or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › JP Morgan: Apple's iPad rivals reduce build plans after 'early dose of reality'
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

JP Morgan: Apple's iPad rivals reduce build plans after 'early dose of reality'

post #1 of 75
Thread Starter 
A new investor report from J.P. Morgan on Wednesday indicates that Apple's competitors in the tablet market have reduced their build plans after receiving an "early dose of reality" in the form of lackluster sales.

According to analyst Mark Moskowitz aggregate tablet build plans have declined by roughly 10 percent since early March. Moskowitz took the reduction to mean that "non-Apple tablet hopefuls have adjusted to the weak showing so far."

Describing the trend as an "early dose of reality," the analyst noted that the market has yet to see a high-volume tablet competitor to the iPad. Moskowitz cited Asusteks Eee Pad Transformer, Motorolas XOOM, RIMs PlayBook, and Samsungs Galaxy Tab as examples of tablets that have failed to gain traction and whose makers have consequently reduced build plans.

In early March, Moskowitz warned of "increasing risk of a bubble burst" to the tablet market in the second half of 2011 because of exaggerated build plans from tablet makers. Moskowitz saw Apple's iPad 2 as making it tougher for rival first-generation tablets "to play catch-up," which would result in poor sales. The recent reduction in production volumes has allayed some of the firm's fears of a tablet bubble.

Moskowitz acknowledged that extrapolating trends from build plans can be problematic, noting that the firm applies discounts to adjust for limitations. J.P. Morgan now projects 2011 build activity for the tablet market to come in at 63 million after a discount of 14 percent. The firm had previously applied a 20 percent discount to arrive at a 65 million unit estimate, but reduced the rate after tracking "widespread reductions in build activity" in recent months.



According to the analyst, the "nascent tablet market stands to become big enough to create a ripple effect in the broader tech food chain" in 2011. Total tablet shipments in 2011 will reach just 3 percent and 11 percent of total handset and smartphone units, respectively. However, when compared against desktop and notebook PC units, tablet shipments will reach 32 percent and 21 percent respectively. Thus, "tablets stand to be big enough to have positive (or negative) spillover effects" in the broader market, Moskowitz said.



Moskowitz sees "limited upward pressure" in build activity occurring throughout the summer, adding that any increase will likely come from Apple. Some tablet makers are waiting to "see how the back-to-school reception is," while others are waiting to roll out 4G LTE tablets, he said.

Apple admitted in April that it was experiencing the "mother of all backlogs" with the iPad 2 and had sold every unit it could make last quarter. Production constraints for the iPad 2 have caused Wall Street analysts, including Moskowitz, and research firms to lower their shipment estimates for the year. J.P. Morgan currently estimates Apple will ship 6.75 million iPads in the June quarter
post #2 of 75
Ha ha. It's easy to laugh when these guys waited for Apple to innovate, then slapped together some cheap parts with unintuitive software and thought they'd fool everyone with their half assed knockoffs. Apple invented this market of tablets closely tied to smart phone parts, they thought of everything In detail way in advance. They had the vision, literally everyone else copied, poorly. The only ones who seem to be doing QA and thinking it through are HP. Maybe they'll have a viable hit, or maybe they're just slow. Guess we'll see.
post #3 of 75
What magicj said. To date, almost no one has hit on functionality, style, size, and price.

No one offers a superior experience, and almost every one suffers from some fatal flaw on the software side of the fence. (No email RIM? Really?)

At best, their primary reason to buy seems to be: "Hey! We have a tablet too!" When that gets no response they then frantically play the Flash card, to which many people (including me) yawn and say, "Who cares?"

I get along just fine without it, and the lack of Flash blocks the majority of the annoying animated advertising that's infected the web. They then switch to processor speed and the number of USB ports, which endears them to the geek market but that's about it. As Steve said, "If all you can talk about is processor speed, you're missing the point."

Come on people! Surprise us! If you want to sell us your gear, then show us something NEW. Don't just slap Android on a stock design, or resort to some lame trick like Flash, or, as in the most recent RIM Playbook ads, tout the ability to play a movie in the background where I can't see it.

