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Gartner cuts 2011 PC forecast; Microsoft considering own-brand Windows 8 tablet

post #1 of 50
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Gartner lowered its forecast Wednesday for global PC growth in 2011 as demand for netbooks continues to slump and Apple's iPad causes disruption, while Microsoft is reportedly considering launching its own brand of Windows 8 tablet PCs next year.

Gartner forecast

Research group Gartner indicated that it expects global PC shipments to grow 9.3 percent this year to 385 million units, down from its previous forecast of 10.5 percent, the Associated Foreign Press reports. Gartner had arrived at the 10.5 percent number in March after lowering its forecast from 15.9 percent growth in 2011.

"Consumer mobile PCs are no longer driving growth, because of sharply declining consumer interest in mini-notebooks," Gartner research director Ranjit Atwal said in a statement.

Atwal also sees the iPad as affecting sales, though he believes consumers are merely using the iPad to put off new PC purchases, rather than fully replace them. "Media tablets, such as the iPad, have also impacted mobile growth, but more because they have caused consumers to delay new mobile PC purchases rather than directly replacing aging mobile PCs with media tablets," he said. "We believe direct substitution of media tablets for mobile PCs will be minimal."

Gartner sees businesses as driving PC growth this year, as consumers appear to be "maintaining a tight rein on their spending" because of economic uncertainty. "Businesses sharply reduced replacements and extended PC lifetimes in response to the recession," said research analyst Raphael Vasquez. "Businesses have begun replacing aging PCs more vigorously."

Microsoft tablets

A new rumor suggests that Microsoft is looking into launching an own-brand tablet PC by the end of 2012, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.

In response to threats from Apple's continued growth with the iPhone, iPad and Macs, as well as Google's entry into the operating system market, "Microsoft plans to copy its branding strategy from product lines such as Xbox 360, Zune, Kin smartphone and TV, to compete in the tablet PC segment," DigiTimes reports.

The only Microsoft-branded product line that has seen success, however, is the Xbox 360. The Zune media player, the company's own-brand TVs and especially the Kin smartphone have all performed below expectations. Regardless, Microsoft is "still considering to launch an own-brand tablet PC and is proceeding on a low profile," sources said.

Sources also added that Microsoft would likely continue its plans for an Integrated Development Program alongside development of an own-brand tablet PC. Microsoft reportedly postponed the IDP, which places tight restrictions on chip vendors and OEMs building Windows 8 devices, after vendors expressed outrage at the restrictions.
post #2 of 50
Microsoft hardware and Microsoft software? Then someone would actually have to take the blame when calling for tech support? Can they handle that?
post #3 of 50
"A new rumor suggests that Microsoft is looking into launching an own-brand tablet PC by the end of 2012 . . . . "

BY THE END OF NEXT YEAR? The world has now been subjected to a new stratum of vaporware speculation and rumors! V-A-P-O-R-W-A-R-E rules! This is Potemkin Villages on steroids! Everyone, grab your pitchforks and torches and short AAPL, for MSFT has once again promised us the moon and the stars in our pockets. Holding my breath now for the NEW AND IMPROVED COURIER . . . .
post #4 of 50
Two comments -
1 - Calling iPads (or other similar tablets) "media tablets" shows ignorance and undermines the analysis.
2 - Oh Microsoft, you seem so lost these days. After so many failed initiatives and launches why would you approach this in a low key fashion. If you are going for your own brand tablet do it big. Wow the world. If not then don't bother. Save yourself the trouble and pain.
post #5 of 50
Last week I would have agreed, that very few people would get an iPad instead of a computer. Come this fall, though, that will start to happen more and more!

Meanwhile, I definitely see the delayed purchase happening. People make do with their old PC, not getting a new one because theyre using the iPad instead. Eventually, theyll probably get a new PC. But theyll keep them longer and buy them less often. That delay, then, really IS fewer PC sales total.

And an iPad can (and does) already replace a second computer for many people. Or a third computer, or a computer for someone else in the same household. Thats lost PC sales too.

I know people who have never owned a computer because theyve shared their roommates or families machines. Eventually theyd have gotten one... except now, I think they may not! They love the iPad and the iPad is cheap AND good (a rare combination).
post #6 of 50
Besides the software licensing model, has Microsoft ever been the first to market with anything, rather than copying?

