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Motorola's Android 3.0 Honeycomb Xoom sales forecast slashed to 100,000 units - Page 2

post #41 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

That line just cracks me up. Good ol' DED-style...

Seriously, the XOOM was destined for failure the moment it came out of the factory. What a shame that most will end up as door stops.

Yeah, that was a good line.
post #42 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Yeah, that was a good line.

(tips hat) Credit where credit is due.
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post #43 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scafe2 View Post

you may be right but that is only because there is so much crap the UK carriers are promoting at cheap prices,.. but when i ask people who i know if they would prefer an Iphone they all say yes,.. if they could afford one,..

The reason that android phones do ok in the UK is because of the price!!

Yep have to agree with this.

Last year both my daughters wanted/needed new phones on a contract as they were spending to much on PAYG. They would have loved the iPhone (having already used iPod Touches for a number of years) but I just couldn't justify the cost so we put them on a plan for £15 each per month and they got Xperia Mini's running Android free.

They are happy enough for now but they haven't spent a single penny in the Android store unlike the apps they purchase on the App Store for the Touches etc.

The aspiration amongst all their friends is for the iPhone.
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post #44 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Where did you read that Apple said they don't make much from the iPad?

MelGross (moderator) has made that amply clear in several replies to me the past few days. Apparently it costs more to make tablets than it does for comparable full-fledged notebooks.
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post #45 of 173
This seems about right. You have to consider what the potential market would be.

For years it was: "Apple must make a tablet or they're DOOOOOMED!!!!" As soon as they did, the same people were screaming about how it couldn't run Final Cut Pro"Epic Fail!!! LOLZZZ!!!"

Then when the iPad started selling like hotcakes, they had to start touting every sort-of similar contraption that came down the pike, even though they do the same kind of things the iPad does and they were already on record bitching about what a worthless device the iPad was.

Anybody who thinks that they are then going to run out and spend >$800 for something they've already ridiculed in advance needs to take a reality pill.

That's assuming they have any money to spend on it. The screamers aren't buyersthey're howler monkeys. The 100,000 units were probably sold to teenage boys (who got their parents to buy it for them, that is) who saw the commercials and said: "Cool! I wanna morph into a robot!" That market is probably saturated, and I don't think their parents are going to go for any of the fantabulous new tablets that are "coming soon"not this year and probably not next year.
post #46 of 173
Whenever someone says "Xoom", I keep hearing "Zune". I'm not sure why.
post #47 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

That line just cracks me up. Good ol' DED-style...

Seriously, the XOOM was destined for failure the moment it came out of the factory. What a shame that most will end up as door stops.

Regardless of how you feel about DED’s heavy pro-Apple slant you can’t help but love the effort he puts into his articles. That section heading is a clear example of that.


PS: When your product comes out of the factory needing to go back to the factory to finish being put together you know you have a problem,
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post #48 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

MelGross (moderator) has made that amply clear in several replies to me the past few days. Apparently it costs more to make tablets than it does for comparable full-fledged notebooks.

You must have misinterpreted him. I know he is aware that Apple does not break out the profitability of different products, when it makes earnings announcements.
post #49 of 173
So a device that more than likely made Motorola $70 million in revenue in 42 days (minimum) is a flop?

Yes, the ipad sold more. Who gives a crap? You don't need to have iOS numbers to escape being called a "Flop."

Any analyst that predicted several million sales this year when all they knew of was a Verizon xoom and possibly a wifi model was stupid. Full Stop. Just like the "analysts" that predicted a FULL RETAIL phone, sold only online, one that required a data plan, would sell millions a quarter (aka N1 launch).

It's clear that Analysts don't understand the tech market. They've had to "significantly" adjust their figures for EVERY tech product launch in the past few years. Why are you listening to them again?


Much better commentary on this news story can be found here:
http://www.bgr.com/2011/04/06/the-mo...nius+Report%29
post #50 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

Would you call those numbers "Zunish"?

Looks like Moto pulled a Ballmer. Well, at least Android 3.0 is Open. . . . Hahahahaha!

XOOM! Thanks, I'll be here all week, folks!
post #51 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

You must have misinterpreted him. I know he is aware that Apple does not break out the profitability of different products, when it makes earnings announcements.