Stop with the "me too" product line, and show us SOMETHING we haven't seen before...
post #4 of 75
I just use iSwifter on the iPad if I have a burning need to view Flash web content.
post #5 of 75
Remember at 63M - the iPad is still just in the lead, down from 100%. The question is whether it can continue above 50%
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
post #6 of 75
By this time, next year, the iPad will have well surpassed 100 million installed units.
post #7 of 75
Something else to think about. Perhaps the current size of the buying market is only 7-10million a quarter.

I have found many of the Android generic phones, like the original G1 are junk compared to an iPhone. Yet they sold enough per manufacturer to give them some traction each.

There simply is no room for anyone else to sell volume. All the associated factors don't help. At least an android phone was a phone. A tablet without all the supporting story going on is just a crap ass computer.
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
you only have freedom in choice when you know you have no choice
Reply
post #8 of 75
The iPad HW isn't selling the iPad, the iTunes 'ecosystem' is. Easy to purchase content and apps is the killer feature. Android still continues to be too fragmented.
post #9 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Remember at 63M - the iPad is still just in the lead, down from 100%. The question is whether it can continue above 50%

Remember, at 63M, the iPad is the only tablet to have sold more than 2M. Yep, still 'just' in the lead.
post #10 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by cy_starkman View Post

At least an android phone was a phone. A tablet without all the supporting story going on is just a crap ass computer.

Excellent point. A tablet as an adjunct to a pc, and still dependent on one, is useless to anyone who doesn't need the portability. And if you need the portability, you want compatibility with your existing platform. Android doesn't provide that for Windows users, and if it did Windows users are less likely to fork over money for apps they [perhaps] bought already for their pc's.

The real market for tablets is when they can be a straight out replacement for, or in lieu of, a pc.
post #11 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new investor report from J.P. Morgan on Wednesday indicates that Apple's competitors in the tablet market...

There is no tablet market. There is only an iPad market.
post #12 of 75
The competition just seem to be copycats. Their products exist 'cause they don't want Apple to be too far ahead in this market or it'll be nearly impossible to catch up. So their solution is to rush half-assed products out (both hardware and software) so that consumers shouldn't think this is an Apple only space. The longer consumers think that way, the more irrelevant the competition becomes. It looks like they made tablets because of Apple's success and didn't put any thought into an 'ecosystem'. And that is a deal breaker for me as a consumer. Companies like that will remain 2nd rate in my eyes.
post #13 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliots11 View Post

They had the vision, literally everyone else copied, poorly. The only ones who seem to be doing QA and thinking it through are HP.

That was after they tried to get a piece of the tablet market with their Windows-based 'HP Slate' disaster, and decided they needed Palm to get their show on the road, of course

But I agree, I'm almost rooting for HP to get it right, because the tablet market is decidedly boring right now. You have the iPad, but I already know that because I have one. Then you have a million Android tablets that don't interest me the least bit since they are all the same, they all have the same ugly convoluted UI (this is a personal opinion), none of them have any applications worth mentioning, the people talking about them on the internet all come off as absolute pricks to me, and they are marketed in a way that is as appealing to me as riding a bike without a saddle. Last but not least you have a few strange outcasts such as the Playbook, that don't fit into any category and try to be different, but unfortunately just plain suck because they are alpha hardware & software at best.

I'd love to see some real progress, some innovation, something that might stir up the market and introduce some new features or technology that even Apple can learn from. HP/Palm is my only hope for that, I know it's a really long shot, but that's just how things are right now. Which nicely illustrates how Apple single-handedly defined this market and will most likely be in control at least until after iPad 3 is released.
post #14 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliots11 View Post

Ha ha. It's easy to laugh when these guys waited for Apple to innovate, then slapped together some cheap parts with unintuitive software and thought they'd fool everyone with their half assed knockoffs. Apple invented this market of tablets closely tied to smart phone parts, they thought of everything In detail way in advance. They had the vision, literally everyone else copied, poorly. The only ones who seem to be doing QA and thinking it through are HP. Maybe they'll have a viable hit, or maybe they're just slow. Guess we'll see.

