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New MacBook Pros push Apple's US sales up 47% year over year in March

post #1 of 28
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Driven by strong sales of the new Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Pro lineup, domestic Mac sales are estimated to have increased 47 percent year over year in the month of March.

The new estimates from the NPD Group were revealed Monday by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. NPD's estimates for U.S. sales put Apple up 20 percent year over year in January, 12 percent in February, and 47 percent in March, resulting in an average of 27 percent year over year for the quarter.

Actual Mac sales for the quarter will be known come Wednesday afternoon when Apple reveals its quarterly earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2011. Apple is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes, and will hold a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern to discuss the results.

Munster said a 27 percent year over year increase in Mac sales would represent total sales of between 3.6 million and 3.7 million. The data shows Apple tracking on the high end of Wall Street expectations of about 3.6 million Macs sold in the quarter.

Mac sales growth slowed slightly in February, according to NPD figures, ahead of Apple's MacBook Pro lineup refresh. The new MacBook Pros were released in late February, packing Intel's latest Sandy Bridge processors and the new high-speed Thunderbolt data port.

But Mac sales rebounded strongly in March, the first full month in which the new MacBook Pros were available. Still, Munster noted that Mac revenue is estimated to account for just 21 percent of Apple's revenue in calendar year 2011.

The latest NPD data also showed U.S. iPod sales down 10 percent year over year. International iPod sales are a larger mix than international Mac sales, resulting in a slightly greater margin of error from domestic NPD data.

Drawing assumptions from the NPD data, Munster sees Apple reporting sales of between 9.8 million and 10.3 million iPods for its second quarter of fiscal 2011. That's in line with Wall Street's expectations of 10 million iPods for the three-month frame.
post #2 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Still, Munster noted that Mac revenue is estimated to account for just 21 percent of Apple's revenue in calendar year 2011.

Really? Just 21 percent. How is the whole Apple Pie broken down? Is the Apple TV taking off? Do iTunes, and the iPod families earn the rest?
post #3 of 28
This can't be true. Some posters on the interwebs have made it clear that Apple thinks that there is no future/money in Mac OS X. If this was true, those people were obviously talking out of their a***s. Which obviously never happens on the interwebs.
post #4 of 28
I just got a 15” 2.0 GHZ I7 MBP for free 2 weeks ago. Bought it with my Airmiles

But there is a catch, I am pretty sure it was a refurbish one. And it was (still is) defective, the isight webcam doesn’t work. Went to the Apple store, they changed the monitor but the webcam is still not been detected. They order a new motherboard and they told me they are going to change the LCD panel again.
post #5 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post

Really? Just 21 percent. How is the whole Apple Pie broken down? Is the Apple TV taking off? Do iTunes, and the iPod families earn the rest?

Apple's Sep '10 annual breakdown
iPhone - ~25Bn
Mac - ~17.5Bn
iPod - ~8.2Bn
iPad - ~5Bn (note, iPad was sold only half this period, and was massively supply constrained).

For comparison, Apple's Sep '07 (when the iPhone was just released) Mac revenues were ~10.3Bn.

IOW, the Mac has grown a tremendous 70% in <3 years. But the iPhone and the iPad have just exploded.
post #6 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

Apple's Sep '10 annual breakdown
iPhone - ~25Bn
Mac - ~17.5Bn
iPod - ~8.2Bn
iPad - ~5Bn (note, iPad was sold only half this period, and was massively supply constrained).

For comparison, Apple's Sep '07 (when the iPhone was just released) Mac revenues were ~10.3Bn.

IOW, the Mac has grown a tremendous 70% in <3 years. But the iPhone and the iPad have just exploded.

And I will add up that Itunes sales are insignificant compare to Apple total revenue. I think its like 1 billion. For some reasons people assumed Apple is making load of cash with itunes but they are not
post #7 of 28
Breaking news: Product sells more at start of life than end of life. Later at 7, the sky is blue.
post #8 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

And I will add up that Itunes sales are insignificant compare to Apple total revenue. I think its like 1 billion. For some reasons people assumed Apple is making load of cash with itunes but they are not

Great point. I will add to your addition (!) that unlike their HW, where Apple makes anywhere between 25-40% margins, we KNOW that Apple makes a maximum of 30% (-delivery costs, -credit card fees) margin on the iTunes sales.

