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Wall Street expects iCloud to drive sales of Apple's iOS devices

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
The newly announced iCloud service is expected to further drive sales of iOS devices as users become even more tied in to Apple's increasingly proprietary ecosystem, analysts on Wall Street believe.

Some of the most prominent analysts offered their take on iCloud, iOS 5 and Mac OS X 10.7 Lion following Monday's keynote presentation at the annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Most were wowed by iCloud, viewing it as an important component of Apple's product strategy.

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster said Apple is increasing the likelihood that consumers will buy multiple devices. A central drive for Apple will be the free iCloud service, which will automatically share contacts, calendars, messages, photos, apps and music purchased on iTunes.

Going even further, Apple has made it easier for users to cut the cord to their PC. The new iOS 5 mobile operating system will make it possible for users to operate their iPhone or iPad without tethering to a computer and syncing with iTunes.

Apple's decision to make iCloud free will eliminate about 0.3 percent of Apple's revenue in 2011, Munster believes. By his calculations, that number will be easily offset by higher sales of devices.

Munster's overweight rating on AAPL stock and $554 price target also do not take into account pricing on Lion, so in his view the low $29.99 cost of the Mac OS upgrade will not have an impact on his numbers. He also noted that users who make the upgrade to Lion will be more likely to stick with the Mac platform.



Gleacher & Company

iCloud will increase the "stickiness" of the Apple ecosystem, analyst Brian Marshall believes. And while the service will be a financial benefit for Apple in the long run, he does not see it moving the company's "financial needle" in the near future.

Relative to the previews of iOS 5 and Lion, Marshall believes iCloud stole the show, as he called the service "brimming with functionality." He also believes iCloud "will likely far exceed community expectations" with its list of features, including wireless sync, documents in the cloud, and iTunes in the Cloud.

Gleacher & Company has reiterated its "buy" rating and price target of $450 for AAPL stock. Marshall said the key risk for the company remains the health of Chief Executive Steve Jobs, and noted his physical appearance took "an unfortunate turn for the worse" since he last appeared at the iPad 2 introduction in March. "We wish him a full recovery," Marshall wrote.



RBC Capital Markets

iCloud positions Apple for a "post-PC" world, and is a "possible game changer" for the company, analyst Mike Abramsky wrote in his note to investors. Apple's vision with a closed ecosystem of hardware, services, software and applications could help drive the company's next leg of growth and valuation against the competing Google Android platform, he believes.

"By 'cutting the cord' to the PC, Apple may expand its addressable market by 4x, addressing the (about 3 billion) handset users who have a phone -- but not a PC," he wrote. "We believe we may see new devices in time, based off iCloud services."

Abramsky was also impressed by iOS 5 and Lion, which he said reflect Apple's "trademark user experience," highlighting convenience, simplicity and discoverability. The new products and services unveiled by Apple on Monday "have the potential to significantly expand and defend Apple's franchise," he said.

RBC Capital Markets has reiterated its outperform rating for AAPL stock, as well as its price target of $450.



Ticonderoga Securities

Analyst Brian White believes iCloud, Lion and iOS 5 further enhance Apple's ecosystem, and he was also encouraged by the appearance of Jobs at Monday's keynote. He believes the biggest announcement was iTunes in the Cloud.

"Clearly, the most anticipated app for iCloud was bringing iTunes into the cloud, allowing consumers to push already purchased songs into the cloud across Apple devices, while automatically downloading future song purchases across devices," he wrote.

White has reiterated his buy rating and 12-month price target of $612 for AAPL stock.

Deutsche Bank

"iCloud hits take-off velocity," analyst Chris Whitmore's note to investors reads. Like others, he didn't change his financial outlook for Apple based on iCloud, but he believes in time the service will attract new users and developers.

"We believe iCloud will greatly increase the stickiness of the Apple platform, particularly for multi-device iPad/iPhone/Mac owners, and further differentiate the AAPL platform in terms of scale and size," he said.

Whitmore has maintained a buy rating and price target of $450 for AAPL stock.



J.P. Morgan Research

Analyst Mark Moskowitz was less impressed than his peers, declaring there was "no wow factor at WWDC." Still, he believes iCloud and other improvements will likely keep Apple ahead of its competitors.

"While WWDC did not introduce a major, new product category or refresh, we think there were plenty of incremental building blocks for driving above-peer revenue growth," he said. "Of note, the iCloud service stands to further cement Apple's role in constructing a 'way of life' for the user."

