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Launch of Apple's iCloud predicted to cause 'collateral damage' on RIM

post #1 of 54
Thread Starter 
The anticipated ability of Apple's iCloud network to take some processing and traffic burdens from wireless carriers' networks has been predicted by one analyst to cause "collateral damage" for rival handset maker Research in Motion.

Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee issued to investors Friday in which he declared that iCloud will make it even tougher for companies to compete with Apple. He reiterated his belief that iCloud will "change the game" in the highly competitive mobile space.

In his view, iCloud will make iTunes even more powerful and useful for end users. That would be a huge blow to RIM, Google, Amazon and Microsoft, all of which have struggled to compete with iTunes in its current form.

But iCloud is predicted to have a particularly significant impact on RIM, which offers its own unique push network for users of BlackBerry smartphones.

"While iCloud doesn't replicate all of RIMM's push network, the ability for iCloud to offload data center processing and traffic from carriers is attractive," Wu wrote. "And it looks like AAPL will likely offer some base service for free."

Citing industry contacts who shared details on the matter, Wu said that Apple's iCloud is likely to impact both RIM's forward service revenue and gross margin. This is because carrier payments are estimated to have a high gross margin of 85 percent to 87 percent.

As a result, Sterne Agee has lowered its estimates and price target for RIMM stock. For the company's 2012 fiscal year, Wu now sees $24 billion in revenue and $6.35 in earnings per share, down from $24.1 billion revenue and $6.65 EPS. And the new price target for RIMM stock is set at $44, down from $52.

Though the iCloud name has been confirmed by Apple, the actual details of the product remain unknown. Chief Executive Steve Jobs is set to unveil the new service during his keynote that will kick off the Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday, but banners hung at San Francisco's Moscone Center have already shown the company's iOS icon for iCloud.



On Wednesday, AppleInsider exclusively reported that iCloud is expected to offer some services -- likely syncing of bookmarks, contacts and calendar events -- free to users who run Mac OS X Lion, Apple's latest Mac operating system. The iCloud service is believed to replace the current MobileMe product.

Other reports have indicated that the music streaming component of the new iCloud service could be free at first in a trial period. But eventually, Apple reportedly plans to charge customers $25 per year to be able to stream their content to any Internet-connected device, such as an iPhone or Mac.
post #2 of 54
I have mobile me right now and Im just wondering if they are replacing mobile me what it means for the email, and web hosting capabilities the service currently has.
\

it would be totally awesome if they changed the emails back to @mac.com
post #3 of 54
If RIMM hadn't lashed out during "antennaegate" with a bunch of childish press releases bashing Apple, then Steve Jobs wouldn't have specifically called them out on the October earnings call ("We've passed RIM in mobile phone shipments, and they'll never catch up"). Apple is usually a pretty modest company, publicly, but RIMM pissed them off. Time to pay the piper.
post #4 of 54
So are we listening to what Shaw Wu has to say now then?
post #5 of 54
Great analysis based on everything we know about iCloud right now.... /s
post #6 of 54
This "research note" makes no sense at all. Why is iCloud going to hurt RIMM more than the others? The only way it hurts RIMM is because it makes iOS more attractive, but that hurts all companies the same, right?
post #7 of 54
[it would be totally awesome if they changed the emails back to @mac.com [/QUOTE]

You are aware, of course, that those who already had @mac.com address before the advent of MobileMe (with its @me.com) still retain the emails with @mac.com.
post #8 of 54
Quote:
"While iCloud doesn't replicate all of RIMM's push network, the ability for iCloud to offload data center processing and traffic from carriers is attractive," Wu wrote. "And it looks like AAPL will likely offer some base service for free."

Is she saying anything?

Whatr traffic and data center processing is offloading iCloud from carriers?
post #9 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post

Is she saying anything?

Whatr traffic and data center processing is offloading iCloud from carriers?

