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Android to be on 49% of smartphones by 2012, leaving Apple's iOS with 19%, Gartner predicts - Page 2

post #41 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

What fight was that? The one where Microsoft sold an OS and Google just gave away an OS? You mean that fight? The fight that Apple isn't even in.




Did you actually read Gartner's figures? Estimated 90M iPhones this year. That means around $50 BILLION in revenue for Apple. I don't call that 'moving on'!

If Apple isn't involved in that "fight", why does Jobs insist on mentioning Android in keynotes and fiscal reports? When Jobs started ranting about "twitterdeck" and using misquotes from Samsung to bolster up his keynotes, that shows us that the "fight" is very much on and that he feels the need to bash the competition.
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post #42 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

what is misleading about this is what you don't see and that is Android as an OS means nothing by being on 49% of the smart phones. It is free. It piggybacks on massively produced hardware.
People wake up and smell the coffee!!!
What has been done was to lump all of Google's OEM's market share up like Moto and HTC and put the total under one headline:ANDROID. That may sound impressive but the tell of the tape is that the balance sheets of the OEMS are not on Google's CFO's desk.
For the Android OEMS this is nothing but a race to produce as may different iterations of an Android smart phone, advertise it and cash in as quickly as possible.

There are arguments against this report but that is not a good one. They are comparing phone platform to phone platform.
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post #43 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

Whatever....I guess Mercedes lost the market share war to Toyota too. Yeah right! Do you really think Mercedes ever tried to beat Toyota in sales? Do you think any Toyota owner wouldn't rather have a Mercedes?

Mercedes is tenfold expensive than a Toyota, but some Android phones are more expensive than even the iPhone 4. So, your analogy is invalid.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone View Post

He just doesn't care about anything except the GPS, txt and making phone calls.

You just said that! Android has a much better navigation app compared to the iPhone.
post #44 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by GalaxyTab View Post

If Apple isn't involved in that "fight", why does Jobs insist on mentioning Android in keynotes and fiscal reports? When Jobs started ranting about "twitterdeck" and using misquotes from Samsung to bolster up his keynotes, that shows us that the "fight" is very much on and that he feels the need to bash the competition.

The fight is on alright, i wouldnt put much credence in these reports though, they are apparantly based on buzz-words and extrapolation.

Here's a link to Gartner ( well about Gartner) in 2009 predicting 2012.

Symbian is at 37.5%. Android a mere 18%. Windows mobile ( not WP7) is hanging in there at 9% just 4% behind iOS, Maemo is banging around at 4.5% - pretty good considering it is not now anywhere - RIM is at 13%, and Apple a mere 13.6%.

Awesome predictions which are no better - and probably far worse - that a 12th peasant picking the mobile share from the entrails of a dead bird he found on the street, or a 2 year old picking the 2012 market share from the patterns of his poop as he played with it. If these guys could be sued they would be out of business.

Meanwhile windows mobile is 0%, Symbian is dead, Maemo was never anything other than dead, and RIM is dropping year on year although it probably wont go to zero.

They did underestimate Android here, but the reason for underestimating Apple and promoting Symbian ( lol) is the same stupid reason they now go for Android. Open Source. Blah Blah Blah. Although with Nokia one manufacturer was not a problem, apparently it is with Apple.

If they could be sued they would be out of business.

What we know is that Apple are 28% in the US on one carrier ( and will probably be 40% on all) and 50% in Europe and steady, that they are going to aggressively target lower devices this year, and they are the choice of 50% of US teenageers, and 58% of Chinese customers - and once supply contraints are lifted they will go large.

We know this on AI as we read these reports, the guys in Gartner dont and have no reason to exist.

If they could be sued they would be out of business.

For devs the main thing is that iOS creates about 84% of all app revenues ( it did more when it had less of the market - compared to, um. symbian). And thats in a situation where Android has passed iOS.

Of course some marketing people will read this, and naive devs. If they do go for Android they will forgo most of the market. Which is good for me.
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post #45 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by srathi View Post

.I guess Mercedes lost the market share war to Toyota too. Yeah right! Do you really think Mercedes ever tried to beat Toyota in sales? Do you think any Toyota owner wouldn't rather have a Mercedes?

They did lose the market share war to Toyota. Dont change the subject.
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post #46 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Of course it is. If Apple made 10 different ones it might be different. Silly argument, but hold on tight to it.

But really, Apple isn't worried about their smartphone market share any longer. They already lost that fight, and are quite happy just sticking with their margins. If they lose device sales to Android or WM7 models, so be it. They've moved on to a more lucrative tablet market where there's much less in the way of competition.

