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Wall Street: Apple is "magical growth story" in tech, defies gravity

post #1 of 39
Thread Starter 
Wall Street was impressed with Apple's record earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2011 on Wednesday, as one analyst calling the company a "magical growth story" and several firms raised their revenue estimates for future quarters.

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan analyst Mark Moskowitz issued a note to investors late Wednesday projecting that Apple's stock will rebound as investor confidence in Apple's continued growth is restored. The company's record-breaking second quarter results, which included 83 percent year over year revenue growth, "have gotten too big to ignore as Apple defies the law of gravity," Moskowitz said.

"In our view, Apple is the magical growth story in large-cap tech. The iPhone and Mac momentum should keep investors interested, particularly as light iPad units in the March quarter related to launch timing and not demand," he continued.

Apple handily surpassed J.P. Morgan's expectations for the second quarter of fiscal 2011, despite the fact that the firm's estimates were ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates.

Moskowitz reiterated his Dec. 2011 price target of $450 and raised estimates for Apple. "Bulls win," he declared, adding that "Apple squashed the recent parade of investor concerns."

In particular, Moskowitz pointed to Apple's improved gross margins and projection of just $200 million in negative impact to revenues from last month's Japan disaster. Apple posted 41.4 percent gross margins for the March quarter and projected 38 percent margins for the third quarter of the fiscal year. According to Moskowitz, some "bogey investors" had predicted Apple's margins would fall to 36 percent.

On Wednesday, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook told investors that the company hadn't been significantly impacted by supply disruption in Japan, though he did caution that the situation remains volatile.

Moskowitz's revised estimates see Apple generating $5.55 in Earnings Per Share next quarter, up from a previous estimate of $5.35. The windfall comes mainly from a better than expected gross margin, as Moskowitz actually revised revenues downward while projecting increased profits.



For the 2011 fiscal year, Moskowitz predicts $102.90 billion in revenue and $24.30 EPS. By comparison, the Street consensus prior to Wednesday's earnings call stood at $100.77 billion in revenue and $23.00 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Moskowitz indicated that he does not believe a "major refresh" of the iPhone will come this year. "There will be [an iPhone refresh], but it is not likely to be a form factor change," he said, cautioning that customer anticipation of an iPhone update could lead to a "summer malaise" in smartphone.

Last week, J.P. Morgan revised its estimates upwards, while accurately predicting that supply constraints would limit sales of the iPad 2. According to a recent report from one analyst, Apple intends to double shipments of the iPad in the third quarter of fiscal 2011.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanlye's Katy Huberty viewed Wednesday's results from Apple as providing a "line of sight" to Morgan Stanley's bull case of $50 EPS in 2013. Huberty's bull case projects shares of Apple will reach $540 by Nov. 2011, while her base case and bear case project $428 and $270 respectively.

"Apples March quarter results present several encouraging data points that support our thesis and increase the likelihood of our bull case price target," Huberty wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.



Citing staggering demand for the iPad 2, Apple's runaway growth in China and the company's commitment to replicating its China strategy in other emerging markets. Huberty also saw accelerating iPhone growth, above expectation margins and the reassurance that Apple remains largely unaffected by supply issues in Japan as strong positives for Apple.

Huberty did, however, air a short list of concerns that could hinder Apple's bull case. For instance, the lack of an iPhone launch in the June quarter could adversely affect unit sales. Also, Apple's indication that it does not plan to introduce an LTE iPhone this year could spark investor worries.

According to earlier notes from Huberty, four key under-appreciated growth catalysts could contribute to Apple's bull case: sales growth in the Asia Pacific region; expansion price points for the iPhone leading to increased smartphone market share; a "Smart TV" new product category and continued dominance in the tablet market.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster issued a note to clients Thursday saying, "We continue to be buyers of AAPL," and calling Apple's March quarter "monster" in spite of iPad 2 shortages.

Munster believes that iPad 2 supply and demand won't hit equilibrium until "late in the June quarter." He also expressed relief at the news that Apple had eliminated a "key risk factor in the June quarter" by avoiding supply issues in Japan.