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #7 of 50
[QUOTE=ijordan;1878990]Microsoft hardware and Microsoft software? Then someone would actually have to take the blame when calling for tech support? Can they handle that?[/QUOT
I don't doubt they could handle it but why would they want to. MS would loose so much money if they start making their own pcs.
post #8 of 50
Xbox 360 is only a success if you can consider a product That has lost the company many billions over the past decade only to win second place in the console market.

Although in ms's defense the kinect is truly an undoubted success.
post #9 of 50
I would advise Microsoft to come out with a brown ZunePad, it can't fail.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
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nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #10 of 50
I have put together several PC's, have a 5 year old laptop ... do most of my so-called productivity stuff on a Mac Mini ... and now we have an iPad2 ... For e-mail, surfing the internet, organizing photos, a little bit of music, blogging, word processing, calendar, contacts, journaling. That's pretty much it. Why do I need a faster PC ... My 5 year old Laptop works very well. I can't out type it at 80 wpm.

Why the iPad and the acceptance explosion. It is intuitive, simple to use, it's fast, gorgeous screen ... it simply works and works well for the above functions ... I'll bet most people aren't much different. Customization (a la Geek land) who cares? Jail break ... who cares?

Now with the rapid improvements coming in upgraded OS from Apple, the rest of the industry is scrambling.

Now with wireless setup on the horizon ... iMessaging, and the many new functions underdevelopment ... Microsoft, et al had better wake up and not just criticize. Apple is on a big roll, is growing and innovating rapidly. They're doing it.
post #11 of 50
I think Microsoft would be better served trying to improve Windows 7. They missed the boat, bigtime, on smartphones and tablets, but building their own devices may be the only way they can drive Windows into this segment. With all the focus, on Android by smartphone and tablet OEM's, who is going to make the investment in Microsoft? Trying to copy Apple's model of building their own hardware has been challenging for them unless they hire some outside talent. Personally, I think they should can Balmer and bring in a CEO who can re-invent the company...
post #12 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Besides the software licensing model, has Microsoft ever been the first to market with anything, rather than copying?

I'm going to say...yyyyyno

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #13 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I would advise Microsoft to come out with a brown ZunePad, it can't fail.

Somebody buy the domain, quick!

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #14 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

Last week I would have agreed, that very few people would get an iPad instead of a computer. Come this fall, though, that will start to happen more and more!

Meanwhile, I definitely see the “delayed purchase” happening. People make do with their old PC, not getting a new one because they’re using the iPad instead. Eventually, they’ll probably get a new PC. But they’ll keep them longer and buy them less often. That “delay,” then, really IS fewer PC sales total.

And an iPad can (and does) already replace a second computer for many people. Or a third computer, or a computer for someone else in the same household. That’s lost PC sales too.

I know people who have never owned a computer because they’ve shared their roommates’ or families’ machines. Eventually they’d have gotten one... except now, I think they may not! They love the iPad and the iPad is cheap AND good (a rare combination).



Totally agree, I have a 5 year old laptop and bought an iPad instead of buying a new one. I use my laptop for college related stuff, and I will buy one in 1-3 years. But the iPad 2 delayed my buy from 6 months ago to 2 years from now
post #15 of 50
Quote:
The only Microsoft-branded product line that has seen success, however, is the Xbox 360.

I don't know if this is splitting hairs... but, if we exclude software (obviously), hasn't the Microsoft Natural Keyboard, and the Intellimouse (Microsoft Mouse) both been successful "product lines" (at least initially)? I think I'd say their successes have been stretched out almost to the breaking point, but they're still there.

~ CB
post #16 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A new rumor suggests that Microsoft is looking into launching an own-brand tablet PC by the end of 2012, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.

Sources also added that Microsoft would likely continue its plans for an Integrated Development Program alongside development of an own-brand tablet PC.

Not such a bad idea if it's more like a reference design that Microsoft sell, kind of like the way Google uses the Nexus S.

The still need to allow OEM's to adapt and customize though, as long as the IDP keeps it under control and guarantees the UX.

I'm sure the DoJ antitrust oversight that ended in May previously prevented Microsoft from doing stuff like this, among other things.



