on the market than any one company.

I'm thinking the opposite, [S]selling some or all of my QQQ to buy more AAPL[/S]. edit: just did, sold all of my QQQ @ 57.38. I bought @ $44 Sept last year

Now I just need to know when to buy more AAPL currently @ $340.63

I bought QQQ awhile back (when they where QQQQ) in the low $40s because of their 20%+ AAPL and also get quarterly dividends. The effect on QQQ after May 2 will be less growth and more flat (like MSFT), the .39 dividend is too low to justify owning this index compared to AAPLs growth potential. If dividends matters more, I'd buy more XOM which pays 1.76/shr.

If you look at the chart comparison between the two, QQQ closely matches AAPL. If AAPL takes off to $400-500 by the end of the year, imagine how that chart is going to look with 40% less AAPL.
post #49 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by rufwork View Post

Maybe. It's not like major brokers with index funds don't have other investments that'll start changing now.

To over-simplify like mad, pretend somebody's got a third of their firm's cash in AAPL, a third in MSFT, and a third in NASDAQ's index. They know that soon they'll need to take, what, 12% of a third... 4% of their total worth in AAPL stock out of out of the index fund. Why not plan to move that to the AAPL chunk (it's like they get to buy 4% of their worth in AAPL "for free"), also plan to supplement the index fund with MSFT holdings they already have (so no MSFT purchases on the 2nd), and then sell just enough AAPL now to buy enough GOOG (et al) some time between now and 5/2 to even out their index fund holdings? They could buy the GOOG now if they think GOOG is a good deal, put that into a fourth account, and officially move it over to the index fund holdings on the 2nd of May.

Bottom line: If you think brokers are dumb enough to do all of this selling on the 2nd, where they completely lose the ability to work the market and are at the mercy of prices that second, then you need a new broker.

That's why you get the 30 days, yo. And so far, AAPL's price is pretty much stagnant, though if there are enough boneheaded brokers who actually do wait until they're as close to the 2nd as they can get (b/c they believe holding AAPL for now is a better bet with their money than GOOG or MSFT or whatever), there could be a problem as we closer to the date. But only because brokers would be acting boneheadedly!

Let's see what happens and let's revisit this on April 3rd
post #50 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshdean View Post

Notice how the first posters are non-investors? The rest of us are too nauseated to weigh in. I wonder how long it'll be before Apple returns to its current valuation? One month? Two months?

Quote:
Originally Posted by darkestbeforedawn View Post

A while back was there not talk of AAPL moving to the Dow ? I know very little about such things maybe someone with more knowledge can answer : Is this a sign that AAPL has out grown the Nasdaq, can it move and should it move?

I've been a (successful mutual fund) investor since 1985 and I barely understand the multiple technical implications here.

FTR, the DOW's DJIA is not limited to NYSE listings, so in fact Apple could be a component of both indices. In fact there's been a fair amount of public discussion of adding AAPL to that index.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Jesus H. Christ this has nothing to do with with devaluing Apple but everything to do with the NASDAQ 100 being less dependent upon Apple's stock and spread the difference across other stocks by intentionally requiring mutual funds investing in the NASDAQ 100 to have a small part of their fund in Apple and a greater portion across other blue chip stocks.

In short, if you want to hold more of APPL you don't buy the fund but Apple directly.

Agreed. At current trends, the index was headed toward being the AAPL One + the Nasdaq Runners Up, rather than the Nasdaq 100.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rufwork View Post

Because its value has skyrocketed in the last several years in a way NASDAQ didn't see coming.

If the AAPL stock was worth 10% of the NASDAQ, and it doubled in value while others' went down, you've easily got AAPL at over 20%. See?

These index funds essentially have one share of AAPL, one share of MSFT, etc. So when the value of the individual stocks go up and down, so does the index. But AAPL's done so well lately that its contribution to the NASDAQ index is out of whack. Note that bad stocks get taken off too if they're doing so poorly there's no real contribution any more, like when Citigroup and GM were taken off of the Dow index. What's happening to AAPL is A Good Sign if not A Good Thing for Apple.

Good context.

[emphasis changed and para break added on the last bit of your post, quoted separately below, 'cos it's priceless!!]

Quote:
Originally Posted by rufwork View Post

So it's actually a really good sign for Apple the company, but because of the way index funds work, it's going to take a hit as all those index funds essentially cash in their winnings.

The downside for index fund owners? Their winnings go into Google and MS. ;^)

Indeed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by astra4 View Post

The other question is how much of AAPL is held by index funds...

But whatever, the fundamentals remain the same and so I'd expect this hit to be temporary, until the funds have adjusted their positions.

After that, everything returns to normal :-)

It's not just the index funds that will help drive the way this plays out. Actively managed, closed-end, State retirement and Hedge Fund managers all have to decide how they'll play this. And the decisions of individual holders will interact with all of the above.

Further, a change in Apple's weighting in one index doesn't necessarily change its weighting in another (and there are many indices). So not all Index funds will be doing buying or selling.

