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Gartner sees Apple's iPad dominating tablet market through 2015

post #1 of 76
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Research firm Gartner sees Apple's iPad controlling the lion's share of the tablet market for the next three years, and remaining the top mobile platform in terms of sales through at least 2015.

Gartner announced its predictions on Monday, in which it said it believes Apple's iOS will control 68.7 percent of tablet sales in 2011. That would be down from the firm's estimate of 83.9 percent share in 2010, but still gives Apple a commanding lead over its competitors.

Next year, Gartner sees Apple's iPad representing 63.5 percent of tablet sales, while the entirety of the Google Android platform, bolstered by its appearance on multiple devices, is expected to grow to 24.4 percent. And in 2015, Gartner sees Apple's share of sales dipping below 50 percent to 47.1 percent, while tablets running Google Android are projected to grow to 38.6 percent of devices.

Gartner said that the iPad has done to the tablet market what the iPhone did to the smartphone market: re-invent it. With the iPad, Apple has a rich ecosystem of content that will serve as a strong pull for consumers in the years to come.

"Seeing the response from both consumers and enterprises to the iPad, many vendors are trying to compete by first delivering on hardware and then trying to leverage the platform ecosystem," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "Many, however, are making the same mistake that was made in the first response wave to the iPhone, as they are prioritizing hardware features over applications, services and overall user experience.

"Tablets will be much more dependent on the latter than smartphones have been, and the sooner vendors realize that the better chance they have to compete head-to-head with Apple."



Gartner sees Google's decision to not leave Android 3.0 Honeycomb truly open source will prevent fragmentation of the platform, but it will also slow the price decline and ultimately cap market share.

"Volume will be driven by support from many players, the ecosystem of applications for tablets getting more competitive and some platform flexibility allowing lower price points, said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "The new licensing model Google has introduced with Honeycomb enables Google to drive more control, allowing only optimal tablet implementations that dont compromise quality of experience. This might mean that prices will drop at a slower pace than what we have seen in the smartphone market."

Gartner defines a "media tablet" as a device with a touchscreen display used primarily for consuming media. Devices must have a screen size greater than 5 inches, and can be up to roughly 15 inches in size. Media tablets also run a lightweight operating system, as opposed to a full-featured OS like Windows.

The firm sees Research in Motion's QNX platform making a splash once it is available on the company's phones, in addition to the PlayBook tablet, starting in 2012. Having QNX on all of its devices will allow RIM to offer a consistent experience across its whole product portfolio and create a single developer community.

And Gartner analysts see other platforms like MeeGo and WebOS having limited appeal unless they can also grow in the smartphone business. Currently, MeeGo and WebOS do not have a major presence in the smartphone market.

"Smartphone users will want to buy a tablet that runs the same operating system as their smartphone. This is so that they can share applications across devices as well as for the sense of familiarity the user interfaces will bring," Milanesi said. "Vendors developing on Android should be prepared to see more cross brand ownership as some users might put OS over brand when it comes to the purchasing decision. Improvements on usability and brand recognition are the strongest differentiators they can focus on."

Gartner's tablet market share predictions come just days after the firm issued its projections for smartphone mobile operating system share, also through 2015. It predicted that Google Android would be on 49 percent of smartphones sold by 2012, but also prompted questions about the firm's "radically revised" forecast since 2009.

In March, Gartner lowered its forecast for PC sales in 2011 and 2012, citing the iPad as a device that will weaken demand for traditional computers. The firm believes that "media tablets" like the iPad are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives.
post #2 of 76


Didn't we just go thru one of these "Gartner prediction" threads? So this one is just as reliable an indicator as the last one, correct?
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post #3 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post



Didn't we just go thru one of these "Gartner prediction" threads? So this one is just as reliable an indicator as the last one, correct?

So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through 2050.

They are dead wrong to conclude the iPad is just a Media Tablet (their definition). While copy cats may well that, the iPad is far from being limited to consumption of data.
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post #4 of 76
I'm predicting that the iPad will sell 247,847,264.7 units in 2050.
post #5 of 76
Hopefully Apple Insider will make a post about how these are also wrong.
post #6 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through

No no - in 2016 iOS will have 13% of the tablet market. MS will have 45% and the rest will go to Android.
post #7 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewperson View Post

Hopefully Apple Insider will make a post about how these are also wrong.

No, no. Gartners predictions are only wrong when they have Apple losing market share.
post #8 of 76
So much about these predictions I disagree with. This looks even more outrageous than their smartphone predictions.
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post #9 of 76
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...nd_a_half.html


So if you JUST did an article about how Gartner's predictions should be trusted because of how much they vary, why are you posting their predictions for tablets?

You can't call a analyst untrustworthy and then turn around and agree with their analysis when it suddenly agrees with what you think will happen.

