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Android to be on 49% of smartphones by 2012, leaving Apple's iOS with 19%, Gartner predicts

post #1 of 87
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Gartner's latest forecast for worldwide smartphone operating system market share predicts that Google Android will be present on nearly half of all handsets sold next year, while the iPhone and its iOS operating system will account for 19 percent of units sold.

Gartner on Thursday issued a prediction that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 increase from 2011. By the end of 2011, Android will become the most popular operating system worldwide.

And in 2012, Gartner sees Android accounting for nearly half -- 49 percent -- of the smartphone market by 2012. For comparison, Gartner sees Apple's iOS taking 19.4 percent share in 2011, and slipping to 18.9 percent total global smartphone operating system share in 2012.

And by 2015, Gartner predicts that Microsoft, with its Windows Phone platform powering Nokia handsets, will overtake Apple's iOS in smartphone operating system market share. The research firm has forecast Microsoft to represent 19.5 percent of the market in 2015, compared with Apple's 17.2 percent share with iOS.

Still, Gartner has predicted that iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014. The research firm has assumed that Apple will be more interested in maintaining its profit margins than pursuing market share and dramatically changing its pricing strategy. Its model sees iOS reaching its peak in terms of market share in 2011.

Gartner sees Apple's approach limiting adoption in emerging markets, but there have been numerous rumors that Apple is interested in building a low-cost iPhone that could be sold without a contract or carrier subsidy. This year, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook also hinted that his company was planning "clever things" to compete in the prepaid handset market.



"By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized," said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers.

"Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets."
post #2 of 87
B/c Gartner is sooooo dead on in estimating anything. They are about as precise as a wrench is at neurosurgery.
post #3 of 87
This line in particular made me chuckle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong"
post #4 of 87
Doesn't Gartner have one of the worst track records (outside of Thurrott, Dvorak and Enderle) for predicting market behavior?

And they automagically crossed out Symbian marketshare and scribbled in WP7 in its place, as if that was a foregone conclusion. I am obvious in the wrong business - I could have my dog sniff out trends better than these folks do. I think there should be an analysts' "batting average" site, which would show the overall performance statistics for some of these groups/people compared to the rest of the field...
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post #5 of 87
I predict Android will have a 49% share, iOS will have a 30% share, RIM will have a 10% share and other OSs will fight for the rest.
post #6 of 87
On the day the first Android handset was released, Gartner predicted they would have 10% of the market by 2011 (off by 100%). But three weeks BEFORE the first Android set, Gartner said RIM had "won" the Smartphone wars. By the end of 2008, Gartner was putting out reports talking about the slowing of the Smartphone market's growth.

In short, they have no idea what they're talking about and are always wrong, but as long as people will pay them to put out reports they'll happily sell some made up stuff.
post #7 of 87
If analysts were outlawed I think about 5%-10% of the upper crust of the U.S.A. would instantly be out of a job. That being said, I'm all for it. Overpriced misinformation can be obtained from the bum on the street, the Burning Man Festival, and a four year old with transformers.

I might actually trust the last three there.
post #8 of 87
I believe these predictions are reasonably accurate. Looking at the current trends of increasing adoption of Android smartphones would seem to substantiate these projections. I think in the end the mobile phone market share will look something like the desktop market share as has been mentioned previously. Currently Windows overwhelmingly dominates the desktop market with approx 90% market share while OSX has >10%. However I don't see the spread as being this great in the mobile market. It may be 60% Android, 20% iOS and 20% Windows Phone. Apple will still be enormously successful in their segment but because of the open-source nature of Android (Honeycomb excluded) and the partnerships between device makers similar to that of Microsoft, Android will continue to be the dominate mobile operating system in the near term future.
post #9 of 87
Interesting report here about smartphone market share:

http://mashable.com/2011/02/01/niels...e-marketshare/

If you look at that graph, Gartner might be on to something. For all the push Apple's gotten, they haven't increased market share in the last year or so. I know that for as big an Apple fanboy as I am, I'm toting an Android phone..
post #10 of 87
I guess they missed how well Apple has been able to compete in the MP3 market. They didn't just sit around and let competitors dominate the low end there. Instead they were quite aggressive, hitting all of the key price points.

