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Motorola's Android 3.0 Honeycomb Xoom sales forecast slashed to 100,000 units

post #1 of 173
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Google's flagship Android 3.0 Honeycomb competitor to Apple's iPad appears to have failed at launch, with Motorola Xoom sales estimated by Deutsche Bank to have reached just 100,000 units, a figure far lower than initial projections of failure from Morgan Stanley and RBC.

The Xoom has been hampered by a high initial price, low build quality, hardware features that were missing or nonfunctional, operating system and bundled software that was incomplete and unrefined, a scarcity of tablet-optimized applications and what appears to be a general absence of interest in tablets outside of the iPad.

Original estimates suggested Motorola would sell between 3 to 5 million units in 2011, a rate that would require as much as ten times the sales that analysts have estimated over its first two months. Instead, Motorola has reportedly sharply reduced its production orders as it evaluates demand.

In contrast to the estimated 100,000 Xoom units sold in its first two months, Apple sold 300,000 iPads on its first day of sales last year. In the final quarter of 2010, the company sold 7.33 million iPads, or about 2.4 million per month. The company is expected to announce official iPad sales figures for its most recent quarter of earnings later this month.

Apple was reported to have built around 2 million iPad 2s in preparation for launch, and is now estimated to be producing around 2.5 million units per month, with "conservative estimates" saying that Apple will begin producing 4 to 4.5 million per month to meet a growing demand that is outpacing last years'.



iPad enthusiasm fails to raise tide for other boats

While the original iPad was initially estimated to have limited sales prospects and was widely panned as being "just a big iPod touch," the unexpectedly high demand it generated in the market was immediately expected to spill over onto similar devices from competitors, including Dell's Streak and Samsung's original Galaxy Tab, both of which debuted as smaller 5 to 7 inch devices last year.

However, Apple's chief executive Steve Jobs predicted last October that such devices would fail in the market because they could not offer a clear advantage over smartphones, while also failing to provide enough screen real estate to support a real tablet experience.

Jobs also predicted that companies would abandon the 7 inch form factor this year, which both Motorola and Samsung have already done. Samsung announced a 10.1 inch version of its Galaxy Tab at February's Mobile World Congress, but then returned to the drawing board after the release of iPad 2, admitting that its first design was "inadequate." Samsung now hopes to deliver a Honeycomb tablet in June.

Honeycomb buzz suffers colony collapse disorder

Motorola's Xoom was first to market with Google's Android 3.0 Honeycomb operating system, the initial version of Android specifically designed for tablets. The Xoom was originally billed as being significantly faster than iPad, capable of running Adobe Flash, and promoted as having a more engrossing 3D user interface, complete with video conferencing capabilities the original iPad lacked.

However, the subsequent release of Apple's iPad 2 erased Xoom's speed advantages, added FaceTime cameras and undercut it on price, while Android's delayed, experimental support for Flash is still not able to deliver reasonable performance even for web videos, let alone the majority of Flash content that was originally designed to work on full power Windows PCs equipped with a mouse.




Google's Android 3.0 Honeycomb platform has also handicapped iPad competitors with unfinished edges such as a lack of HTML5 web savvy and a paucity of polished first or third party apps comparable to Apple's own Pages, Keynote, Numbers, iMovie and Garage Band and the more than 65,000 other third party iPad-optimized apps now available.

The openness of Google's Android platform has also distracted customers from getting a clear picture of what Honeycomb tablets actually represent. Prior to Google even finishing its tablet-oriented release, Android licensees such as Dell and Samsung began offering tablets running Android 2.2 Froyo against Google's recommendations, resulting in hardware with clear disadvantages and lacking an ability to upgrade to the planned 3.0 release. Google has since suspended access to Android 3.0 source code to prevent further unanticipated use of its formerly open source code.

Motorola's false start with the Xoom threatens to blight the outlook for Honeycomb tablets in advance of a series of similar offerings from Samsung, Acer and Toshiba expected to hit this summer. LG is also rumored to be partnering with Google to deliver a "Nexus" branded tablet that may divert attention away from other Honeycomb tablets in the same way that Microsoft's Zune destroyed the market for PlaysForSure media players, and as its Nokia partnership may likely starve initial interest from other competing Windows Phone 7 devices.

A high profile failure for Motorola's Xoom could poison the well for subsequent Honeycomb tablets much the same way that the failure of initial Google TV appliances from Sony and Logitech appears to have erased the prospects of mass consumer demand for an Android-based set top box.

Bleak outlook for tablets outside of iPad

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore warned in a note yesterday that "iPad challengers must either undercut on price (negative margin implications) and/or offer a superior user experience," and said his firm's tablet estimates remain below consensus "due to our concerns that non-iPad tablets will underwhelm."

