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Microsoft confirms $8.5B acquisition of communications service Skype - Page 5

post #161 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Since neither you nor Solipsism have any notion as to how many computer devices are owned by each unique individual it's a stretch to claim as fact that there could not possibly be one billion windows users. There's obviously sources that indicate there may be.

Then post one.

If you plan to refer to the article you previously posted then based on your logic Apple reaching 10 billion App Store downloads should not exclude the possibility of 10 billion unique iOS-baed iDevice sold to 10 billion individual users.
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post #162 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Since neither you nor Solipsism have any notion as to how many computer devices are owned by each unique individual it's a stretch to claim as fact that there could not possibly be one billion windows users. There's obviously sources that indicate there may be.

Of course you could "just make stuff" up to dispute that.

Not trying to start any disagreement, but some posters here would do better to say "I didn't know that" or "news to me" than try to find way to support an off-the-cuff remark that doesn't have sources to support it.

We all do better when we find out things we didn't know thru posts from our fellow forum members.

I don't really give a shit. The original argument was that MS has two benefits from buying Skype. The logic behind both was horseshit... and don't tell me you disagree... otherwise I'll know you're also full of shit.
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post #163 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Then post one.

If you plan to refer to the article you previously posted then based on your logic Apple reaching 10 billion App Store downloads should not exclude the possibility of 10 billion unique iOS-baed iDevice sold to 10 billion individual users.

Good try Solipsism

I never said it was proof as you well know. I posted that they are sources that even you have seen that indicate more than a billion computers are in use. The one I mentioned was two years old, so the number would already well on it's way to the 2 billion target in 2014, perhaps 1.4 billion or so now if they are correct. Add that source to the 1 billion quote that Ballmer gave even earlier than that. Your guess as to how many involve unique users is just that. . . A guess, not a fact.

If you have a source that says otherwise, post it.
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post #164 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I don't really give a shit. The original argument was that MS has two benefits from buying Skype. The logic behind both was horseshit... and don't tell me you disagree... otherwise I'll know you're also full of shit.

No, I don't disagree with that. I'd just rather call people out when they're obviously posting made up stuff. In this case there's some support for his 1 billion statement so that particular statement may not be made up.

I'm not commenting on the overall discussion since I don't know any facts about Microsoft's plans. On the surface my opinion would be they overpaid, but those are supposedly smarter guys than me, so what do I know.
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post #165 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Good try Solipsism

I never said it was proof as you well know. I posted that they are sources that even you have seen that indicate more than a billion computers are in use.

Its not just a good try, its winning. Tiger blood!

Seriously, you cant be this dumb as to keep interchanging computers in use and unique users as if they are the same fucking thing. You have to be trolling, and for that you have made the ignore list.
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post #166 of 175
What logical reason could MS have in buying Skype for $8.5 billion?

$3 billion... maybe... but even then ROI is risky and won't see daylight for another 7 years or longer.

... but $8.5 BILLION??!!

The only ROI that comes from an expense this large is keeping Skype out of the hands of Google. 170 million active users is very beneficial to Google... not so much to Microsoft... and Skype is a service that MS could have built on their own for much much cheaper and tied into their existing userbase of 300 million.

Google could have put MS out of its misery in the mobile space with the acquisition of Skype. The road is much more clear for MS with Skype in their hands.
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post #167 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I'm not commenting on the overall discussion since I don't know any facts about Microsoft's plans. On the surface my opinion would be they overpaid, but those are supposedly smarter guys than me, so what do I know.

Steve Jobs is a smarter guy than any of us... I'm not so sure I could say that about Ballmer... regardless, you're still entitled to an opinion.

... and who the fuck is talking facts.
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post #168 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

1) You are the one that stated addition of. Maybe thats not what you meant, but that is what you wrote.

2) Most of the worlds population dont own a PC. Figure that MS sold 200M or so copies of Windows 7 (MS fastest selling OS) for corporate and consumer use. Then figure most people who use a PC at work and at home arent using the same Windows license. That will cut down your user base compared to looking at licensing numbers numbers alone. But those arent installed base, just sales. You cant include every single Windows license ever sold because most of them arent in use any longer. That leaves me with an estimate closer to 500-600 million users with an average life cycle of 3 years. So where do you get there are 1 billion active Windows PC users?

Not just 1 billion Windows PC users, but 1 billion PCs with video cameras and broadband connections! And 1 billion users with Windows Live accounts. FaceTime is DOOMED!

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post #169 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

1) You are the one that stated addition of. Maybe thats not what you meant, but that is what you wrote.

That is what I wrote and that is what I meant?

The question was "Skype is already on multiple platforms, what do you think the Microsoft buyout is going to change?"

I'll quote my response.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

...the addition of 300+ million active users to the Skype userbase...

I understand people thought I was saying the potential number of users will expand because of the Windows user base, but I clarified that I was talking about active Messenger users being added to Skype.