Moskowitz and J.P. Morgan have maintained an "overweight" rating for AAPL stock, with a price target of $450.

JMP Securities

Analyst Alex Gauna is less bullish about AAPL stock than others on Wall Street, and he came away unimpressed with Monday's keynote, declaring it "cloudier, with less lightning bolts, than normal." He also said the presentation had "no real surprises," and was merely an evolutionary step for Apple.

Gauna noted that the company's stock dropped more than 1.5 percent in response to the keynote, and he said he agreed with the reaction from investors. He was particularly disappointed by the lack of new hardware, which he said is needed to "stem the tide of faster Android adoption, or to make enterprise inroads."

Still, Gauna said that Lion and iOS 5 updates are "likely to please the Apple faithful and keep Apple products best in class with regard to intuitiveness and usability." He also said iCloud should maintain the dominance of iTunes.

Gauna remains concerned about Apple's "ability to execute without a healthy CEO," and as such has reiterated a "Market Perform" rating for AAPL stock, without a set target price.
post #2 of 68
iCloud looks like it trumps ChromeOS.
post #3 of 68
Isn't this kind of the point? Build up even more of an ecosystem to attract sales to your devices and guarantee repeat sales to existing customers?

Someone needs to tell these analysts that making common sense statements does not make them smart.
post #4 of 68
We finally got the digital purchase peace-of-mind. This is big.

I can't believe some of the stuff I've bought over the year but it lends to another issue. If this stuff is going to follow me I need way of removing it. There are some apps and songs I simply do not want and even though that list of "items not on your device" is manageable now it will get more out of control as I test various apps and other media.


Quote:
Originally Posted by z3r0 View Post

iCloud looks like it trumps ChromeOS.

They are not comparable in that way.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

Isn't this kind of the point? Build up even more of an ecosystem to attract sales to your devices and guarantee repeat sales to existing customers?

Someone needs to tell these analysts that making common sense statements does not make them smart.

Yeah, but MobileMe and .Mac were suppose to make the ecosystem more attractive to the average user but they failed to do so. This is more-or-less analysts saying Apple finally got it right.
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Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
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post #5 of 68
Quote:
The newly announced iCloud service is expected to further drive sales of iOS devices as users become even more tied in to Apple's increasingly proprietary ecosystem, analysts on Wall Street believe.

Not for me. I'm still looking for the mid sized Mac I want. Without the Apple computer that meets my needs I'm not about to spend money on any of Apple's other products.

I'm an 18 year Mac user waiting for my next Mac. Only then will I begin to take a look at anything else from Apple.
post #6 of 68
on NPR this morning they explained how the lack of streaming service is such a let down and disappointment after all the hype leading up to the announcement that this would be the central point of the new features/functions.

Not sure if this is unique to Apple or not - but what the heck - the only people hyping streaming were basing their hype on their own speculation or their own personal preference or what other companies are doing. Not once did Apple ever "hype" streaming service coming soon.

Along with that - I suppose I can understand a certain level of hey that's not quite what I expected - but lets hold off on the disappointment until we can actually use it and see how it works before crying foul.

Hey I made a prediction based on speculation and it turned out to be wrong - gee I am so disappointed. Doesn't make any sense to me.
post #7 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

on NPR this morning they explained how the lack of streaming service is such a let down and disappointment after all the hype leading up to the announcement that this would be the central point of the new features/functions.

Not sure if this is unique to Apple or not - but what the heck - the only people hyping streaming were basing their hype on their own speculation or their own personal preference or what other companies are doing. Not once did Apple ever "hype" streaming service coming soon.

Along with that - I suppose I can understand a certain level of hey that's not quite what I expected - but lets hold off on the disappointment until we can actually use it and see how it works before crying foul.

Hey I made a prediction based on speculation and it turned out to be wrong - gee I am so disappointed. Doesn't make any sense to me.

I agree -- I have no interest in streaming. Why would I want to spend a lot of $$ on expensive bandwidth to stream music over 3G when portable storage is (relatively) much cheaper?
post #8 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

JMP Securities

Analyst Alex Gauna ... noted that the company's stock dropped more than 1.5 percent in response to the keynote, and he said he agreed with the reaction from investors.

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.
post #9 of 68
I'm not sure analysts see the implications for small business.