Which manufacture sells more Android phones than Apple sells iPhones, Maybe you should hold on .
post #47 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

and once supply contraints are lifted they will go large.

Where did you read there was a shortage of iPhones?
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post #48 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

There are arguments against this report but that is not a good one. They are comparing phone platform to phone platform.

As was clearly explained by Epic yesterday, and echoed by other major developers in the past, Android can not be developed on as a single platform.
post #49 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Where did you read there was a shortage of iPhones?

Era I pick this stuff up randomly. I make shit up.

Also they said it in their last earnings report.
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post #50 of 87


Quote:
... Gartner sees Apple's iOS taking 19.4 percent share in 2011, and slipping to 18.9 percent total global smartphone operating system share in 2012. .... The research firm has forecast Microsoft to represent 19.5 percent of the market in 2015 ...

It's amazing that, even without considering what Apple has done to the mobile device Market over the last four years, Gartner can give estimates to 1/10 of a percent for market share in another four years and keep a straight face. I presume.

Analysts and car alarm makers - talk about easy money
post #51 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

As was clearly explained by Epic yesterday, and echoed by other major developers in the past, Android can not be developed on as a single platform.

in this report Android is one platform.

All the rest of the counter arguments - except for pointing out why Gartner are wrong ( again) - sound like desperation to me. I predict - and this is based on actual reports I have read - that iOs will be on 30-40% of phones by 2015. Android, fragmented or not, will be similar.
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post #52 of 87
Quote:
But really, Apple isn't worried about their smartphone market share any longer. They already lost that fight, and are quite happy just sticking with their margins

You got a link where somebody in Apple has said that?
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post #53 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

You got a link where somebody in Apple has said that?

Yeah, I think it's the same link where Apple says they have a current shortage of iPhones.
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post #54 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Yeah, I think it's the same link where Apple says they have a current shortage of iPhones.

Lol, your parents weren't brother and sister now were they? I am not going to teach you how to google their last earnings report, because it would be probably be like trying to teach a pig algebra.

However, fuck it - lets play nice. To find out about this google Apple's earnings reports. no seriously, type those words in.

But since I like to sneer at morons, here you go, now to play with my smarter 2 year old nephew.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple...#ixzz1IshVNkev

5:19 Tim, how comfortable are you with availability of iPhones and iPads? How quickly shortages addressed? TIM: On iPad, we increased dramatically last quarter. Got into supply-demand balance, expand to 46 countries, adding 20 during the quarter. Confident enough to add another 15 countries during the month of January. Feel very good about progress. Relative to iPhone 4, feel very good about what able to do, but it's not enough. We do still have significant backlog, working around the clock to build more. Not going to predict when supply and demand will meet.
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post #55 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Lol, your parents weren't brother and sister now were they? I am not going to teach you how to google their last earnings report, because it would be probably be like trying to teach a pig algebra.

However, fuck it - lets play nice. To find out about this google Apple's earnings reports. no seriously, type those words in.

And when was that earnings report? What period did the alleged comment cover? No shame is saying your comment was an opinion. Mine was.
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post #56 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

in this report Android is one platform.

All the rest of the counter arguments - except for pointing out why Gartner are wrong ( again) - sound like desperation to me. I predict - and this is based on actual reports I have read - that iOs will be on 30-40% of phones by 2015. Android, fragmented or not, will be similar.

Garter is wrong, it is not desperate, it is true. The only thing that is desperate is the people still trying to pretend Android is one platform. In 2010, "Android" had s Marketshare advantage, yet only managed 100 million in App sales, without Apple blocking all the good apps people want.

The App Store did 1.7 or 1.3 billion in sales, the difference is largely irrelevant given the gap. The ONLY thing platform market share impacts is developer Eco-system. Android is losing by at least a 13 to 1 margin. There is no point to discussing Android as a platform until Android actually is in fact a platform.

Edit: I misread your post a bit and see we largely agree. Yes if you continue to count Android as one platform, it will continue to have high market share. That market share is gimmick.
post #57 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

And when was that earnings report? What period did the alleged comment cover? No shame is saying your comment was an opinion. Mine was.

It is possible that they have, in fact, managed a supply demand balance this Q. However,my reading of the last report suggests the demand is increasing exponentially in China. Its best to assume that they haven't met supply this Q either. In most Quarters they dont - think about the release of the 3GS and the iPhone 4. They wont when the iPhone 5 comes out either.

I would have thought that Q1 2010/11 would have had no supply constraints ( coming months after the iP4 release), but clearly it did.

So my "comment" is based on the hard evidence we had, and the only and last hard evidence we have, of iPhone supply. I didnt supply a link, I mentioned the earnings report. You then asked for the link. I provided one.