I suppose a cleaner way of saying it from a 3rd person view would be the combined user base will expand, but from Skype's perspective they are getting more users.

The number is actually somewhere between 206 and 330 million as I didn't account for users that actively use Skype as well as Messenger. My point is the still the same though.

The user base of "Skype Messenger" will be bigger than that of Skype by itself.



Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

So... where do you get there are 1 billion active Windows PC users?

I did the same thing you did. I used the facts we have and extrapolated.

You set the average PC lifespan at 3 years. If you increase that lifespan you start approaching a billion.

You also had the number of users as less than the number of PC licenses.

If you live in a 1st world country, a relatively affluent neighborhood or work in IT it seems that every person has two PCs.

If you have all three it seems that people are surrounded by PCs (plus a smartphone and a tablet for good measure)!

This could potentially be the other way around (i.e. more users than PCs) if you start looking at families sharing the same PC or emerging markets.

Did you actually get these variables from some research or are they estimates?

You also didn't seem to include piracy (in 2009 - no info on what it is now) which is put at around 79% in China, 56% in Brazil and 20% in the United States. There were even some countries with rates >90% (Armenia, Bangladesh, Georgia, Moldova, Zimbabwe).
post #170 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I don't really give a shit. The original argument was that MS has two benefits from buying Skype. The logic behind both was horseshit... and don't tell me you disagree... otherwise I'll know you're also full of shit.

I commented on changes to Skype, not benefits for Microsoft. I wonder if you even read my posts before replying

The first is the larger user base when it is combined with Messenger.
The second is financial backing.

If you feel you can refute those two points then go ahead. Otherwise you're just wasting your time making an ass of yourself.


EDIT: Never mind. I see you're now quoting my numbers so I'm going to assume you've finally worked it out.
post #171 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

I commented on changes to Skype, not benefits for Microsoft. I wonder if you even read my posts before replying

The first is the larger user base when it is combined with Messenger.
The second is financial backing.

If you feel you can refute those two points then go ahead. Otherwise you're just wasting your time making an ass of yourself.


EDIT: Never mind. I see you're now quoting my numbers so I'm going to assume you've finally worked it out.

here let me fix that:

"I don't really give a shit. The original argument was that Skype has two benefits by being bought by MS. The logic behind both was horseshit... and don't tell me you disagree... otherwise I'll know you're also full of shit."

Either way still horseshit.
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post #172 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

here let me fix that:

"I don't really give a shit. The original argument was that Skype has two benefits by being bought by MS. The logic behind both was horse shit... and don't tell me you disagree... otherwise I'll know you're also full of shit."

Either way still horseshit.

I don't want you to fix previous comments, I want you to use you head!

You're wasting everyones time by just sitting in the background and intermittently flinging smart ass remarks around.

I'm not after validation, so I don't mind if you agree with me or not. However, if you have a point to make, I just want you man the eff up and make it!

We'll stick with "benefits" instead of "changes" because in the context of the comment those changes were seen as beneficial.

The first is that the Skype will benefit from the extra users when combined with Messenger.

The second is that Skype will benefit from the external funding. My reasoning is that Skype have (had?) hundreds of millions of dollars of debt and consistently lost money. I couldn't see how they could continue that business model in perpetuity without an injection of funds.


If you feel you can refute those two points then I want you to go ahead and refute. Don't just call everything "horse shit" and run away. I'm most certainly not trying to change your mind.
post #173 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

You also had the number of users as less than the number of PC licenses.
This could potentially be the other way around (i.e. more users than PCs) if you start looking at families sharing the same PC or emerging markets.

Which is the point that gets Solipsism in a tizzy. It's common for several unique users to share one single computer. He insists on counting solely in the other direction, one user having multiple computers. For a smart guy he sometimes gets waylaid, focused on one thing so intently that he can't hear what someone else is saying.

And honestly why distract the discussion by arguing about a point that can't be proven either way?

Flipping around the net I can see that no one is clear on what Microsoft's intentions are with this new purchase. For that amount of money I'm surprised the plan, or at least the potential, wouldn't be more obvious.
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post #174 of 175
And another one bites the dust..

Stupid. Stupid Microsoft.
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post #175 of 175
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Flipping around the net I can see that no one is clear on what Microsoft's intentions are with this new purchase. For that amount of money I'm surprised the plan, or at least the potential, wouldn't be more obvious.

Agreed. It's easy to see why they purchased Skype, it's not so easy to see how they came up with the $8B valuation.

A deal with with Facebook would pretty much guarantee them as the defacto cross device communications standard, but I still don't think that accounts for the $8B.

They could use Skype's hooks into the telephony network to quickly build a worldwide Google Voice competitor... then on WPx if they throw in built in messaging, video chat and VOIP they would pretty much have a product that could totally revolutionize the telecommunications industry... but I doubt the carriers would ever let them get away with it.
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