Munster agreed with recent reports that Apple will ship the iPhone 5 in "the Sept. quarter (likely in the month of Sept.)."

The analyst noted that Piper Jaffray projects Apple's revenue will be down 3 percent quarter over quarter in June. According to Munster, Apple's revenues have gone up an average of 4 percent from the March quarter to the June quarter over the past ten years.

However, Munster explains Piper Jaffray's modeling breaks from the trend because it views $1.1 billion of Apple's revenue from the second quarter of fiscal 2011 as a temporary gain from a "1.7 million iPhone unit channel fill." When adjusted for the channel fill, Munster's predictions show Apple growing revenue by 1 percent quarter over quarter in June.

Given Apple's news that iPhone sales in China, a mostly pre-paid market for mobile phones, were up over 3 times last year's numbers, Munster sees continued expansion in pre-paid markets as an opportunity for Apple.

Munster raised his price target from $483 to $554 and maintained an Overweight rating on shares of Apple.
post #2 of 39
They need to revise their revenue between fiscal 2011 and fiscal 2012. It’s only about a 12% increase YoY.
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post #3 of 39
It's not magic. Apple innovates, executes and controls costs. Most oher major companies only focus on cost cutting
post #4 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SailorPaul View Post

It's not magic. Apple innovates, executes and controls costs. Most oher major companies only focus on cost cutting

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.
post #5 of 39
OMG. Did J.P. Morgan call Apple's growth "magical"? And the haters laughed when Steve used that word.

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post #6 of 39
Legitimate criticism is one thing, but I really am just waiting for the Apple haters to come out with "no it's not magic, it's technology" and "Apple doesn't devy gravity, it's stores sit on the ground like everyone else".

Not really exaggerating, I've heard very similar comments.
post #7 of 39
Apple downgraded?
Alex Gauna has zero credibility. He ought to be fined, jailed, and demoted for his incompetent, destructive, and baseless FUD.
post #8 of 39
So what is the latest on the amount of Apple's cash stash? Did anyone ask during the call?
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post #9 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

so what is the latest on the amount of apple's cash stash? Did anyone ask during the call?

65.8 billion, cash + securities.
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post #10 of 39
JP Morgan's 2011 adjusted predictions for the iPad will be very conservative.

They'll also miss on the Macs.
post #11 of 39
I don't know how many technology companies Ms. Huberty runs, but she's clearly someone Apple should hire to run their outfit.

Fancy Apple not launching a new iPhone when she thinks they should! Investors beware!

And just imagine! Apple's missing the boat on LTE phone technology and is about to get clobbered by more nimble competitors! If only they would listen to Ms. Huberty.

Why is it that there is always some latter-day Jeremiah piping up even when a company announces BRILLIANT results?

Why would you launch a new phone before it's needed? Is there some sign that the iPhone 4 is falling off in popularity? Well, is there?

And has some mysterious standardization occurred overnight in the 4G field so Apple can be sure LTE is the right approach? Well?

I think we can safely leave product strategies to Apple, and ignore Ms. Huberty on these particular matters.
post #12 of 39
The article's title somehow wants to imply that, logically, AAPL should be going down badly.

Rather, the converse is true. AAPL has been held down by short-sellers, out to make a quick profit, and, strangely enough, it is now even increasing *after* the announcement of stellar results.
post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by steftheref View Post

I don't know how many technology companies Ms. Huberty runs, but she's clearly someone Apple should hire to run their outfit...

I think we can safely leave product strategies to Apple, and ignore Ms. Huberty on these particular matters.

Do your homework! Katy Huberty is one of the smartest and best informed Apple bulls. Although she can argue her bull case at $540 (no change in multiple assumed), she's raising some legitimate concerns and possible upside surprises.

IOW, she's doing her job with great intelligence and her bold mobile presentation supports her thesis: Apple is monstrously positioned in mobile. (BTW, Apple at $540 will be worth near 1/2 a trillion $$$$.)