The ability to talk out of your ass
post #10 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by dr_lha View Post

So are we listening to what Shaw Wu has to say now then?

Nope. He always comes out with some pronouncement ahead of a significant Apple event, be it a launch or earnings report. He is often wrong.
post #11 of 54
This story does not make logical or technological sense. It is simply a bunch of words strung together in a nonsensical way.
post #12 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

This "research note" makes no sense at all. Why is iCloud going to hurt RIMM more than the others? The only way it hurts RIMM is because it makes iOS more attractive, but that hurts all companies the same, right?

Shaw Wu is a sell-side analyst, and what people should remember is that their job is not to provide accurate forecasts or predictions, but to say anything that favours the company they work for or their clients. Don't take anything these clowns say as gospel.
post #13 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atman View Post

[it would be totally awesome if they changed the emails back to @mac.com

You are aware, of course, that those who already had @mac.com address before the advent of MobileMe (with its @me.com) still retain the emails with @mac.com.[/QUOTE]

yes... and if i was one of those I obviously wouldn't need them to change it back....
post #14 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

This "research note" makes no sense at all. Why is iCloud going to hurt RIMM more than the others? The only way it hurts RIMM is because it makes iOS more attractive, but that hurts all companies the same, right?

I'm not sure that Apple is trying to hurt anyone. They are just beefing up their offerings. As a mobile me family plan subscriber, I'm happy that there will be some improvements to the service, it's long overdue IMO.
post #15 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gwydion View Post

Is she saying anything?

Whatr traffic and data center processing is offloading iCloud from carriers?

I was wondering the same thing. iCloud being Apple enhancing iTunes take load of the carriers how? How is it in anyway more of a threat to RIM than to Android vendors or MS? As addicted44 said, it makes iOS more attractive to end users and so might hurt RIM, but only in the exact same way it might hurt HTC or HP or Nokia.

"My 8th grade math teacher once said: "You can't help it if you're dumb, you are born that way. But stupid is self inflicted."" -Hiro. 

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"My 8th grade math teacher once said: "You can't help it if you're dumb, you are born that way. But stupid is self inflicted."" -Hiro. 

...sometimes it's both
Reply
post #16 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

This "research note" makes no sense at all. Why is iCloud going to hurt RIMM more than the others? The only way it hurts RIMM is because it makes iOS more attractive, but that hurts all companies the same, right?

I think the inference is that outside of the music and iTunes stuff that's actually mentioned, that iCloud will provide syncing, push, and notification services that make RIM's (the market leader in this stuff at the moment), look old hat.

I've thought this for a while also. I don't see why everyone is focussing just on the music streaming, when the fact that we are all expecting better notifications in iOS 5 is probably far more relevant to the cloud stuff.

IMO, better notifications on the devices, better, more integrated push (in multiple and probably some new) iOS services and the presence of the iCloud all add up to a superior "always on" kind of experience for iOS devices. This seems far more important/relevant than simple music streaming to me.
post #17 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

"While iCloud doesn't replicate all of RIMM's push network, the ability for iCloud to offload data center processing and traffic from carriers is attractive," Wu wrote.

How does that work?
post #18 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I think the inference is that outside of the music and iTunes stuff that's actually mentioned, that iCloud will provide syncing, push, and notification services that make RIM's (the market leader in this stuff at the moment), look old hat.

I've thought this for a while also. I don't see why everyone is focussing just on the music streaming, when the fact that we are all expecting better notifications in iOS 5 is probably far more relevant to the cloud stuff.

IMO, better notifications on the devices, better, more integrated push (in multiple and probably some new) iOS services and the presence of the iCloud all add up to a superior "always on" kind of experience for iOS devices. This seems far more important/relevant than simple music streaming to me.

Good points. But, I think we are all hoping for improved notifications and syncing, with or without iCloud. Music and media has been the focus of most iCloud discussions, because that seems to be the focus of most of the 'leaks'. If it also brings improved and more convenient syncing, great. I am not sure I see how iCloud will improve notifications in any major way. APN needs to be improved in fundamental ways in the OS first and most importantly.