HP didn't create webos from the bowels of their culture. No, they bought it now they are going to pimp it. HP is playing catch to the other guy's culture and it ain't going to pan out the way they think it will IMHO. HP spent a lot of money buying Palm just to ride the bandwagon created by Apple.
I see the problem being the ability to get people to buy another webos tablet after they buy first one.
post #15 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac.World View Post

Remember, at 63M, the iPad is the only tablet to have sold more than 2M. Yep, still 'just' in the lead.

Are there any others that have actually sold 1M?
post #16 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

HP didn't create webos from the bowels of their culture. No, they bought it now they are going to pimp it. HP is playing catch to the other guy's culture and it ain't going to pan out the way they think it will IMHO. HP spent a lot of money buying Palm just to ride the bandwagon created by Apple.
I see the problem being the ability to get people to buy another webos tablet after they buy first one.

Consfusing R&D with M&A... Can you say "Microsoft"?
I've accomplished my childhood's dream: My job consists mainly of playing with toys all day long.
Reply
I've accomplished my childhood's dream: My job consists mainly of playing with toys all day long.
Reply
post #17 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

There is no tablet market. There is only an iPad market.

Thank You. I've had this thought for a long time and could not figure out how to express it. You did so, eloquently and concisely. We are all calling this a "tablet" market. Tablets have been around a long time. They went nowhere This is an iPad market.

We also talk about an ecosystem. It's more. It's a vertically integrated fortress of products and services that people understand, can use, want, and pay for.

The iPad is at the top of a series of products that starts with iPod's, iPod Touch's, and iPhones. People grew used to each one, each step up just adds something.

Competitors will have a difficult time storming this castle. They must build their own.
post #18 of 75
There are some utterly horrendous craplets on the market. The ones that fall into the "other" category. For example:

The "eLocity A7 7" Capacitive Touch Screen Android Tablet"
http://www.elocitynow.com/

The "Sylvania SYNET7LP 7-Inch Mini Tablet"
http://www.androidtablets.net/forum/...-progress.html

Here are 31 (yes, thirty one) "Cheap Tablet PCs"
http://www.china-tablet-pc.com/cheap...t-pc-c-17.html

And finally, if you thought those OLPC laptops were cheap at $100, here's a $35 Indian pad:
http://articles.nydailynews.com/2010...itute-computer

They're all knee-jerk reactions to iPad, by manufacturers who fell into the "cheaper means more market share" death-spiral-think. Greenpeace should whack these guys for creating such huge carbon footprints for so little return.

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply
post #19 of 75

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply

Sent from my iPhone Simulator

Reply
post #20 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

There are some utterly horrendous craplets on the market. The ones that fall into the "other" category. For example:

The "eLocity A7 7" Capacitive Touch Screen Android Tablet"
http://www.elocitynow.com/

The "Sylvania SYNET7LP 7-Inch Mini Tablet"
http://www.androidtablets.net/forum/...-progress.html

Here are 31 (yes, thirty one) "Cheap Tablet PCs"
http://www.china-tablet-pc.com/cheap...t-pc-c-17.html

And finally, if you thought those OLPC laptops were cheap at $100, here's a $35 Indian pad:
http://articles.nydailynews.com/2010...itute-computer

They're all knee-jerk reactions to iPad, by manufacturers who fell into the "cheaper means more market share" death-spiral-think. Greenpeace should whack these guys for creating such huge carbon footprints for so little return.

LOL, nice one, thanks for that. I might just order a few of these just to have a laugh, or to give away as a present to someone I really don't like at all
post #21 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by magicj View Post

Tip to Apple competitors in this area: Make sure the person in charge of developing these products can tell the difference between a large piece of burnt toast and a tablet.

You can't wave around a piece of over-priced useless junk and expect people to buy it.

Now you're just being too cruel. Honeycomb tablets are alright. The problem is at the same price and virtually no apps who are gonna buy it?
post #22 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Strange. I cant speak for the xoom or the playbook, but everywhere ive read has said the asus transformer has been sold out, and that asus is desperately trying to ramp up production to meet demand, not reduce build plans.