Lets leave it at that. This is off topic anyway.

To get back to what Apple want. They want to beat Android. This is personal. Getting most of the profits is meaningless if your product is a minority platform, since it is a platform not a car and the long term viability ( and profits) depends on that platform.

Apple rarely crow about Gross Margins, they mention it in the earings report and invariably guide lower. Every time. ( I think they are training the market for lower margins in future). Steve Job, on the other hand, mentions all and every stats where APple are tops - music players, app store downloads, music downloads, tablets etc.

So to win they need to reduce prices, then gartner will, once again, prove to be as useful as a grave robber in a crematorium.
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post #58 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Lol, your parents weren't brother and sister now were they? I am not going to teach you how to google their last earnings report, because it would be probably be like trying to teach a pig algebra.

However, fuck it - lets play nice. To find out about this google Apple's earnings reports. no seriously, type those words in.

But since I like to sneer at morons, here you go, now to play with my smarter 2 year old nephew.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/apple...#ixzz1IshVNkev

5:19 Tim, how comfortable are you with availability of iPhones and iPads? How quickly shortages addressed? TIM: On iPad, we increased dramatically last quarter. Got into supply-demand balance, expand to 46 countries, adding 20 during the quarter. Confident enough to add another 15 countries during the month of January. Feel very good about progress. Relative to iPhone 4, feel very good about what able to do, but it's not enough. We do still have significant backlog, working around the clock to build more. Not going to predict when supply and demand will meet.

So just to make sure I understand. About three months ago Apple said they hadn't yet balanced supply and demand (not the same as a shortage BTW). Geez, why didn't you say it was old news.

Apparently that problem must have been dealt with. Drop by or call your local Verizon store and ask for a couple of iPhones.
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post #59 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I'm surprised you guys are raising such a fuss over market share. Market share is important up to a point but you miss the major example that gives its full context.

Windows owns over 90% of the computer market. Apple owns less than 5%. What difference has that really made in the successfulness and profitability of the Macintosh?

Android is inevitably going to own a majority of the mobile phone market. If Nokia and Microsoft can get their act together they may be able to compete with Android. Apple will never own a majority of the mobile phone market. That really will have little bearing on the success and profitability of the iPhone.

Because OS marketshare determines whether you are cool or lame. If enough people buy the same phone OS as you, then you're cool and your shit doesn't stink. If everyone else is buying phones with the other phone OS, then you are lame and you a unworthy of having an opinion. (At least that's how trolls think)

I don't personally care. I bought the iPhone (original model) the day it came out. No lines because AT&T didn't offer subsidized pricing. No app store. No 3G. No jail breaks. 8GB max. Just pure Apple iPhone with a ZERO installed base. Why (if I'm not Apple) would I care what the marketshare will be in 2012?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #60 of 87
So if Gartner is correct, and Apple sells 118 million iPhones in 2012, at an average price of $625 (from AI Jan,18th 2011) then it means that poor lil Apple will have $73.75BILLION in iPhone sales. This doesn't include iPad sales. Poor doomed APPLE.
post #61 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

So just to make sure I understand. About three months ago Apple said they hadn't yet balanced supply and demand (not the same as a shortage BTW). Geez, why didn't you say it was old news.

Apparently that problem must have been dealt with. Drop by or call your local Verizon store and ask for a couple of iPhones.

The shortage is largely manifest in China, which was also in that report and which I have also mentioned.

We get hard news about Apply's supply and demand when they release their figures, so we will next week. However - just to be clear once more. I provided the link. You are now scurrying for cover, but it aint gonna work - I supplied the link you asked for. Remedially.
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post #62 of 87
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Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Because OS marketshare determines whether you are cool or lame. If enough people buy the same phone OS as you, then you're cool and your shit doesn't stink. If everyone else is buying phones with the other phone OS, then you are lame and you a unworthy of having an opinion. (At least that's how trolls think)

I don't personally care. I bought the iPhone (original model) the day it came out. No lines because AT&T didn't offer subsidized pricing. No app store. No 3G. No jail breaks. 8GB max. Just pure Apple iPhone with a ZERO installed base. Why (if I'm not Apple) would I care what the marketshare will be in 2012?

Defeatist :-)
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post #63 of 87
People like mediocrity. That's the only chance that Pawlenty or Romney have in 2012.
post #64 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by djmikeo View Post

So if Gartner is correct, and Apple sells 118 million iPhones in 2012, at an average price of $625 (from AI Jan,18th 2011) then it means that poor lil Apple will have $73.75BILLION in iPhone sales. This doesn't include iPad sales. Poor doomed APPLE.