Whitmore also announced slashed PC growth estimates, from initial 9 percent year-over-year growth in 2011 to just 4 percent, primarily due to weakness in the consumer market due to cannibalization by smartphones and iPads.

"We believe weak end demand in Europe and the U.S. is directly related to pressure from both the iPad and smartphones, where consumers continue extending the lives on existing hardware," Whitmore wrote. "On the other hand, corporate demand remains healthy with no signs of a slowdown as the upgrade cycle continues unabated."

He added that it "appears that iPad cannibalization [of PC sales] is tracking above our original 30% cannibalization estimate. As discussed in prior research, Apple remains the primary beneficiary of this technology transition which is increasingly coming at the expense of PC vendors (Acer, HPQ, etc)."
post #2 of 173
Ah, Deutsche Bank, thanks for the opportunity for some good ol' schadenfreude, mit schlag.
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post #3 of 173
I consider this DOA QED. No surprise. All the competitors are competing against laptops and desktops as opposed to competting against the iPad. This is evident when you consider that they are all hell bent on promoting specks and complexity where as the iPad is about simplicity and doing basic tasks well and very fast. Putting one of those tablets up against a laptop or desktops an instant failure since most people already have one of those devices and more than capable.

I'm seeing a lot of average non techy types asking me about the iPad and going out and buying them....never ONCE do they show any awareness that there are competing devices to consider, it's truly amazing, I've never seen that happen with any device. I think the carnage is going to catch everyone by surprise at how big they all fail.
post #4 of 173
Wow, that's some real impressive figures there. 100,000 is how many iPads Apple sold yesterday probably.

post #5 of 173
This confirms my claim that we shouldn't be giving so much attention to these non-iPad tablets, these things are extremly over-hyped, very few people are buying them, there's no comparison and iPad is just in another league.
post #6 of 173
Android? No Interest! Let me know when Apple has an announcement about it's sales.
post #7 of 173
I for one, am shocked. Hehehe.
post #8 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

Let me know when Apple has an announcement about it's sales.

That would be in exactly 14 days from now. April 20.
post #9 of 173
This is simply NOT POSSIBLE.

Not with Flash Support, Honeycomb
AND

a whole entire ONE GB of DDR2 RAM.

post #10 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Ah, Deutsche Bank, thanks for the opportunity for some good ol' schadenfreude, mit schlag.

AEL! (auf der Etage lachend)
post #11 of 173
"experimental support for Flash is still not able to deliver reasonable performance even for web videos"

You mean the final version of Flash, available on Android Market that delivers video perfectly as the below example shows?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gq6xzyxVYg0
post #12 of 173
iOS is simply a better experience. the only reason android is even a subject is because 1, carriers subsidized them down to free and 2, the iPhone took 4 years to get on verizon.

it will be interesting to see if people buy the xoom when they slash the price to under $400.
post #13 of 173
Has it at least been updated to allow the SD card and USB ports to work? Any date on when they let you mail it back to the factory so they can finish building it?
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post #14 of 173
It doesn’t matter if sales are lower or ramp up gradually. All that matters to make the Xoom a success is if it has pretty close to the iPad’s selection of apps and games, and that they’re of equal quality, with developers making money to keep supporting them. Assuming that battery life remains good once Flash is working, that the OS itself matches iOS for ease and simplicity, and that Motorola can match Apple’s sub-$500 entry-level price, then it’s really only the apps that matter. Hopefully Android’s app situation is about as good as on iOS...


Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

iOS is simply a better experience. the only reason android is even a subject is because 1, carriers subsidized them down to free and 2, the iPhone took 4 years to get on verizon.

it will be interesting to see if people buy the xoom when they slash the price to under $400.

Android is beloved of a certain subsegment of hard core, old-school, under-the-hood, troubleshooting-addicted, tech-savvy people. (People like us who frequent tech forums! But specifically, the Apple-hating subsegment who cling emotionally to buzzwords instead of looking at what each product delivers in actual use. Who prefer choice and power on paper instead of choice and power in reality.) That subsegment is not enough to drive sales... BUT sadly, every one of those Apple-haters influences the buying decisions of 10 regular people. (People who do NOT want to fuss with their computers, and could really benefit from an iPad.) In the short term, until those regular people get fed up and buy an iPad (or an abacus), that WILL generate some sales.
post #15 of 173
100,000? Really? Only 100,000!?
I would have thought at least 3-400,000 just from anti-Apple folks.
post #16 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

100,000? Really? Only 100,000!?
I would have thought at least 3-400,000 just from anti-Apple folks.

I think you're over-estimating the number of "anti-Apple folks", people might say stupid things on the internet, but that doesn't mean they'd throw money away in real-life, in fact more of those people are perfectly normal folks who would never even say those anti-Apple things in real-life.
post #17 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

100,000? Really? Only 100,000!?
I would have thought at least 3-400,000 just from anti-Apple folks.