ASUS just makes Transformer in the range of ten thousands a month compare to millions with iPad.
post #23 of 75
Part of the problem, obviously, is that there is no compelling need for an iPad alternative. What precisely is an essential clone from a commodity supplier going to do radically differently or radically cheaper? Not much as far as I can see. And despite arguments about openness and ecosystems and all that, the fact is that many users of these products simply want internet access, email access, video capability, books to read and Skype access. None of which are particularly controlled or constrained by Apple.

From a business perspective it really is odd that other manufacturers are already trying to race to the bottom. They might be better off waiting for component prices to drop so they can compete on that front. The direct technological tack cannot be particularly profitable. Nor is it improving their credibility.
post #24 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Are there any others that have actually sold 1M?

Do you count the NookColor as a tablet? Personally I would, but if not then I don't know of one.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #25 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

ASUS just makes Transformer in the range of ten thousands a month compare to millions with iPad.

"Production rates are said to go up from the current 7-8000 per day to the maximum of 10,000 units Asus is capable of. The company aims to produce 300,000 tablets in the April-June quarter alone, and 2 million total for the whole of 2011."

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Asus-...demand_id18942
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #26 of 75
From Electronista, mention that Apple expects to ship 10M+ iPads this spring.

http://www.electronista.com/articles...lte.ruled.out/
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #27 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

"Production rates are said to go up from the current 7-8000 per day to the maximum of 10,000 units Asus is capable of. The company aims to produce 300,000 tablets in the April-June quarter alone, and 2 million total for the whole of 2011."

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Asus-...demand_id18942

That's pretty much it. 300,000 units in 3 months is a hundred thousand a month and that's when production ramps up, not when they initially produced and sold out, in ten thousands range.
post #28 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Last i heard, they were at 100k per month for apr and may, with plans to get up to 300k per month in june.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

"Production rates are said to go up from the current 7-8000 per day to the maximum of 10,000 units Asus is capable of. The company aims to produce 300,000 tablets in the April-June quarter alone,

.............
post #29 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

That's pretty much it. 300,000 units in 3 months is a hundred thousand a month and that's when production ramps up, not when they initially produced and sold out, in ten thousands range.

Actually it works out to 220K month average to get 2Million units over the 9 months it will be available this year. They're reportedly producing around 100K month average for the current quarter.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #30 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Actually it works out to 220K month average to get 2Million units over the 9 months it will be available this year. They're reportedly producing around 100K month average for the current quarter.

That's more or less what I said. Ten thousands range (10000-99999) a month. Let put this into perspective, Samsung sold 2 millions of Galaxy Tab (to retailer) in a few months. ASUS *will* produce 2 millions of Transformer in 2011. No wonder it *initially* sold out.
post #31 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

That's more or less what I said. Ten thousands range (10000-99999) a month. Let put this into perspective, Samsung sold 2 millions of Galaxy Tab (to retailer) in a few months. ASUS *will* produce 2 millions of Transformer in 2011. No wonder it *initially* sold out.

To continue with "perspectives", Apple is estimated to have sold a total of only 420K of their newly designed Airbooks in the entire 4th quarter of 2010 (Oct/Nov/Dec), yet it's being judged a huge success and rightfully so.

http://www.tuaw.com/2011/04/04/macbo...lion-per-year/

Note the analyst is the same one quoted for this AI article.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
post #32 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

To continue with "perspectives", Apple is estimated to have sold a total of only 420K of their newly designed Airbooks in the entire 4th quarter of 2010 (Oct/Nov/Dec), yet it's being judged a huge success and rightfully so.

We are talking about $500.00 tablet here. Apple and orange.
post #33 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by majjo View Post

Eitherway, my whole point is that asus is actually -INCREASING- production, not reducing as the article claims.

I think the whole point of the article is someone, like Moto for example, had an inflated projected sale. ASUS seems to me to have a more realistic view of the market.
post #34 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huperniketes View Post

A tablet as an adjunct to a pc, and still dependent on one, is useless to anyone who doesn't need the portability. ...The real market for tablets is when they can be a straight out replacement for, or in lieu of, a pc.