My bet is Apple will sell 300 M phones at an ASP of $$400 - for a gross of $120B. You are right that Gartner is not assuming any price drops, but they are as useful as a tits on a bull.
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post #65 of 87
My friend got four free HTC Touch smartphones from TMobile. How woudl HTC make money? HTC said average selling price of its phones is only $300. HTC can do that because the cost at Taiwan is substantially less than US. But could other US manufacturers like Motorola, Dell survive in 2012? Does Gartner take this into account?
post #66 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

The fight is on alright, i wouldnt put much credence in these reports though, they are apparantly based on buzz-words and extrapolation.

Here's a link to Gartner ( well about Gartner) in 2009 predicting 2012.

Symbian is at 37.5%. Android a mere 18%. Windows mobile ( not WP7) is hanging in there at 9% just 4% behind iOS, Maemo is banging around at 4.5% - pretty good considering it is not now anywhere - RIM is at 13%, and Apple a mere 13.6%.

Awesome predictions which are no better - and probably far worse - that a 12th peasant picking the mobile share from the entrails of a dead bird he found on the street, or a 2 year old picking the 2012 market share from the patterns of his poop as he played with it. If these guys could be sued they would be out of business.

Meanwhile windows mobile is 0%, Symbian is dead, Maemo was never anything other than dead, and RIM is dropping year on year although it probably wont go to zero.

...

Thanks for that link, was truly entertaining. I have to note though that the prediction was surprisingly good -- not in terms of the actual numbers, but in terms of the trends. Did anybody here expect 18% for Android two years ago? I think not. Well, 18% is a lot closer to whatever they have now, so Gartner picked the trend correctly, but were being slightly conservative. You mention a misprediction for Windows mobile and not WP7 -- come on, this is semantics, who but MS could now they'd change the name of the OS? A third one, RIM -- again the prediction that they will lose significant market share was correct. The same is true for Symbian losing share... And lastly, the iPhone is stronger than predicted, again likely due to the conservative nature of the whole forecast.

Some people get fixated on the actual numbers, some on the trends -- it's fully dependent on one's personality what you'd consider more important. Clearly we cannot take the numbers as they are listed, but I think that even in the current prediction the trends are reasonable.
post #67 of 87
Im sure Apple wants more handset marketshare (and to a lesser degree mobile OS marketshare) but only if it comes with more total profit. Thats just good business

It seems like these two things would go hand-in-hand but they dont as weve seen over-and-over by their competition.

Apple takes over 50% of the handset profits and 40% of the PC profits, both of which likely to be increasing, especially with the new MBAs being popular. I think these two arms of their business will have the most in common with the iPod and iPad arms not only taking nearly all the profit but also maintaining a natural monopoly.





http://expletiveinserted.com/2011/04...ion-footprint/

Im not seeing where this imminent failure will happen so if someone could help me understand how and why Id be much appreciated.
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post #68 of 87
I don't recall anyone predicting failure. I just saw an article referencing a prediction on market share. Not the same thing at all. Apple's in no danger failing in the foreseeable future. That would be a silly prediction.
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post #69 of 87
Honestly, I don't understand what most people here are complaining about. I, too, think that it's practically impossible to make an accurate prediction that far into the future in this fast growing environment. BUT, if it turns out to be right, it's great news! For Apple shareholders, that is. If Apple manages to sell 190m iPhones in 2015, that roughly translates into 120B of revenue, assuming they don't introduce a nano version of the iPhone, in which case the market share would obviously be higher. If the iPhone continues to account for 40% of Apple's revenue, which I think is conservative, given that the tablet market is growing much faster at the moment (not to mention any new products/services coming down the pipe), we have 300B in annual revenue. That's $65 EPS, even if we assume that the margins come down a bit. At a conservative PE of 16, we have a trillion dollar company at over $1000 PPS! That's all in less than 5 years from now.
post #70 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stourque View Post

And still the #1 selling phone. Android is spread out over about 85 different models.

Bingo!
post #71 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by fecklesstechguy View Post

Doesn't Gartner have one of the worst track records (outside of Thurrott, Dvorak and Enderle) for predicting market behavior?

And they automagically crossed out Symbian marketshare and scribbled in WP7 in its place, as if that was a foregone conclusion. I am obvious in the wrong business - I could have my dog sniff out trends better than these folks do. I think there should be an analysts' "batting average" site, which would show the overall performance statistics for some of these groups/people compared to the rest of the field...

Actualy the worst record goes to DED then Gruber then Dvorak.
post #72 of 87
Again the analysts don't get it w.r.t. "emerging markets". The problem is not that the iPhone4 is "too expensive" in many of these countries, it's simply that you can't get enough of it. China, India, South East Asia, many other countries, you can't get solid, reliable flows of enough stock. China had it on their Apple Online Store but has been showing as "not available" for months.