In the phone market they currently ship a version that sells for just $49. Is there really any reason to think they can't expand their product offerings? They certainly aren't going to just sit around and lose market share, they just aren't going to tell us what they're doing until they do it.
post #11 of 87
I don't care about any of your predictions, and can't name anyone else who cares either.
post #12 of 87
who cares, apple will still have 80% dollar share.
post #13 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by punkrocker27ka View Post

I believe these predictions are reasonably accurate. Looking at the current trends of increasing adoption of Android smartphones would seem to substantiate these projections. I think in the end the mobile phone market share will look something like the desktop market share as has been mentioned previously. Currently Windows overwhelmingly dominates the desktop market with approx 90% market share while OSX has >10%. However I don't see the spread as being this great in the mobile market. It may be 60% Android, 20% iOS and 20% Windows Phone. Apple will still be enormously successful in their segment but because of the open-source nature of Android (Honeycomb excluded) and the partnerships between device makers similar to that of Microsoft, Android will continue to be the dominate mobile operating system in the near term future.

Those same factors will keep the Android share of the mobile app market right around the 5% they had in 2010. The iPhone will remain the #1 smartphone for at least the next few years. Nothing else is even close. Since in spite of always being refered to as a single platform, Android is in reality many different platforms, using a wide variety of hardware and often times incompatible operating systems that never get upgraded.

Developers will continue to invest time and resources in iOS and play around with Android. If google can not tighten the reigns on the fragmentation, many developers will just walk away. If a single Android phone ever reaches the iPhone's market share, then you will see developers coming to develop for that platform. No doubt that will work fine on many other Android devices and not at all on some.
post #14 of 87
the fact that Windows Phone 7 is number 2 shows how out of touch with reality this analysis is.
post #15 of 87
Unfortunately bigwigs at corporations listen to Gartner and use them as the absolute truth. This statement may affect many corporate decisions. Thankfully my company hasn't been listening to them lately.
post #16 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by katastroff View Post

who cares, apple will still have 80% dollar share.

And still the #1 selling phone. Android is spread out over about 85 different models.
post #17 of 87
what is misleading about this is what you don't see and that is Android as an OS means nothing by being on 49% of the smart phones. It is free. It piggybacks on massively produced hardware.
People wake up and smell the coffee!!!
What has been done was to lump all of Google's OEM's market share up like Moto and HTC and put the total under one headline:ANDROID. That may sound impressive but the tell of the tape is that the balance sheets of the OEMS are not on Google's CFO's desk.
For the Android OEMS this is nothing but a race to produce as may different iterations of an Android smart phone, advertise it and cash in as quickly as possible.
post #18 of 87
I love how these company try to predict something 4 years out when they couldn't *possibly* have a clue where iOS and Apple's marketing strategy is headed. There are so many variables in this, its unbelievable.
post #19 of 87
The thing that I don't understand is that if Apple can sell every unit as fast as they can manufacture it and they have cornered the market on component parts, where are all these millions of Androids coming from? Do they have some secret super advanced manufacturing plant somewhere that can out pace Apples facilities? And also with all of these popular Androids being sold, why do I get thousands of hits to my website from Apple devices and almost none from Android?

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post #20 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stourque View Post

And still the #1 selling phone.

Of course it is. If Apple made 10 different ones it might be different. Silly argument, but hold on tight to it.

But really, Apple isn't worried about their smartphone market share any longer. They already lost that fight, and are quite happy just sticking with their margins. If they lose device sales to Android or WM7 models, so be it. They've moved on to a more lucrative tablet market where there's much less in the way of competition.
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post #21 of 87
"Android" could be on 49% of smartphones... and that's great for Google. (I put Android in quotes because it's Google's software)

But for the manufacturers of Android phones... they're still fighting with each other. Google is happy when any Android phone gets purchased. HTC only celebrates when one of their phones gets purchased.

It's kinda like Microsoft... and HP, Dell, Asus, Acer, etc.

Even if Apple only has 19% of the smartphone market... that's still amazing for a single company with only a couple of phones.
post #22 of 87
Companies like Gartner will "interpret" the data to whoever paying them. If not Google, then Microsoft is the one behind the study.

