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Adobe CEO downplays Flash, iOS feud, says Android tablets will dominate iPad

post #1 of 136
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Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said Thursday that the argument between Apple and his company over the lack of Adobe Flash on iOS is over, while also predicting that tablets running Google's Android will eventually overtake the iPad.

Narayen made the comments in an on-stage interview with journalist Walt Mossberg at the D9 conference hosted by All Things D. When asked by Mossberg whether "Adobe and Apple are done having the argument" over Flash, the executive said, "Absolutely."

Apple CEO Steve Jobs and Narayen engaged in a public war of words last year. Last year, Jobs published an open letter accusing Adobe Flash of not having "performed well on mobile devices." Narayen fired back with his own letter dismissing Jobs' comments as a "smokescreen" and blaming "the Apple operating system" for crashes that Jobs had attributed to Flash.

During Thursday's interview, Narayen asserted that the disagreement between the two companies hadn't ultimately been about the technology. "It's a business model issue, and it's about control of a platform," he said.

Narayen continued to stress Adobe's multi-platform strategy, noting that applications compiled in Adobe AIR can be easily converted for iOS and Apple's App Store. According to the executive, Apple has been approving such applications because it "still has control of the business model associated with it."

The Adobe chief touted the fact that his company will have 130 million phone devices that run Flash by the end of the year. However, Mossberg responded by interjecting that he had "yet to test a single one where Flash works really well,"

Narayen compared himself to "a kid in a candy shop" working with companies producing non-iPad tablets. I think the community is vibrant. Im really excited, he said.

"There is more power on these devices now than when we delivered Photoshop on a PC several years ago," Narayen said. "So we are clearly betting on these devices not just being consumption devices but also productivity devices for our community." Narayen promised that Adobe would bring all of its creative applications to tablets.

Just as with smartphones, Android, which supports Flash will eventually hit "an inflection point" with tablets and overtake the iPad, Narayen predicted. He also sees HP and RIM gaining traction with tablets in the enterprise.
post #2 of 136
When you take the rate of iPad growth, Android Tablet growth, and Adobe Flash decline I think that whenever this supposed day happens Flash won't be around to see it. Google will need to figure out how to get people to buy apps too. I'm not sure how meaningful fire sale growth is. I'm sure they will gain as much traction in the enterprise as Adobe Air...
post #3 of 136
Oh boy. This should be good.
post #4 of 136
"There is more power on these devices now than when we delivered Photoshop on a PC several years ago," Narayen said.

Ah, the good old days when Photoshop and most other Adobe software (I'm looking at you Illustrator and Acrobat Reader) wasn't a bloated piece of junk. Of course, this is what happens when there is no competition.

As for Flash, I foresee its heyday coming to an end. I don't know if it will ever completely disappear, but I think its dominance is going to fade. After all, when I watch something as simple as Hulu and the Flash plugin pegs a 2.0 GHz dual core C2D processor at 165% for a few seconds numerous times in a single episode that is not going to cut it on mobile devices.
post #5 of 136
Apple. Defeat.

Adobe. Fail.
post #6 of 136
Eventually, the sales of android tablets being made by every other manufacturer on the planet might just sell more than one tablet made by one manufacturer. It might be many years from now, but it'll probably happen, just like with the phones.

When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.
post #7 of 136
Flash is over, and it is a Dinosaur which will become extinct -- life support and companies afraid to embrace H.264/HTML 5+ are the only reason we are still saddled with it, IMHO.

Die Flash DIE!

Does anyone really use any apps from AIR? I cannot name a single one...
post #8 of 136
Granted HTML5 is taking off a bit slow the fact is it's growing and it doesn't require using the software from Adobe or any other corporation.

Adobe's CEO seems to think that Android phones and tablets will somehow be the savior of Flash when in fact the real danger is HTML5 and other tech that doesn't require expensive software to leverage becoming the standard.

No one is excited about Flash ...it's kind of the incumbent technology that's waiting to get put out to pasture once the young plucky stalwart comes to take the throne.
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post #9 of 136
Flash is mostly for dumb people who like to be bombarded with intrusive ads.

I use click2flash and the majority of flash content on sites that I visit are nothing but ads. I love seeing those grey boxes when I visit a site, because that tells me that it saved me from seeing some grotesque looking, extremely colorful, possibly blinking and flashing, annoying ad for something that I have zero interest in looking at. It's offensive. It's like getting flashed by a pervert in the street.
post #10 of 136
Yawn! Resign already would you.
post #11 of 136
Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen is in denial and the board better wake up and replace him before the company ends up like Blockbuster.

But that won't happen because the company is too important. So instead there will be a hostile takeover and guess who will buy them out?
post #12 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerseymac View Post

Oh boy. This should be good.

he's probably a friend of Steve Ballmer...

