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Strong June iPhone sales expected despite no next-gen model from Apple

post #1 of 25
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The latest indications from Apple's overseas supply chain are that the release of the white iPhone 4 has helped keep the company on pace to break even with iPhone sales from the previous quarter, representing a significant year over year increase even without the release of an "iPhone 5."

Analyst Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities visited this week with contacts in Taipei and attended the Computex Show. His sources have indicated that shipments of the iPhone 4 to Apple are flat quarter over quarter, a number better than the 15 percent reduction he had been expecting.

If iPhone shipments for the June quarter do hold steady from the 18.65 million the company sold in the March quarter, that number would be significantly higher than the 8.4 million iPhones Apple sold in the June quarter of 2010. Last year's three-month frame included the launch of the iPhone 4, which was the most successful product launch in Apple's history.

"Essentially, we are not seeing the typical long pause in demand that generally occurs ahead of the introduction of a next-generation iPhone that historically has occurred in June/July," White wrote.

He also received word that initial production will begin at certain iPhone component suppliers in July, with volume production of an anticipated next-generation iPhone beginning in August. That would put the so-called "iPhone 5" on track for a September launch, as has been previously rumored.

Apple typically introduces new iPhone hardware at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. But this year, a number of rumors, along with Apple itself setting the stage for a software-centric event, have indicated that this year's show will not feature the introduction of a new iPhone.

Helping Apple's iPhone 4 sales in the June quarter, even as the presumed launch of a new handset looms in the coming months, has been the launch of the white iPhone 4. White noted that the model has been "especially popular" in Asia, and is sold out in Taipei.



Finally, sources in the supply chain also reiterated to White that the explosion that killed two workers at a Foxconn production plant in Chengdu, China, last month is not expected to have a significant impact on iPad 2 production. Sources reportedly said that the facility had been held back by yield issues on certain outside components, and the facility may not have reached the "optimal utilization rate."

"Therefore, the explosion in Chengdu may result in more of an equilibrium situation with certain component vendors, rather than a shortage situation," he said. "Netting this all out, we believe the production of iPad 2 will be supply constrained by the June quarter; however, we are not prepared to place the bulk of the blame on the Chengdu operation."
post #2 of 25
my mother in law just bought one.
post #3 of 25
Android growth has reportedly stopped, (as a percentage of the market, not units) and iphones are on pace for level to growth despite impending new models? Interesting....

What part of this is the white phone, and what part is the slow kick over to new carriers like Verizon and the other couple of new carrier additions over the last 5-6 months? Does the iPhone finally have a large enough market to blunt the product cycle dip and climb a little or is the white iPhone the primary driver here?

Many a fan-droid said said, a year ago, that the next two years would be telling. They may be right. Android might only be a 30% system....
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post #4 of 25
The people who buy now don't care what iPhone they have OR don't have a friend that is willing to slap them in the head.
post #5 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post

my mother in law just bought one.

Anecdotally, I have seen several people from work buying their first iPhone this quarter. Definitely has more to do with availability on Verizon, though several did pick up the white.
I counseled two to wait for the next version in the fall and both went ahead and bought anyway. They felt that even the "old" version of the phone would be so much better than what they had. Now, every single one of these new adopters is ecstatic about their iPhone... It is an amazing thing!
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post #6 of 25
My friend has a dying iPhone 2G (actually, his *is* dead, he's using MY iPhone 2G). He knows there's no new model coming out next week, but we're both hoping that they cut the price or something. He desperately needs a new phone. He was planning on holding out for the 5, but since we're looking at September for that and the one he's using is falling apart, he has to pull the trigger soon. They're selling iPhone 4 refurbs (16GB) for $100 now at AT&T. He's anxious...
post #7 of 25
Could we actually see the iPhone 4 sell more units in its' 5th quarter (YoY) than it did in it's just first full quarter. That would be something for device over a year old.
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post #8 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by dagamer34 View Post

The people who buy now don't care what iPhone they have OR don't have a friend that is willing to slap them in the head.