I don't think I misunderstood him at all. This is his quote from yesterday:

"It actually costs more to build a tablet. Remember that those numbers you see about parts pricing is just a part of the costs. Notebook parts costs are even lower, that is, for the cheaper models. And Apple is taking lower margins on iPads to keep the pricing low, which it is. You can be sure that cheaper tablets will be just that, cheaper. Apple's real competitors are having a hard time just meeting Apple's prices. It's very likely that the only reason why the WiFi only Xoom meets Apple's price is because Motorola learned their lesson with the first model, and is taking little if no profit on its sales to keep the price down."


The entire thread where he makes this argument more than once is here: http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...hreadid=121873

I'm sure Mel knows more about Apple and it's plans than most of us.
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post #52 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

(tips hat) Credit where credit is due.

Don't encourage me too much. I might have to call out Steve Jobs for using the word
flummoxed.
post #53 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

It's still better than the Slate, who announced they sold out, trouble was they only made 5k and sales were only 9k (and the diff would take up to 3 months to fulfill)

Oh... this isn't the end of this story. Soon we'll find out that only 20,000 (or less) were actually sold and that the rest are still sitting in the channel... more than likely the English Channel.

Moto's CEO will later say that sales have actually been quite smooth.
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post #54 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post

So a device that more than likely made Motorola $70 million in revenue in 42 days (minimum) is a flop?

"Made" != profit, so yes, that could be a total flop.

How many more are sitting on shelves, what are the margins... that $70 million revenue could be a anywhere from minimal revenue to a $250 million loss/write-off. In a global market, 100,000 units sold wouldn't remotely translate to (targeted) support by developers nor anything resembling long-term support by the manufacturer, so I assume the owners of these tablets are going to give a crap.

Not the sweet success I'd be crowing about if I were a Fandroid. At least the 7" Galaxy Tab has stopped Apple in its tracks. Wait, I mean, the 8.9 and 10.1" versions... no, I mean...
post #55 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't think I misunderstood him at all. This is his quote from yesterday:

"It actually costs more to build a tablet. Remember that those numbers you see about parts pricing is just a part of the costs. Notebook parts costs are even lower, that is, for the cheaper models. And Apple is taking lower margins on iPads to keep the pricing low, which it is. You can be sure that cheaper tablets will be just that, cheaper. Apple's real competitors are having a hard time just meeting Apple's prices. It's very likely that the only reason why the WiFi only Xoom meets Apple's price is because Motorola learned their lesson with the first model, and is taking little if no profit on its sales to keep the price down."


The entire thread where he makes this argument more than once is here: http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...hreadid=121873

I'm sure Mel knows more about Apple and it's plans than most of us.

This is just mel speculating. In your post, you said that it was Apple claiming that they don't make much from the iPad. Apple has said no such thing.
post #56 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I know we all keep reading that Apple's doesn't make much from the iPad, but other than "Apple says" there's really no evidence of that is there? I'm still of the belief there's ample profit in tablets. To believe otherwise would mean Apple's subscribed to the Google model of give away the product to make money on the ads/apps. I can't imagine Apple thinking Google has the right idea.

It doesn't have to be one or the other, it's more likely somewhere in the middle. Apple has traditionally worked on a margin of about 30% so there was plenty of room to drop that figure but still make a decent margin. Remember Tim Cook's comments on a conference call a couple of years ago when he warned (I'm paraphrasing) that 'margins would be reduced on some products'?

I've said it here before, but Apple are brilliant strategists and they have executed the iPad exercise brilliantly. By launching at the price points they did they knocked out the only possible route of immediate competition - undercutting them. They are making sure that their first mover advantage solidifies into dominance as the market matures while their competitors scramble round in the dust. There are some very very clever people running that company.
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post #57 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't think I misunderstood him at all. This is his quote from yesterday:

"It actually costs more to build a tablet. Remember that those numbers you see about parts pricing is just a part of the costs. Notebook parts costs are even lower, that is, for the cheaper models. And Apple is taking lower margins on iPads to keep the pricing low, which it is. You can be sure that cheaper tablets will be just that, cheaper. Apple's real competitors are having a hard time just meeting Apple's prices. It's very likely that the only reason why the WiFi only Xoom meets Apple's price is because Motorola learned their lesson with the first model, and is taking little if no profit on its sales to keep the price down."


