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Apple expected to report sales of 7M iPads, 17M iPhones for Q2 2011

post #1 of 27
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Apple is once again predicted to exceed expectations in its upcoming quarterly earnings call, with one analyst forecasting sales of 7 million iPads and 17 million iPhones in the second quarter of fiscal 2011.

Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets sees Apple easily beating Wall Street forecasts for iPad 2 sales, with the second-generation device reaching between 2 million and 3 million units moved in the quarter. In all, he sees 7 million iPads being sold in the second quarter of fiscal 2011, a three-month span where the iPad 2 was on sale for less than a month.

RBC Capital Markets conducted a survey of 2,000 respondents between March 14 and 23, which found that 28 percent of those polled plan on buying an iPad 2. That's 40 percent higher than those who were interested in buying the first-generation iPad from a survey conducted last May.

Accordingly, Abramsky has adjusted his iPad 2 sales estimates for 2011 to 31 million, up from his previous prediction of 25 million. Those numbers would help Apple's revenue grow 57 percent year over year, to $102 billion.

Abramsky also sees Apple selling 17 million iPhones, which would be yet another record for Apple. In the previous holiday quarter, Apple posted a personal best with 16.2 million iPhones sold.



The second quarter of fiscal 2011 saw the launch of the CDMA Verizon iPhone 4, which Abramsky believes was a strong seller in the three-month span. He has estimated that Apple sold about 2 million of the Verizon iPhone in the quarter.

The analyst has also called for Apple to report sales of 3.6 million Macs, bolstered by the popular, redesigned thin-and-light MacBook Air. He believes Apple sold about 700,000 of the MacBook Air during the last quarter.

Apple is set to reveal its quarterly earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2011 on a call next Wednesday, April 20. The call will begin after the market closes, at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific.
post #2 of 27
In an older thread we had already discussed that Apple had probably sold around 2.5 million iPads thru the end of March. I imagine this analyst was using that same report, at least in part, as a basis for his projection. I don't think sales of 2-2.5 million iPad2's would exceed the expectations at this forum. Most analysts in a report released last week had agreed on a range of 6.5-8 million iPads sold in the 2nd quarter, tho some had gone much higher than that, 10 million or more.

Interesting on the iPhone projection tho. I wonder if they'll break out the number of 3GS compared to 4G. With the 3GS selling for $49 at ATT, it might give some guidance on what impact a less-expensive iPhone would make.
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post #3 of 27
another blockbuster quarter. My shares will soon be worthless...
post #4 of 27
Best to do own's research and at the most take these experts' opinion with skepticism. There is a lot of public info and just go around Apple stores and see if the stuff is selling. I am still waiting for my iPad2.

Anyway, the PE is so low... only 12.
post #5 of 27
My numbers are a bit higher for the iPhone. The equations I developed show 19 million iPhones, 3.9 Macs, and 10.5 iPods. The iPads number of 7 million seems right to me. I can't calculate the iPad numbers because there are no historic data prior to Q3 2010.
post #6 of 27
28% said they were going to buy an ipad2, 40% more than said they would buy an iPad1.

Hmm...

While there are various things they could mean by saying that, some mathematically amusing why not just say last year's percentage.
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post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is once again predicted to exceed expectations in its upcoming quarterly earnings call, with one analyst forecasting sales of 7 million iPads and 17 million iPhones in the second quarter of fiscal 2011...

Wouldn't it be helpful when an article is primarily about unit sales of a product to take the ten minutes required to make a chart of unit sales over the life of the product or the last year, so we have something to compare it to? No one there knows how to make a chart?

I mean you even include a completely irrelevant (to the story) chart.
post #8 of 27
my iPad 2 is on the FedEx truck right now....
post #9 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

Wouldn't it be helpful when an article is primarily about unit sales of a product to take the ten minutes required to make a chart of unit sales over the life of the product or the last year, so we have something to compare it to? No one there knows how to make a chart?

I mean you even include a completely irrelevant (to the story) chart.

Mac:



iPod:



iPhone:



iPad:

post #10 of 27
edit: Pipped by NasserAE.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #11 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Most analysts in a report released last week had agreed on a range of 6.5-8 million iPads sold in the 2nd quarter, tho some had gone much higher than that, 10 million or more.

Which report was that?
post #12 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Which report was that?

I'll have to go back and look at my links from last week. I'll link here when I find it.
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post #13 of 27
No luck doing a quick search for the post. Pretty sure it's in there somewhere.

IIRC, there were a dozen or so analysts surveyed, with the consensus that just under 6.7 million (or something close to that) iPad/iPad2's were sold in the second quarter (thru March). I think the same report/article pegged iPhone sales at 16 million.
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post #14 of 27
What really matters is not only how many they sold, but how much did the supply chain problems impact the margins per unit. This was a really disappointing quarter as far a market conditions are concerned.

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

Today AAPL rebounded slightly. Has it finally touched bottom?

Opinions on earnings per share and margins per unit are more than welcome?
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post

What really matters is not only how many they sold, but how much did the supply chain problems impact the margins per unit. This was a really disappointing quarter as far a market conditions are concerned.

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

Today AAPL rebounded slightly. Has it finally touched bottom?

Opinions on earnings per share and margins per unit are more than welcome?

I think a lot of the recent drop can be attributed to the NASDAQ reindex. It will sort itself out in time.
post #16 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post

What really matters is not only how many they sold, but how much did the supply chain problems impact the margins per unit. This was a really disappointing quarter as far a market conditions are concerned.

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

Today AAPL rebounded slightly. Has it finally touched bottom?

Opinions on earnings per share and margins per unit are more than welcome?