The only scenario that it will be true is if Apple never come out with a low-end iPhone in the next 5 years AND Google allows Android on white-label, no name manufacturers.
post #23 of 87
I don't know wait real purpose all those prediction serve. What is the real meaning of those meaningless news. I've seen other blog giving Windows Phone 7 the absolute champ in 2012.

Actually all those news manipulate their numbers to minimize iOS representation. How could you compare Mobile OS considering all Android device while you getting only iPhone numbers? This is only 1/4 of the iOS device available from Apple.

To get a valid picture of the real market share of iOS, you need to count iPad and iPod at least, AppleTV should be include too. iOS go lot more beyond Phone space than any other mobile OS right now, and everyone is envying Apple on that status right now, this is why headline news like this one do what ever they can to downplay iOS.

Like I said in a other thread, with the iPhone, iPad, iPod touch and AppleTV sharing all the same hardware with Apps running on all device (minus aTV for now) and that can output full HD thru HDMI. Apple got there the biggest guns to crash the gaming console industry.

Who care is the iPhone alone doesnt surpass all Android phone combine? If you count all iOS device, Apple alone will still got a bigger marketshare than Android.

Beside, all provider are dumping their Android phone. With so many model of the same phone, they been force to liquidate their inventory. A lot of people that doesn't know what they need will buy what the salesman are giving them, you only have to see all promo you got on Android and Windows 7 Phone (Buy one got one free, get a Xbox 360 for free with a Windows 7 phones), they really are desperate sold any smartphone to anyone. I have try my self, I've go in a big provider store here in Canada (Rogers), and I've let the salesmen giving my his pitch on how better his nameless Android phone is better than iPhone. I've ask only 2 question, first: when and how I can get a upgrade for is out of date 2.2 Android phone, and if this model was the one they have the most in stock in the back store.

Yet I have not seen any Android phone that have being supported by his maker year after, Android phone maker are too busy to put new crappy model on the market for supporting they old customer. I would like to know if anyone have called Motorola, HTC, LG or Samsung for getting tech support on their phone. People who using Android phone generally doesn't know who will offer support and update for their phone.
post #24 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

But really, Apple isn't worried about their smartphone market share any longer. They already lost that fight....

What fight was that? The one where Microsoft sold an OS and Google just gave away an OS? You mean that fight? The fight that Apple isn't even in.


Quote:
They've moved on to a more lucrative tablet market where there's much less in the way of competition.

Did you actually read Gartner's figures? Estimated 90M iPhones this year. That means around $50 BILLION in revenue for Apple. I don't call that 'moving on'!
post #25 of 87
To many there are too many manufacturers plying Android phones - Moto, HTC, Dell, ASUS, Acer, Sony etc. I don't think any of them is making a profit with these phones (maybe HTC I am not sure). I think we are going to see a few of them drop out in the next couple of years.

This article is very interesting to me - http://www.electronista.com/articles....iphone.in.it/

When given a choice 92% choose the iPhone. I am convinced most Android phone users are cost conscious and app/value unconscious customers. There in no point in Apple going are these as there is no money to be made there.

While everyone seems to be predicting market share I don't see profitability predictions anywhere! Already Apple make 50% of all the profits from cell phone sales - is this going up even more?
post #26 of 87
The thing MSFT had going for it is support. Android doesn't have that. That's going to be the single biggest factor in determining the success of Android going forward.
post #27 of 87
All Apple has to do is come up with a cheap iphone and those numbers will go down the toilet
post #28 of 87
Let's not get worked up by these 'forecasts'. Nobody knows what would really happen in 2012, let alone 2015, so I usually just treat these forecasts as comedy.
post #29 of 87
Apple needs to have different size iPhones like it does for every other product that it makes. At least one with a 4" screen.
post #30 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

All Apple has to do is come up with a cheap iphone and those numbers will go down the toilet

Actually they'd have to release iOS to different handset manufacturers...
post #31 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

What fight was that? The one where Microsoft sold an OS and Google just gave away an OS? You mean that fight? The fight that Apple isn't even in.

Wow, I have no idea where you plucked that one from. You moved the goal posts all the way to another town. The article refers to market share if you take the time to read it. And that fight they've already lost. Can't be more clear can it?
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post #32 of 87
Haha, yesterday when there was a topic about iPad market share being high, it was the most important thing in the world to you guys. Today when we get one about iPhone marketshare not being that great, we have people saying it is "meaningless" and "misinformation".