"Apple people have no objectivity when it comes to criticism of Apple.." Lenovo X1 Carbon is out..bye bye MBAir

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"Apple people have no objectivity when it comes to criticism of Apple.." Lenovo X1 Carbon is out..bye bye MBAir

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post #13 of 136
I wish all these delusional CEOs would just get together in a club somewhere and stop bothering progress. That way they can sit around, smoking cigars and stroking each other's egos while their companies fade into irrelevance. RIM? Dead. HP Tablets? DOA. MS Windows 8? Lackluster but will probably be forced on everyone. Android? Fragmented OS, market and unsustainable market for apps. They will keep market share by giving away the farm. Adobe Flash? Ancient history. So I suppose the "leadership" of these companies can stay firmly in yesteryear and talk about the glory days as a way to make them feel better about their own failures. In meantime, progressing companies like Facebook and Apple are going to bound into the future.
post #14 of 136
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Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

...It's like getting flashed by a pervert in the street.

Nice pun LOL.
post #15 of 136
I think Adobe Flash will fail only when users decided to use alternative methods.
post #16 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Narayen fired back with his own letter dismissing Jobs' comments as a "smokescreen" and blaming "the Apple operating system" for crashes that Jobs had attributed to Flash.

And the crashing on Windows?

Quote:

The Adobe chief touted the fact that his company will have 130 million phone devices that run Flash by the end of the year. However, Mossberg responded by interjecting that he had "yet to test a single one where Flash works really well,"

and then there was silence. lol. Seriously, he looked like someone kicked his dog

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #17 of 136
Delusion fueled by business failure. Either that or a half-assed attempt to draw negative publicity toward Apple. Either way...lame.
post #18 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post

I think Adobe Flash will fail only when users decided to use alternative methods.

Users are sheep and just want to watch the video or play the game. They don't really care about the format they just want the end product.

It's the developers that will decide on Flash. If they can find a tool that let's them do what they need to without flash they'll use it because the mobile market will be large enough that this makes sense.
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post #19 of 136
Flash is why Terrorists hate America.
post #20 of 136
Apologies for the coming rant. I'm so tired of hearing people talk about this inevitable end of the iPad era, where the pathetic little apple tablet will become this irrelevant has been. If it happens then fine, so be it. But how many competitor's tablets will be exalted on high as the obvious iPad killer, yet only to disappear shortly after it's release? Remember when samsung was to bring the pain down on apple? Then it was motorola, then rim, now god if you're listening please let it be hp. I'm fine with competition, but i'd like just for once that competition to speak for itself. Let android overtake apple in tablet market share, it may well be inevitable, and the way I see it the better for us consumers. Keep apple constantly on their toes so they don't get too stagnant. But I guess what I'm tired of hearing is these CEOs always talking, never doing. Sorry rant is over.
post #21 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightstriker View Post

Flash is why Terrorists hate America.

I think you're on to something.
post #22 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by lightstriker View Post

Flash is why Terrorists hate America.

Terrorists probably love flash. They use PC laptops, running Windows most likely.

Have you ever heard of a terrorist being captured with a Mac? When Bin Laden was killed like the degenerate scum that he was, do you think that they confiscated a Mac laptop? When Shiek Mohammed (soon to be dead, hopefully) was captured and had his laptop confiscated, do you think it was a Macbook? I don't.

There might be a terrorist or two out there that has a Mac. There are enough of them out there and the possibility that some of them have Macs is not far fetched. I'm just saying that to date, no terrorist which has been caught so far used a Mac, as far as I know. If an Apple store happens to open up in Islamabad, then things might change.
post #23 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Eventually, the sales of android tablets being made by every other manufacturer on the planet might just sell more than one tablet made by one manufacturer. It might be many years from now, but it'll probably happen, just like with the phones.

When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.

One would normally think that dozens of companies would sell more products than one company would given many more model choices and lower price points. That's almost a given. But in Apple's case with tablets, they might be proven wrong. I understand that Android smartphones (a dozen companies, dozens of various models and many BOGO deals) are outselling basically the one model iPhone, but Apple isn't being overwhelmingly beaten. 10% less market share than Android isn't all that much and Apple is making nearly 50% of smartphone profits, so Apple is doing very well.

Narayen is entitled to his opinion and a lot of analysts are saying the same thing that Apple tablets will be in the minority eventually, but there's certainly no indication of that happening at this point. \
post #24 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by tzeshan View Post

I think Adobe Flash will fail only when users decided to use alternative methods.

Imagine that, Flash won't fail until users actually stop using it.

Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

 

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post #25 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Terrorists probably love flash. They use PC laptops, running Windows most likely.