Its generally assumed that the business market is, and always will be, lost to the Mac platform, but this new ecosystem makes the Mac platform extremely attractive to small business < 50 users. Particularly those that want to dump the cost of Microsoft's exchange and server platform. Frankly, iWork is a reasonable replacement for office, and the back to may mac and other sharing features embedded in the new cloud service make this even more feature rich for small business. I foresee that users that grew up on iPods may be more likely to embrace the Apple experience in the work place due to perceived usability and low cost of ownership.
post #10 of 68
Alex Gauna uses all the tired old language of the sort of Windows advocate who mostly disappeared five years ago. Given the explosion in numbers of Apple users over the last 10 years, how stupid does he look talking about "Apple faithful", something which conjures up images of the huddle of Mac users left in the late '90s.

Perhaps he should leave his decrepit agenda behind, and actually try to give his clients useful (read profitable) advice.
post #11 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Analyst Mark Moskowitz was less impressed than his peers, declaring there was "no wow factor at WWDC." Still, he believes iCloud and other improvements will likely keep Apple ahead of its competitors.

I getting tired of disappointing comment we always get after WWDC. It's most of the time the same comments: No hardware announcement, boring OS demo, too much technical stuff. For god sake I think people and general media just forget about what the WWDC is really about. People tend to associate WWDC Keynote to old MacWorld Keynote which is not.

For everyone who is disappointed by WWDC announcement keep in mind this event is mean for developer only, the event is made for get developer in touch with new Apple software making sure they will be ready for Apple new OS in the next few months.
post #12 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.

Wasn't that guy who predicted the end of the world a former Goldman-Sachs Securities Broker?

I have wondered for YEARS why Apple stock goes DOWN after a KeyNote and or quarterly report in which they report all time high records for unit sales and iTunes sales and customer numbers and profit margin etc. Reports that from ANY other company on the planet would cause the stock prices to increase - but no - the hype and speculation and expectations placed on Apple are so high - that anything short of stunningly spectacular is seen as a disappointment - and merely impressive and ahead of the industry as a whole is seen as problematic.
post #13 of 68
While it's certainly true that this increases the value of staying in the Apple "ecosystem", I don't agree with the coercive tone used by analysts and pundits to describe this situation. To a very great extent -- certainly a far greater extent than one would imagine from casually listening to the punditocracy -- iOS and MacOS devices do not "lock-in" or otherwise strong-arm users into using things they don't want to use. For the most part, if you don't want to buy in to Apple's way of doing things, you don't have to. You can buy an iPhone yet use gmail, Pandora, Opera, and many other alternatives to Apple's apps. You don't have to use mobileMe (or iCloud) for synching -- you can use Exchange or other services. You can even play music bought from other music stores in iTunes and/or you can play iTunes songs on other devices (less true of video due to DRM, but that's the content owner's fault, not Apple's).

These Wall Street guys are still stuck in the Microsoft/Intel mentality of winning by monopolistic coercion rather than winning by making the best product. One of the vastly under-appreciated aspects of Apple's rise is that they have done it without monopolizing anything. Their two major platforms are iOS and OSX, and neither has anything close to the kind of market share that Microsoft has achieved with Windows or Intel with their x86 chips. You basically have to slice markets pretty thin in order to see big marketshares for Apple -- the mp3 player market is one where they have about 75% share (still less than MS or Intel) and the "tablet" market is one where they utterly dominate, but that most likely won't last.

I think this bias in favor of coercive monopolization is one reason that Apple's stock seems so lackluster. The Wall Streeters are worried that there isn't enough "lock-in" -- they're worried that people only buy Apple products because people like Apple products, not because they have no choice. What happens if people suddenly stop liking Apple products? What's to keep people buying Apple products even if they start to suck? -- that's the big worry for the Wall Street guys. But it's not Apple's worry -- it's Apple's obsession. Apple knows that their success depends on making great products and so they are more focused on that than any of their competitors. And that's why I have a lot more confidence in the future of AAPL than the wall street guys do.
post #14 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTac View Post

Not for me. I'm still looking for the mid sized Mac I want. Without the Apple computer that meets my needs I'm not about to spend money on any of Apple's other products.