Make up your minds guys
post #33 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

All Apple has to do is come up with a cheap iphone and those numbers will go down the toilet

Apple already has a $49 phone.

The difference is... you're comparing "Android" which is a multi-phone, multi-manufacturer OS..... to the iPhone.

Motorola makes the Droid 2, Droid X, Droid Pro, Atrix, Citrus, Cliq, Backflip, etc, etc, etc.

HTC makes the Thunderbolt, Evo, Epic, Shift, Incredible, G2, Wildfire, Aria, etc, etc, etc.

Apple only has the iPhone 4 in two capacities on GSM and CDMA... and the iPhone 3GS.

Yet... Apple makes more money from just those 5 models than all the Android manufacturers combined. At the end of the day... that's what matters to Apple... not market share.

Only Google wants more Android market share to collect their pennies from ads.
post #34 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by zaren View Post

Interesting report here about smartphone market share:

http://mashable.com/2011/02/01/niels...e-marketshare/

If you look at that graph, Gartner might be on to something. For all the push Apple's gotten, they haven't increased market share in the last year or so. I know that for as big an Apple fanboy as I am, I'm toting an Android phone..

I see a report for just the USA, covering a time period when the iPhone was only available from AT&T. As such, it's not really that interesting.

What will be interesting is the results over the next 2 years, as all the "2 year contracts" expire for all those Verizon customers who didn't have the iPhone as a choice.

I'm hoping Virgin Mobile gets the iPhone soon, especially with plans like 300 minutes + unlimited data for $25 a month. They have the iPhone in other markets.
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post #35 of 87
Does anyone here care about Android related news like this?

APPLE insider, not Android insider. I know Android is an iOS competitor, but this is BARELY Apple related news, and from Gartner?

Come the fu** on.
post #36 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpiceWare View Post

I see a report for just the USA, covering a time period when the iPhone was only available from AT&T. As such, it's not really that interesting.

What will be interesting is the results over the next 2 years, as all the "2 year contracts" expire for all those Verizon customers who didn't have the iPhone as a choice.

I'm hoping Virgin Mobile gets the iPhone soon, especially with plans like 300 minutes + unlimited data for $25 a month. They have the iPhone in other markets.

You get what you pay for though, don't you? I mean I've never heard of any stellar coverage from Virgin lol
post #37 of 87
So, unless I've missed something, or all the adoption data is being made up, or Apple's earnings reports have the same validity as something that comes out of Donald's Trump's face, then it's clear, Gartner has gone into the fiction business...
post #38 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

The article refers to market share if you take the time to read it. And that fight they've already lost. Can't be more clear can it?

Whatever....I guess Mercedes lost the market share war to Toyota too. Yeah right! Do you really think Mercedes ever tried to beat Toyota in sales? Do you think any Toyota owner wouldn't rather have a Mercedes?

I have tried to help my co-worker figure out how to do some relatively simple tasks on his Droid and that thing is a piece of crap in my opinion.

Apple may not have market share but they certainly have mind share wrapped up. People don't line up to buy Android phones. And frankly if and when Android gets to 49% it will be from people who just get sold some phone and they could care less since they are just dumb phone type people who bought a smart phone. They won't surf the web, they won't get their email, they won't buy an app, they will just make calls and txt. Just like my co-worker. He has had his Droid for over a year and has never once used the web on it. And he is an executive, not a clueless idiot. He just doesn't care about anything except the GPS, txt and making phone calls.

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post #39 of 87
I'm surprised you guys are raising such a fuss over market share. Market share is important up to a point but you miss the major example that gives its full context.

Windows owns over 90% of the computer market. Apple owns less than 5%. What difference has that really made in the successfulness and profitability of the Macintosh?

Android is inevitably going to own a majority of the mobile phone market. If Nokia and Microsoft can get their act together they may be able to compete with Android. Apple will never own a majority of the mobile phone market. That really will have little bearing on the success and profitability of the iPhone.
post #40 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Apple will never own a majority of the mobile phone market. That really will have little bearing on the success and profitability of the iPhone.

Agree with you there.
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