LOL. Have you seen any of the latest tablets ? Unlike iPad, they don't need a cable and iTunes running on the PC to sync. They work just fine standalone, syncing OTA to the cloud. Even if you buy app in the web based market somewhere, you don't need PC to download and transfer the app to the tablet. Apple still have a head-start given they were in the market a year earlier, but as apps for tablets are finally showing up, that gap is closing.
post #35 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by ahmlco View Post

As Steve said, "If all you can talk about is processor speed, you're missing the point."

Stop with the "me too" product line, and show us SOMETHING we haven't seen before...

Have you seen this ? : http://bit.ly/mNsc0E

The speed is not ultimate goal, but it is an enabler, and we still haven't seen many things packaged for tiny, portable device that runs on battery. Guess, at least for portable gaming we will see return to more traditional situation, where thousands of small players give a way to major players.
post #36 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainless View Post

Have you seen this ? : http://bit.ly/mNsc0E

The speed is not ultimate goal, but it is an enabler, and we still haven't seen many things packaged for tiny, portable device that runs on battery. Guess, at least for portable gaming we will see return to more traditional situation, where thousands of small players give a way to major players.

You're not implying that Android will soon acquire this capability and Apple will not do anything at all to counter, right?

That's the downfall of everyone who's ever proclaimed that the competition will soon overwhelm Apple. They look at what the competition is planning and then assume a world where Apple's products remain static forever. Even so-called 'analysts' make this mistake.
post #37 of 75
No one has commented on the funniest part of the whole article.

According to the newest (reduced) estimates, Apple will build 38 M units and everyone else combined with produce 35 M.

Do they really expect to catch up to Apple is this short of a time - with no compelling advantages at all?

If they actually follow through with these build plans, expect BOGO or better deals on crapware tablets before Christmas.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
Reply
post #38 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

You're not implying that Android will soon acquire this capability and Apple will not do anything at all to counter, right?

That's the downfall of everyone who's ever proclaimed that the competition will soon overwhelm Apple. They look at what the competition is planning and then assume a world where Apple's products remain static forever. Even so-called 'analysts' make this mistake.

In his defense, he is Brainless.
post #39 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brainless View Post

LOL. Have you seen any of the latest tablets ? Unlike iPad, they don't need a cable and iTunes running on the PC to sync. They work just fine standalone, syncing OTA to the cloud. Even if you buy app in the web based market somewhere, you don't need PC to download and transfer the app to the tablet. Apple still have a head-start given they were in the market a year earlier, but as apps for tablets are finally showing up, that gap is closing.

...as they finally cross the starting line with Apple already a lap ahead of the competitors, that they are finally closing the gap.

The "latest tablets" are mostly running the non-tablet Android, HP's webOS or RIMs QNX. Pre Honeycomb Android is not scaled to the tablet and all the apps are geared for smartphone use. And with Google locked down Honeycomb to get a solid build for the tablet market, QNX still trying to find its app feet (even porting ANdroid apps to get some app feet under the effort) and HP still trying to build out webOS apps, the only recourse you have is the problematic cloud apps that all the pundits claim will revolutionize computing. Until of course you get a Danger-style, or RIM-style networked resource failure. Everyone is still trying to figure out what Apple had on the bench over three years ago (from the hardware perspective) and (from an ecosystem perspective) what they can deliver for the platform itself.

You can of couse download apps on the fly on an iPad, and don'r need a PC to transfer it to the iPad, although you can do it that way if you desire. And if you have MobileMe you are already syncing things without a wire to the PC. Not completely "tetherless" but enough that you don't have to think much about it.
If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
Reply
If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
Reply
post #40 of 75
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

No one has commented on the funniest part of the whole article.

According to the newest (reduced) estimates, Apple will build 38 M units and everyone else combined with produce 35 M.

I don't expect competitors to build 30M+ tablets this year. IF they did and were able to sell the bulk of them then that would leave Apple with no where near the 80% of the tablet market that analysts have projected. And that would not be funny to Apple investors.
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
melior diabolus quem scies
Reply
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPad
  • JP Morgan: Apple's iPad rivals reduce build plans after 'early dose of reality'
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPad › JP Morgan: Apple's iPad rivals reduce build plans after 'early dose of reality'