Either you accept all their predictions (you can still disagree if you want, you just can't dismiss them). or you dismiss all of them.
post #10 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Menno View Post

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...nd_a_half.html
You can't call a analyst untrustworthy and then turn around and agree with their analysis when it suddenly agrees with what you think will happen.

Too true.

But in AI defense, I don't think they're agreeing to anything in this article. I just see it as prove to show how confused people working at Gartner are.
post #11 of 76
One hundred thousand MeeGo tablets sold last year? Really?

And I am greatly comforted to know that Apple will sell 138 497 000 iPads in 2015. If they would only sell 138 496 000 iPads, they would have been in great trouble.

Seriously, anybody predicting things with more than two digits of accuracy is just blowing steam.
post #12 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by tania View Post

Too true.

But in AI defense, I don't think they're agreeing to anything in this article. I just see it as prove to show how confused people working at Gartner are.

If they were trying to prove that, they would link back to other articles.

No, what they're doing here is taking advantage of the fact that most people have the memory of goldfish (yes, I know the 3 second thing is a myth soph) and will just read this article by itself, without remembering history.

If this prediction showed Apple anywhere but first place, you can be sure that DED or one of the other writers would pen a screed that would show how pointless Gartner is again. But since it shows Apple in a positive light, they're content to just repost it and let people believe it.

So of course they're agreeing with it. Well, maybe the author isn't because they know better, but they want you (and I) and other readers to agree with it. Since it paints a positive picture they're fine with spreading it. Until the next time Gartner puts another OS ahead and suddenly they're not trustworthy again.
post #13 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So much about these predictions I disagree with. This looks even more outrageous than their smartphone predictions.

Exactly.
post #14 of 76
The iPad will probably be the only tablet I ever buy.
My iPhone 4 doesn't charge, it says 6% battery but once I plug it in, the plug shows in thebattery symbol and it doesn't charge.
Anyone have any ideas?
post #15 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

So given their accuracy thus far we can safely assume iPad will dominate through 2050.

They are dead wrong to conclude the iPad is just a Media Tablet (their definition). While copy cats may well that, the iPad is far from being limited to consumption of data.

The iPad will morph into a laptop replacement for many less demanding folk. Obviously each new version will be more powerful and software will develop alongside the hardware.

Netbooks are all but finished and laptops are already losing market share to devices like the iPad. Apple let the other PC makers bumble around with that whole ill-conceived netbook initiative and now have stepped up to show how it should be done. If competitors falls way behind, they have themselves to blame
post #16 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by noirdesir View Post

Seriously, anybody predicting things with more than two digits of accuracy is just blowing steam.

More often than not, for that far ahead and for these types of technologies, anything much more than 'well' or 'so-so' or 'poorly' is just blowing steam.

My prediction: The iPad will do very well.
post #17 of 76
Personally I don't think competitor's are going to be very far behind. They took some time to respond to the iPad, which I assume you could chalk up to seeing if there really was a market for tablets. With a few months of demonstrated market there's a lot of players readying entries meant to compete. IMHO, there's no telling where the mobile market is headed. Are cloud services really ready for mass market uptake? Does MS really have a plan? Can Nokia catch up after taking a nap the past 18 months? Will Apple bend and make a play for the entry level market?

Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.
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post #18 of 76
And I predict water will run downhill!
post #19 of 76
I was looking at the sales results for 2010. I hadn't realized that two and a half million android tablets were sold last year. I've never seen one. Is this true and if so what were they?
post #20 of 76
The Nook's, and specifically the Nook color, have been somewhat successful. That's the only one I can think of.
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post #21 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post

And I predict water will run downhill!

And you would be wrong in some cases.

http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html
post #22 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seankill View Post

The iPad will probably be the only tablet I ever buy.
My iPhone 4 doesn't charge, it says 6% battery but once I plug it in, the plug shows in thebattery symbol and it doesn't charge.
Anyone have any ideas?

I know, I shouldn't be answering this question that doesn't belong in this thread. Press both buttons (top and "home") at the same time and hold for 10 seconds. Then restart. That will likely solve the problem.
post #23 of 76
So Gartner are predicting iPad sales of 138 million in 2015.

At an ASP of $500 this would mean revenue of $69b.

That's more than the whole of the company managed in 2010 - $65b!
post #24 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by paxman View Post

No no - in 2016 iOS will have 13% of the tablet market. MS will have 45% and the rest will go to Android.

Okay, and iOS will have 95% of the profits.

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post #25 of 76
I predict iPad market share of tablets will mirror iPod market share of portable music players.

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post #26 of 76
"... Gartner's tablet market share predictions come just days after the firm issued its projections for smartphone mobile operating system share, also through 2015. It predicted that Google Android would be on 49 percent of smartphones sold by 2012, but also prompted questions about the firm's "radically revised" forecast since 2009.