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...re/#more-55545
post #14 of 39
Now the haters will hate JP Morgan for using the M word.
post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by magicj View Post

No, it's magic. I popped open my iPad and it had little baby unicorns inside.

post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

It's the benefit of building things with an OS that is object oriented and that uses perhaps the best OO language around vs competition that still trying to scale the C based Win32 APIs everywhere.
post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

It's all about leadership. Steve Job is one of those rare individual who has a great vision, stubbornly focused on realizing that vision, strong willed enough to crush any opposition to that vision, and charismatic enough to get other people to share his vision.

That's the reason for Apple's success, and probably will cause Apple a great deal of transitional pain when someone else has to take over the position.
post #18 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by steftheref View Post

I don't know how many technology companies Ms. Huberty runs, but she's clearly someone Apple should hire to run their outfit.

Fancy Apple not launching a new iPhone when she thinks they should! Investors beware!

And just imagine! Apple's missing the boat on LTE phone technology and is about to get clobbered by more nimble competitors! If only they would listen to Ms. Huberty.

Why is it that there is always some latter-day Jeremiah piping up even when a company announces BRILLIANT results?

Why would you launch a new phone before it's needed? Is there some sign that the iPhone 4 is falling off in popularity? Well, is there?

And has some mysterious standardization occurred overnight in the 4G field so Apple can be sure LTE is the right approach? Well?

I think we can safely leave product strategies to Apple, and ignore Ms. Huberty on these particular matters.

Although I agree with you in general, some of Huberty's comments are reasonable (IMHO).

AAPL has been successful largely because they make the hard decision to take a long view. Holding off on iPhone 5 might well hurt them in the short term (in terms of market share and valuation), but in the long run, it is probably an excellent decision.
Wall Street does not reward the long view, which is part of the reason the world is in a financial mess.
post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

That's the reason for Apple's success, and probably will cause Apple a great deal of transitional pain when someone else has to take over the position.

I shudder at the very thought
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post #20 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

OMG. Did J.P. Morgan call Apple's growth "magical"? And the haters laughed when Steve used that word.

That's a good one, I'll remember this when I see another one of these stale cynical 'OMG it's magical!' jokes haters are regurgitating ad nauseam on other blogs. Now, if Google or Samsung could be so kind to say that the iPad has been revolutionary, we can finally all move along and the haters can go find some other snarky jokes to feel a little less insecure about their own gadget preferences.
post #21 of 39
There's one part of Apple's great success that disturbs me. And that's the fact that full-function computers are becoming a minority of their business.

If you look at the JP Morgan projections for 2012, they're projecting only about 19 million total Macs, but over 37 million iPad sales, 80 million iPhone sales and 37 million iPod sales.

While the gross margin on Macs is probably far greater than the lowered-priced devices, how much investment is Apple going to make in improvements to Mac hardware and the Mac-OS as it becomes such a relatively small part of their business? According to these projections, Macs will be only 21% of revenue in fiscal 2012. Phones will be 42%. iPads will be almost 19%.
post #22 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

There's one part of Apple's great success that disturbs me. And that's the fact that full-function computers are becoming a minority of their business.

If you look at the JP Morgan projections for 2012, they're projecting only about 19 million total Macs, but over 37 million iPad sales, 80 million iPhone sales and 37 million iPod sales.

While the gross margin on Macs is probably far greater than the lowered-priced devices, how much investment is Apple going to make in improvements to Mac hardware and the Mac-OS as it becomes such a relatively small part of their business? According to these projections, Macs will be only 21% of revenue in fiscal 2012. Phones will be 42%. iPads will be almost 19%.

21% of revenue sounds pretty healthy to me, and Mac marketshare is still on the rise, as it has been for over a decade. I think the profit margins on Apples desktop and laptop business are pretty sweet as well, so I don't see their iOS success as a problem for their computer business. They're not going to let that slide, risking that they lose iPhone/iPad market share some day in the future, with nothing to offset it.

If Apples Mac business keeps growing faster than the rest of the PC industry like it has been doing the last few years, Apple will be one of the biggest, if not _the_ biggest computer manufacturer in a few years. I think they are still very much aware of that and value their Mac business. The last generation MacBooks more or less show that, with great specifications, new technology (Thunderbolt), for a reasonable price (comparable to other competitors in the same segment).
post #23 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

There's one part of Apple's great success that disturbs me. And that's the fact that full-function computers are becoming a minority of their business.

