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Suppliers believe Apple could ship 45 million iPads in 2011

post #1 of 42
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Sales of the iPad in 2011 could exceed some of the highest expectations, as overseas component makers have indicated that Apple could sell 45 million of its touchscreen tablet this year.

Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities is on day 6 of his tech trip to China and Taiwan. In his meetings with component suppliers, sources have revealed expectations that Apple will sell between 40 million and 45 million iPads in 2011.

White said he heard those same figures in a separate visit to Asia last fall, but "at the time, this number was difficult for many investors and some in the media to get their heads around."

Sales of 45 million iPads would be well beyond the 30.9 million units White has forecast that Apple will sell in 2011. For comparison, analyst Charlie Wolf with Needham & Company sees Apple selling 30 million iPads, and Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets has called for 28 million in 2011. Taiwanese publication DigiTimes also cited industry sources in March, who suggested Apple would ship 40 million iPads in 2011.

To put the totals in perspective, Apple sold 15 million of the first-generation iPad in 2010, when it was only available for nine months. Last year's expansion of availability, both to new stores domestically and launching in new countries internationally, was also considerably slower than this year's rapid rollout.

AAPL investors will get their first look at calendar 2011 iPad sales next week, when Apple will report its earnings for the second quarter of its fiscal 2011. That period covers the first three months of 2011, including the few weeks where the iPad 2 was on sale.
post #2 of 42
Now can AAPL go back to where it should be?
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post #3 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Now can AAPL go back to where it should be?

45 Million iPads in 2011 should put the stock well over $400/share.
post #4 of 42
All I can think to say is "holy crap"
post #5 of 42
Analysts are already certain that Apple is going to forecast "weak" guidance, so maybe 45 million iPad 2s are a bit of an exaggeration. More than doubling iPad's sales numbers from last year shouldn't be considered "weak" but you never know.
post #6 of 42
I think it's hugely optimistic.

But it's fun to speculate: 45M at an average price of $600 @ 20% profit margin implies $5.4B in profit from $27B in revenue from just iPads. If a PE of 16x is justified, given ~900M shares, that's $96 per share just from this one product!
post #7 of 42
At the next earnings call they will probably mention the 100 millionth iPhone sold milestone. By Summer they will probably mention the 200 millionth iOS device sold milestone, though they might be able to get that next week with shipping units. A year from that milestone theyll have already achieved the 300 millionth iOS devices sold.
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post #8 of 42
stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.
post #9 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

45 Million iPads in 2011 should put the stock well over $400/share.

You'd think. Until some 'expert' pundit says the Wi-Fi fails if you wrap it in a lead lined cloth.
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post #10 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.

I know, hence my plea. So should the profit margin but that doesn't either.
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post #11 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72 View Post

All I can think to say is "holy crap"

Wasn't some of that recently found? Oh no it was nails, my bad.
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post #12 of 42
I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!
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post #13 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.

Sure it does. When 3rd FQ sales of iPad failed to reach the consensus, Apple was penalized in the market.

Furthermore, if AAPL can sell 45 million iPads, that's 30 million more than they had on last years balance sheet.

So 30,000,000 x ASP of say $650 = $19.5 billion in revenue.

Let's be conservative and say AAPL net margin after tax is 21% (I'm looking for 22.5% myself) that's $4.095Billion in earnings.

Last I checked, there were 934,000,000 outstanding shares which gives us an earnings per share of $4.38.

At a P/E of about 16 (I'm expecting the market to continue to lower the P/E), that is an added $70.08 per share in value.

When you also figure in the increase to cash holdings, ($4 Billion divided by 934 million shares) thats another $4.25 or so per share.

So, if AAPL does sell 45 million iPads this year, that SHOULD increase share price by something over $74.

Of course, you're also correct in that their are millions of other factors that influence share value, such as banks causing another market crash.
post #14 of 42
Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.
post #15 of 42
I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.

As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.

iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...

Everyone I know that has spent any time using an iPad, really loves it. Especially when the apps they use have direct personal or professional relevance... everyone that has spent any time observing me using mine wants one. Everyone.