I agreed with that sentiment when iMacs were underpowered, but they no longer are. The mid-sized option is now represented in the iMac lineup.
post #15 of 68
Why can't the tech wannabes get it through their thick heads that the world doesn't want, use, or even think about what they (the tech wannabes) consider absolutely essential? Why do you think Apple has seen so much success in recent years? It's precisely because they have ignored the tech wannabes want and have concentrated on what real people want and need, and actually like to use. It is my opinion that the tech wannabes have actually helped Apple succeed. They whine and pontificate about everything Apple puts out. They are insufferable bores to their families and any friends they may have. They probably drive more people TO Apple rather than away. To be sure the fanatical Apple fanboys are just as insufferable but there are less of them than the tech wannabes. A new Verizon television spot for their tablets shows a mother asking the sales person about tablets. Her nerdy, insufferable bore, pimply faced punk of a tech wannabe son starts peppering the sales person with the usual tech wannabe questions about, of course, Flash among other things. I'm sure this commercial is a big turn off to many people who have the same punk in their family.

Point is (and I do have one) is that most of these analysts fancy themselves techies. They are not. They have no clue what Apple is about. That's what scares me about Jobs leaving some day, that Apple will become the next Microsoft, a tech giant resting on its laurels and actually paying attention to analysts and investors.
post #16 of 68
If I couldn't share my documents on MobileMe because everything was sooooo slow, how will they expect things to run smoothly when *everyone* will be in/on/using the cloud?
post #17 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTac View Post

Not for me. I'm still looking for the mid sized Mac I want. Without the Apple computer that meets my needs I'm not about to spend money on any of Apple's other products.

I'm an 18 year Mac user waiting for my next Mac. Only then will I begin to take a look at anything else from Apple.

Are you talking about the mythical mini tower? Do you really expect that's ever going to happen? When such a marginal part of Apple's business is even desktops, when and even smaller single digit percentage of that market is buying MacPros, how could you possibly believe that what you want is in Apple's future?

For the very small minority of people buying MacPros, they want the space for expansion, so I'd be very surprised to see Apple change the current form factor in any measurable way for the time being.

Apple is on a path of narrowing and sharpening it's Mac product line, not building out to meet the needs of a small percentage of a small percentage of it's user base.

I don't want to seem harsh, but your desktop options are MacMini, iMac, or MacPro. If none of those "meet your needs", I don't see Apple ever releasing the Mac for you.
post #18 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The newly announced iCloud service is expected to further drive sales of iOS devices as users become even more tied in to Apple's increasingly proprietary ecosystem, analysts on Wall Street believe. ...

This characterization of Apple's ecosystem as "increasingly proprietary" is entirely mistaken. It's no more of less proprietary than it has always been. What it is now is increasingly complete, rich, seamless, transparent, enticing, compelling, ... take your pick, but not "increasingly proprietary".
post #19 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Why can't the tech wannabes get it through their thick heads that the world doesn't want, use, or even think about what they (the tech wannabes) consider absolutely essential? Why do you think Apple has seen so much success in recent years? It's precisely because they have ignored the tech wannabes want and have concentrated on what real people want and need, and actually like to use. It is my opinion that the tech wannabes have actually helped Apple succeed. They whine and pontificate about everything Apple puts out. They are insufferable bores to their families and any friends they may have. They probably drive more people TO Apple rather than away. To be sure the fanatical Apple fanboys are just as insufferable but there are less of them than the tech wannabes. A new Verizon television spot for their tablets shows a mother asking the sales person about tablets. Her nerdy, insufferable bore, pimply faced punk of a tech wannabe son starts peppering the sales person with the usual tech wannabe questions about, of course, Flash among other things. I'm sure this commercial is a big turn off to many people who have the same punk in their family.

Point is (and I do have one) is that most of these analysts fancy themselves techies. They are not. They have no clue what Apple is about. That's what scares me about Jobs leaving some day, that Apple will become the next Microsoft, a tech giant resting on its laurels and actually paying attention to analysts and investors.

+1 Great post!
Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member
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post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacTac View Post

Not for me. I'm still looking for the mid sized Mac I want. Without the Apple computer that meets my needs I'm not about to spend money on any of Apple's other products.

I'm an 18 year Mac user waiting for my next Mac. Only then will I begin to take a look at anything else from Apple.