I would have imagined 100,000 just from DaHarder.
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post #18 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

iOS is simply a better experience. the only reason android is even a subject is because 1, carriers subsidized them down to free and 2, the iPhone took 4 years to get on verizon.

it will be interesting to see if people buy the xoom when they slash the price to under $400.

iPhone is available on 5 carriers in my country and for free from many of them:

http://www.vodafone.co.uk/brands/iph...hone/index.htm
http://shop.o2.co.uk/mobile_phone/pa...e_4_16GB_Black
http://shop.orange.co.uk/iphone/choose-your-4g-plan

Yet I know more people with an Android phone than an iPhone. I think your reasons are a bit out, or at least don't consider any markets outside USA.
post #19 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

100,000? Really? Only 100,000!?
I would have thought at least 3-400,000 just from anti-Apple folks.

you forget, probably another 100,000 of those suckers already bought a 7" Samsung Galaxy tab months ago. leaving about 2 million of those "shipped" Galaxies unsold too. probably sitting in discount bins throughout Asia.
post #20 of 173
Motorola HAD to launch because they were splitting the company into two --- despite the fact that Honeycomb was an ugly hack that was far from production quality.
post #21 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

100,000? Really? Only 100,000!?
I would have thought at least 3-400,000 just from anti-Apple folks.

Up until not even 2 weeks ago the only version of this device available was the Verizon 3g version, which most places wouldn't sell without you signing up for some form of agreement. The wifi version JUST launched in stores, and it's not even really available overseas yet.


The launch was a failure because of poor planning on motos part. But do you REALLY expect that 300,000-400,000 Verizon Tablets would sell? I'd honestly be surprised if Veirzon sells that many of their 3g ipad2. Wifi tablets are where it's at right now.

most people don't want a tablet tied to a cellphone bill, ipad sales have shown that.
post #22 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Motorola HAD to launch because they were splitting the company into two --- despite the fact that Honeycomb was an ugly hack that was far from production quality.

MMI isn't doing well at all after the launch of the Xoom and the Atrix.
post #23 of 173
It's too bad the Xoom isn't doing better. Competition is good and iOS is feeling long in the tooth. Seems like competition can only help that.

It could come down to the same scenario as what happened with Android phones: eventually there are so many of them that the combined volume buoys the entire platform. The Evo, Droid X (and 2), Incredible, Atrix, Thunderbolt, etc don't outsell the iPhone individually, and nothing probably ever will. All of them combined make Android a pretty good platform.

Currently I prefer Android 2.2+ to iOS 4.3. I'm hoping for big things from iOS 5.
post #24 of 173
It's simply too expensive. It's not a lack of apps. There's tens of thousands that run on Honeycomb, tho only a few dozen so far optimized for it. Besides, only some small percentage of potential buyers know that and a smaller percentage yet would care. It's not that the Xoom itself is bug-ridden. It's not even that a tablet version of Flash is ready. All iPad owners already know Flash isn't needed. It just comes down to price and outlets. I for one would not buy any tablet that locks me into a term contract. I don't care how cutting edge it is now. Before two years is up you'll be ready to move on. And to be realistic, most users need no more than a wi-fi version only. Get a good tablet from a known name on the shelves of Target, Walmart and Staples at $400 and you'll see much better sales results. For most of the non-fanclub buyers, a worthy Android or WM7 tablet will get consideration.

IMO, it's the price that's most important to the majority of the public. Only a relative few (consumers) will truly pay a premium given real choices. Which we've yet to see from anyone other than Apple.
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post #25 of 173
You can buy a 32GB WiFi only Xoom at Staples for $599.
post #26 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

IMO, it's the price that's most important to the majority of the public. Only a relative few will truly pay a premium given real choices. Which we've yet to see from anyone other than Apple.

Apple's product will always be viewed as premium, so if other tablets need to be competitive in price they'd have to sell for lower than that, problem is Apple's margin on iPad is already pretty low, plus Apple has its own retail outlets so the distribution cost is much lower than the competitiors, which means it's very very hard to sell a tablet cheaper than the iPad unless they want their margins to be like 15%, which is not going to be good for stock price.

That's also why Nook Color is the only cheap tablet, because B&N doesn't have to work on the margin of the tablet when the margin comes from book sales not the device.
post #27 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Wow, that's some real impressive figures there. 100,000 is how many iPads Apple sold yesterday probably.


It's still better than the Slate, who announced they sold out, trouble was they only made 5k and sales were only 9k (and the diff would take up to 3 months to fulfill)

Honestly I think the biggest thing that has killed Honeycomb is Flash. They really hyped that point but then the support wasn't there. I suspect a lot of folks that might buy are waiting into that 'in the future' becomes now.
post #28 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Honestly I think the biggest thing that has killed Honeycomb is Flash. They really hyped that point but then the support wasn't there. I suspect a lot of folks that might buy are waiting into that 'in the future' becomes now.

