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Unexpectedly

post #1 of 235
Thread Starter 
I supposed this could have gone into the thread about Keynesian delusions, but since that thread has been reduced to people being harassed about their religion or caricatures about being Libertarian, I figured a new thread was fine.

UNEXPECTEDLY............why was it not expected.... because the Keynesian predictions and government statistical models declared it ought to be different and thus reality was not expected.

Michael Barone summarizes Glenn Reynolds....


Quote:
As megablogger Glenn Reynolds, aka Instapundit, has noted with amusement, the word "unexpectedly" or variants thereon keep cropping up in mainstream media stories about the economy.

"New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed," reported CNBC.com May 25.

"Personal consumption fell," Business Insider reported the same day, "when it was expected to rise."

"Durable goods declined 3.6 percent last month," Reuters reported May 25, "worse than economists' expectations."

"Previously owned home sales unexpectedly fall," headlined Bloomberg News May 19.

"U.S. home construction fell unexpectedly in April," wrote the Wall Street Journal May 18.

Those examples are all from the last two weeks. Reynolds has been linking to similar items since October 2009.

Mainstream media may finally be catching up. "The latest economic numbers have not been good," David Leonhardt wrote in the May 26 New York Times. "Another report showed that economic growth at the start of the year was no faster than the Commerce Department initially reported -- 'a real surprise,' said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics."

Which raises some questions. As Instapundit reader Gordon Stewart, quoted by Reynolds on May 17, put it, "How many times in a row can something happen unexpectedly before the experts start to, you know, expect it? At some point, shouldn't they be required to state the foundation for their expectations?"

We can add a few new examples....

'Double-Dip' in Housing Prices Even Worse Than Expected
- OMG, it wasn't what was expected thus UNEXPECTED!

U.S. Economy: Confidence Unexpectedly Drops to Six-Month Low - There's that word again!

When does the media stop covering from Obama and start reporting the reality of our economic problems rather than just how they differ "unexpectedly" from the government position?

Let's hope it is soon. Hope and Change is what we will be wishing for in 2012! It just won't be the same hope and change as we got in 2008.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #2 of 235
I remember the widespread unexpectedness for the past couple of years. Haven't been paying close enough attention recently to know it was still going on.

I think it provides good context for this statement:

The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design. from Nobel prize-winning economist Friedrich Hayek's appropriately titled book "The Fatal Conceit"

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #3 of 235
Yes. If only America had slashed its spending like Britain.

British economy shrinks unexpectedly.

British Chamber of Commerces cuts growth forecast unexpectedly.

And of course spending cuts are really going GREAT GUNS in Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

post #4 of 235
But, but, we can't give money to the freeloading poor who will immediately spend it all, thereby increasing demand and actually stimulating the economy! SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

THANK YOU JESUS!

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #5 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumbo Jumbo View Post

Yes. If only America had slashed its spending like Britain.

British economy shrinks unexpectedly.

British Chamber of Commerces cuts growth forecast unexpectedly.

And of course spending cuts are really going GREAT GUNS in Ireland, Greece and Portugal.


To bad we are involved in 3 wars now which we really do not need financially.Britain was never involved in 3 wars also. That is where this money is going. One billion dollars a month for a war in Afghanistan which is a complete waste!
post #6 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

But, but, we can't give money to the freeloading poor who will immediately spend it all, thereby increasing demand and actually stimulating the economy! SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

THANK YOU JESUS!


That depends on what you mean by "giving" money to the poor. If you let the the poor, middle and upper classes keep more of their money, the economy does expand. This has been proven at least three times in the last 50 years. The complement to this is the supply-side component. Allowing business to expand leads to increased hiring, which positively affects economic growth.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #7 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumbo Jumbo View Post

Yes. If only America had slashed its spending like Britain.

British economy shrinks unexpectedly.

British Chamber of Commerces cuts growth forecast unexpectedly.

And of course spending cuts are really going GREAT GUNS in Ireland, Greece and Portugal.



Two points: 1) This is not surprising. A large cut in spending reduces money in the system, so short-term reductions in growth can be expected...especially in a deep recession. 2) What you're arguing is that government spending is the main factor in economic growth (right?). This is not true. What's happening is that the government is propping up a broken system with massive amounts of taxpayer dollars. The underlying problems are overspending and overtaxation. Short-term stimulus and long-term high spending only band-aid the problem while plunging nations into debt. (see: United States. We're experts at that).

