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PC sales start slow in 2011 while market is 'usurped' by Apple's iPad - Page 2

post #41 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Apple's been fortunate so far not to have much in the way of competition in the tablet space. That looks like it's going to change this year. Given the choice between lower priced tablets that look the same, offer thousands of apps, and have nice displays, many buyers may opt for the lower priced option if there's no compelling reason they know of to chose otherwise. I'd wager most potential buyers have heard of both Apple and Android, but the finer points of difference are lost on them. Thus a sub-$400 Apple tablet may make market sense.

It might, however nobody is beating them on price with capacitive screens at the same size, and specs.
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post #42 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Denmaru View Post

2 spelling errors:

*) It should be "RIM", not "RIMM".
*) It's "deutsche Bank", not "deutcshe Bank".

You're welcome.

It should be Deutsche Bank, not deutsche Bank.

You're welcome.
post #43 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

It might, however nobody is beating them on price with capacitive screens at the same size, and specs.

Unless you count an Asus tablet with capacitive 10.1" IPS 1280 x 800-resolution display, mini-HDMI and miniUSB ports as well as a microSD card slot. Plus a 1.2 front and 5mp rear camera with HD video recording. Plus a digital gyroscope, GPS, Bluetooth 2.1, WiFi, HDMI output and 3.5 mm headset jack with built-in 5.1 SRS Surround Sound. All for $100 less than the least expensive iPad2. And that's unlikely to be the only competitor to deliver a tablet with comparable or better specifications at a lower price. Competition is coming fast.

I'm certainly not claiming that Asus' product is equal to the iPad2. Heck, it might be found to be a poor cousin once it gets out in the wild. Or perhaps not. It might be a great tablet. No one knows for sure yet, even tho this one's been in development for awhile apparently. But really I'm just using it as evidence that there are companies capable of offering a product for less than Apple is willing to sell for without cutting back on the features and hardware, yet still make a buck or two. Asus is just the first to do so, and most certainly won't be the last. Even if your're a diehard fan of Apple, don't hide your head in the sand and believe the bunk that no one can compete on price and specs. They can and will, and rather soon.
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post #44 of 54
PC sales are certainly being impacted by iPad sales - they would have to be - at a minimum of $500 a pop - that's a lot of laptops going unpurchased - and there are certainly a lot of quality laptops at the 500-600-700 price points. So there is a definite hit on PC sales.. I imagine there will be a trickle down (don't get me talking about trickle down) effect on peripherals as well...
I think there will be another impact of all these iPads getting out into the world - let me tell you my little story - I had ipods since the ipod mini 2nd generation - I had itunes, but it wasn't a big part of my electronic world - my CD's - my radio - my ipod.... OK I knew of Apple and I liked their products - for what they were...
Their computers were always a bit too much for my budget - and since I write - PCs were the ones who made word processing simple and cheap... Wordperfect for Mac was about $20.00 more than for Windows - my mind was made up. Macs were for graphic artists - and since the things I did that were graphic were either in print or hidden in the confines of my bedroom - Windows it was.
Now this Christmas I wanted to get ipods for the kids (10 and 12) - I figured a couple of nano's - but when I went to Target - they had the Touch 32G for $295 with a $50 gift card - the Touch was only $65 more... Hell I splurged!
Someone here once wrote that the Touch is a gateway drug - heh hehh heh..
Long story short - it is April and my kids rarely put down the Touches - when they do - I grab it! Well I did grab it - I now grab my 32G WiFi white iPad... Oh and my wife and I replaced our phones (Verizon iPhones)
Now I need a new computer.... (actually need a couple)
Do you think I am going to buy a PC?
If I didn't splurge at Target... probably yes.
The people who have bought iPads in the last year... what do you think a large portion of them are going to do?
I think this is being played out all over the country - the next wave of PC sales will definitely include more and more Mac purchases...
I read that Macbok Air sales are through the roof - ya think?
People want a computer (gadget - doohickey) that works... Programs that work...
I asked a Mac buddy what happened when I deleted an app on my son's Touch - It can't be so easy as to just press the little red negative sign... don't I have to rewrite the damned registry? Isn't there like three or four actions I must take to make sure it is really gone?
My friend laughed...
There is something wonderous in simplicity.
I don't buy a Mercedes Benz and ask the salesman where under the hood I can take my screwdriver to try to eke out another 2 MPG - I don't complain when there isn't an access panel where I can dial up the spring rates...
You can do that in a Ferrari - but I think they sell like three a year...
When you look at the options list - the automatic air conditioning costs more - the one with the dials and levers comes standard...
I like to push a button and have it work...
I have no Apple stock - I might consider buying - I think they will sell a crapload of computers....
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post #45 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