The entire slide began with the Alex Guana downgrade, and has never recovered despite other securities stating otherwise. No matter how many iPads are sold, court cases won, or signs of new products on the horizon, nothing seems to get the Apple stock moving which is ridiculous.
post #17 of 27
Some of the blame can probably be pinned on analysts advice early last year. None of them (that I know of) anticipated any competition for Apple in any of their mobile markets until sometime this year at the earliest. When Android's uptake skyrocketed in the latter half of 2010, many had to take a hard second look at their assumptions. Give it another quarter. I think you'll seeing some movement in Apple's stock price.
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post #18 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

No luck doing a quick search for the post. Pretty sure it's in there somewhere.

Perhaps its with the 'report' of HTC commanding 19% of the smartphone market?
Or Apple "not allowing" iPhone to be sold for free on contract?
post #19 of 27
Your guess as good as mine. If you find it before I do, go ahead and link it.

EDIT: Fairly certain the article was from Fortune, with a mention of it here: http://iphone.macnn.com/articles/11/...r.six.million/

The mention of HTC holding 19% of the smartphone market is here in case your post was intended to ask for that one too. http://www.wirelessweek.com/News/201...TC-Smartphone/

I don't think anyone's ever determined for sure if Apple would allow an iPhone to be offered free with 2-yr contract. My opinion (or guess if you prefer) is they would not.
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post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

I think a lot of the recent drop can be attributed to the NASDAQ reindex. It will sort itself out in time.

It doesn't seem like reindexing if you look at the intraday trends, especially this morning; AAPL opened higher with the NASDAQ lower. Volume is also pretty flat. But, institutional ownership has actually increased since the announcement.

I am sure it will recover in the run-up or post-earnings, but to me it looks quite odd to be trading this low. I tried to run a screener for companies based on PE and Revenue Growth to get any other comparable stock and really came up dry.
post #21 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by iGroucho View Post

another blockbuster quarter. My shares will soon be worthless...

Something is screwing with AAPL at the moment for sure! It should be north of 360.
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post #22 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Fairly certain the article was from Fortune, with a mention of it here: http://iphone.macnn.com/articles/11/...r.six.million/

Which refers to :
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...id-apple-sell/

So...

Quote:
Most analysts in a report released last week had agreed on a range of 6.5-8 million iPads sold in the 2nd quarter, tho some had gone much higher than that, 10 million or more

...is , mostly wrong.


Quote:
The mention of HTC holding 19% of the smartphone market is here in case your post was intended to ask for that one too. http://www.wirelessweek.com/News/201...TC-Smartphone/

US only.

Quote:
I don't think anyone's ever determined for sure if Apple would allow an iPhone to be offered free with 2-yr contract. My opinion (or guess if you prefer) is they would not.

No. It appears to be just you who has failed to "determine"...
http://www.vodafone.co.uk/brands/iph...hone/index.htm

I don't really care about these details but if all you are going to offer is opinions and guesses.. then I suggest you stop being critical of people doing... exactly the same.
post #23 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Which refers to :
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...id-apple-sell/

So...



...is , mostly wrong.




US only.



No. It appears to be just you who has failed to "determine"...
http://www.vodafone.co.uk/brands/iph...hone/index.htm

I don't really care about these details but if all you are going to offer is opinions and guesses.. then I suggest you stop being critical of people doing... exactly the same.

OK. Be sure to let me know when I criticize anyone's opinion.

Perhaps someone got up on the wrong side of the bed this morning?

BTW, thanks for the link to Vodafone. That's a part of your post that actually helpful. So now we know that Apple will allow their phones to be offered free with contract.
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post #24 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post

What really matters is not only how many they sold, but how much did the supply chain problems impact the margins per unit. This was a really disappointing quarter as far a market conditions are concerned.

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

Today AAPL rebounded slightly. Has it finally touched bottom?

Opinions on earnings per share and margins per unit are more than welcome?

After Robert Leitao posted a piece on Sunday titled "FY 2012 Analyst Estimates: Why AAPL Is Set To Pop' http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/....html#comments I asked him why he didn't seem to be concerned about margin pressure. He wrote:

"Apple's ability to secure components if even at higher prices for a short time is also a competitive advantage. I'm really not concerned about short-term margin pressure considering the after-purchase revenue potential of each iOS-based device sold.

While much attention is focused on gross margin, few have noticed the significant drop in operating expenses relative to revenue. As revenue growth has accelerated the percent of revenue consumed by operating expenses has fallen sharply and may mitigate any short-term pressure on margins due to higher component costs. "
post #25 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

Mac:

iPod:

iPhone:

iPad:

Thanks
post #26 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

If you feel that way, then you should view this as a buying oppurtunity. Once Apple announces blowout results next week, I am sure the stock will pop.
post #27 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post

What really matters is not only how many they sold, but how much did the supply chain problems impact the margins per unit. This was a really disappointing quarter as far a market conditions are concerned.

AAPL has tanked almost 9%, seriously underperforming. This has been mostly based on rumors and sector exposure. Only real issues were supply chain concerns, some serious derivative trading and the NASDAQ stunt. That alone can´t explain the current share price (shouldnt APPL consider the NYSE instead?) Too much speculation on this stock.

Today AAPL rebounded slightly. Has it finally touched bottom?

Opinions on earnings per share and margins per unit are more than welcome?

They did eat some cost on the iPads, however the cost of manufacturing iPad 2 is substantially lower compared to what it was to iPad 1 .....based on what I read on some tech sites. So it should balance itself out and then some.

As far as the stock goes, if you're a short term "investor" (gambler is more appropriate ), then you could think of the stock as tanking..... But long term the stock still has great growth and P/E ration is so ridiculously low.
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