For my friends, it is the former. They asked "what will be different if I wait for the next one?"
1) it will be faster (They don't care--the iPhone 4 makes every other phone they have had seem like a dinosaur. They aren't gamers and don't see a need for more speed.)
2) better camera (Again, the IP4 blows away what they were used to both in quality and usefulness/ease of use)
3) maybe screen improvements (see above)
4) maybe more memory (huh?)

The only traction I got was when I told them that the IP4 price would probably drop significantly but when they compared that to lost iPhone utility throughout the summer they went ahead and pulled the trigger anyway. As I said before, they are universally happy with their decisions.
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post #9 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

Android growth has reportedly stopped, (as a percentage of the market, not units) and iphones are on pace for level to growth despite impending new models? Interesting....

What part of this is the white phone, and what part is the slow kick over to new carriers like Verizon and the other couple of new carrier additions over the last 5-6 months? Does the iPhone finally have a large enough market to blunt the product cycle dip and climb a little or is the white iPhone the primary driver here?

Many a fan-droid said said, a year ago, that the next two years would be telling. They may be right. Android might only be a 30% system....

Seems like there's a survey (or analyst) for every argument. While a Nielsen poll published a couple days ago was showing a one percent loss in market share for both iOS and Android in the past month, another Nielsen survey published the week prior shows that new buyers are choosing Android 2-1 over the iPhone. This could be explained by more choice among Android phones, and no iPhones available from Sprint or T-Mobile.

But then there's this indicating it also a choice and not just taking what's available: More people planning a future smartphone purchase say that they want an Android one (31%) than hoping to get an iPhone (30%), tho it's essentially a wash. That's a huge change from just 6 months prior.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=27418
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post #10 of 25
Fair play to Apple, even when they F*ck up they still manage to land on their feet and smell of roses.

Not many companies could release a product 10 months late, not bother to release it's replacement (which will probably be a mediocre/lazy 4Gs type of upgrade anyway) and still increase their sales!

All of the other phone compaines must be scratching their heads trying to work out how to win.
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post #11 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

another Neilsen survey published the week prior shows that new buyers are choosing Android 2-1 over the iPhone.

All vendors Android-based devices v. single vendor iOS-based smartphones?! Why does this get compared as if it's fair and balanced? If the success of Android OS is good enough to hold its own then we shouldn't have to weaken it's success with poor comparisons.

But is 2:1 really that good? I don't think so. One vendor with one new product per year (or less) in a few different storage capacities v. multi-vendor, multi-display size trying to serve every user's needs on every US carrier.

Windows has 97% of the market and they charge handsomely for their OS. Android is free and can only give away 2x as many OSes as Apple sells iPhones.
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post #12 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Fair play to Apple, even when they F*ck up they still manage to land on their feet and smell of roses.

Not many companies could release a product 10 months late, not bother to release it's replacement (which will probably be a mediocre/lazy 4Gs type of upgrade anyway) and still increase their sales!

All of the other phone compaines must be scratching their heads trying to work out how to win.

No doubt at all that Apple has the single most desirable smartphone available. They've done a heck of a job in not only designing the phone itself but creating a total environment their owner's can safely play in. No one has done it better.
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post #13 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

All vendors Android-based devices v. single vendor iOS-based smartphones?! Why does this get compared as if it's fair and balanced? If the success of Android OS is good enough to hold its own then we shouldn't have to weaken it's success with poor comparisons.

But is 2:1 really that good? I don't think so. One vendor with one new product per year (or less) in a few different storage capacities v. multi-vendor, multi-display size trying to serve every user's needs on every US carrier.

Windows has 97% of the market and they charge handsomely for their OS. Android is free and can only give away 2x as many OSes as Apple sells iPhones.

I'm not judging the merits of the survey. I said in my first sentence that there's one for every argument.

