Originally Posted by Hands Sandon
Yeah, it's a joke. Soaring unemployment under Bush dramatically tamed by Obama
False. Unemployment is much higher than it was under Bush.
and the dumb fucking electorate and jealous posters here attack Obama and the Democrats. It's too funny, or it would be if it wasn't so serious
The Democrats' perception of the electorate is pretty well vetted. But..who is jealous? Of whom? Wait you mean conservative posters are jealous of Obama's success?
The election is still a long way off though and unemployment numbers will hopefully get better now the fires under control.
I hope they do too (for the sake of the country itself), but it's unlikely that unemployment is going to drop by 2-3% in the next 18 months. I also see no economic reason why it would happen. Businesses are scared of the coming Obamacare mandates and know full well that Obama has pledged to let the Bush tax cuts finally expire. Businesses don't act on uncertainty.
I personally don't think Romney stands a chance. Even within the next two months I think we'll see Romney fall back to below Ron Paul's favorable rating for POTUS. That's a long way back down.
Some numbers here- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html
You don't think Romney has a chance, based on what? He's the strongest according to the polls, and is in a dead heat with Obama. What you fail to understand is this is not just about generic polling and popularity. I believe based on present data, Romney will win the GOP nomination and have a good shot at defeating Obama. Here is why:
For the nomination:
--Romney has a huge financial and organizational advantage over the rest of the GOP field. He raised $10 million in one DAY last month.
--Romney no longer has to worry about competing for conservative votes with Huckabee nor moderate votes with John McCain. Last time, he was in between both of these candidates. He was more moderate than Huckabee and more conservative than McCain. He is also a Mormon, which may have negatively affected him given that Huckabee offered an alternative.
---Romney already has great name recognition. The GOP also likes to nominate second place finishers for future runs. See Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.
For the general: A lot of this could change, but here is where things stand:
---Obama's popularity is sliding back down to the mid to low forties. That is not good enough..plain and simple. If he's not close to 50%, he's in big trouble.
---The enthusiasm among his base is very depressed. Conservatives and moderate Republicans see him as very beatable. In other words, the enthusiasm gap is going to be big.
--Without the aforementioned enthusiasm, Dems simply don't vote in the numbers that Republicans do.
---He's alienated many
moderates (and formerly non-political types) and some on the left. Moderates don't like Obamacare and extreme deficit spending, nor do they like his persona and statements about the American ideal, so to speak. The Left does not like that he extended the Bush tax cuts, kept Gitmo open, and started a 3rd war. So who's left? Party loyalists, lifetime Democrats and the core constituencies of blacks, low-income seniors, labor, etc. The waves of collge students who were caught up in the cult of personality and who wanted to say they'd voted for the first black President are gone. This is what many of those folks thought being "progressive" meant. This man is just not cool anymore.
---The visible results of his policies have been poor, if not disastrous. Most important: The economy and our fiscal situation. The electorate is now awake on the issues of big government, debt and deficits. Obama has exploded the deficit and debt. He and his party have not passed a budget in over 750 days. The stimulus has unquestionably failed. Unemployment is at 9.1% officially, with the real number being far higher. The data is just not good. Now granted, that could change. But as I said, businesses are not going to hire in this environment.
---This is my own judgement and not support by data per se, but: I think Obama has grossly underestimated the number of people that are turned off to him completely. Anecdotally, I've spoken with several people that voted for him in 2008 that now claim that will not even consider voting for him again. Most of them are very moderate people and/or not interested in politics. All they know is that the economy is bad, they may not have a job, and Obama's background/ideals don't match with theirs. They don't like Foreign Apology Tours, being told they are clinging to their guns and religion, being told that high gases prices and high unemployment are the new norm, and that America needs to be not a leader, but a voice in the a chorus of nations.
The facts are these: If no "big surprise" candidate runs, Romney will win the nomination. And if the economy does not improve dramatically
in the next year, Obama will lose.