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Supply chain data shows Apple sales up 113% in April

post #1 of 11
Thread Starter 
Sales within Apple's overseas supply chain show the iPhone maker continuing its tremendous growth in the month of April, with sales increasing 113 percent year over year.

Sales estimates are determined through the "Apple Barometer" tracked by Ticonderoga Securities, created earlier this year to track monthly sales trends in the Taiwan tech supply chain. Apple's presumed 113 percent year over year growth remains strong, though it is less than the 141 percent that analyst Brian White tracked in March.

The Apple Barometer shows that sales in April over the last six years have, on average, increased 0.4 percent month over month, and in 2010 they rose by 4.4 percent. However, in 2011, sales decreased by 7.5 percent month over month.

The larger-than-average decrease can be attributed to a huge March, where component supplier sales were said to be up 35 percent month over month. That was significantly better than the six-year historical increase of 24 percent month over month in March.

"Therefore, despite a weaker than normal April this year, the Apple Barometer can nearly deliver average sequential sales growth performance in (the second quarter of 2011) versus historical metrics," White wrote in a note to investors on Wednesday.

Apple's outlook for the June quarter, issued in its quarterly earnings report last month, called for a sequential sales decline of 7 percent. That would be much weaker than Apple's eight-year average, over which the company has seen a typical 5 percent sequential increase in the June quarter.



So far in 2011, the Apple Barometer has shown year over year sales increases of 150 percent in January, and 172 percent in February. It tracks sales trends in industries including LCD panel makers, touchscreen providers, and printed circuit board fabricators.

White and Ticonderoga Securities noted that the barometer indicates a trend in sales, but added that there is a "lag" between when suppliers recognize sales and Apple ships a product to its customers. The barometer is portrayed as a "reliable indicator of sales trends," a method more dependable than tracking a single company like Foxconn, which generates 75 percent of its sales from companies other than Apple.

Instead, the proprietary index consists of Taiwan-based suppliers who derive a significant portion of their revenues from Apple, which White estimates contributes between 50 percent and 60 percent of the total revenue generated in the barometer.
post #2 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Sales within Apple's overseas supply chain show the iPhone maker continuing its tremendous growth in the month of April, with sales increasing 113 percent year over year.

Sales estimates are determined through the "Apple Barometer" tracked by Ticonderoga Securities, created earlier this year to track monthly sales trends in the Taiwan tech supply chain. Apple's presumed 113 percent year over year growth remains strong, though it is less than the 141 percent that analyst Brian White tracked in March.

The Apple Barometer shows that sales in April over the last six years have, on average, increased 0.4 percent month over month, and in 2010 they rose by 4.4 percent. However, in 2011, sales decreased by 7.5 percent month over month.

The larger-than-average decrease can be attributed to a huge March, where component supplier sales were said to be up 35 percent month over month. That was significantly better than the six-year historical increase of 24 percent month over month in March.

"Therefore, despite a weaker than normal April this year, the Apple Barometer can nearly deliver average sequential sales growth performance in (the second quarter of 2011) versus historical metrics," White wrote in a note to investors on Wednesday.

Apple's outlook for the June quarter, issued in its quarterly earnings report last month, called for a sequential sales decline of 7 percent. That would be much weaker than Apple's eight-year average, over which the company has seen a typical 5 percent sequential increase in the June quarter.



So far in 2011, the Apple Barometer has shown year over year sales increases of 150 percent in January, and 172 percent in February. It tracks sales trends in industries including LCD panel makers, touchscreen providers, and printed circuit board fabricators.

White and Ticonderoga Securities noted that the barometer indicates a trend in sales, but added that there is a "lag" between when suppliers recognize sales and Apple ships a product to its customers. The barometer is portrayed as a "reliable indicator of sales trends," a method more dependable than tracking a single company like Foxconn, which generates 75 percent of its sales from companies other than Apple.

Instead, the proprietary index consists of Taiwan-based suppliers who derive a significant portion of their revenues from Apple, which White estimates contributes between 50 percent and 60 percent of the total revenue generated in the barometer.

April more of a challenge because of strong iPad roll out last April, I suspect.

Where's the love. If Apple keeps it up and the stock lags, there is potential for huge Private Equity takeout once Apple gets $100 Billion in cash.
post #3 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Sales within Apple's overseas supply chain show the iPhone maker continuing its tremendous growth in the month of April, with sales increasing 113 percent year over year.

Sales estimates are determined through the "Apple Barometer" tracked by Ticonderoga Securities, created earlier this year to track monthly sales trends in the Taiwan tech supply chain. Apple's presumed 113 percent year over year growth remains strong, though it is less than the 141 percent that analyst Brian White tracked in March.

The Apple Barometer shows that sales in April over the last six years have, on average, increased 0.4 percent month over month, and in 2010 they rose by 4.4 percent. However, in 2011, sales decreased by 7.5 percent month over month.

The larger-than-average decrease can be attributed to a huge March, where component supplier sales were said to be up 35 percent month over month. That was significantly better than the six-year historical increase of 24 percent month over month in March.

"Therefore, despite a weaker than normal April this year, the Apple Barometer can nearly deliver average sequential sales growth performance in (the second quarter of 2011) versus historical metrics," White wrote in a note to investors on Wednesday.

