90% of the people calling "bogus" here are a) not looking far enough ahead, b) haven't checked the evidence (see the link above - real companies are working on this) and c) as in the next post below blows away are simply making straight-line projections that the future will just be more of the present.
Originally Posted by Lemon Bon Bon.
I noted the earlier post when someone noted Arm starting life out on the Acorn computers. Yes. Desktop computers. It pretty much kicked the snot out of Amiga and PC computers back then. It was very, very fast.
The stuff in the iPad 2. A 'second gen' chip...is what? 'Four' times faster? Twice as fast? Take your pick. It's significant. Try to imagine that evolution to 2013. The gpu power is 9 times faster now? Imagine PVR in 2013?
It's pretty academic saying what Intel is now or will be then. It's more a case of where Apple is heading with the iOS platform and frankly, the Mac OS platform is going to blow bubbles keeping pace with the growth of the iOS platform. And we clearly haven't seen the next few cards of Apple's iOS hand played yet. A tv? A bigger tablet? An expanded range of sizes... An iOS 'Air' or 'iMac'. Who knows.
An iPad can already do nine tenths of what I use my computer for...and do it very, very quickly. Having played with an iPad 2...it's very quick. Imagine this with a retina display in 2012? With yet another leap in cpu and gpu performance? Gulp.
Double it's size and you have a very workable iOS 'mini iMac' that takes iOS and Apple into the unchartered territory.
You only have to look at the video effects on the latest iPad 2. It's pretty astonishing in something so thin. The gpu performance is impressive. It's closing in on the PS3/xbox 360.
You could pretty much stick a keyboard on it now. Oh. You can dock with with a keyboard.
With the 'concurrent' WWDC in June featuring Mac Os X and iOS development in tandem...
You'd have to be in serious denial to see this is classic Apple at work here.
I can easily see a super thin iMac tablet equivalent. iOS apps dwarf those of the Mac OS. (Same thing but with the 'fat' cut off?)
Just look at how many iPod, iPhone, iPads have been sold. Getting on for 200 million? More? It eclipsed Mac total sales and installed base some time ago.
Never say 'never' with Apple. I remember when the Intel news dropped. They'll flog the Mac for all it's worth. But I think the ongoing amalgamation is happening before our eyes.
It will be very interesting to see where we end up in two years time.
The writing is on the wall.
Lemon Bon Bon.
Thanks to Lemon Bon Bon (interesting handle) for saving me a lot of writing. To concentrate on a point below.....
Originally Posted by xsu
The only way I can see a unified chip line up happening, is if Intel finally get their act together and design an x86 that can compete in the mobile arena.
Originally Posted by palegolas
Also, Apple is famous for not looking back, but instead looking forward. I'm sure they have great insight in the ARM vs x86 roadmaps, and their in house expertise too, for years to come.
Originally Posted by quinney
Better yet, how long would it take them if they started in 2008 (when Apple acquired PA semi)?
Originally Posted by jameskatt2
[Intel's new] 3D Transistors ... will double the processing speed of existing processors. And, they will simultaneously lower Intel processor power requirements to the point they are equivalent to ARM's.
Intel is very very aggressive since processors are their life-blood.
I can see, however, Apple going to Intel to fabricate Apple's A5+ ARM chips. After all, with 3D [transistor] processor and 22mm process technologies, Intel can make Apple's A5 and future ARM chips much much more powerful than non-Intel ARM chips. This will give Apple a huge lead on its competitors.
Originally Posted by Galbi
This is why Intel wont supply Apple with chips.
It's a conflict of interest for them. By making chips for Apple, Intel is indirectly killing its own market share in the PC business.
Lots of venerable companies are in trouble. Including both halves of the long-dominant WinTel duopoly.
Office and its file formats are the only things tethering many 10's of millions of MS's customers to its products. Even if Win 8 and all its variants all hit their marks and then some, MS has years of fighting to reclaim position in smart phones and tablets (which may have been supplanted by new device classes by then, introduced at least partially by guess who?). MS's biggest OEM, HP, is trying to re-invent itself in the Apple mode, controlling its own hardware and software stack with Web OS even as we talk about this.
As for Intel, neither MS nor
Apple has the slightest interest in Atom - that point where the x86' basic architectural flaws - a kludged design dating back to the original IBM PC - have finally become the limiting factor they always were destined to be - the computing power/power-for-speed roadblock that is keeping Atom from being a serious rival to ARM. And iDevices are the growth story for CPU's for the next decade most likely.
At this point then, x-86 volumes aside Apple is arguably already Intel's most important customer, both for their imprimatur (consider how openly Intel partnered with Apple on Thunderbolt even tho' it hopes the volume will eventually go into non-Apple PC's and peripherals) and the volume they could throw Intel's way with their mobile business.
So.... ....Intel wants to fab for Apple. Apple wants a fab with companies it's in less litigation with. Intel and Apple seem to be working fairly well together and there are few areas where they're in competition unlike Apple's former friend Google. And Intel's realizing Atom is likely to stay a bomb. And both Win 8 and iOS are Arm systems.
But Intel doesn't want to be reduced to a commodity chip vendor to stay in the game....
So.... ....Apple's ARM implementation via the chops of their recent acquisitions is arguably the best ARM around or close to it. Intel has gobs of talent, the most modern fabs and that new 3D tech noted above.
Another collaboration - much bigger than Thunderbolt - suggests itself. An Apple-Intel leveraged ARM design as suggested by Jameskatt2 could easily stand out in the commoditized ARM market.
Intel would be rescued from its Atom box canyon.
Apple would - by virtue of its IP contributions - get the best deal by far on the chips - and - collect royalties on every one of the chips sold to anyone else (i.e., Apple would be making money on the internals of the most advanced Android and Windows smart phones and tablets on the planet as well as the highest margins on its own). They would also ensure that Intel's future iterations would be designed with their specific new device designs in mind.
All cotton candy thinking for the moment, but Intel really needs to make some kind of out of the box move. Atom's not cutting the mustard.