As a dedicated iOS user, that's probably a fair assessment you've given Android's Honeycomb version. There's a significant difference in the way the two OS's are approached and neither would be the best match for everyone. But otherwise you thought the Asus tablet hardware itself was good in the time you used it? To me it's impressive that they could come in 25% less than Apple yet use the same size/type of screen and equivalent hardware. That would appear to be evidence that there's hefty margins in tablets if they can price it so low. Gives hope that perhaps we'll see a sub-$400 tablet from Apple in the next release.

No, the reason why these companies are charging less is because they're making almost no profit on them. Apple has already stated, as I mentioned, that they're taking a cut in margins on iPads so they could price them to sell. Asus is a second line company, and it charges second line prices. If you look at Asus's finances, you'll see they're making almost no profit. How long can they last that way? There are several other second line companies like them such as Acer, Visisonic and others. They will all charge less for less well made products.

I'm not very impressed. We'll see how long each of these tablets last. The rumor is that even the Xoom is being discontinued in June for another model.
post #46 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Apple's been fortunate so far not to have much in the way of competition in the tablet space. That looks like it's going to change this year. Given the choice between lower priced tablets that look the same, offer thousands of apps, and have nice displays, many buyers may opt for the lower priced option if there's no compelling reason they know of to chose otherwise. I'd wager most potential buyers have heard of both Apple and Android, but the finer points of difference are lost on them. Thus a sub-$400 Apple tablet may make market sense.

They don't offer thousands of apps. Right now, they have perhaps three dozen. How fast will that accumulate? It doesn't look good so far.

I really think you're pushing it here. The best you have is if, if, if.
post #47 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The rumor is that even the Xoom is being discontinued in June for another model.

I didn't realize that was a rumor. I understood it was a fact. In any case, I'm not convinced that even a "2nd-tier company" like Asus would price themselves 20% under Apple if they weren't still making a significant profit. Why would they do that? Simply being a little cheaper would work nearly as well wouldn't it? I think it's much more likely that there's fatter profits in tablets than you're guessing. Apple has to pay others to build their products. It's not so hard to imagine that someone building their own might be able to find a little extra profit there.
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post #48 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I didn't realize that was a rumor. I understood it was a fact. In any case, I'm not convinced that even a "2nd-tier company" like Asus would price themselves 20% under Apple if they weren't still making a significant profit. Why would they do that? Simply being a little cheaper would work nearly as well wouldn't it? I think it's much more likely that there's fatter profits in tablets than you're guessing. Apple has to pay others to build their products. It's not so hard to imagine that someone building their own might be able to find a little extra profit there.

You don't see "Asus" stores in every state - you don't see a webswite that is full featured - you don't see Asus with an army of programmers creating applications as varied as Apple - you don't see a an Asus OS - It literally kills me when these companies list the teardown "cost" (BOM) associated with various electronic products - you get rafts of short sighted folk who tell you untill they are red in the face... "See? Apple makes $250 on that iPad - they should sell it for $350 and only make a hundred! Thats around a 30% markup!"
Of course they don't add for advertising, warrantys, employees, health insurance, and other related infrastructure... Just the materials...
There is NO reason for Apple to come in under $499 now or ever.
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post #49 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I didn't realize that was a rumor.

Wow - on the market for 90 days - I wonder how long they will back it up (other than warranty) - Will it be obsolete when I send it in for 4G?
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post #50 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I didn't realize that was a rumor. I understood it was a fact. In any case, I'm not convinced that even a "2nd-tier company" like Asus would price themselves 20% under Apple if they weren't still making a significant profit. Why would they do that? Simply being a little cheaper would work nearly as well wouldn't it? I think it's much more likely that there's fatter profits in tablets than you're guessing. Apple has to pay others to build their products. It's not so hard to imagine that someone building their own might be able to find a little extra profit there.

According to Asus's last quarterly report, their net margin (profit) was 2%. So even a 5% net would be a step up for them.