To illustrate the above, consider this hypothetical: What would happen to economic growth if we had a tax rate of zero percent? Answer? Growth would explode, because people and businesses would buy and invest. Yes, yes...the deficit and debt would explode, which is why this scenario is impossible. But it illustrates how tax cuts affect economic behavior. It also illustrates the simple notion that letting people keep more of what they earn is good for the economy.
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post #8 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvfox View Post

To bad we are involved in 3 wars now which we really do not need financially.Britain was never involved in 3 wars also. That is where this money is going. One billion dollars a month for a war in Afghanistan which is a complete waste!

It's not where the money is going, though I agree it's expensive. Defense spending accounts for 20% of our budget. If we eliminated all defense spending, the deficit would go from 1.5 trillion to 900 billion. With the exception of the TARP-influenced deficit, that's twice as large as Bush's largest.

The problem is domestic spending in the form of entitlements, waste, federal agency expenses/size/scope, and low economic growth. The prescription is spending cuts and a new tax code...one that is simplified, fair, impossible to avoid, and lets people keep more of their own money.
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #9 of 235
Two quick and dirty examples, marv:

77,000 Fed employees earn more than governors:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/nato-formal...100141091.html

Number of limos soars under Obama:

http://www.iwatchnews.org/2011/05/31...ed-under-obama
I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #10 of 235
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumbo Jumbo View Post

Yes. If only America had slashed its spending like Britain.

British economy shrinks unexpectedly.

British Chamber of Commerces cuts growth forecast unexpectedly.

And of course spending cuts are really going GREAT GUNS in Ireland, Greece and Portugal.


I'll be happy to read any articles or sources you have that predicted no pain associated with the cuts or a benefit from the cuts that has not followed as predicted.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #11 of 235
More unexpectedness: Private sector job growth slumps in May

Quote:
Private-sector payroll growth slowed sharply in May, coming in far below expectations and falling to the lowest level in eight months, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The ADP Employer Services report showed private employers added a scant 38,000 jobs last month, while April private payrolls were revised down to an increase of 177,000 from the previously reported 179,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a gain of 175,000 jobs for May.

Oops.

I guess we're back to net negative job growth (the economy needs to create about 150K-200K a month just to stay even).

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #12 of 235
I'm still on hiatus, but I can't not post this.

Unexpectedly (for supply-siders), cutting taxes did not magically increase revenue in every state that tried it.


Of course, for those of us who understand this aspect of economics, this result wasn't unexpected at all.
post #13 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

If you let the the poor, middle and upper classes keep more of their money, the economy does expand.


No, it doesn't.
post #14 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

If you let the the poor, middle and upper classes keep more of their money, the economy does expand.

The bigger (long-term) economic growth effect will come from tax cuts for the wealthier because they have the highest propensity to save.

Of course its better for everyone to keep more of their own money and do with it what they choose to do. I am just speaking of the relative overall economic impact.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #15 of 235

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #16 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Let's just print more money out of thin air.

That'll fix everything.

I'm waiting for the "unexpected*" rise in prices.


*This is already happening already of course but it's being hidden or masked in a variety of ways. But the man on the street knows its happening. Food is one area where there's already been a lot of price inflation. One simple example is OJ. In 2010 reduced its 64oz carton to 59oz but kept the same price level. That's about an 8% price increase. Just a tad more than the "official" rate of inflation (approx 1.5% to 3.0%.) Clothing is another. Energy costs also. Commodities tell the real story of course.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #17 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

*This is already happening already of course but it's being hidden or masked in a variety of ways.

The evil businesses are raising their prices out of pure spite and greed. Didn't you know?

It has nothing to do with the government increasing the money supply by printing money out of thin air, which in turn devalues the dollar. Nothing at all.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #18 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

The evil businesses are raising their prices out of pure spite and greed. Didn't you know?

It has nothing to do with the government increasing the money supply by printing money out of thin air, which in turn devalues the dollar. Nothing at all.

Well I know. But I was trying to put out my best conservative, free-market "talking points" and hope no one noticed.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #19 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

But, but, we can't give money to the freeloading poor who will immediately spend it all, thereby increasing demand and actually stimulating the economy! SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

SUPPLY SIDE OR NO SIDE!

THANK YOU JESUS!

I would make the argument that what we need are jobs. I would also argue that America needs to make things once again. We need to make things.