In March, Gartner lowered its forecast for PC sales in 2011 and 2012, citing the iPad as a device that will weaken demand for traditional computers. The firm believes that "media tablets" like the iPad are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives. ..."

Once gain two data points does a projection make [any bets on accuracy history not looking good], but once again, PCs are getting decremented for iPads [and eventually Tablets], but an arbitrary and superficial difference is applied, so iPad is not a PC.

My personal bet is Gartner would look pretty silly if they counted them now and had to redefine their whole world view on market share among Windows and MacOS [including iOS]. Silly will eventually happen with Gartner looking sillier and sillier as time goes on.

I can see them suddenly having an epiphany as software vendors catch up e.g., Adobe with Photoshop [ever see that work on a full function NetBook]. If MS does some Office light for an iPad or Windows Tablet then poof they can get common sense.
post #27 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Personally I don't think competitor's are going to be very far behind. They took some time to respond to the iPad, which I assume you could chalk up to seeing if there really was a market for tablets. With a few months of demonstrated market there's a lot of players readying entries meant to compete. IMHO, there's no telling where the mobile market is headed. Are cloud services really ready for mass market uptake? Does MS really have a plan? Can Nokia catch up after taking a nap the past 18 months? Will Apple bend and make a play for the entry level market?

Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.

There are several reasons why the PC trumped the Mac in the early days. PCs have been less expensive and have offered far more software. Now the tables are turned. Apple has the advantage in terms of price and in terms of software offerings. If the competition is going to try and trump Apple in terms of hard specs, who cares? As the equipment keeps on getting more powerful, it's not going to matter when a consumer has a choice between really fast and even faster. What matters is fast enough to make for a good user experience. The iPad is already that for what it can do right now which is considerably more than the competition because of so much software available for the iPad.

What is there for the competition to offer to challenge Apple's lead? Put yourself in the shoes of an average consumer who sees no price advantage in buying an iPad competitor and a substantial software deficit, as in having a choices between thousands of titles for the iPad vs. hundreds for the other products (hundreds might be overstating it).

Besides, if the competition is playing catch-up, what makes you think Apple intends to stand still long enough for them to succeed?
post #28 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

I'm predicting that the iPad will sell 247,847,264.7 units in 2050.

by 2050 computers will have moved into the next stage: ubiquitious/disposable. In the same way that paper was once considered precious, then became used for decoration, then became ubiquitious and disposable. So by then, in theory, iPads could exist and sell in such high numbers...but of course by then we will have augmented reality contact lenses (Apple iVision) which will replace all computers as they exist today.
post #29 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Personally I don't think competitor's are going to be very far behind. They took some time to respond to the iPad, which I assume you could chalk up to seeing if there really was a market for tablets. With a few months of demonstrated market there's a lot of players readying entries meant to compete. IMHO, there's no telling where the mobile market is headed. Are cloud services really ready for mass market uptake? Does MS really have a plan? Can Nokia catch up after taking a nap the past 18 months? Will Apple bend and make a play for the entry level market?

Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.

1) I think competitors will be far behind. Apple had a brand new OS/UI with the iPhone in 2007 despite in being a highly evolved and saturated market, yet they managed to become the most profitable handset maker in the world in under 1.5 years. In 2010 they took over half the profits while still only being on a single network in the US, their largest single market.

2) Apple is being extra aggressive with the iPad. You can see this with the constant mentions and digs at their tablet competitors during the iPad 2 special event. I dont think Apple is planning on just making the iPad the most profitable tablet following in the steps of the iPhone, I think they are planning to making it another iPad with a natural monopoly.

3) When it comes to Apples competition its always soon. Soon! in 2010 it was that soon Tegra 2 was said to dominate anything Apple could possibly create in 2011, Soon the Xoom will dominate. Soon there will be gross of tablets at CES that will destroy the iPad. Now in 2011 the goal posts have been moved once again.

4) They had decades on the market to get it right. Now they are just following Apples lead. What makes us think they have no figured out how to trump Apple at their own game? I dont see anything but follow-the-leader with Apple taking a much higher percent of the profits than they do with the handset market.

4) Weve been using cloud services for years in some regard. What people seem to think is that youll store nothing locally and all data and media will be accessed remotely. I just dont see that at a feasible future. Well build our connectivity and services gradually while also increasing our local storage capacity.

5) As Ive mentioned I think WP7 is a good mobile OS that breaks away from many of MS faults. I think Nokia going with MS is one of their best options. Android would just push them into the lowest-denominator commodity market competing with companies that will race them to the bottom. They failed to buy WebOS, but are they really good at coding to make it work? WP7 could still be a race to the bottom but it will have to catch on first, and they get to save much effort in having to build it. Its really their best option for now. They need a tablet, but they need to concentrate on smartphones right now

6) A lot of people predicted Nokias drop and Androids rise. Its a modern, free OS used by dozens of vendors. How could Android not take off? Im just surprised that it has so little OS market share by unit at this point.