But these facts have no influence on the true believers of the "Apple will sabotage many billions of dollars in HW, for a few measly millions on content" theory.
post #9 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

This can't be true. Some posters on the interwebs have made it clear that Apple thinks that there is no future/money in Mac OS X. If this was true, those people were obviously talking out of their a***s. Which obviously never happens on the interwebs.

Well, we can go by Jobs quote. That's where the no future for the Mac is coming from.

But Apple is doing just fine with Macs. It's the other major lines that are expanding faster. IPhone sales in 2010 up 89% over the previous year. 15 million iPads sold as a new product last year, with expectations of double that, or possibly even more, this year. Computer sales are up just 25-30% YOY. That much slower growth, and so we see a smaller percentage of the business. I predicted this would happen several years ago, but without knowledge of the iPad. It will continue to drop as a percentage of sales. When it gets to 10% a year or so from now, it will be a good question as to what Apple might want to do about it. My feeling is that it would be a good time to begin a well thought out limited clone program. Apple could then afford to lose some of that 10% of sales if it significantly increased OS X penetration.
post #10 of 28
A clone program is an interesting idea, and one that makes great sense once they've squeezed what they can from the Mac. Your 10% target might make a good trigger point. Quite a nice insight Mel.
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post #11 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Well, we can go by Jobs quote. That's where the no future for the Mac is coming from.

But Apple is doing just fine with Macs. It's the other major lines that are expanding faster. IPhone sales in 2010 up 89% over the previous year. 15 million iPads sold as a new product last year, with expectations of double that, or possibly even more, this year. Computer sales are up just 25-30% YOY. That much slower growth, and so we see a smaller percentage of the business. I predicted this would happen several years ago, but without knowledge of the iPad. It will continue to drop as a percentage of sales. When it gets to 10% a year or so from now, it will be a good question as to what Apple might want to do about it. My feeling is that it would be a good time to begin a well thought out limited clone program. Apple could then afford to lose some of that 10% of sales if it significantly increased OS X penetration.

I think well before "Macs" become such an insignificant part of Apple's profits that they start thinking about things like allowing cloning, Apple will have conceptually merged "iOS" and "OS X" to the point that we'll just be talking about "Apple computer sales."
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post #12 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

A clone program is an interesting idea, and one that makes great sense once they've squeezed what they can from the Mac. Your 10% target might make a good trigger point. Quite a nice insight Mel.

Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think well before "Macs" become such an insignificant part of Apple's profits that they start thinking about things like allowing cloning, Apple will have conceptually merged "iOS" and "OS X" to the point that we'll just be talking about "Apple computer sales."

My original idea was for 20%, but Apple's other growth areas are exploding so rapidly, that we may only have one year of it.

With PC growth, at least for the short term, halted, and even shrinking outside of a recession, it seems to me that HP, Dell and others would be falling over each other to sell "Macs". Apple's computers are the only category that's growing. If they can't get moderate, at least, tablet sales, they're in big trouble.

This should give Apple great leverage, which is what they didn't have the first time.
post #13 of 28
Even though I don't need it, I'm now a proud owner of the new 2011 13 inch Macbook Pro
post #14 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I think well before "Macs" become such an insignificant part of Apple's profits that they start thinking about things like allowing cloning, Apple will have conceptually merged "iOS" and "OS X" to the point that we'll just be talking about "Apple computer sales."

I dont see how how Mac OS and iOS could be merged into one unless we are talking about an Atrix like device that can switch UIs as the primary I/O changes.

That may very well be a killer feature in the future and I think Apple, of all companies, can pull it off with their long history of using the same efficient core OS with multiple UIs. In fact, Ill go out on a limb an say that until Apple shows everyone how its down it wont be done well.
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post #15 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

A clone program is an interesting idea, and one that makes great sense once they've squeezed what they can from the Mac. Your 10% target might make a good trigger point. Quite a nice insight Mel.

I don't understand how a clone program would benefit Apple in any way. If there were official clones, then no one would buy real Macs and Apple's profit margins on Macs would plummet--and Apple is interested in margins, not market share.