Wealth redistribution is not a solve all for any economy here, in Europe or anywhere else.

We need to make things.

We have decided to allow ourselves to outsource far too much of who we are. Now we are much less than we were once. Ohh and there seems to be less income for the ever hungry to spend government.

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #20 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I would also argue that America needs to make things once again. We need to make things.

We do.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #21 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

We do.

Ok, we need to make MORE things than we do now. Better to be an exporter than an importer.
NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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NoahJ
"It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err." - Mahatma Gandhi
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post #22 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

We do.

Where do you live?

I have a reason for asking this.

Secondly I would suggest that yes when we build helicopters, tanks, ships, weapons systems, chemicals, aerospace etc. with very high price tags this is where we get the high figure of our "manufacturing" in this country. It is every other sector of manufacturing that is and has been in decline that we "the normal consumer" see in the marketplace and in terms of job outsourcing.

We don't really make a whole lot of things anymore.

But if you go to any retailer you will see where things are made.

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #23 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

Where do you live?

The U.S.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

Secondly I would suggest that yes when we build helicopters, tanks, ships, weapons systems, chemicals, aerospace etc. with very high price tags this is where we get the high figure of our "manufacturing" in this country.

Yes, the U.S. has transitioned from manufacturing low-value goods to manufacturing high-value goods. Essentially the US has a comparative advantage in making high-value goods and other countries have a comparative advantage in making lower-value goods. The has a comparative advantage in other things too (e.g., product design and engineering, etc.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

It is every other sector of manufacturing that is and has been in decline that we "the normal consumer" see in the marketplace and in terms of job outsourcing.

Why does this matter?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

We don't really make a whole lot of things anymore.

I guess it depends on what you mean by a "whole lot of things"...but even if you're right, why does it matter?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

But if you go to any retailer you will see where things are made.

Yes, most lower value items are made in other countries. This has a couple of benefits: 1) it makes the goods more affordable for more people (effectively increasing their wages), 2) enables these other countries to begin climbing the ladder out of poverty, and 3) it frees people in this country to work on other, higher value things.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #24 of 235

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #25 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

It's just baffling, isn't it?

Now wait just one second! Are you saying that Wall Street...to whom we're supposed to look at something like the DJIA increase over the past couple of years as a clear sign of the growing economy is baffled? This same group who didn't see the bad things coming on multiple occasions?

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #26 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

The U.S.
Yes, most lower value items are made in other countries. This has a couple of benefits: 1) it makes the goods more affordable for more people (effectively increasing their wages), 2) enables these other countries to begin climbing the ladder out of poverty, and 3) it frees people in this country to work on other, higher value things.

The US

I respect your opinion that it is no loss in fact a gain for other countries to continue to produce things which we used to partake in ourselves. I would ask when you will begin to be concerned as other countries erode the "higher value" items which you think is what does carry the water for us in the US now? Say in the next 10 - 15 - 20 years others in the world start producing the higher value items? Will you be concerned at that time?

I think that many can sense a decline in quality in items that used to last for 30 years like Coleman camp stoves made in the USA to cheap chinese made junk at wal-mart that lasts maybe one or two camping trips maybe a couple of years if you are lucky.

This is wonderful if you like buying junk and having fewer jobs because as you seem to see it there is no value to manufacture silly things like camping equipment only the high and lofty "high value" things that you mention are where the money is for the US at this point in time.

Again I think quality is in decline when we allow everything to become cheapened to where more people can afford a crappy / poorly constructed thing at wal-mart imported from slave labor that might last a year. Farther and fewer between are the finds of goods that last for generations or at least decades.

I would argue that the goods that we use on a household level could be made in the US. We have to choose to buy these goods. The toys our children play with could be made in the US like they were a a few decades ago. We could make furniture once again, we could make appliances in the US that are better in quality to the LG and the like that are imported. We could make things but instead we have many who just have given up and will work two jobs or flat out find a way to get government assistance instead.

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #27 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

The US

What?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I respect your opinion that it is no loss in fact a gain for other countries to continue to produce things which we used to partake in ourselves.

I don't think it's an issue of opinion. It's really a fact.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I would ask when you will begin to be concerned as other countries erode the "higher value" items which you think is what does carry the water for us in the US now? Say in the next 10 - 15 - 20 years others in the world start producing the higher value items? Will you be concerned at that time?

