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Meta-analysis polling sites - Killing the messenger?

post #1 of 2
Thread Starter 
A lazy Saturday, and I wake up with snow outside my window in SoCal which is just weird and totally unacceptable. You know what is weird and whether it is acceptable or not is totally up to you, all the polling websites that did polling meta-analysis seems to have been bought up by major media, specifically leftist media.

The two I remember using most during the 2008 cycle are 538.com and pollster.com Nate Silver, his occasional person views and explorations of them aside, did a really good job of analyzing the polls even uncovering two pollsters that likely were just making their numbers up.

Then things got weird. First he took his previous version of pollster reliability and well, introduced a completely made up variable that awkwardly skewed the results, his transparency index. Then he was bought out by the NY Times. Since then he has become utterly worthless. His comments, which used to solicit a few hundred replies each now are lucky if they muster 50-75 replies while at the much larger NY TImes website. The pollster rankings, gone.

So when discussing these matters in 2008, another website brought up often was pollster.com. Their website would generate some very nice jpegs to insert into discussions on here. Later they even went interactive with flash and other elements you could manipulate to see trends, especially pollster trends. It was a great website that really showed CBSNews and a perpetual boat anchor tracking negative 5-7 points below any other pollster on matters related to Republican favorability. Well they are are now owned by.... the Huffington Post. You can still find the information buried within the now terrible web interface, but it is an interesting development.

Should one trust polling meta-analysis done by organizations which engage in polling themselves? I'm not so sure I would. The former pollster.com seems to still give the numbers as they fall though they are now much harder to find and you have to deal with the talking head analysis being front and center rather than the numbers. 538.com has gone off the deep end and it appears the influence and respect it had garnered are gone as well.

So have any meta-poll sites to replace these two that you like to use? Ever use them to find interesting trends? Here's one I found just this morning.

You generate a chart of party ID. One where they people interact with computers via the internet or with computerized callers, aka no people and their ability to bias a situation.

You get this chart for party ID.


It shows Republicans at 36% of party ID and Democrats at 35%. (rounding of course)

You go robo-calling and you get Democrats 35% of party ID and Republicans 34% of party ID.


Then you go human calling only which BTW, is if you look under the tools, almost exclusively the domain of news organizations, aka AP, ABC, NBC, CBS, etc and what do you get?


You get Democratic Party ID at 30% and Republican Party ID at.... 23%.

Interesting yes? Perhaps it explains why the news media, instead of doing their job, keep hitting a blind spot, losing viewership and fixating on what they perceive to be extreme versus mainstream. Bias does that though.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #2 of 2
Thread Starter 
WP/ABC spots Obama ten points of party ID and he still only has 47% approval.

Quote:
Todays WaPo/ABC sample is just as ludicrous as last December at 32/22/41, which Id remind people is three points wider than Barack Obamas popular-vote margin of victory in 2008 and that included independents and crossover Republicans.

I'm pretty sure even California has more than 22% of the voters as Republicans.

Quote:
Spotting Obama ten points doesnt do him much good, however. His 50% disapproval is his highest level since September among general-population adults (he got a 52% disapproval among likely voters in the poll before the midterms in October). Similarly, his 57% disapproval on the economy ties his worst performance in September, and the number strongly disapproving on the economy (46%) is not just his worst ever but approaching a majority. Thats not terribly surprising, however, since 44% now believe the economy is getting worse instead of better or staying the same (28% each), the worst result since March 2009 and a ten-point jump in pessimism since the midterms. Another near-majority (43%) say that increasing gasoline prices have been a serious hardship.

This is the type of poll that causes leftists to reinforce their delusion.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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