Besides, the market share of OS X in terms of overall PC sales is irrelevant since iOS devices work perfectly fine with Windows machines. Allowing clones simply erodes the cachet of the Mac brand; in effect, turning 'Mac' (cool, intuitive, friendly) into 'PC' (dorky, needlessly complex, frustrating).
post #16 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

When it gets to 10% a year or so from now, it will be a good question as to what Apple might want to do about it. My feeling is that it would be a good time to begin a well thought out limited clone program. Apple could then afford to lose some of that 10% of sales if it significantly increased OS X penetration.

I could understand a change in strategy when the Mac hits it's realistic marketshare ceiling ..... So why are you using some arbitry "revenue share" data point?
post #17 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

I could understand a change in strategy when the Mac hits it's realistic marketshare ceiling ..... So why are you using some arbitry "revenue share" data point?

Its about relative value. Companies and people do this all the time; if you can make more money focusing finite resources elsewhere you should do it.

That said, while Melgross strategy is sound I disagree Apple will move to Mac clones at or around Mac revenue being 10% of their total revenue. Personally I can see Apple licensing the AppleTV OS or licensing some iOS derivative to automakers before i can see licensing Mac OS.
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post #18 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Well, we can go by Jobs quote. That's where the no future for the Mac is coming from.

Are you referring to Jobs's truck quote? Well, its hard to deny that he is wrong. For example, Japan has already bypassed the PC, and most people there do the majority of their computing on their cellphones (this was even before the iPhone).

The problem is that people with little financial sense (which, unfortunately, most tech folks are) are trying to estimate Apple's future actions on the basis of finances.

Lets assume, for argument's sake, that the mac reduces to just 5% of Apple's revenues by this time next year. Lets assume further, that there is only about $1Bn in growth in the mac. It still makes ZERO financial sense for Apple to drop the mac.

1) Although the mac is only 5% of their revenues, it is still a HUGE number (it would be a Fortune 500 company by itself). How would you propose Apple would replace the $18Bn or so they are already making? Besides, Apple still has less than about 10% of the PC market. Even if the entire market is shrinking, the Mac still has a lot of growth left in it (as quarter after quarter has shown).

2) How could Apple invest any savings they would achieve from ending the Mac, and get better ROIs for their shareholders? I think this is literally impossible, because if it was, Apple wouldn't have $50Bn sitting in the bank.

3) Then there is the cross pollination. The vast majority of iOS technologies are first developed on the mac. A few of the new Mac technologies came from iOS (especially power savings related ones). Macs are needed for iOS devices (although this is unlikely to be true for too long), but, they will be needed for developing for iOS devices. That isn't a market Apple is going to simply give away.

The only way Apple gives up this revenue stream is if iOS is perfectly substitutable for the Mac. Well, if/when that happens, there will be no reason to complain if the Mac is killed, because iOS will do everything the Mac can. Until there is a large PC market, there will be a large Mac market.
post #19 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by tipoo View Post

Breaking news: Product sells more at start of life than end of life. Later at 7, the sky is blue.



Thank you.
post #20 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Driven by strong sales of the new Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Pro lineup, domestic Mac sales are estimated to have increased 47 percent year over year in the month of March.

The new estimates from the NPD Group were revealed Monday by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. NPD's estimates for U.S. sales put Apple up 20 percent year over year in January, 12 percent in February, and 47 percent in March, resulting in an average of 27 percent year over year for the quarter.

Actual Mac sales for the quarter will be known come Wednesday afternoon when Apple reveals its quarterly earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2011. Apple is scheduled to report its earnings after the market closes, and will hold a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern to discuss the results.

Munster said a 27 percent year over year increase in Mac sales would represent total sales of between 3.6 million and 3.7 million. The data shows Apple tracking on the high end of Wall Street expectations of about 3.6 million Macs sold in the quarter.

Mac sales growth slowed slightly in February, according to NPD figures, ahead of Apple's MacBook Pro lineup refresh. The new MacBook Pros were released in late February, packing Intel's latest Sandy Bridge processors and the new high-speed Thunderbolt data port.