I'm waiting for the 100MPG, non-hybrid, gasoline-powered, internal combustion automobile. I bet that comes before the "mid sized Mac [you] want" arrives. At this point, it's just irrational to be waiting for a Mac that's so obviously not going to be produced.
post #21 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11thIndian View Post

Are you talking about the mythical mini tower? Do you really expect that's ever going to happen? When such a marginal part of Apple's business is even desktops, when and even smaller single digit percentage of that market is buying MacPros, how could you possibly believe that what you want is in Apple's future?

For the very small minority of people buying MacPros, they want the space for expansion, so I'd be very surprised to see Apple change the current form factor in any measurable way for the time being.

Apple is on a path of narrowing and sharpening it's Mac product line, not building out to meet the needs of a small percentage of a small percentage of it's user base.

I don't want to seem harsh, but your desktop options are MacMini, iMac, or MacPro. If none of those "meet your needs", I don't see Apple ever releasing the Mac for you.

Also a good reply to that incessant b****ing and whining about wanting something that will be obsolete in less than 5 years.

If it was even a thought at Apple... it was laid to rest and buried over 6-7 years ago, the hey-day of towers.

@MacTac : Just curious... but what are/were you willing to pay for that mythical mini-tower?
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post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I agree -- I have no interest in streaming. Why would I want to spend a lot of $$ on expensive bandwidth to stream music over 3G when portable storage is (relatively) much cheaper?

AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.

We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.
post #23 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

AAPL lives in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.

We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.

*lives error* fixed

Anyway your answer does not address his question.

Why should he be paying for a service that is reliant on airwaves that can be known to have penetration issues, or limited range when he can simply find a simple physical storage medium for a one time purchase?

You can find a 32GB SD card for as low as $40 nowadays and it isn't depended on the internet to provide it's function.
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.

Wait a minute: the stock tanked 10 dollars during and after the conference. Clearly the announcements caused a yawn. let´s face it: it looks like real nice tweaks here and there, but there was no game changer. Only us Mac centric people understand the value of the product. Reminds me of the late 90´s: great products and minimal market response.

On another note: the current stock price is evidence that the market has not factored in the fact that there is an interim team running Apple.
post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.

We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.

+++

Why would you want to perpetually stream music is beyond me. Hard Drive space (or rather, Flash space) is FAR CHEAPER than streaming (and far, far more accessible).

Apple has taken the best of both worlds mid road option here. If you do want to access a song not currently with you, it will be available on the cloud. And its a download, so if you want to listen to it twice, you don't have to "stream" (fancy word for download) it twice.

Over the next 5 years, which of the following 2 are more plausible:
1) Flash memory capacity increases over tenfold for the same price
2) Carrier streaming bandwidth limits, and speeds, increase over tenfold at the same price (not even considering China/India, which have terribly expensive carrier data plans.)

The answer to this question should explain what the better forward looking choice is.
post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.

Also, *all* stock always "drops on news" (even good news). It's a well known phenomenon, but one that's generally ignored by analysts when they wish to intimate that the loss might actually be from another cause. The truth is, they don't know why the stock goes up or down a lot of the time and they are mostly just guessing.
post #27 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

AAPL leaves in the real world where carriers charge for data usage. Google and Amazon do not. The music service Apple offers is so much better then what either of the other two rushed to market when they caught wind of Apple's plans. It is the difference between a well planned service and something put together overnight.

We expect it from google, it is sad to see Amazon falling into that trap.

I think Apple still has some 'splainin" to do about their services because it seems to me that they *do* have streaming anyway (unless I'm just looking at it wrong).

If all the music you ever purchased is on a list on your phone, and touching one of the items makes it come streaming down to your phone, how is that not the same thing?

And once the match service starts up, it specifically states that songs that aren't matched "will be uploaded" (if you buy into the service). That means that if you pay the fee, there is a cloud of all your music that can be streamed to anywhere anytime on any device. So the 25 dollar a month thing actually *is* streaming, and is a cheaper, more reliable, and more flexible streaming option than Amazon or Google's.
post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elastic Reason View Post

I'm not sure analysts see the implications for small business.

Its generally assumed that the business market is, and always will be, lost to the Mac platform, but this new ecosystem makes the Mac platform extremely attractive to small business < 50 users. Particularly those that want to dump the cost of Microsoft's exchange and server platform. Frankly, iWork is a reasonable replacement for office, and the back to may mac and other sharing features embedded in the new cloud service make this even more feature rich for small business. I foresee that users that grew up on iPods may be more likely to embrace the Apple experience in the work place due to perceived usability and low cost of ownership.