7) The iPad success seems to the biggest whammy in CE. Its a product people love but not one people need until they use it, much like the iPod. For this reason and Apples aggressive campaign I think we might be looking at another iPod-like monopoly.
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post #30 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

I'm predicting that the iPad will sell 247,847,264.7 units in 2050.

What happend to the remaining 0.3 unit ?
post #31 of 76
2015...that's when flash is going to be available on the other tablets, right?

Wait! That's the year the Hover Board comes out, and those nifty internet-surfing sunglasses that Marty's son wears!
post #32 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

The Nook's, and specifically the Nook color, have been somewhat successful. That's the only one I can think of.

I hadn't realized that the Nook was considered a tablet. The numbers make a little more sense if that is the case.
post #33 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

And you would be wrong in some cases.

http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html

And you can force molecules to bond when they don't naturally want to......you can make light go faster than the speed of light.....you can force most any rule to be violated......so what's your point?
post #34 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

And you would be wrong in some cases.

http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html



I think we should assume he meant it with the parenthetical, "under normal temperature and pressure."

Cool link, though. Point taken.
post #35 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post

And I predict water will run downhill!

That is the most reasonable dig in the commentary

These aren't even predictions, nor were the last set. They are simply the most mundane results of an excel graph or less. There is no intelligence, analysis, nothing in their figures.

All this mob is showing is that you wouldn't want to subscribe to their bizarre and no doubt costly toilet paper.

I predict the Google model for search will be obliterated by 2015, destroying their ad base and revenue stream. Investment into the zero profit Android will have forked into a shotgun effect and have been taken over by a new wave of as yet unknown manufacturers out of China and India who's wares will be rebranded by anyone who can buy 10,000 units minimum.

Meanwhile Motorola and Samsung will have left the fold with their own OS solutions and Nokia will be the Hardware arm of Microsoft who will no longer license their OS. HP will focus on vertical markets and Web OS. Dell and other Win OEM's will be desperately trying to avoid imploding. By 2018 Sony and Nintendo will have taken the Sega path and be in a buy out war for content makers.

Adobe in a radical move will cease selling their suites and turn them into packaged hard/soft combo units in a last ditch effort to exert total control on content development, analysts will compare it to the old school quantel paintbox but suprisingly due to the valueless nature of hardware their user base embraces the move as most other computing tasks are no longer done on workstations anyway and the pricing model will allow them to cycle to the fastest gear every two years at the same cost as software only used to be.

Apple will also introduce subscription computing and pioneer instore JIT micro manufacture after a big time rip off by manufacturing partner Foxconn. the system will recycle old devices instore into base materials used in an advanced rapid prototyping / printer. The old Apple Tax headlines will be recycled by pundits due to Apple's trickle pay method which with pricing brackets starting as low as $1 a day. Apple is successful though and announces $1billion dollars a day within the first year.

Now there is a freaking prediction.
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post #36 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

No, no. Gartners predictions are only wrong when they have Apple losing market share.

Actually I will argue that their premise that Android represents a single platform is also wrong in this case.. I had no problem with their prediction, only their description of Android as a single platform. It is not.
post #37 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by barboure View Post

I hadn't realized that the Nook was considered a tablet. The numbers make a little more sense if that is the case.

It is an dreaded that can be rooted to run iPhone apps, so I
guess that makes it a tablet in Android land...
post #38 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

I predict iPad market share of tablets will mirror iPod market share of portable music players.

I agree. The devices are more similar to each other than the iPad is to smartpones. Today people find mobile phones as necessities. As the price of smartphones drop more people will just choose a smartphone over the old feature phone they were using.

Like the iPod, the iPad doesn't offer anything other than convenience over traditional devices that accomplish the same tasks.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #39 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

And you would be wrong in some cases.

http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html

Today I learned something new. What an interesting read. Science is awesome.
post #40 of 76
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

There are several reasons why the PC trumped the Mac in the early days. PCs have been less expensive and have offered far more software. ...

The primary reason PCs gained the market share they did is because they were IBM (and compatible) PCs. IBM's entrenched position in business at that time (which is where most of the purchasing took place then) immediately gave them an advantage in the market. Microsoft rode those coattails and that advantage carried through the Windows era.

None of those dynamics are at play in the tablet market (or the smartphone market), except perhaps that Apple is the perceived leader in making these types of devices, no longer Microsoft, and that Android simply isn't perceived as suitable for enterprise deployment. But, the consumer market is also much more of a factor these days than it was in the early days of the PC, so any analogies made have to also account for that.

The bottom line is that simple analogies with Apple vs. IBM/Microsoft, or Mac vs. PC/DOS/Windows, simply are not valid for any sort of meaningful analysis.
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