"My 8th grade math teacher once said: "You can't help it if you're dumb, you are born that way. But stupid is self inflicted."" -Hiro. 

...sometimes it's both
Reply

"My 8th grade math teacher once said: "You can't help it if you're dumb, you are born that way. But stupid is self inflicted."" -Hiro. 

...sometimes it's both
Reply
post #19 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

How does that work?


I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge of networks and providers is scant...but I'm confused as well. If we're moving through a carrier like ATT for data, what, exactly, is being offloaded? Someone more knowledgeable, please throw me a bone.
post #20 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol77 View Post

I'll be the first to admit that my knowledge of networks and providers is scant...but I'm confused as well. If we're moving through a carrier like ATT for data, what, exactly, is being offloaded? Someone more knowledgeable, please throw me a bone.

Well obviously the data won't need the carriers anymore because it's being delivered through the iCloud. Wait - it's the carriers who should be quaking in their boots.
post #21 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by talkshowonmute View Post

I have mobile me right now and Im just wondering if they are replacing mobile me what it means for the email, and web hosting capabilities the service currently has.
\

it would be totally awesome if they changed the emails back to @mac.com

".mac" never stopped working. You didnt have to change to "me.com"
post #22 of 54
I sure hope they can make iCloud into more of a SalesForce alternative than just online music storage... If that is all it is, what benefit does it really offer developers?
post #23 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by See Flat View Post

".mac" never stopped working. You didnt have to change to "me.com"

Unless he came in after the change had happened...

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #24 of 54
How would iCloud do any more than MobileMe does today to remove a traffic burden in terms of maintaining email accounts and sync'ing contacts/calendars? If anything, the carriers are going to see traffic increase dramatically as people stream more stuff over it instead of playing media directly from their device! The "analysis" should have never passed through AppleInsider's 30 sec. editorial process.
post #25 of 54
RIM should just die. They have been doing almost no innovations in the mobile industry from past few years.
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post #26 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by talkshowonmute View Post

I have mobile me right now and Im just wondering if they are replacing mobile me what it means for the email, and web hosting capabilities the service currently has.
\

it would be totally awesome if they changed the emails back to @mac.com

Just as long as it isn't cloud.com.
post #27 of 54
Well, let's hope Apple doesn't start supporting email addresses for @mac.com, @me.com, @icloud.com. That's just too confusing.
post #28 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzkaur View Post

RIM should just die. They have been doing almost no innovations in the mobile industry from past few years.

So anyone who doesn't innovate should die? That would have included Apple just a bit over 10 years ago. Imagine if it wasn't given a chance to turn around? RIM is in way better shape than Apple before Jobs' return.

Even if one's an Apple fanboy, there's no benefit to seeing one of its competitors fade completely. Competition is good for ALL of us. Any intelligent person would want to see RIM right its ship, become competitive again and push Apple and Google to do better. There is no better landscape than one which is highly competitive.
post #29 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

So anyone who doesn't innovate should die? That would have included Apple just a bit over 10 years ago. Imagine if it wasn't given a chance to turn around? RIM is in way better shape than Apple before Jobs' return.

Even if one's an Apple fanboy, there's no benefit to seeing one of its competitors fade completely. Competition is good for ALL of us. Any intelligent person would want to see RIM right its ship, become competitive again and push Apple and Google to do better. There is no better landscape than one which is highly competitive.

Agreed.

Additionally, RIM is NOT going to just die. They have some incredible moats which will be hard to break down.

1) Extremely popular in India/China, where people might not be willing to pay for expensive data services.
2) BES is still the industry standard. This is not going to change easily in the Enterprise.
3) BBM is still extremely popular, and its hard to switch away from it.