I'm a small business owner and I agree that having an entire Apple ecosystem is so helpful! Switching our business over from the windows world to an apple world has sent productivity through the roof! I'm looking forward to iCloud and iOS 5.
post #29 of 68
"Analyst Alex Gauna is less bullish about AAPL stock than others on Wall Street, and he came away unimpressed with Monday's keynote, declaring it "cloudier, with less lightning bolts, than normal." He also said the presentation had "no real surprises," and was merely an evolutionary step for Apple."



What's "mere" about an "evolutionary step"? Primate...Human. So...he wanted "lightning bolts", "surprises", and something other than an evolutionary step. Interesting. Maybe a fan of Michael Bay movies?

Brian: "Do you even hear yourself when you talk?"
Peter Griffin: "I drift in and out."
post #30 of 68
No kidding, Wall Street. Meanwhile those same 'geniuses' are back to destroying our economy with not even a slap on the wrist.
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

Wasn't that guy who predicted the end of the world a former Goldman-Sachs Securities Broker?

I have wondered for YEARS why Apple stock goes DOWN after a KeyNote and or quarterly report in which they report all time high records for unit sales and iTunes sales and customer numbers and profit margin etc. Reports that from ANY other company on the planet would cause the stock prices to increase - but no - the hype and speculation and expectations placed on Apple are so high - that anything short of stunningly spectacular is seen as a disappointment - and merely impressive and ahead of the industry as a whole is seen as problematic.

AAPL has been substantially underperforming the markets for the last 6-9 months. The price targets from the analysts in the $450 range are beginning to look like a sick joke and the ones in the $500-600 range appear to be the result of pharmaceutical abuse.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #32 of 68
I believe the cloud system is brilliant! I see it going beyond the ipod, iphone, ipad. I think we will see a whole new generation of computers pioneered by apple in the next couple of years.. It is not the dead of the PC as many even apple fans predict, it is the start of a new generation of PCs.. I am salivating here..

George
post #33 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post

Isn't this kind of the point? Build up even more of an ecosystem to attract sales to your devices and guarantee repeat sales to existing customers?

Someone needs to tell these analysts that making common sense statements does not make them smart.

Yep. The software drives the hardware sales (which is where the money is).

Someone also needs to tell them to stop with the comments about Jobs physical appearance etc. The man had pancreatic cancer and a liver transplant. There's no 'full recovery' from that. Also, harping on Jobs just continues the attitude that Jobs = Apple. And he doesn't. They have done fine with him in his semi retirement these past few months and will continue to if (as I suspect) he never actually returns from his medical leave and instead turns over the reigns to Cook permanently while taking a new role as member of the board and active consultant (unlike Woz who is apparently listed as a consultant and does no actual work)

Personally the only thing I was dismayed about was no mention of any upgrade (paid of course) about 5 GB of space, in idisk type feature and nothing about iweb etc. I know a lot of folks that use that stuff and it would be nice to see it addressed. It would also be nice to see them taking on Blogger, Wordpress etc with functionality more like that (fully customizable templates, imbed HTML without the iframe junk, keywording/searching, HTML5) and even perhaps an iWeb for iOS that allows for writing and uploading blog entries from your device. They could even perhaps seamlessly work in your photostream, Ping etc.
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by procapital View Post

I believe the cloud system is brilliant! I see it going beyond the ipod, iphone, ipad. I think we will see a whole new generation of computers pioneered by apple in the next couple of years.. It is not the dead of the PC as many even apple fans predict, it is the start of a new generation of PCs.. I am salivating here..

George





Yep. Here it comes.
post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

Wasn't that guy who predicted the end of the world a former Goldman-Sachs Securities Broker?

I have wondered for YEARS why Apple stock goes DOWN after a KeyNote and or quarterly report in which they report all time high records for unit sales and iTunes sales and customer numbers and profit margin etc. Reports that from ANY other company on the planet would cause the stock prices to increase - but no - the hype and speculation and expectations placed on Apple are so high - that anything short of stunningly spectacular is seen as a disappointment - and merely impressive and ahead of the industry as a whole is seen as problematic.

I can think of two reasons why AAPL drops after big announcements.

1) Because it nearly always runs up in anticipation, and short term traders take their profit at 10:00AM.