I though Windows was the weapon terrorists unleashed on an unsuspecting world!! Microsoft Osama.exe?
post #26 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Realistic View Post

Imagine that, Flash won't fail until users actually stop using it.

Developers have to stop using it first.
post #27 of 136
I'm willing to bet that with time, the history of the MP3 will repeat itself with most other devices that apple makes. 10 years ago (I don't know the exact dateshoot me) Apple entered the MP3 player market. They now own 70-75% of that market, leaving the others to fight over the crumbs, with profits so slim that the smarter companies have surrendered.

The iPhone hit the street to a chorus of guffaws (the YouTube of Balmer dissing the iPhone is a classic) just over four years ago; the street is already filled with the walking deadRIM, Palm, Nokia, Motorola, and iPhone hasn't gotten much beyond 10% in most markets; It is certainly more profitable than ANY phone (let's face it, who wants market share if you're not making money?). True, Android is giving Apple a run for its money on the smartphone side, but with ecosystem tweaks and NFR technology, the highly capable iPhone will become even more useful; I'd be surprised if the Android momentum continues much longer. So 70-75% in another area in, let's say 10 years from launch date (2017)

iPad Hmmmmto say that the iPad will become a has-been is to ignore history. Apple has or will capture 70-75% of the market of products that existed before they came along with a better mousetrap. iPad on the other hand, is an entirely new category. To believe that anyone will make significant inroads into a category that apple created is just silly; that CEO should step down
post #28 of 136
"There is more power on these devices now than when we delivered Photoshop on a PC several years ago," Narayen said.

This is how Adobe look at portable device platform? A platform with a lot of CPU at its disposal?

Just what kind of battery will it take to satisfy using the CPU in the way he envisions?

No wonder Flash continues to be more and more of a CPU hog. No thanks. Keep it off my portable device.
"Building for the future?! They should be running around reacting to the present!" -John Moltz
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post #29 of 136
Is the Adobe CEO anything but a Troll at this point? If he really believes what he is saying, he should be fired. Actually he should be fired either way. Wow. Maybe he could take the job at RIM.
post #30 of 136
This is a good example of another CEO out of touch with the building IOS wave. Flash is a resource hog through and through. It eats battery life. Adobe lacks the integrity to cop to the obvious.

The general tendency for the PC crowd is to think "computer" when building a tablet. This flawed approach works to Apple's advantage.

John Gruber says this about it re Microsoft and Windows 8: http://daringfireball.net/2011/06/wi...entally_flawed

JG's take can be applied to any of these moronic companies (RIM, Sony, HP, Motorola, etc).
post #31 of 136
As much as I hate to say something positive about Windows, it appeases that Narayen has forgotten or is ignoring the fact the Windows 8 is supporting HTML 5. That will certainly place additional pressure on the Flash platform to compete, forcing them to operate more efficiently if they want to survive.

And, please tell me that Narayen doesn't really think that the iPad will continue, unabated in it's current form. I'm willing to bet that Apple will continue to develop new and better innovative products that will advance the computing window in the future. In short, Apple is not going to develop a stagnant product line. It will continue to innovate. And, as long as Adobe and others continue to think that the goal is to beat the iPad, they will lose to the next innovative product.
post #32 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Eventually, the sales of android tablets being made by every other manufacturer on the planet might just sell more than one tablet made by one manufacturer. It might be many years from now, but it'll probably happen, just like with the phones.

When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Eventually, the sales of android tablets being made by every other manufacturer on the planet might just sell more than one tablet made by one manufacturer. It might be many years from now, but it'll probably happen, just like with the phones.

When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Eventually, the sales of android tablets being made by every other manufacturer on the planet might just sell more than one tablet made by one manufacturer. It might be many years from now, but it'll probably happen, just like with the phones.

When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.

While I dont directly disagree because anything is possible. But there are a couple factors that play into this which I like to point out.

But first, i have to say that I enjoy seeing that other people also, like me, realize that most fandroids touting android vs iphone seem oblivious at the fact that an android phone DOES NOT EXIST that can compete with the iPhone. It takes probably about 100 different phone models to compete with just the 1, ONE iPhone. They see it as a good thing that it takes that many android models to just "tie" the iPhone.

They also COMPLETELY remain ignorant when you throw ALL iOS devices into the mix, they outnumber android by almost 2:1! This includes iPhones, iPad, iPOD Touch.

Please name me ONE android product that is being bought faster than the rate of production?!?!?!?!? HUH? What was that???? NOTHING!!!!

1. iPad is NOT limited to one carrier.
2. The iPad price point beats current and upcoming competition.

Those two things alone creates the wide open market segment that Apple could not have with the iPhone because of their decision to get locked into a 4-5 year contract with ATT.

Had this barrier been removed I think the landscape would be MUCH different.

I dont think you would see even half the current droid population in the US had the iPhone been available on all 4 carriers from launch day or at least by the iPhone 3G.