If you look at the JP Morgan projections for 2012, they're projecting only about 19 million total Macs, but over 37 million iPad sales, 80 million iPhone sales and 37 million iPod sales.

While the gross margin on Macs is probably far greater than the lowered-priced devices, how much investment is Apple going to make in improvements to Mac hardware and the Mac-OS as it becomes such a relatively small part of their business? According to these projections, Macs will be only 21% of revenue in fiscal 2012. Phones will be 42%. iPads will be almost 19%.

I think you can rest assured that Steve understands that trucks are required to bring race cars
to market!
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post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

There's one part of Apple's great success that disturbs me. And that's the fact that full-function computers are becoming a minority of their business.

If you look at the JP Morgan projections for 2012, they're projecting only about 19 million total Macs, but over 37 million iPad sales, 80 million iPhone sales and 37 million iPod sales.

While the gross margin on Macs is probably far greater than the lowered-priced devices, how much investment is Apple going to make in improvements to Mac hardware and the Mac-OS as it becomes such a relatively small part of their business? According to these projections, Macs will be only 21% of revenue in fiscal 2012. Phones will be 42%. iPads will be almost 19%.

No need to worry, It's all based on OS X.
post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by xsu View Post

It's all about leadership. Steve Job is one of those rare individual who has a great vision, stubbornly focused on realizing that vision, strong willed enough to crush any opposition to that vision, and charismatic enough to get other people to share his vision.

That's the reason for Apple's success, and probably will cause Apple a great deal of transitional pain when someone else has to take over the position.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garamond View Post

I shudder at the very thought

One of the attributes of true leadership is to surround yourself with people whose capabilities excel where yours are deficient.

Steve has done that!

It is interesting to listen to the Apple earnings call:

Apple 2Q 2011 Earnings Call

Notice how Peter Oppenheimer and Tim Cook perform at one aspect of their jobs.

Impressive how both Peter and Tim control the conversation.

I was particularly impressed with how Tim Cook:

1) addressed the Japan tragedy, first from a human perspective, then form a business perspective.

2) addressed Samsung, first as a valued supplier, then from the uncomfortable position of suing them as a competitor.

I believe that Steve's biggest legacy will be the "Apple" team that he has assembled -- to assure that "Apple" company and image will prosper after he leaves.
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post #26 of 39
One analyst now represents all of Wall Street. Interesting. And there is nothing "magical" about sound fiscal policy and inspired design based on quality science.
post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

One of the attributes of true leadership is to surround yourself with people whose capabilities excel where yours are deficient.

Steve has done that!

Couldn't agree more, Dick. Cook was absolutely unflappable, despite an IED or two planted by a couple analysts along the course of the Q&A. It was hilarious to hear the initially confident voices of a couple more aggressive analysts trail away to mumbles as Tim's brief, calm replies left them totally flustered. Not a word wasted. Not a remark indicating anything other than that the question was anticipated, the issue well under management and a response well-prepared.

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post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SailorPaul View Post

It's not magic. Apple innovates, executes and controls costs. Most oher major companies only focus on cost cutting

Quote:
Originally Posted by magicj View Post

No, it's magic. I popped open my iPad and it had little baby unicorns inside.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

OMG. Did J.P. Morgan call Apple's growth "magical"? And the haters laughed when Steve used that word.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post

So what is the latest on the amount of Apple's cash stash? Did anyone ask during the call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

65.8 billion, cash + securities.

magic
magic
worst earthquake in decades and mearly a blip on the apple cash hoard
apple does one simple thing
they create a fantastic product
bring it on out and then they go back and make it better
in a hundred tiny ways . we notice that .
the innovations from that first product gets spread around to all its products like sony does .

apple now sells more in a 1/4 than they use to in a whole year
apple 1/4 profit is more that some past year totals

ad apple is has tied alll the parts together
all apples pods pads mbp mba tav mb mp all sync with each other
and we will at some point sync with each other
we as apple freaks already have a Facebook world pre built in .
ANDS when apple turns us on ....watch out . ....