Apple's outlook for the June quarter, issued in its quarterly earnings report last month, called for a sequential sales decline of 7 percent. That would be much weaker than Apple's eight-year average, over which the company has seen a typical 5 percent sequential increase in the June quarter.



So far in 2011, the Apple Barometer has shown year over year sales increases of 150 percent in January, and 172 percent in February. It tracks sales trends in industries including LCD panel makers, touchscreen providers, and printed circuit board fabricators.

White and Ticonderoga Securities noted that the barometer indicates a trend in sales, but added that there is a "lag" between when suppliers recognize sales and Apple ships a product to its customers. The barometer is portrayed as a "reliable indicator of sales trends," a method more dependable than tracking a single company like Foxconn, which generates 75 percent of its sales from companies other than Apple.

Instead, the proprietary index consists of Taiwan-based suppliers who derive a significant portion of their revenues from Apple, which White estimates contributes between 50 percent and 60 percent of the total revenue generated in the barometer.

Ticonderoga has a $612 price target on AAPL yet shares continue to flounder in the 345-350 range. Go figure!
post #4 of 11
By "up 113%" do they mean they are 113% of last year's values (which is really "up 13%") or 213% of last year's values?
post #5 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by kube View Post

By "up 113%" do they mean they are 113% of last year's values (which is really "up 13%") or 213% of last year's values?

The phrase up 113% is very clear. If you choose to ask whether they mean something they didn't say, that's your problem. Up 113% means up one hundred and thirteen percent.

You say "113% of last year's values (which is really "up 13%")" which means you know exactly what up (some percentage means). Go with it.
post #6 of 11
edit: Pipped by cameronj.
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post #7 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

The phrase up 113% is very clear. If you choose to ask whether they mean something they didn't say, that's your problem. Up 113% means up one hundred and thirteen percent.

You say "113% of last year's values (which is really "up 13%")" which means you know exactly what up (some percentage means). Go with it.

Hang on, kube has a perfectly valid point that the writer's terminology is confusing and misleading. A quick glance as the headline implies a more than doubling of sales, which is simply incorrect but is what is written. Don't go supporting sloppy writing and claim that the reader should figure it out. That path leads to a world of constant miscommunication, errors, and misunderstandings.
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post #8 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

Hang on, kube has a perfectly valid point that the writer's terminology is confusing and misleading. A quick glance as the headline implies a more than doubling of sales, which is simply incorrect but is what is written. Don't go supporting sloppy writing and claim that the reader should figure it out. That path leads to a world of constant miscommunication, errors, and misunderstandings.

I think the headline is clear, and cameronj points out how kube convolutes his point by asking what “up 113%” means just to then say “up 13%”. I suppose I should then ask what kube means by “up 13%” and then assume that means “up 0.13%”, which would get you to inquire what I mean by “up 0.13%” for which you assume means “up 0.013%” and so on.

One could argue that the headline is axiomatically incorrect and that they really only have increased sales by 13% YoY (which seems paltry for Apple) but the headline, as written, is clear.
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post #9 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I think the headline is clear, and cameronj points out how kube convolutes his point by asking what “up 113%” means just to then say “up 13%”. I suppose I should then ask what kube means by “up 13%” and then assume that means “up 0.13%”, which would get you to inquire what I mean by “up 0.13%” for which you assume means “up 0.013%” and so on.

One could argue that the headline is axiomatically incorrect and that they really only have increased sales by 13% YoY (which seems paltry for Apple) but the headline, as written, is clear.

Hey I am no mathematician but wouldn't the correct phrase have been 'up 13% (of last years sales level)', not 'up 113%'? That latter is pretty clear as meaning on sales of $100 last year they were $213 this year. Unless this is another of those American English versus British English things in which case I will hold my tongue

p.s. I wish they had been 'up 113%' maybe AAPL would friggin well move up!

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post #10 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Hey I am no mathematician but wouldn't the correct phrase have been 'up 13% (of last years sales level)', not 'up 113%'? That latter is pretty clear as meaning on sales of $100 last year they were $213 this year. Unless this is another of those American English versus British English things in which case I will hold my tongue

p.s. I wish they had been 'up 113%' maybe AAPL would friggin well move up!

.

Jesus.... yes Apple increased sales more than double! That's what the article says, it's also what common sense says! 13% growth year over year? Not very impressive. Hard to imagine how Apple could be selling more than twice as many phones than last year when suppliers are only seeing 10% more sales, right?

Sales are UP one hundred and thirteen percent from last year. Yes, that means that these measurements are MORE THAN TWICE as high as last year.

When did everyone get so dumb?
post #11 of 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by Programmer View Post

Hang on, kube has a perfectly valid point that the writer's terminology is confusing and misleading. A quick glance as the headline implies a more than doubling of sales, which is simply incorrect but is what is written. Don't go supporting sloppy writing and claim that the reader should figure it out. That path leads to a world of constant miscommunication, errors, and misunderstandings.

The writing is very clear. Peoples' brains, apparently, are sloppy.

Yes, Apple has (of course) increased purchases from these companies more than double compared to last year. Have you checked out iPhone/iPad sales numbers recently? Sheesh!
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