Not that this is sufficient to keep them afloat, but it gives them enough time to try and turn things around. Besides, unlike most in the Android camp (except HTC) RIM is still making profits with their mobile efforts.
post #30 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Well, let's hope Apple doesn't start supporting email addresses for @mac.com, @me.com, @icloud.com. That's just too confusing.

I'd rather have a @mac or @iCloud account. I don't like the @me for some reason...
post #31 of 54
Yeah I know people who swear by their black berry. However, push streaming sounds kinda HOT. I hope Apple takes this far.
post #32 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvolino View Post

How would iCloud do any more than MobileMe does today to remove a traffic burden in terms of maintaining email accounts and sync'ing contacts/calendars? If anything, the carriers are going to see traffic increase dramatically as people stream more stuff over it instead of playing media directly from their device! The "analysis" should have never passed through AppleInsider's 30 sec. editorial process.

I was wondering the same thing. Exactly what is being "offloaded" from the carriers? This is going to lead to far more carrier traffic, not less. Add on tiered pricing structures for bandwidth and the carriers stand to to make a bundle off our iClound usage.
post #33 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

Agreed.

Additionally, RIM is NOT going to just die. They have some incredible moats which will be hard to break down.

1) Extremely popular in India/China, where people might not be willing to pay for expensive data services.
2) BES is still the industry standard. This is not going to change easily in the Enterprise.
3) BBM is still extremely popular, and its hard to switch away from it.

Not that this is sufficient to keep them afloat, but it gives them enough time to try and turn things around. Besides, unlike most in the Android camp (except HTC) RIM is still making profits with their mobile efforts.

Actually if ActiveSynch is not already the Defacto standard for Enterprise email synch, it will be within 12 months. It is getting hard to find companies that have more users on BES than Activesynch.

Perhaps BBM is popular in your company, but iI have worked with at least 25 of the fortune 100 in the past 3-4 years and not one of them is using BBM.

People have a lot of convoluted reasons why RIM won't die. Unfortunately for RIM, none of them are valid. RIM will either do something dramatically different in the next 18 months or they will not exist in 5 years.
post #34 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

I'd rather have a @mac or @iCloud account. I don't like the @me for some reason...

Especially if your email address is RIGHTBACK, POKEFUN, THROWSTONES ...
post #35 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

Actually if ActiveSynch is not already the Defacto standard for Enterprise email synch, it will be within 12 months. It is getting hard to find companies that have more users on BES than Activesynch.

How hard have you been searching?

Quote:
Perhaps BBM is popular in your company, but iI have worked with at least 25 of the fortune 100 in the past 3-4 years and not one of them is using BBM.

BBM is quite popular amongst teenagers.

Quote:
People have a lot of convoluted reasons why RIM won't die. Unfortunately for RIM, none of them are valid. RIM will either do something dramatically different in the next 18 months or they will not exist in 5 years.

"None of them are valid." Just like that, without a single reason, you have dismissed every convoluted reason? Your debating skills are woefully inadequate, Wovel.
post #36 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


So your claim to expertise is that you can't hold down a job? BBM is quite popular amongst teenagers.

Have you ever heard of a consultant?
post #37 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by lifelong View Post

Have you ever heard of a consultant? No? [REDACTED]

Welcome to the forums. We don't insult others here.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #38 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Welcome to the forums. We don't insult others here.

Oh, I see...

Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

So your claim to expertise is that you can't hold down a job?

...but passive agressive insults are OK.
post #39 of 54
So, will I need the dock anymore for my iPhone/iPod except for convenient charging? In addition to whatever else it does, it sounds like iCloud may effectively be the wireless syncing people have wanted or am I missing something?
post #40 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikep123 View Post

So, will I need the dock anymore for my iPhone/iPod except for convenient charging? In addition to whatever else it does, it sounds like iCloud may effectively be the wireless syncing people have wanted or am I missing something?

You're missing that we know nothing about it yet, so you shouldn't get your hopes up.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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