And had Apple started the lower entry price points also with the 3G we would be in a very different ballpark.

Since the iPad does NOT have these barrier I think we will see the current figures for a while. By years end will be nearly two years since the iPad debuted and Apple will still have 80% of the market. I also truely beleive that Apple will keep up to 70% thru 2012 too!
post #33 of 136
You guys are so unkind. Exactly what would you expect the Adobe CEO to say?

Actually, I would expect Adobe to be working feverishly in secret to be the next big thing in supporting HTML5 but until then, still be upbeat about Flash.

Otherwise, you'd end up like Nokia's Elop: embracing the new but unproven (Windows Phone 7) and effectively killing off their existing solution (Symbian). And we know what's happening there...
post #34 of 136
Saying something doesn't make it so...
post #35 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

One would normally think that dozens of companies would sell more products than one company would given many more model choices and lower price points. That's almost a given. But in Apple's case with tablets, they might be proven wrong. I understand that Android smartphones (a dozen companies, dozens of various models and many BOGO deals) are outselling basically the one model iPhone, but Apple isn't being overwhelmingly beaten. 10% less market share than Android isn't all that much and Apple is making nearly 50% of smartphone profits, so Apple is doing very well.

Narayen is entitled to his opinion and a lot of analysts are saying the same thing that Apple tablets will be in the minority eventually, but there's certainly no indication of that happening at this point. \

We all know that when you have 400 OEMS producing a tablet that runs one freaking OS, that is free, they will collectively beat the lone tablet that runs a different OS.
Moto is on its 2nd tablet in 4 months. Now multiply that by 200 OEMS and you'll eventually have a glut of tablets on the market going for $50.00 You know damn well this xmas them crap tablets running Android 2.1 will be big a$$ doorbusters at Wall mart on black Friday.
post #36 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


When people compare iOS to Android, they're comparing 1 company VS everybody else, which includes hundreds of companies. That tells you how strong Apple is compared to everybody else.

That's exactly right.

And here's the funny part... last quarter Apple was selling an average of 200,000 iPhones every day. That's ONE company.

Android's latest numbers are 400,000 every day... but that's from 50+ phones spread out over a dozen manufacturers.

The truth is... Apple is actually doing better than each of the Android manufacturers. Those manufacturers would KILL for Apple's numbers.

Sure... if you combine all the Android manufacturers together... of course Android's numbers will be higher.

But... HP doesn't combine their numbers will Dell when they give their results for computers... so why would you combine Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola for phones? Those companies are bitter enemies.

Example... If Samsung has a great quarter and sells a tons of phones.... you don't hear Motorola piggybacking on that announcement saying "yay! we sell Android phones too! Team Android... go us!"

The only way it makes sense is if you say "Google's Android OS" is on X number of phones sold. But, that's not a correct comparison either... because Google doesn't sell phones...

Apple does. And Samsung, HTC, LG and Motorola each sell phones too.
post #37 of 136
He has stopped freaking out about iOS not supporting Flash because he thinks Android is going to be the dominant platform.

But he should still be freaking out because, even as a minority, iOS would be a significant minority, and companies would use technologies that give compatibility with both (HTML5 or others).
post #38 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bay Area CA Male View Post


Those two things alone creates the wide open market segment that Apple could not have with the iPhone because of their decision to get locked into a 4-5 year contract with ATT.

Had this barrier been removed I think the landscape would be MUCH different.

While I agree that Apple will be in a strong position for the foreseeable future.... I must correct one thing...

The iPhone is on 200 carriers around the globe. If the iPhone was on Verizon or even Sprint and T-Mobile for the past couple of years in the US... it probably wouldn't have made that much difference overall.

The iPhone is already on multiple carriers in many countries... and in many cases Android phones overall beat iPhone sales.

But I don't really think that hurts Apple... especially if you read my previous comment 2 up from this one...
post #39 of 136
Android tablets will dominate the market??? Where were till now?? That game has already ended. Apple is dominating the tablet market and that's finished. iPad became another iPod in terms of dominance and your crappy company is dying and begging to have flash on iOS devices. Even on my Mac I'm not using flash anymore (with extensions like Click2Flash) let alone on mobile devices. Even MS and Google are moving towards HTML5
post #40 of 136
Quote:
Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post

Does anyone really use any apps from AIR? I cannot name a single one...

The only one I use is the desktop Pandora program. If it wasn't for my love of music I would not have a use for A. Air. Just downloaded the latest Adobe Reader X and it was 285 megs ... give me a freakin' break!

All the complaints about Flash are completely warranted. It's a terrible program that sucks the life force from my processor. Someone here mentioned turning off flash in the browser and I was absolutely amazed at how much better my computer performed.
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