These analysts are still spinning the line that somehow sales are not as high because of demand. 100% wrong. Apple simply cannot make enough iPhone4 and iPad2.

In smartphones Apple will cede market share because it cannot compete with the rest of the world churning out any piece of crap Android phone, in terms of the number of phones Apple can make.

In tablets Apple has at least another year of dominance because competitors can't even figure out how to copy it properly.
post #73 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

So just to make sure I understand. About three months ago Apple said they hadn't yet balanced supply and demand (not the same as a shortage BTW). Geez, why didn't you say it was old news.

Apparently that problem must have been dealt with. Drop by or call your local Verizon store and ask for a couple of iPhones.

Guys this poster is probably a reincarnation of someone banned many times before. Don't waste your time.

A typical pattern of fake civility while constantly trying to undermine what every poster says, and frequenting only the Android threads.
post #74 of 87
This will be true only if the cell phone OEMs are as dumb as the PC OEMs that allowed Microsft to drive all their profits into the ground by standardizing on one OS and only having price to compete on.

Personally I think we'll begin to see OEMs move away from Android in a year or two. Gartner only analyzes trends, they can't see or factor in unknowns in the market. It's safe to say that in two to three years something else will come along ad disrupt the volatile cell phone market. The Windows market was a completely different beast as it was corporate IT that standardized the market and corporations are very slow to changes.

It's also not important to dwell on a single device type when there are others that support the platform. Apple will also have the iPod touch and iPad numbers to help push the platform. Android will fail as a tablet OS due to the fact that people won't "blindly" purchase a tablet computer as they do cell phones.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #75 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Apple simply cannot make enough iPhone4...

In smartphones Apple will cede market share... in terms of the number of phones Apple can make.

Totally agreed... Apple can't make 'em fast enough. I bet other companies would love to have bad news like that too.

Last quarter... Apple sold 16.2 million iPhones. That works out to about 180,000 iPhones every day.

That's insane!
post #76 of 87
And how this is news exactly? Apple is one and android makers are many with tens of different models, crippled to different levels and with different price ranges.

This "predictions" is like predicting that sky will be blue in the summer.

Which of us is the fisherman and which the trout?

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post #77 of 87
They just get some kids fresh out of MBA to come up with articles like these. They are no different than many of us who post on this forum.
I stopped paying attention to them and Forrester years ago. I can get more accurate predictions on discussion boards FFS.
post #78 of 87
This is so wrong. The last thing the smartphone manufacturers want is another windows situation where their hardware is dominated by one operating system. Look at what they are doing, none of them trust Google Android that's why they are all bringing out smartphones with 2 or 3 different operating systems. In a few years I see it more evenly distributed between between the various operating systems. iOS, PalmOS, RIM, & Windows are not going to sit back and let Android dominate the market.
post #79 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Guys this poster is probably a reincarnation of someone banned many times before. Don't waste your time.

A typical pattern of fake civility while constantly trying to undermine what every poster says, and frequenting only the Android threads.

Oh, don't forget the political threads too.

Sorry, I don't think I've ever been reincarnated. No way to prove that of course. And the civility isn't fake, tho perhaps becoming a rare trait for members at any blog site to have. Anonymity allows a lot of false bravado. I'm very easy to find. Same user name everywhere I go. Except on twitter where my moniker was already taken. Had to go with Gatorguy2 there.

If you have read my other posts you'll find I do like to challenge un-supported statements and misinformation. I don't particularly care if they're made about Android or Apple, Tomtom or Garmin, O'bama or Bush. Incorrect proclamations repeated hundreds of times still don't make them true or accurate. And when those misstatements of fact are made by me I'll make every attempt to own 'em. Just like most people, it make take a nudge or two to admit I was wrong, so let me know when you come across them. Twice if you need to. I'll man up.

So knowing that other members such as yourself have an eye open for factual errors in any posts I make certainly helps me avoid being sloppy in my statements. I appreciate your attention NVidia.
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post #80 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by zaren View Post

Interesting report here about smartphone market share:

http://mashable.com/2011/02/01/niels...e-marketshare/

If you look at that graph, Gartner might be on to something. For all the push Apple's gotten, they haven't increased market share in the last year or so. I know that for as big an Apple fanboy as I am, I'm toting an Android phone..


iPhone market share didn't change much because the whole smartphone market has increase at roughly the same rate as iPhone's production capacity has been able to increase. Apple has been selling every iPhone they can make, so their market share is only constrained by the production capacity.
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