2) Because Speed Trading companies program their computers to sense a quick buck on any kind of volatility--one being the kind that the run up and sell off above generates.
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post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by PersonMan View Post

Um, correct me if I'm wrong, but AAPL stock ALMOST ALWAYS drops a bit after a keynote. I don't think this is a reaction to the content of the keynote.

There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.

A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.

Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.
post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.

A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.

Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.

This kind of analysis isn't very enlightening. The only comparison that really matters is performance against broader market indexes. By these measurements, AAPL is in very bad shape as an investment and has been for more than six months now.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #38 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

There's always a buck or two but this was a bit bigger.

A lot of folks believe it is because people were certain, despite the hints from Apple, that they were going to whip out new iphone hardware.

Which just shows that they weren't paying attention to the hints or that little incident in Japan and the unimportant detail that said country produces many of the components for everything, including iphones.

IMO, the analysts don't get it (in spite of their high price projections for the stock). I just saw a TV report which obsessed over the fact that no new iPhone was announced, even though it was well known that there wasn't going to be one. That would only matter if iPhone (or iPad) sales were in decline, but they're not. Apple has far out-performed every other tech company in the worst economic environment in 80 years. What more do they want?

While I will only personally use a small percentage of what was shown yesterday, Apple demonstrated once again in the enhancements and new functionalities that it is staying many steps ahead of the competition. The competition is still playing catch-up to Apple's look and feel and here Apple is moving far ahead yet again. In practice, the promise of being able to have the same songs on all devices auto synched is no big deal to me - I don't add music that often. But the simplicity of such wireless synching is a big deal and along with the other enhancements will IMO encourage multiple device sales.

My assumption based on the rumors is that the iPhone 5 will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, so in spite of high sales, I would actually expect a stock price drop in the Fall when it's released. I would expect somewhat bigger changes for the next iPad. But I don't see Apple launching another completely new hardware product category in the next 2-3 years and this seems to disappoint the analysts who now expect Apple to do something revolutionary every year.

What I saw yesterday was Apple constantly thinking about improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost. While the analysts see that as no new revenue streams, I see that as a company that's looking at those improvements to drive additional sales from current customers and new sales from PC converts. I don't see anyone else making those kinds of strides.
post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

This kind of analysis isn't very enlightening. The only comparison that really matters is performance against broader market indexes. By these measurements, AAPL is in very bad shape as an investment and has been for more than six months now.

The broader indexes are up 34% in the last year? Because Apple stock is, right?
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post

IMO, the analysts don't get it (in spite of their high price projections for the stock). I just saw a TV report which obsessed over the fact that no new iPhone was announced, even though it was well known that there wasn't going to be one. That would only matter if iPhone (or iPad) sales were in decline, but they're not. Apple has far out-performed every other tech company in the worst economic environment in 80 years. What more do they want?

While I will only personally use a small percentage of what was shown yesterday, Apple demonstrated once again in the enhancements and new functionalities that it is staying many steps ahead of the competition. The competition is still playing catch-up to Apple's look and feel and here Apple is moving far ahead yet again. In practice, the promise of being able to have the same songs on all devices auto synched is no big deal to me - I don't add music that often. But the simplicity of such wireless synching is a big deal and along with the other enhancements will IMO encourage multiple device sales.

My assumption based on the rumors is that the iPhone 5 will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, so in spite of high sales, I would actually expect a stock price drop in the Fall when it's released. I would expect somewhat bigger changes for the next iPad. But I don't see Apple launching another completely new hardware product category in the next 2-3 years and this seems to disappoint the analysts who now expect Apple to do something revolutionary every year.

What I saw yesterday was Apple constantly thinking about improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost. While the analysts see that as no new revenue streams, I see that as a company that's looking at those improvements to drive additional sales from current customers and new sales from PC converts. I don't see anyone else making those kinds of strides.

The analysts don't get it because they are forecasting stock performance that has virtually no chance of occurring unless the market perception of AAPL changes radically for the better. Since the breakdown in optimism for the stock has been proceeding steadily for the last 6-9 months now, I think it would be helpful to any AAPL bull's argument at this point to show what event or events will change that perception, rather than just tell us that the bullish analysts aren't bullish enough.

As for Apple "improving the customer experience and providing those improvements at little or no cost," this latest transition will probably be the most costly and disruptive of my entire experience with Apple, which goes back to 1984. Even the transitions from 68k to PPC and PPC to Intel, were handled more adroitly. And they were far more substantial and complex.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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