Only if we're not producing even higher value goods and services.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I think that many can sense a decline in quality in items that used to last for 30 years like Coleman camp stoves made in the USA to cheap chinese made junk at wal-mart that lasts maybe one or two camping trips maybe a couple of years if you are lucky.

Well there are other factors at play here than simply the fact they are made in China vs. the US. One major factor would be inflation.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

This is wonderful if you like buying junk and having fewer jobs because as you seem to see it there is no value to manufacture silly things like camping equipment only the high and lofty "high value" things that you mention are where the money is for the US at this point in time.

First, I didn't say that there is no value in these other things, I'm simply pointing out that we're better off by making the goods and services that carry a higher economic value.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

Again I think quality is in decline when we allow everything to become cheapened to where more people can afford a crappy / poorly constructed thing at wal-mart imported from slave labor that might last a year. Farther and fewer between are the finds of goods that last for generations or at least decades.

I agree that quality is in decline in some goods. There are other factors that contribute to that as I mentioned above.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I would argue that the goods that we use on a household level could be made in the US. We have to choose to buy these goods. The toys our children play with could be made in the US like they were a a few decades ago. We could make furniture once again, we could make appliances in the US that are better in quality to the LG and the like that are imported.

They could, but why does it matter?

NOTE: Some of those things are still made in the US (furniture and appliances, and sure some toys also).

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post #28 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post



They could, but why does it matter?

NOTE: Some of those things are still made in the US (furniture and appliances, and sure some toys also).

While you are glad we make the expensive stuff... For now anyway...

I would continue to hope that we make the expensive stuff as well as..

Make more consumer items that were once made in this country once again. There are countless items that could be made here and relieve pressure from the government paying endless unemployment benefits and at the same time provide jobs which in turn provide tax revenue to the government. Not to mention contributing to growing the economy.

So WHY does it matter?

More Jobs in the US. which could relieve our 10% unemployment number. Relieve the government of paying unemployment benefits. Create more jobs which in turn fuels tax revenue for the government as well as gives people without a job something to do with their lives.

So WHY does it matter? Quality of goods found in the marketplace could increase. We could actually as a consumer have an option to buy something that is a quality item as opposed to junky imported crap.



Jobs and quality. The two things that could stand to gain.

That is why it matters.

any other questions?

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
Reply
post #29 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

While you are glad we make the expensive stuff... For now anyway...

I would continue to hope that we make the expensive stuff as well as..

More specifically I'm glad we're doing high value work vs. low value work.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

Make more consumer items that were once made in this country once again. There are countless items that could be made here and relieve pressure from the government paying endless unemployment benefits and at the same time provide jobs which in turn provide tax revenue to the government.

Possibly. We'd have to find out how many of the currently unemployed who are receiving these benefits would actually be employed or employable making such things. I'm guessing very few.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

So WHY does it matter?

More Jobs in the US. which could relieve our 10% unemployment number. Relieve the government of paying unemployment benefits. Create more jobs which in turn fuels tax revenue for the government as well as gives people without a job something to do with their lives.

So WHY does it matter? Quality of goods found in the marketplace could increase. We could actually as a consumer have an option to buy something that a quality item as opposed to junky imported crap.



Jobs and quality. The two things that could stand to gain.

That is why it matters.

any other questions?

Well you're assuming these would be valuable, high quality jobs. They aren't. You're also assuming that a) people want higher quality and b) that just making it in the US will make it higher quality. These are not necessarily true.

My guess is that most people in the US (and even those who are presently and mostly temporarily unemployed, want jobs making clothes, bobble heads or even snapping together cell phones and iPads.

I, for one, don't want my kids working in a factory and certainly not a lot of the stuff that is being made by our friends in foreign countries. I'd rather see them employed in a better way. I've worked hard to raise them, educate them and make sure they have the capacity to use their minds to do high value work.

In the end this is a concern that's greatly exaggerated.

Now, I will say that if the US were to relax some, many or all of its employment regulations that make employing people a more expensive proposition, then some of those jobs will return to the US. But many are gone forever.

Another thing is this...(I wish I had the link handy)...I read somewhere that the US has lost more manufacturing jobs to increased technological automation than it has to foreign cheap labor competition. Do you oppose this increasing automation also? How would you react if someone invented some new machine that enabled car companies in the US to make cars completely automated from bumper to bumper and then the 600K or so people currently employed to assemble these cars no longer needed to be employed making cars?