It's much cheaper having others build your product than it is building it yourself. That's why most major, and small manufacturers as well don't build their own stuff anymore. It's also far simpler from every other way of looking at it as well.
post #51 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

According to Asus's last quarterly report, their net margin (profit) was 2%. So even a 5% net would be a step up for them.

It's much cheaper having others build your product than it is building it yourself. That's why most major, and small manufacturers as well don't build their own stuff anymore. It's also far simpler from every other way of looking at it as well.

And all this time I thought those "major manufacturers" like Apple didn't build their own stuff here because overseas labor costs were so much less, specifically those in SE Asia (or even Mexico for that matter). Of course Asus isn't using North American labor either. I don't think you or anyone else has ever seen Apple leave money on the table. But for some reason they're doing that with the iPad's? Unlikely IMO. I believe there's very good profits in tablets once the tooling/line costs have been taken care of. Of course Apple doesn't have to worry about that part. That's currently Foxconn's problem. So yes, for Apple it's certainly easier and cheaper than doing it themselves. Not so much for Asus.

Note too that China labor/mat'l costs are on an upward trend now, thus making Foxconn unlikely to retain Apple's contract for more than another year or two unless they move much of their plant to cheaper countries, which they're trying to do according to what I've read. Either that or Apple will be raising prices or making even less than you seem to think they do on iPad sales. With Foxconn already showing a loss for last quarter, I don't see how contract prices can do anything but go up.
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post #52 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

And all this time I thought those "major manufacturers" like Apple didn't build their own stuff here because overseas labor costs were so much less, specifically those in SE Asia (or even Mexico for that matter). Of course Asus isn't using North American labor either. I don't think you or anyone else has ever seen Apple leave money on the table. But for some reason they're doing that with the iPad's? Unlikely IMO. I believe there's very good profits in tablets once the tooling/line costs have been taken care of. Of course Apple doesn't have to worry about that part. That's currently Foxconn's problem. So yes, for Apple it's certainly easier and cheaper than doing it themselves. Not so much for Asus.

Note too that China labor/mat'l costs are on an upward trend now, thus making Foxconn unlikely to retain Apple's contract for more than another year or two unless they move much of their plant to cheaper countries, which they're trying to do according to what I've read. Either that or Apple will be raising prices or making even less than you seem to think they do on iPad sales. With Foxconn already showing a loss for last quarter, I don't see how contract prices can do anything but go up.

I don't think you fully understand the situation. If it were as simple as Asian labor costs, Apple and others would simply set up their own factories. But why should they have to go through the years of wangling through the corrupt and nationalistic governments, and spend the billions it will cost, when there are companies there that do this? It would make no sense. And there are plenty of smaller companies here in the USA that do contract manufacturing. In fact, most manufacturing is contract in one way or another. Very few companies these days are so vertically integrated they can produce all their own parts and materials and assembly.

You know little about Asus. Asus also builds, on contract for other companies, even, in the past, for Apple. Both Asus and Acer got their start as contract manufacturers. They expanded out from there into their own brands, first with mobo's, and then complete computers.

Yes, I've noted in the past that labor costs in China are moving upwards at a fast clip. I estimate that in a few decades, maybe as soon as 2030 or 2040, at the latest, costs around the world will be about the same, and that shipping costs will make the difference. We've seen that with Japanese companies over the years. Much of what they make for our market, they make here.

That doesn't change the fact that it's much simpler and cheaper for a company to have a contract manufacturer deal with building factories and dealing with labor.

I don't understand why you are making a fuss about this because the facts are established, well known, and you are arguing against the wind.
post #53 of 54
Horaaaa
post #54 of 54
Interesting that Whitmore predicts a 7% growth in sales for the PC over the year... I just read that PC sales are down 6.1% from last year's mark. The Apple iPad has really taken the market by storm. Such an incredible tool. I am just hoping they won't come out with the iPad3 too soon so I can enjoy my iPad2!

Just a heads up in case anyone is interested, I saw that Sporcle is giving away a free iPad2 for whoever plays their 500 millionth game. Looks like all you have to do is register and play some of the online trivia games. I've been a member there for a while and was just on there today and saw that they are nearing the 500 million mark. Pretty easy way to win an iPad2 if someone doesn't have one yet!
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