But Mac sales rebounded strongly in March, the first full month in which the new MacBook Pros were available. Still, Munster noted that Mac revenue is estimated to account for just 21 percent of Apple's revenue in calendar year 2011.

The latest NPD data also showed U.S. iPod sales down 10 percent year over year. International iPod sales are a larger mix than international Mac sales, resulting in a slightly greater margin of error from domestic NPD data.

Drawing assumptions from the NPD data, Munster sees Apple reporting sales of between 9.8 million and 10.3 million iPods for its second quarter of fiscal 2011. That's in line with Wall Street's expectations of 10 million iPods for the three-month frame.

When you make a good product and it works correctly and the company is well established you have a winner.MBP are favorites over the ipads and MBA
post #21 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don’t see how how Mac OS and iOS could be merged into one unless we are talking about an Atrix like device that can switch UIs as the primary I/O changes.

That may very well be a “killer feature” in the future and I think Apple, of all companies, can pull it off with their long history of using the same efficient core OS with multiple UIs. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb an say that until Apple shows everyone how its down it won’t be done well.

It could be done by having the OS determine what it should load into any particular device by knowing what that device is, and what it can do. So a phone would have a very small screen and the least processing power, and would get the elements of the OS it needs and can use loaded. A Mac Pro would be at the other end of the spectrum, and would have everything loaded, including all the Touch features of the UI, as Apple makes available monitors for that purpose. People would get the choice as to how they would operate these machines.

Programs would also load whatever parts would work on a device. We would get more functionality as the devices get more powerful.

That's oversimplified, of course, but it surely would work.
post #22 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

I could understand a change in strategy when the Mac hits it's realistic marketshare ceiling ..... So why are you using some arbitry "revenue share" data point?

Everything is arbitrary. The Mac is still rising nicely in sales. So where exactly do you think its realistic marketshare ceiling is? If you're talking about marketshare as relating to PC's, then I offer the observation that it will likely keep increasing. So that wouldn't be a useful determining factor. But as a percentage of Apple sales in dollars, it would be. At some point, Apple could determine that it's low enough for them to not be concerned about it not growing if they can get the OS out to a much larger number of people. I'm saying that it could be when the percentage gets down to 10%.

I use that number, because lack of hardware sales growth from that wouldn't cause a noticeable change in Apple's overall growth, especially when larger OS sales, with their much higher margins, are taken into account.
post #23 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Its about relative value. Companies and people do this all the time; if you can make more money focusing finite resources elsewhere you should do it.

That said, while Melgross strategy is sound I disagree Apple will move to Mac clones at or around Mac revenue being 10% of their total revenue. Personally I can see Apple licensing the AppleTV OS or licensing some iOS derivative to automakers before i can see licensing Mac OS.

I'm not saying they will do it. I think it's possible that Jobs is deadset against doing something like that. But it would make sense.
post #24 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

Are you referring to Jobs's truck quote? Well, its hard to deny that he is wrong. For example, Japan has already bypassed the PC, and most people there do the majority of their computing on their cellphones (this was even before the iPhone).

The problem is that people with little financial sense (which, unfortunately, most tech folks are) are trying to estimate Apple's future actions on the basis of finances.

Lets assume, for argument's sake, that the mac reduces to just 5% of Apple's revenues by this time next year. Lets assume further, that there is only about $1Bn in growth in the mac. It still makes ZERO financial sense for Apple to drop the mac.

1) Although the mac is only 5% of their revenues, it is still a HUGE number (it would be a Fortune 500 company by itself). How would you propose Apple would replace the $18Bn or so they are already making? Besides, Apple still has less than about 10% of the PC market. Even if the entire market is shrinking, the Mac still has a lot of growth left in it (as quarter after quarter has shown).

2) How could Apple invest any savings they would achieve from ending the Mac, and get better ROIs for their shareholders? I think this is literally impossible, because if it was, Apple wouldn't have $50Bn sitting in the bank.

3) Then there is the cross pollination. The vast majority of iOS technologies are first developed on the mac. A few of the new Mac technologies came from iOS (especially power savings related ones). Macs are needed for iOS devices (although this is unlikely to be true for too long), but, they will be needed for developing for iOS devices. That isn't a market Apple is going to simply give away.