Or, let's consider the telecommunications industry. Currently there are about 20K people employed as "operators" of some kind. Of course they don't the same thing as operators of years past did. Automation has eliminated the need for them to switch, connect and route calls. If we didn't have this level of automation a) our phone calls would be orders of magnitude more expensive and there would be something like a million people employed doing this activity instead of doing something else.

Economically these are the same things.

Here's a book that you might be interested in.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #30 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

We'd have to find out how many of the currently unemployed who are receiving these benefits would actually be employed or employable making such things. I'm guessing very few.

So you don't believe there are many out there who would love to have employment even if they are not a doctor, lawyer, engineer, make helicopters or weapons. You don't think there are many people "qualified" who are actually employable...

I think this is more about your perception of your fellow members of society than truth. You don't have any confidence in those without work. I do actually think there are millions who would love to work. Keep in mind not all people are executives, bankers, lawyers, rocket scientists. Thank goodness for all of the careers that I just listed but I think a balanced outlook understands that not all of society are trained or employed by these fields. There are many jobs that are not fun jobs. I am sure meat packing jobs are awful. I am sure doing work with sewage etc. is not fun work. Mining coal may not be fun. But to think that all manufacturing jobs that don't make "high value" end products are horrible and awful jobs I think is wrong and inaccurate. Then to assume that very few of the millions who are seeking employment are not actually qualified or employable to do this awful work is just elitist arrogance. You are sitting in a high place looking down your nose at the world.


Quote:
I, for one, don't want my kids working in a factory and certainly not a lot of the stuff that is being made by our friends in foreign countries. I'd rather see them employed in a better way. I've worked hard to raise them, educate them and make sure they have the capacity to use their minds to do high value work.


That is wonderful and I would never talk you out of it. But don't look at the rest of society as incapable or unwilling to be employed.


I understand that in America some want the education, the career, the lake house, the RV, the pool boy, the cleaning lady, the Hummer, the jet skies, the timeshare, the retirement funds, the pension, the best health care in the world, the college education for their kids, the expensive things in life like the good scotch, the good cigars, the nice car, the nice clothes, the expensive watch. This country provides opportunity for this.

Now some may just be modest people of modest means who just want a modest house not a $800,000 - $4 million luxury home in a gated community. Some may just want a means to raise a family. Not necessarliy go on Disney cruises but the local theme park or swimming pool. Not the fancy clothes but just closes to wear. Not the fancy restaurants but food on the table. These people if they have their own home clean it themselves, cut their own grass and are just normal people who may not be much in the way of yuppyland but they are content to their modest way of life.

I argue to you (you may be tone deaf to it) but none the less I argue to you that of this second class of people who are what I call "modest" There just might be a huge percentage of these kind's of people who would love to make things in america in a manufacturing job. I am not saying it would pay ton's of money. I am just saying that many would jump on this opportunity. I think it could add to our economy and reduce unemployment. I think it could actually translate to a better quality of life for the millions who are without work.

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #31 of 235
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Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

So you don't believe there are many out there who would love to have employment even if they are not a doctor, lawyer, engineer, make helicopters or weapons. You don't think there are many people "qualified" who are actually employable...

I think this is more about your perception of your fellow members of society than truth. You don't have any confidence in those without work. I do actually think there are millions who would love to work. Keep in mind not all people are executives, bankers, lawyers, rocket scientists. Thank goodness for all of the careers that I just listed but I think a balanced outlook understands that not all of society are trained or employed by these fields. There are many jobs that are not fun jobs. I am sure meat packing jobs are awful. I am sure doing work with sewage etc. is not fun work. Mining coal may not be fun. But to think that all manufacturing jobs that don't make "high value" end products are horrible and awful jobs I think is wrong and inaccurate. Then to assume that very few of the millions who are seeking employment are not actually qualified or employable to do this awful work is just elitist arrogance. You are sitting in a high place looking down your nose at the world.

I think you may have misunderstood what I'm saying. I'm saying that most people probably don't want to do the jobs that you're complaining about being in China, et al...and certainly not for the wages that are going to be paid to do those jobs. I'm saying that people want better jobs than that and, largely have those here. I actually wasn't claiming they were under qualified...but rather that they are over qualified.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I understand that in America some want the education, the career, the lake house, the RV, the pool boy, the cleaning lady, the Hummer, the jet skies, the timeshare, the retirement funds, the pension, the best health care in the world, the college education for their kids, the expensive things in life like the good scotch, the good cigars, the nice car, the nice clothes, the expensive watch. This country provides opportunity for this.