Don't base a poll on people I know, it'd skew the numbers! Or maybe.... they reflect a bigger reality?

In any case, I don't think the 'analysts' are right... once again they're off by about 10 million units... last year they crowed that Apple would *maybe* sell 2 ~ 3 million, and they sold what, 10?

Now they say maybe 30... no, I'd say they could sell 50 million if they could make enough of them...

Just my humble, unsubstantiated opinion....
post #16 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.

I thinks thats the whole idea flood the market with so many iPads that there is nothing left for the next year. Once, people that get used to the iPads & will only upgrade forward by transferring all their purchases to the newer ones.
post #17 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.

As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.

iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...

Everyone I know that has spent any time using an iPad, really loves it. Especially when the apps they use have direct personal or professional relevance... everyone that has spent any time observing me using mine wants one. Everyone.

Don't base a poll on people I know, it'd skew the numbers! Or maybe.... they reflect a bigger reality?

In any case, I don't think the 'analysts' are right... once again they're off by about 10 million units... last year they crowed that Apple would *maybe* sell 2 ~ 3 million, and they sold what, 10?

Now they say maybe 30... no, I'd say they could sell 50 million if they could make enough of them...

Just my humble, unsubstantiated opinion....

Fear not. to paraphrase a movie title ... 'If they come Apple will build'.
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post #18 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Analysts are already certain that Apple is going to forecast "weak" guidance, so maybe 45 million iPad 2s are a bit of an exaggeration. More than doubling iPad's sales numbers from last year shouldn't be considered "weak" but you never know.

Then again, what Apple guides and what Apple does are two completely different things. I could certainly see them accelerating towards 4 million units per month and even beyond as we head into the seasonally stronger second part of the year, and as Apple ramps its builds. But I can also see them maintaining very conservative guidance, especially for the next quarter in which their build ramp may be challenged by the supply chain management that they are reportedly performing.

Thompson
post #19 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

stock price has nothing to do with how many iPads Apple sells. it should, but it doesn't. i wish it did, believe me.

Amen to that, brother!
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post #20 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!

Took the words out of my mouth; 60...not bad for a "oversized iPod Touch:
post #21 of 42
If the suppliers are saying 45MM build capacity, Apple will sell 45MM. I'd guess the numbers are 20% high based on companies exagerating, but equally likely they are 10% low...
post #22 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!

Me Too!
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post #23 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!

If they could make them maybe, but I dont think they can even make 60 millions in a year. Thats 5 millions per month and since they are probably at 3m ATM, that would mean like 8 to 10 millions in the last months of the year... simply impossible.

But I do think that if they had the inventory, they could sell that many.
post #24 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.

It may very well be over...

Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.

Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.

Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.

I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.

But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.
post #25 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

It may very well be over...

Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.

Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.

Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.

I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.

But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.

Apple has won the price battle.

Apple has won the developer/app catalog battle.

Apple has won the ease-of-use battle.

Apple has won the Flash v no Flash battle.
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post #26 of 42
I just visited a local Apple store to check on availability and they are still selling out every single day. Usually early in the morning. While that isn't inconsistent with the iPad 2 launch, what is different is that they get stock just about everyday!

So let's say they are averaging 50 sales a day at every store. That would be almost a 100,000 a month based on 65 stores in the US. (I don't know the current number of US stores). I would suspect that the flagship stores are selling a lot more per day and then you have online and international sales. The problem is nobody really knows how constrained supplies really are, initial sales of iPad 2 will look good but I'm not convinced right now that they can produce enough to sustain a high sales rate.

Of course my local store is tiny and selling out of 20-50 devices a day might not reflect what is happening with Apples sales network as a whole. I just think they are production constrained right now so predictions of sales numbers is very difficult especially going into the next quarter. If the supply chain can't get past 2 million a month Apple will never see 45 million in sales. Obviously the supply chain is excited about the prospects but Apple needs to get a lot more iPads into it's store soon or the year will be over. So if their guidance is extremely low I suspect that is a reflection of supply chain problems and not demand.
post #27 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

If they could make them maybe, but I dont think they can even make 60 millions in a year. Thats 5 millions per month and since they are probably at 3m ATM, that would mean like 8 to 10 millions in the last months of the year... simply impossible.