Lastly, here's a little homework for you all who want learn more about investing: Learn what stock "beta" is and the overall role of "volatility" in all kinds of market conditions. (Hint: it's not all bad.)

An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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post #51 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple stock could see heavy trading on Tuesday after the Nasdaq stock exchange announces its plan to reduce Apple's portion of the Nasdaq-100 index from 20 percent to 12 percent during an adjustment that will increase the weighting of rivals Google and Microsoft.

The Nasdaq-100 index, which contains the 100 largest nonfinancial stocks that trade on the Nasdaq, will adjust Apple's weighting from a boosted 20.5 percent to a projected 12.3 percent, a more standard ratio based on the number of Apple shares, The Wall Street Journal reports. Nasdaq is set to announce the changes Tuesday, though they won't take effect until May 2.

According to the report, the upcoming changes to the index may cause some short-term instability in the stock market as managers adjust their holdings.

As such, shares of Apple's stock could tumble if financial products that track the Nasdaq-100, which Nasdaq says number 2,900 in 27 countries, decide to reduce their investment in Apple.

"Nasdaq estimates that for every $1 billion directly tracking the index, such as through mutual funds or ETFs, 9.5 million shares will change hands," the report noted.

"It's going to be a big trade," said Nasdaq executive vice president John Jacobs. "We wanted to make this very transparent. Everyone will see what we're doing and everyone will have a month before we do this."

Apple isn't the only company affected by the rebalance, though it will remain the largest component of the index. 81 of the companies tracked by the index will see their weighting reduce, while 19 will receive a bigger share of the index.

The companies receiving the biggest boost are Microsoft, Intel, Google and Oracle. Microsoft will jump from a 3.4 percent share of the index to 8.3 percent, while Google will move from a 4.2 percent share to 5.8 percent. Intel's share will grow from 1.6 percent to 4.2 percent and Oracle's portion of the index will more than double from 3.3 percent to 6.7 percent.



Retooling of the Nasdaq-100 is rare, though not unheard of. In 1998, the index underwent an adjustment in order meet IRS rules for exchange-traded funds based on the index. Top stocks, such as Microsoft and Intel, were weighted in order to make the index more diverse. At the time, Apple wasn't in the top third of the index.

Shares of Apple stock are up 5 percent from the beginning of the year and nearly 200 percent over the past two years.

Apple's market capitalization passed $300 billion on the first day of trading this year. The Cupertino, Calif., company had already passed long-time rival Microsoft in terms of market cap last May to become the world's largest tech company.

Last September, Apple overtook PetroChina to become the second-largest company in the world by market value, behind just Exxon-Mobil.

TTHE PROBLEM IS, HE (OBAMA) CAVED IN TO THE REPUBLICANS AND GAVE THE TAX EXTENSIONS TO THE RICH ALSO. This period of history will become the greatest transfer of wealth and power ever. It is happening now, all around us, in Congress and the States, Arizona, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Maine, New Jersey, Flordia, and others. Union Busting, battering teachers and public employees, tax cuts for upper incomes and corporations, tax increases for poor and elderly, enormous cuts in public education, and social programs, (coming) cuts in medicaid, medicare and Social Security. I voted for Obama, but I am disappointed that he caved in to Republican demands to extend tax cuts to the rich. We should have made that the front line in this war. The further we let this Steam Roller go the more difficult it is to stop. The President has to start standing up to these guys and so do we, like they are doing in Wisconsin. We are moving rapidly towards a 2 class society, which class do you think you will end up in?
post #52 of 54
Sell off 1/2 now. Buy back when it dips and hold. Could make for a very nice profit.
Lemonade anyone?
post #53 of 54
The managers of these funds would have to be idiots to sell now. This is a huge buying opportunity for them. If they could, just transfer the shares to another fund.
post #54 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmccrumb View Post

TTHE PROBLEM IS, HE (OBAMA) CAVED IN TO THE REPUBLICANS AND GAVE THE TAX EXTENSIONS TO THE RICH ALSO. This period of history will become the greatest transfer of wealth and power ever. It is happening now, all around us, in Congress and the States, Arizona, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Maine, New Jersey, Flordia, and others. Union Busting, battering teachers and public employees, tax cuts for upper incomes and corporations, tax increases for poor and elderly, enormous cuts in public education, and social programs, (coming) cuts in medicaid, medicare and Social Security. I voted for Obama, but I am disappointed that he caved in to Republican demands to extend tax cuts to the rich. We should have made that the front line in this war. The further we let this Steam Roller go the more difficult it is to stop. The President has to start standing up to these guys and so do we, like they are doing in Wisconsin. We are moving rapidly towards a 2 class society, which class do you think you will end up in?

And this is the sequence of events which caused a spike in Apple shares which led to Nasdaq re-balancing its index? Wow. Glad to have that sorted out.

Your logic is impeccably consistent here. If only in the fact it's non-existent.

Good work in collecting so many of the left's shibboleths and straw men into one para that has nothing to do with anything in the story (or preceding thread) tho'.

+ negative infinity.

An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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