Now some may jsut be modest people of modest means who just want a modest house not a $800,000 - $4 million luxury home in a gated community. Some may just want a means to raise a family. Not necessarliy go on Disney cruises but the local theme park or swimming pool. Not the fancy clothes but just closes to wear. Not the fancy restaurants but food on the table. These people if they have their own home clean it themselves, cut their own grass and are just normal people who may not be much in the way of yuppyland but they are content to their modest way of life.

You appear to be implying that I'm in that "the lake house, the RV, the pool boy, the cleaning lady, the Hummer, the jet skies, the timeshare" and $800K - $4M house category. I'm not. I'm solidly middle class.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I argue to you (you may be tone deaf to it) but none the less I argue to you that of this second class of people who are what I call "modest" There just might be a huge percentage of these kind's of people who would love to make things in america in a manufacturing job. I am not saying it would pay ton's of money. I am just saying that many would jump on this opportunity. I think it could add to our economy and reduce unemployment. I think it could actually translate to a better quality of life for the millions who are without work.

Maybe.

I think the fetish about American manufacturing (along with the fetish about domestic oil) is an irrational and unnecessary concern.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #32 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post


Maybe.

I think the fetish about American manufacturing (along with the fetish about domestic oil) is an irrational and unnecessary concern.

domestic oil is a completely different subject.

As for it being a fetish I feel that our government has some issues to deal with. Issues like unemployment and a declining tax base. I don't think it is out of the norm nor do I believe it is irrational to suggest that Americans make things again.

This is not a liberal or a conservative issue. It is not "in my view" a free trade vs/ "protectionist" issue. It is simply recognition and hopefully action to expand the portfolio of work options for the people of this country. Not all of whome are rich or eliteist.

If employment was closer to full employment and our government had healthy tax revenues coming in I might grant to you that this issue would be closer to your description of being an "unnecessary concern".

However reality on the ground indiates that it is not off the wall to consider the benefits of manufacturing in America. I have complete confidence that Americans could make excellent products that both we here at home would purchase and those abroad would be willing to buy as well. I think we have excellent ideas, designs, and quality. No the products may not be the cheapest junk on the shelf at Wal-mart but they would be viable if only we gave it a shot.

Fellows
May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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May the peace of the Lord be with you always

Share your smile, Have respect for others, and be loving to all peoples

Paul in Athens: Acts 17 : 16-34
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post #33 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post


No, it doesn't.

You're telling me about one geographic area? Did federal taxes change in that area? Please. Try a little harder, please.
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #34 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

The bigger (long-term) economic growth effect will come from tax cuts for the wealthier because they have the highest propensity to save.

Of course its better for everyone to keep more of their own money and do with it what they choose to do. I am just speaking of the relative overall economic impact.

I agree with you.
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I can only please one person per day.  Today is not your day.  Tomorrow doesn't look good either.  
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post #35 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I would make the argument that what we need are jobs. I would also argue that America needs to make things once again. We need to make things.

Wealth redistribution is not a solve all for any economy here, in Europe or anywhere else.

We need to make things.

We have decided to allow ourselves to outsource far too much of who we are. Now we are much less than we were once. Ohh and there seems to be less income for the ever hungry to spend government.

Fellows

It's not "we" who have decided to outsource too much. It's the major corporations who have learned that they can still make an enormous profit even with their own company-wide austerity programs, slimming down so that existing employees have many more job duties for the same or fewer wages and benefits. And of course, since profit is the only thing that matters. these senior executives high-five themselves with huge bonuses for meeting the profit goals. Meanwhile, hiring has not resumed. Existing employees are worked to the bone. People are fearful to complain about the conditions lest others come in and take their jobs.

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/05/amer...wo%20Economies

The middle class is shrinking, thus shrinking demand. And it has nothing to do with taxes. Yet, senior executive salaries went up by 25% last year. Sure seems fair, doesn't it?

The solution is not to lower taxes. The solution is not to cut essential services. The solution demands a paradigm shift away from the idea that short-term profits are the end all and be all of corporate goals.

Corporate boards should be the checks and balances to the CEOs and senior management. They should NOT be the incestuous executive orgy they currently are.