The entire thread where he makes this argument more than once is here: http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...hreadid=121873

I'm sure Mel knows more about Apple and it's plans than most of us.

Lower margins for apple are still high margins compared to everyone else. Handset makrers make INSANE markups on phones. They won't be able to do the same with Tablets, but they still will mark it up quite a bit, more than most other companies could get away with. They're not hurting at all by selling the ipad at the margin they are.
post #58 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

This is just mel speculating. In your post, you said that it was Apple claiming that they don't make much from the iPad. Apple has said no such thing.

My apology then for that part of the post. I took Mel's comments to be based on official Apple statements rather than an opinion.
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post #59 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

My apology then for that part of the post. I took Mel's comments to be based on official Apple statements rather than an opinion.

No problem. Just wanted to clear it up.
post #60 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrstep View Post

"Made" != profit, so yes, that could be a total flop.

How many more are sitting on shelves, what are the margins... that $70 million revenue could be a anywhere from minimal revenue to a $250 million loss/write-off. In a global market, 100,000 units sold wouldn't remotely translate to (targeted) support by developers nor anything resembling long-term support by the manufacturer, so I assume the owners of these tablets are going to give a crap.

Not the sweet success I'd be crowing about if I were a Fandroid. At least the 7" Galaxy Tab has stopped Apple in its tracks. Wait, I mean, the 8.9 and 10.1" versions... no, I mean...

We're not talking profit here. We had no idea what the profit will be, and won't find out until motorola reports their numbers. This firm got their numbers by ESTIMATING off of a graph.

The fact that ANYONE expected this to sell anywhere near as well as the ipad did is laughable. Motorola didn't. Verizon sure as hell didn't. Only analysts that have been wrong with EVERY SINGLE TECH PREDICTION in the last few years and the most rabid of android fans did.

100,000 units of an $600 (on contract) or $800 (no contract) device is a HUGE amount, especially when you're talking that it's ONLY available on one carrier, the wifi model is less than 10 days old and it ISNT EVEN AVAILABLE internationally yet. So what the numbers mean on a "international level" is pointless considering it isn't available there yet.

But then, I wouldn't expect you to understand that. You're most likely someone who considers DED's articles informative and relevant.
post #61 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh... this isn't the end of this story. Soon we'll find out that only 20,000 (or less) were actually sold and that the rest are still sitting in the channel... more than likely the English Channel.

Moto's CEO will later say that sales have actually been quite smooth.

The 100k number was based off of an ESTIMATION based on a graph posted by Google on Android OS adoption. The only way to have a registered device there is if the device is active and connected with a gmail account at the time the survey was taken.
post #62 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post

So a device that more than likely made Motorola $70 million in revenue in 42 days (minimum) is a flop?

Yes, the ipad sold more. Who gives a crap? You don't need to have iOS numbers to escape being called a "Flop."

Any analyst that predicted several million sales this year when all they knew of was a Verizon xoom and possibly a wifi model was stupid. Full Stop. Just like the "analysts" that predicted a FULL RETAIL phone, sold only online, one that required a data plan, would sell millions a quarter (aka N1 launch).

It's clear that Analysts don't understand the tech market. They've had to "significantly" adjust their figures for EVERY tech product launch in the past few years. Why are you listening to them again?


Much better commentary on this news story can be found here:
http://www.bgr.com/2011/04/06/the-mo...nius+Report%29

Using Google's own figures of 0.2% Android devices running Honeycomb, 100,000 Xooms equates to around 50 million Android devices in existence.

The actual number of Android devices counted in this survey will give a fairly accurate sales figure.

Source
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post #63 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post

The 100k number was based off of an ESTIMATION based on a graph posted by Google on Android OS adoption. The only way to have a registered device there is if the device is active and connected with a gmail account at the time the survey was taken.

My estimation... you'll never see any more than 1 or 2 Xooms in the wild during your lifetime.

I know of several people in my circle alone that have iPads... mostly non tech types. I haven't found one of them who has even heard about the Xoom... must be those catchy ads they have.
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post #64 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Using Google's own figures of 0.2% Android devices running Honeycomb, 100,000 Xooms equates to around 50 million Android devices in existence.