Nothing is impossible but I think Apple is a long way from having that capability.
Quote:
But I do think that if they had the inventory, they could sell that many.

At the moment demand is certainly there. How long that will last is another question. Right now I think it could last a long time as iPad 2 is a vast improvement over the original.

The problem I have is that I really don't believe they have the inventory right now. It just seems like they are a long way from having 3 million a month flowing into the market. Of course I do hope I'm wrong.
post #28 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

So let's say they are averaging 50 sales a day at every store. That would be almost a 100,000 a month based on 65 stores in the US. (I don't know the current number of US stores).

Wikipedia states 236 retail locations in the US. That’s about 350k a month based on 50 units per day per store.

That doesn’t international sales or all their affiliates. I think they sold between 6.5 and 8.5 million this past quarter. That’s 2.17 to 2.83 million units per month.

Quote:
I don't think they are even close to 3 million a month yet.

They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.
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post #29 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.

From what I understand, Foxcon wasn't the limiting factor, it was the displays. Given previous ramp rates, it makes sense that the displays should be around 3MM per month starting in January, and likely a little higher by the end of the month. Only real concern I have is what impact Japan has on the continuing increase in rates. We hear not much on quantities-- just margins, but... it sounds optimistic.
post #30 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

It may very well be over...

Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.

You can't really say this because there is no viable competition.
Quote:
Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.

Well if you mean Android then yes. At least from the developers point of view. Consumer sales are another thing but I suspect that many that go the Android route don't know what they are buying anyways.

Apple still has a tiny part of the cell phone market and needs more than one device there. Likewise much of the potential tablet market is underserved by the iPad.
Quote:
Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.

I think this is the most shocking thing out there. I'm seeing Apple devices in places I never thought I would. It isn't just iPhones either, the corporate world seems to have gone gaga over iPad. Frankly I can understand the iPone as it is mature enough to offer real value. IPad I'm not to sure about, the software base is just a little thin.
Quote:
I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.

Speed to market is one. Let's face it they have a mass production dual core Cortex A9 product ready to put into cutovers hands. While Apple is downplaying specs (stupidly I might add) it is one the market right now with a bleeding edge hardware product. That hardware has a lot to do with making iPad 2 feel like a massive improvement over iPad1.
Quote:
But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.

What other tablet makers? I've yet to see a viable alternative to iPad.

You are right about IT managers though. I haven't seen so much interest in Apple hardware in the corporate world in years. I attribute that mostly to the lack of competition that even has a clue.
post #31 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post

I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.

As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.

iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...

I think you've nailed the issue. It's all about production. But last I heard, they were going to be up to 5 million/month soon. I believe they were at 3 million in December for the iPad 1 and adding 2 million/month more for the iPad 2. Adding another 2 million/month capacity for the iPad 2 and then switching the existing capacity from the iPad 1 to the iPad 2 would give a total capacity of 5 million.

Assume they get there by June. That would indicate an average in the first half of about 4 million/month or 24 million. But they must have gotten the message that they need to be adding a lot more production capacity. No doubt they're working on that even as we speak. If they can get to 8 million/month by the end of the year, that would indicate an average for the second half of 6.5 million/month or 39 million. Total for the year: 63 million. Total installed base by the end of the year: on the order of 75 million.
post #32 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Wikipedia states 236 retail locations in the US. Thats about 350k a month based on 50 units per day per store.

Wow, far more stores than I thought.
Quote:
That doesnt international sales or all their affiliates. I think they sold between 6.5 and 8.5 million this past quarter. Thats 2.17 to 2.83 million units per month.

Yes but that is 2/3rds last years model. I'm not convinced that iPad 2 production has ramped enough to push out those numbers.
Quote:
They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.