We also must stop being the "no vacation" nation, but that's a whole other story for another day.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #36 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

I agree with you.

You might, but the facts don't.




From the CBO report on the stimulus last year. The corporate and wealthy tax breaks are the LEAST effective forms of economic stimulus.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
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post #37 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

domestic oil is a completely different subject.

I disagree. The fetish is, sometimes, for different reasons. But, ultimately, there are various strains of this "do it in the US" thing that is just stupid.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

As for it being a fetish I feel that our government has some issues to deal with. Issues like unemployment and a declining tax base.

The government needs to get out of the way.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

I don't think it is out of the norm nor do I believe it is irrational to suggest that Americans make things again.

I'm not claiming that such a suggestion is irrational per se. But there is an obsession with this that's really unnecessary.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

It is simply recognition and hopefully action to expand the portfolio of work options for the people of this country.

That's fine. But the focus on manufacturing is narrow and unnecessary. There is a wide range of productive economic activity. Some of it we call manufacturing, some of it we call services, some of we call financial services, etc. These are all valid and useful and productive forms of economic activity. There isn't one that is inherently more valuable or better than another and their importance changes over time and with the growing complexity and sophistication of the economy. There was a time in the US when 90% of the people were employed in agriculture. Now it's less than 10% (probably less than 5%). Manufacturing has and is going through the same transition.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

If employment was closer to full employment and our government had healthy tax revenues coming in I might grant to you that this issue would be closer to your description of being an "unnecessary concern".

I don't give a shit about government tax revenue. They're not getting enough? Cut spending. They need to get out of the way and economic activity will start to return to normal and new jobs of all kinds will be created.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Fellowship View Post

However reality on the ground indiates that it is not off the wall to consider the benefits of manufacturing in America. I have complete confidence that Americans could make excellent products that both we here at home would purchase and those abroad would be willing to buy as well. I think we have excellent ideas, designs, and quality. No the products may not be the cheapest junk on the shelf at Wal-mart but they would be viable if only we gave it a shot.

Then go give it a shot.


Here's a blog post I happened across on this topic. It's about 9 months old but perfectly relevant. There's a great comment to it:

Quote:
My grandfather was a machinist for 50 years at the same company. He retired in 1971 and he ran 9 automatics for a very well know printing machine manufacturer. When he retired 3 men had to take over running those same machines because he knew every nuance to them and how to keep them making chips. He was ‘productive’ and had built ‘efficiencies’ into his job… He fixed his Muda & Mura problems.

By the mid 1980′s the plant was closed. Why? Because a new plant using only a few “automated” machines had replaced all of the machines in the old plant.

In 1965 a typical shop might have 30 guys in front of 30 Bridgeports making 60 parts a day. Today ONE horizontal, with a programmer and 3 shifts of “parts loaders” can do the same amount of work in an hour.

I imagine that a similar graph exists for all of the lost jobs in accounting. Where did all of those filing clerks and people inputing punch cards into machines go? Where did all the typing pools go?

….and what happened to all those National Cash Register units?

Automation and technology played a big role in the elimination of jobs.

Of course, the next argument always put forward is the threat of another country ‘taking our jobs” In the 70′s it was Japan, now it’s China. Have we lost jobs to off-shoring? Certainly. Will we again in the future? Absolutely. But that is not NEW news. It’s been going on for generations.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #38 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

The solution is not to lower taxes. The solution is not to cut essential services.




Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

The solution demands a paradigm shift away from the idea that short-term profits are the end all and be all of corporate goals.

Love to know how you're going to do that.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

We also must stop being the "no vacation" nation, but that's a whole other story for another day.

Maybe some government minimum vacation mandates?

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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post #39 of 235
Yes, some Germany-style minimum vacation mandates would be the ultimate goal. There is more to life than work. They understand that.

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply

 

“The nitrogen in our DNA, the calcium in our teeth, the iron in our blood, the carbon in our apple pies were made in the interiors of collapsing stars. We are made of starstuff.” 
-Sagan
Reply
post #40 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BR View Post

Yes, some Germany-style minimum vacation mandates would be the ultimate goal. There is more to life than work. They understand that.

Great idea. Making employees more expensive is a sure route to reducing unemployment.

What about the employees who would prefer a higher salary and less vacation?

But more to the point, why not leave it to employees and employers to negotiate the total work arrangement (i.e., vacation, salary, benefits, etc.) between themselves?

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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