The actual number of Android devices counted in this survey will give a fairly accurate sales figure.

Source

But the fact remains that it's not an official number. They don't have any actual figures to back that up. On top of that, the wifi version of the Xoom had only been available for 5 days before those numbers were tabulated. This means that a majority of those "100,000" were of the $800 3g version, aka, the Verizon only model.

So you're looking at at least 100,000 tablets sold when it was only available in one country, on one carrier, and in one model.

Since those figures came out the wifi has been on sale for 5 more days, it's slowly becoming available in other countries, but it hasn't had a carrier launch anywhere else yet.

Again, calling 75,000 $800 units sold in a month a "Failure" is stupid, and analysts who were expecting this thing to sell millions were deluding themselves.


And Again:
http://www.bgr.com/2011/04/06/the-mo...ly-not-a-flop/
post #65 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

Would you call those numbers "Zunish"?

At least it has narrowly avoided the disgraceful title "next of Kin."
post #66 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

My estimation... you'll never see any more than 1 or 2 Xooms in the wild during your lifetime.

I know of several people in my circle alone that have iPads... mostly non tech types. I haven't found one of them who has even heard about the Xoom... must be those catchy ads they have.

I personally know 9 people with xooms. I know roughly double that number with ipads. And what really pushed iOS branding isn't the ads (though they are some of the best in the industry) it's how basically every prime time show makes heavy use of the technology during their shows.

Yet another reason why "Personal experience' is pointless when discussing national (or international) trends.
post #67 of 173
Here you go, Peter Oppenheimer rather than Tim Cook, from 21st July 2008:

Apple plans mystery "product transition" before September's end

Quote:
During his quarterly financial results call, Apple's chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer revealed that the company will make a key "product transition" that cuts back on its profit margins to help shut out rivals.

Quote:
Apple is also still believed to be developing its multi-touch tablet but has slipped out little extra information beyond leaks near the start of 2008.
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post #68 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post

I personally know 9 people with xooms.

You personally know people that own a Xoom? Is this one person within multidimensional travel or employees of Motorola?

Quote:
I know roughly double that number with ipads.

I have a hard believing that, too.

Quote:
And what really pushed iOS branding isn't the ads (though they are some of the best in the industry) it's how basically every prime time show makes heavy use of the technology during their shows.

That sounds absolutely insane!

Quote:
Yet another reason why "Personal experience' is pointless when discussing national (or international) trends.

I can tell you about an experience with a person Id describe as pointless.
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post #69 of 173
Moto might have sold 200,000 Xoom's if it had a full product line at launch. it might have sold 300,000 if it had an international launch. now the wifi model is coming and some international soon. so it may be too soon to call it a "flop." but it sure is off to a slow start. so Moto is reportedly cutting back on production.

meanwhile the iPad2 is selling like hotcakes with a full product line, and ramping up international sales. Apple can't build them fast enough. reportedly needs 4 million a month.

assuming all the other Android tab sales (not shipped) total as much as the Xoom will alone once "fully launched," that gives Apple about a 90% market share these days.

i expect we will see the improved Son of Xoom in the Fall, along with all the other Andorid and OEM tablets. we'll see how thye do.

btw, whatever happened to the Chrome OS tablet?
post #70 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post


Yet another reason why "Personal experience' is pointless when discussing national (or international) trends.

I wouldn't say personal experience is pointless... it just depends on how smart you are at deciphering the information you've been given.
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post #71 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

Moto might have sold 200,000 Xoom's if it had a full product line at launch. it might have sold 300,000 if it had an international launch. now the wifi model is coming and some international soon. so it may be too soon to call it a "flop." but it sure is off to a slow start. so Moto is reportedly cutting back on production.

Whether it's a flop or not depends on the number required to hit break even.

Some guy in the back of his garage didn't throw this thing together in his spare time.
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post #72 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

Moto might have sold 200,000 Xoom's if it had a full product line at launch. it might have sold 300,000 if it had an international launch. now the wifi model is coming and some international soon. so it may be too soon to call it a "flop." but it sure is off to a slow start. so Moto is reportedly cutting back on production.

meanwhile the iPad2 is selling like hotcakes with a full product line, and ramping up international sales. Apple can't build them fast enough. reportedly needs 4 million a month.

assuming all the other Android tab sales (not shipped) total as much as the Xoom will alone once "fully launched," that gives Apple about a 90% market share these days.

i expect we will see the improved Son of Xoom in the Fall, along with all the other Andorid and OEM tablets. we'll see how thye do.

btw, whatever happened to the Chrome OS tablet?