But with that said, I'm not sure how else they'd compare it. Do you know how many iPhone sales are the 4G and how many are the 3GS? I don't. The only actual figures I ever see are official ones from Google and Apple and neither wants to go into much detail. So whether it's fair or not is a moot point. It's all they've got.

The only surprise I took from the mentioned survey is that more consumer's are now reportedly making a conscious choice to buy an Android phone, something I hadn't seen before this year. It's been assumed by some that once Apple iPhones were more widely available that they'd be the obvious selection by most purchasers. This survey says that's not the case at all.
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post #14 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

But is 2:1 really that good? I don't think so.

Depends on how you look at it I suppose. Is going from 9% market share to 36% in twelve months "really that good"? I think so.

http://www.dailytech.com/Microsoft+A...ticle18061.htm

Of course if you follow the money trail, that leads right to Apple's front door.
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post #15 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Seems like there's a survey (or analyst) for every argument. While a Nielsen poll published a couple days ago was showing a one percent loss in market share for both iOS and Android in the past month, another Nielsen survey published the week prior shows that new buyers are choosing Android 2-1 over the iPhone. This could be explained by more choice among Android phones, and no iPhones available from Sprint or T-Mobile.

But then there's this indicating it also a choice and not just taking what's available: More people planning a future smartphone purchase say that they want an Android one (31%) than hoping to get an iPhone (30%), tho it's essentially a wash. That's a huge change from just 6 months prior.

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=27418

Be sure to separate theses based upon US surveys and theses based upon world sales into two piles.
That should help alleviate the appearance of inconsistency. And plus you get two piles.
post #16 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Depends on how you look at it I suppose. Is going from 9% market share to 36% in twelve months "really that good"? I think so.

Which smartphone vendor did that?
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post #17 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Which smartphone vendor did that?


Perfect reply
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post #18 of 25
the title of this article makes no sense - why "despite"?
post #19 of 25
Why not update now? The trend is a big update followed by a small update. The next phone will just be a small update. You shouldn't go through too much pain waiting for a small update.

I wonder if this has anything to do with contracts ending on Verizon (or contracts ending on AT&T and switching to Verizon). Verizon picking up the iPhone not long ago is a big enough change to the market that it will probably have some sort of an effect for the rest of the year. I still prefer AT&T, but there are a lot of people out there that prefer Verizon. Same is true for countries like China that have only recently started adopting the iPhone in larger numbers.
post #20 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanderbob View Post

the title of this article makes no sense - why "despite"?

Sales are typically weak towards the end of a product cycle.
post #21 of 25
Apple enjoys the luxury of being able to release products exactly when they think it's most beneficial to them. For example, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple intentionally delayed the white iPhone release. It kept iPhone 4 in the spotlight between the Verizon iPhone launch in January and WWDC in June. Starting next week, iOS 5 + iCloud will get the star treatment, keeping iPhone and Apple in the news until the actual iPhone 4S/5 announcement and release.

On the other hand, all the copycats need to bang out their clones as fast as they can. And it shows.

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post #22 of 25
It's the software stupid. Heard that before. It's iOS 5 that will set the pace. After iPhone 5 comes out, what else could you do with it. I am working on an app though. The phone would shoot out these two
little wires about 4 to 6 feet long. I call it the iZap. However, I am finding battery constraints
post #23 of 25
Quote:
the title of this article makes no sense - why "despite"?

Quote:
Originally Posted by esummers View Post

Sales are typically weak towards the end of a product cycle.

Which would suggest the more accurate headline would be "Strong June iPhone sales expected because of no next-gen model."
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post #24 of 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


Depends on how you look at it I suppose. Is going from 9% market share to 36% in twelve months "really that good"? I think so.

The funny thing is... Android won't go from 36% to 63% in another 12 months... everything levels off...
post #25 of 25
Apple is doomed .

G o Apple .


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