apple will in 5 yrs have 90 peta bytes of capacity from its farms to play with
storm clouds so large and vast that companies will buy time from apple
apple will host its own parties on medical and or educational lessons .
picture 1.75 million. doctors world wide seeing new medical procedure done live from their ipads mbp iphones .
for free .

so by 2020 when all of apples magical devices are matured and tired . but still make money apple will be a software seller . apple will still sell the dreams apple will still allow us to make our own dreams
in a simple way
simple
yes
apple has made all its products simple to use
no app for that


peace


9


go apple
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post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

Those that build a solid foundation can build a taller building with more ease.

(trying to make some pithy comment and failing.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

OMG. Did J.P. Morgan call Apple's growth "magical"? And the haters laughed when Steve used that word.

That was J.P. Morgan. I read the word magic" and assumed it was J.K. Rowling.


Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

While the gross margin on Macs is probably far greater than the lowered-priced devices, how much investment is Apple going to make in improvements to Mac hardware and the Mac-OS as it becomes such a relatively small part of their business? According to these projections, Macs will be only 21% of revenue in fiscal 2012. Phones will be 42%. iPads will be almost 19%.

Besides what the others have said, Macs are growing at a great rate because of their other products. Its their ecosystem.

The best way to strengthen your ecosystem? Keep connecting them. The Mac line is going no where but up. Remember, this is the company that created mDP so it could have a smaller DP port for their Macs. This is the company that just integrated Intels LightPeak into the mDP port. This is the company that uses milled chunks of aluminium for their casings.
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post #30 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by brucep View Post

magic
magic
worst earthquake in decades and mearly a blip on the apple cash hoard
apple does one simple thing
they create a fantastic product
bring it on out and then they go back and make it better
in a hundred tiny ways . we notice that .
the innovations from that first product gets spread around to all its products like sony does .

apple now sells more in a 1/4 than they use to in a whole year
apple 1/4 profit is more that some past year totals

ad apple is has tied alll the parts together
all apples pods pads mbp mba tav mb mp all sync with each other
and we will at some point sync with each other
we as apple freaks already have a Facebook world pre built in .
ANDS when apple turns us on ....watch out . ....

apple will in 5 yrs have 90 peta bytes of capacity from its farms to play with
storm clouds so large and vast that companies will buy time from apple
apple will host its own parties on medical and or educational lessons .
picture 1.75 million. doctors world wide seeing new medical procedure done live from their ipads mbp iphones .
for free .

so by 2020 when all of apples magical devices are matured and tired . but still make money apple will be a software seller . apple will still sell the dreams apple will still allow us to make our own dreams
in a simple way
simple
yes
apple has made all its products simple to use
no app for that


peace


9


go apple

+++ Brilliant!

There is no app for that!
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post #31 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Those that build a solid foundation can build a taller building with more ease.

(trying to make some pithy comment and failing.)

Yeth!

Try thith:

"Houth built on a firm foundation, * it will latht -- oh yeth, oh yeth"

* not "thtinking, thinking thand...
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post #32 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

It is all about a very clearly defined mindset that has very little to do with business but which entirely informs every decision made. I think SJ has alluded to it many times when he talks about core values and about being the largest start up around. There are lots of other factors, of course but being able to stay true to your core values is at the heart of things. How Apple has managed to scale up production and sales to the point that they have and yet still be able to stay true to their core values is pretty close to magical, however, and the reason SJ has been recognized as Godfather of CEO's.
post #33 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

One of the attributes of true leadership is to surround yourself with people whose capabilities excel where yours are deficient.

Steve has done that!

It is interesting to listen to the Apple earnings call:

Apple 2Q 2011 Earnings Call

Notice how Peter Oppenheimer and Tim Cook perform at one aspect of their jobs.

...

I believe that Steve's biggest legacy will be the "Apple" team that he has assembled -- to assure that "Apple" company and image will prosper after he leaves.


Agree.

This is also how he ran another computer hardware / software company that you may have heard of, transforming it into an animated movie studio. His splitting his week 2 1/2 days each was a bit weird, though.
post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by magicj View Post

No, it's magic. I popped open my iPad and it had little baby unicorns inside.