1) I think 100k for something that costs more than the iPad of the same storage capacity, an Alpha OS, poor system performance and inferior HW, missing promised features, no viable ecosystem, and an introductory price point that is 160% as much as an iPad really isnt that bad. But I do have to wonder if they have or will make a profit, or if any customers are truly happy with the experience to buy another Xoom in the future. I also wonder what kind of upgrade policy those users can expect from Moto and how much the next Moto tablet will push on the Xoom to back of the service and support list.

2) Whatever happened to Chrome OS, in general?
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post #73 of 173
I just bought a WIFI Xoom and I had to go to several different stores to get one as all of the Best Buys in Dallas were sold out. Got it at Best Buy.

You couldn't give me an iPad because I don't want to be hemmed in by Steve's idea of what one can or can't do.

Talk about 1984!
post #74 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by wickedone View Post

I just bought a WIFI Xoom and I had to go to several different stores to get one as all of the Best Buys in Dallas were sold out. Got it at Best Buy.

You couldn't give me an iPad because I don't want to be hemmed in by Steve's idea of what one can or can't do.

Talk about 1984!

We've got a live one...
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post #75 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Has it at least been updated to allow the SD card and USB ports to work? Any date on when they let you mail it back to the factory so they can finish building it?

I use a lot of Google toys for the web and absolutely everything always feels beta if not alpha and this is years later in many cases. I seems the whole Google mentality is 'develop as you go' from feed back and nothing is ever really finished ... which is great for some things but a disaster for hardware manufacturers. Not that they can complain at free but I bet we see many going back to MS or doing it themselves. All of which will be a tad too late for this boat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


2) Whatever happened to Chrome OS, in general?

Just on the second point ... I had never used Chrome OS till last week when i installed it in a VM to play with on a Mac.

It struck me immediately as simply being a copy of MobileMe all dressed up in its very own browser to access what is nothing more than a web interface. At least Mobile Me is accessible from any decent browser on any platform and doesn't market itself as an OS!

Maybe I'm missing something but that was my impression at least.

Meanwhile i look forward to the next generation of MobileMe but then so are the Google Chrome dev team probably.
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post #76 of 173
error
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post #77 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Whether it's a flop or not depends on the number required to hit break even.

Some guy in the back of his garage didn't throw this thing together in his spare time.

yeah, i'm sure Moto is going to take a sizeable $ loss on the Xoom. lots of one-time costs, plus a big marketing budget (which marketing is terrible). Moto would say they want to "build the brand" and recoup the loss later this year with the Son of Xoom. like the Droid. we'll see ...

it's nothing like the Samusung 7" Galaxy tablet fiasco. 2.1 million shipped! how many sold - 10%? 20%? what a massive blunder! the losses on that utter total flop will be in the $ hundreds of millions. some head at Samsung is gonna roll ....
post #78 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by wickedone View Post

I just bought a WIFI Xoom and I had to go to several different stores to get one as all of the Best Buys in Dallas were sold out. Got it at Best Buy.

You couldn't give me an iPad because I don't want to be hemmed in by Steve's idea of what one can or can't do.

Talk about 1984!

Too funny. That cracks me up.

So now instead of Steve's ideas (the acknowledged genius he is). You have what ... Google's rushed out copy which is open -ish (not so much now) that you or someone else can mess with and screw up?

That sounds like a plan.

p.s. come back in a year and tell us what the resale value of your 1st gen Xoom is at that point. I'd be interested to know if they plummet to door stop value as fast as I suspect they will.
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post #79 of 173
That should just about cover manufacturing and advertising. Had Motorola invested in Research & Development, they would be in the red.
post #80 of 173
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

We've got a live one...

yeah, a Moto-Bot. some ad agency has been planting obvious astroturf comments about the Xoom around the blogs from the start. one favorite line i saw a lot was "i've used both now and ...".
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