The only way Apple gives up this revenue stream is if iOS is perfectly substitutable for the Mac. Well, if/when that happens, there will be no reason to complain if the Mac is killed, because iOS will do everything the Mac can. Until there is a large PC market, there will be a large Mac market.

We could refer to his truck quote, but I was referring to his; "I would milk the Mac for all it was worth, and then go on to the next big thing." he was asked that after he had left Apple, and when Apple was in trouble.
post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The Mac is still rising nicely in sales. So where exactly do you think its realistic marketshare ceiling is?

I don't know where it is but I bet Apple does. There is a limit to the share that Apple can achieve while maintaining it's current price points. Plus there is a the whole, Windows entrenched, enterprise market. With PC ASP of around $700.00 i would guess that the Mac's max potential share is well south of 20%, possibly 10%.


Quote:
If you're talking about marketshare as relating to PC's, then I offer the observation that it will likely keep increasing.

Exactly! So why start to sacrifice profits and control by revisiting clones?
post #26 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

I don't know where it is but I bet Apple does. There is a limit to the share that Apple can achieve while maintaining it's current price points. Plus there is a the whole, Windows entrenched, enterprise market. With PC ASP of around $700.00 i would guess that the Mac's max potential share is well south of 20%, possibly 10%.


If you're talking about marketshare as relating to PC's, then I offer the observation that it will likely keep increasing.

Exactly! So why start to sacrifice profits and control by revisiting clones?[/QUOTE]

Apple's Mac sales this quarter was up 28% worldwide YOY. PC sales were down 3% YOY (estimated). So apple looks to have a long time before its marketshare rise stops, if it will.

But percentage of Apple's own sales are a different thing altogether. It's decreasing at a rapid rate, while increasing in absolute numbers. At some point, those two numbers will be optimum for Apple to begin a clone program if they want to do that.

You say that they would be giving up profit, but that's not exactly true. Margins on Macs are about 25%, but margins on software are closer to 80%. If Apple gives up some sales, but increases OS sales by 100% they would be pulling in a good profit on much less cost. If they get a 200% increase, that would be substantial. I read very often that people would buy an Apple OS machine if they were cheaper. Well, if Dell and HP made those machines, many people, and companies, would have their wish.

Apple is already increasing Mac sales to the enterprise by several hundred percent over the past couple of years. This would speed that adoption. It would speed it in areas of the world where Apple has little penetration, but a lot of people, such as Latin and South America.

Overall, this could lead to a good deal more profit for Apple. It's how MS has made its money.
post #27 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post


But percentage of Apple's own sales are a different thing altogether. It's decreasing at a rapid rate, while increasing in absolute numbers. At some point, those two numbers will be optimum for Apple to begin a clone program if they want to do that.

Perhaps I'm just being dumb.... But why should Apple wait until this "optimum" number?
Why should Mac revenue of 10% be more optimum than 20%.. or even 50%? Bearing in mind that (at current increases suggest) that tomorrow's 10% will be worth much more than yesterday's 50%.
post #28 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

Perhaps I'm just being dumb.... But why should Apple wait until this "optimum" number?
Why should Mac revenue of 10% be more optimum than 20%.. or even 50%? Bearing in mind that (at current increases suggest) that tomorrow's 10% will be worth much more than yesterday's 50%.

We have to look at the stock price here as well. If Apple decides to do this, it will affect sales. That will affect the stock price, possibly. If they start now, and Mac sales fail to continue their fairly steep climb in sales in anticipation, Apple could lose perhaps 5% of total sales. That would be more than made up by other increases. Still, it would be a big enough number to matter.

If the Mac drops to 10% of sales, it might affect total sales by 2.5%, much less.

Then, 2.5% is easier to make up with OS sales to OEM's than 5%. it would take less time, and affect lost profits to a greater extent.

My thoughts are that if it wouldn't affect Apple's balance sheet by a noticeable amount, it might be worth it. But if the effect was greater, it might not pay. We could even see Apple conceding most of their computer sales to others in the long run if they felt that OS sales were helping more than hurting. This could be possible if Apple wants to become more an electronics supplier of computing equipment that's mobile, which is likely the future for most computing devices outside of business and government offices.
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