The hulu-like sites would just block the Xoom once Flash is installed on it, making this a moot point.
post #29 of 173
Would you call those numbers "Zunish"?
post #30 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by neiltc13 View Post

iPhone is available on 5 carriers in my country and for free from many of them:

http://www.vodafone.co.uk/brands/iph...hone/index.htm
http://shop.o2.co.uk/mobile_phone/pa...e_4_16GB_Black
http://shop.orange.co.uk/iphone/choose-your-4g-plan

Yet I know more people with an Android phone than an iPhone. I think your reasons are a bit out, or at least don't consider any markets outside USA.

you may be right but that is only because there is so much crap the UK carriers are promoting at cheap prices,.. but when i ask people who i know if they would prefer an Iphone they all say yes,.. if they could afford one,..

The reason that android phones do ok in the UK is because of the price!!
post #31 of 173
I know we all keep reading that Apple's doesn't make much from the iPad, but other than "Apple says" there's really no evidence of that is there? I'm still of the belief there's ample profit in tablets. To believe otherwise would mean Apple's subscribed to the Google model of give away the product to make money on the ads/apps. I can't imagine Apple thinking Google has the right idea.
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post #32 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I know we all keep reading that Apple's doesn't make much from the iPad, but other than "Apple says" there's really no evidence of that is there? I'm still of the belief there's ample profit in tablets. To believe otherwise would mean Apple's subscribed to the Google model of give away the product to make money on the ads/apps. I can't imagine Apple thinking Google has the right idea.

Where did you read that Apple said they don't make much from the iPad?
post #33 of 173
Al Czervik: "Oh, this is the worst tablet I ever used. What, when you buy a Xoom tablet like this, I bet you get a free bowl of soup, huh?...
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post #34 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by ndn2007 View Post

Al Czervik: "Oh, this is the worst tablet I ever used. What, when you buy a Xoom tablet like this, I bet you get a free bowl of soup, huh?...

Looks good on you, though.
post #35 of 173
oh man, if the much hyped xoom is selling this poorly I can only imagine how the playbook will do....100 sales for the first week and maybe 10,000 for the quarter including free samples fire sale discounted price adjustments?
post #36 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by neiltc13 View Post

iPhone is available on 5 carriers in my country and for free from many of them:

http://www.vodafone.co.uk/brands/iph...hone/index.htm
http://shop.o2.co.uk/mobile_phone/pa...e_4_16GB_Black
http://shop.orange.co.uk/iphone/choose-your-4g-plan

Yet I know more people with an Android phone than an iPhone. I think your reasons are a bit out, or at least don't consider any markets outside USA.

Your small pool of friends doesn't reflect reality.
post #37 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Honeycomb buzz suffers colony collapse disorder

That line just cracks me up. Good ol' DED-style...

Seriously, the XOOM was destined for failure the moment it came out of the factory. What a shame that most will end up as door stops.
post #38 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I would have imagined 100,000 just from DaHarder.



I'm really fascinated by the fiction of the "tablet market" that was adopted as soon as the iPad went on sale. For over a year now, there have been an endless stream of articles/blog postings/financial prognostications that talk about the exploding "tablet market" and how people are really taking to "tablets" and attempting to account for the new found popularity of "tablets."

Whereas in fact they've only ever been talking about the iPad, and still are. The most diligent writers would duly note that Apple had a prohibitive share of that "market", but that was still treated like the normal jockeying for position among computer makers, or that the Very Next Awesome Android Tablet would quickly establish proper competition.

Now, at some point there really will be a tablet market, with sufficient sales from non-iPads for that terminology to make at least passing sense. But to date it's as if no one could bear the idea that Apple, and Apple alone, had figured out how to make the next iteration of personal computing and for all practical purposes "tablets" = "iPads."
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post #39 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scafe2 View Post

you may be right but that is only because there is so much crap the UK carriers are promoting at cheap prices,.. but when i ask people who i know if they would prefer an Iphone they all say yes,.. if they could afford one,..

The reason that android phones do ok in the UK is because of the price!!

Same here... I'm in the UK and know about 7 or 8 people with Android phones - at least 5 or 6 of those actually wanted an iPhone but couldn't push to the price required.

Meanwhile Android phones are being practically given away by every carrier...
post #40 of 173
I'm still bemused that more people can't make a simple calculation of the TCO of a Smartphone, data and voice services included, and weight that against the upfront costs of a handset. Saving $99 or even $199 on the phone is a drop in the bucket compared to paying to operate that phone.
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