AWWWWW.. That's so cuuuuuutte!!!
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post #35 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post

It is magic. Pretty much every other company of Apple's size can barely stay out of its own way, let alone innovate and create new multi-billion-dollar markets every few years. How do you keep a company of that size nimble and agile and willing to take risks? It has to be magic, because if there was a simple explanation everyone else would be doing it.

Well put. I spent years in a company that went from dynamic startup to established company to lumbering bureaucracy. Along the way, innovation gave way to a culture of not rocking the boat, with extreme risk aversion responsible for most decisions.

Not only does Apple execute really well, but their competitors' lack of vision and poor execution only serves to enhance Apple's mystique.

One thing's for sure - I wouldn't want to play chess (or poker) against AAPL senior management.
post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

65.8 billion, cash + securities.

That's a lotta cheese!
post #37 of 39
This phenomenal growth is real, their PE is still very low, unlike the speculative stocks of the dot com era.

They sure have good management because it's not easy to manage this type of growth..... some really smart people over there in Cupertino.
post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Granmastak View Post

This phenomenal growth is real, their PE is still very low, unlike the speculative stocks of the dot com era.

They sure have good management because it's not easy to manage this type of growth..... some really smart people over there in Cupertino.

I'll say their p/e is low. It looks to me, as of market close on April 21, like 16-17 will be the new 'normal' p/e for Apple. Here's a list of highest and lowest p/e's since Oct. 2009. Notice that for each quarter, p/e tends to peak in either the run-up to earnings or just after earnings.It's hard to imagine what catalysts between now and September would be able to raise it much beyond 18 if yesterday's blowout earnings couldn't do it.Is there any possibility that the qqq rebalancing is still having an effect?

Apple P/E:
(eps:9?)
Oct. 22,2009:22.80
Oct. 30,2009:20.94
Jan. 19,2010:23.90

(eps:10.24)
Jan. 27,2010:20.30
Feb. 4,2010:18.75
Apr 15,2010:24.30

(eps:11.78)
Apr. 23,2010:22.99
May 7, 2010:20.02
June 18,2010:23.26

(eps:13.28)
July 27,2010:19.88
Aug 24,2010:18.06
Oct. 18,2010:23.94

(eps:15.15)
Oct. 20,2010:20.50
Nov. 17,2010:19.83
Jan. 14,2011:23.00

(eps:17.92)
Jan 21,2011:18.23
Jan. 26,2011:19.19
Feb. 16,2011:20.26
Apr. 15,2011:18.27

(eps:20.98)
Apr. 21,2011:16.72
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshdean View Post

I'll say their p/e is low. It looks to me, as of market close on April 21, like 16-17 will be the new 'normal' p/e for Apple. Here's a list of highest and lowest p/e's since Oct. 2009. Notice that for each quarter, p/e tends to peak in either the run-up to earnings or just after earnings.It's hard to imagine what catalysts between now and September would be able to raise it much beyond 18 if yesterday's blowout earnings couldn't do it.Is there any possibility that the qqq rebalancing is still having an effect?

Apple P/E:
(eps:9?)
Oct. 22,2009:22.80
Oct. 30,2009:20.94
Jan. 19,2010:23.90

(eps:10.24)
Jan. 27,2010:20.30
Feb. 4,2010:18.75
Apr 15,2010:24.30

(eps:11.78)
Apr. 23,2010:22.99
May 7, 2010:20.02
June 18,2010:23.26

(eps:13.28)
July 27,2010:19.88
Aug 24,2010:18.06
Oct. 18,2010:23.94

(eps:15.15)
Oct. 20,2010:20.50
Nov. 17,2010:19.83
Jan. 14,2011:23.00

(eps:17.92)
Jan 21,2011:18.23
Jan. 26,2011:19.19
Feb. 16,2011:20.26
Apr. 15,2011:18.27

(eps:20.98)
Apr. 21,2011:16.72

I'd be willing to tolerate a 24!
"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

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"Swift generally gets you to the right way much quicker." - auxio -

"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
Reply
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