Well all I have to say is that they need to continue to ramp rather hard to get to 45 million a year. Even 3 million a month isn't enough to feed those numbers.

That being said it looks like they will sell everything they make.
post #33 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

You can't really say this because there is no viable competition.

I contend there is no viable competition because Apple has disseminated them, most before they could even get past the prototype stage.
Exhibit A: CES 2010. Filled with tablets. Speculation of an impending Apple tablet could be heard at every booth. Very few of these companies had price points due to the Apple tablet uncertainty and most never came to be.

Exhibit B: CES 2011. Filled with tablets. Speculation of an impending iPad 2 could be heard at every booth. Most promising Android 3.0 with Tegra 2 with claims of Spring/Summer releases and claims it will kill the iPad.

Exhibit C: Motorola Xoom. Tegra 2. Honeycomb 3.0. Promises of power yet barely faster that year old iPad in many tests and bested by iPad 2 in general performance. Missing access to certain HW despite being installed (I:e.: SD card and USB) and a requirement to ship back to factory at some future point to get cellular radio. Its kind of like Head & Shoulders commercial. They dont have it because they keep preventing it.
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post #34 of 42
Agree with nearly everything you said except who's saying their tablet is going to kill the iPad? I don't recall any manufacturer making that kind of claim. Certainly the epitome of silly if they did. I think most of the "kill the iPad" comments actually come from the Apple camp, used as a rallying cry.
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post #35 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Agree with nearly everything you said except who's saying their tablet is going to kill the iPad? I don't recall any manufacturer making that kind of claim. Certainly the epitome of silly if they did. I think most of the "kill the iPad" comments actually come from the Apple camp, used as a rallying cry.

They dont come from Apple camp, they come from sensationalist pundits and bloggers. Its hyperbole but its common enough to not be taken literally, especially in my post. You can search for iPad killer with any number of tablets and youll find of evidence to support that usage.

PS: Have your device be one that has to be killed is a sure sign you have a controlling mindshare.
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post #36 of 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

PS: Have your device be one that has to be killed is a sure sign you have a controlling mindshare.

No argument with that at all. Every move Apple makes now reverberates in every tech company's engineering and sales meetings. Apple is definitely willing to paste a target on it's back. Even taunts the others to hit it.
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post #37 of 42
That would be incredible if Apple could sell over 40 million iPad2s this year! They'll have to bump up their 7.3 million mark for the previous quarter. Hopefully, the new Foxconn factory will help with production. The market is there if they can get enough on the shelves.

Speaking of iPad2, if anyone is interested, I saw that Sporcle is giving away a free iPad2 for whoever plays their 500 millionth game. Looks like all you have to do is register and play some of the online trivia games. A good way for someone to win an iPad2 if they dont have one, since you get to play trivia games and possibly come away with an iPad2. I was just on there today and saw that they are nearing the 500 million mark.
post #38 of 42
And you do not wonder when Apple will sell it's 500 millionth iOS device? 2015! There will be that many Apple devices in the field.
Then it expodentalizes to 1 billion by 2016..he.he..2 billion by 2017. And away we go......... :-)
post #39 of 42
I really dread the day when Apple announce quarterly figures that are a whisker short of analyst expectations.

How long can this roll last?
post #40 of 42
Today (Saturday 4/16/2011) I was listening to the Kim Komando radio show. During the call in period at least three people were asking about iPads and one was asking about iPad apps. This is the largest Saturday radio show in the USA with over 500 radio stations broadcasting it.

The host raves about her iPad and its uses. The callers that already have them call and comment about how great they are. This is huge publicity. The buzz is there. When everyone is exposed to one the world of PC computing will be changed forever.

How often does the average person upgrade their PC? For me it was six years from the time I got my first computer until I got my second one. That was because it was malfunctioning.

People wanting to replace their PCs (Macs included) will be taking a look at the iPad as a choice. My thinking is that people won't replace their older desktop and laptop computers. They will keep the older ones with disc drives and just add an iPad. That way they can still use disc drives if they need them.
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