Quote:
Originally Posted by karmadave View Post

They missed the boat, bigtime, on smartphones and tablets, but building their own devices may be the only way they can drive Windows into this segment. With all the focus, on Android by smartphone and tablet OEM's, who is going to make the investment in Microsoft?

I think Nokia fits into the phone side. Sure, they aren't owned by Microsoft, but they are essentially Microsoft's phone hardware arm (or Microsoft is Nokia's software arm, depending on how you view the relationship).

I think your point of OEM's being spread between Android and Windows is a good one. Microsoft don't just need OEM's to support Windows, they need them to focus on it.

That is one of the reasons I think, at a bare minimum, Microsoft should develop a Windows 8 tablet reference design to be given freely to OEM's.

As I said above I don't think it would be a bad idea to sell it as well.
post #17 of 50
The reason Xbox can be describe as a success is because Microsoft designed (the security) and built (broken-prone) it that way. Considering that all their Xboxes from v1 to Slim can be made to play pirate games but hardware faults stopped this ability mean that these same people will keep buying them so they could continue playing pirate games. Ask around people who play pirate games on Xbox how many Xbox consoles they have/bought you'll see why the number is high.
post #18 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splash-reverse View Post

The reason Xbox can be describe as a success is because Microsoft designed (the security) and built (broken-prone) it that way. Considering that all their Xboxes from v1 to Slim can be made to play pirate games but hardware faults stopped this ability mean that these same people will keep buying them so they could continue playing pirate games. Ask around people who play pirate games on Xbox how many Xbox consoles they have/bought you'll see why the number is high.

It's an interesting theory, but it's not backed by the facts.

X360 has the highest attach rate per console sold of the current console generation.
post #19 of 50
Apple should release a soda, just to watch MS decide to slavishly copy the idea. Apple soda would obviously be apple flavored. MS I'm not quite sure...
post #20 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Apple soda would obviously be apple flavored. MS I'm not quite sure...

Sweat?
post #21 of 50
Microsoft and the monkey at its helm are stumbling around like a loveable, senile and incontinent family pet that's lost its vision to diabetes-it can't see where it's going or remember where it's been.

Maybe we'll slap together an iPad competitor next year? By that time, Apple will have iPad 4 in the pipeline at a price that surely will flummox Redmond; what was it Dell said about closing up shop and giving money back to the investors? Stay tuned for another "disappointing" quarter from MS

To quote Daffy Duck....Oh Bruuuuuther
post #22 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I would advise Microsoft to come out with a brown ZunePad, it can't fail.

... at the end of 2012 you should have added.
post #23 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

Last week I would have agreed, that very few people would get an iPad instead of a computer. Come this fall, though, that will start to happen more and more!

Excellent point, nagromme! I'm seriously considering doing this. I have an iP4 and an orig. intel 20" iMac. I just sold my orig. intel MB.

I run a real estate business and am in the process of simplifying all my processes, charts, reports, presentations, etc., to all be done on an iPad 2 using iWork.

Admittedly, reconfiguring everything for the iPad will take some effort, but once it's on the iPad it's just a question of updating said reports with monthly data. Which can be done sitting by the lake sipping a beer!

With an iPad 2, an iP4 (both running iOS 5), an ATV and iCloud, I'm good to go.

Simplify the business and simplify my tech gadgetry. No stand alone camera's, no stand alone GPS units, no stand alone video camera, no ext. HD. Not to mention all the un-needed ugly pwr bricks and cables!

All thanks to Stevo and Apple. I love it!

Best
post #24 of 50
The Microsoft branded tablet is nuts. First, their brand is nearly worthless -- maybe even harmful. I'll bet WP7 would be more popular if it didn't have the names Microsoft and Windows associated with it. Second, they have nothing to bring to the hardware design relative to the likes of Samsung or HTC. Third, this totally undermines their business model which is to sell OS software to OEMs.
post #25 of 50
Since the PC/Mac "will just be another device" on iCloud, maybe its time to consolidate our desktops into a single desktop supporting a cluster of iPads. Either a top end Mac Mini, or a 27" iMac for whatever heavy-hauling we might need. Sep. user accounts for everyone, remote control to the iMac when I don't need to be at the desk. You know, that sounds very workable. Add in Apple TV for content in the family room - I potentially could drop cable TV as well.


Chime in folks - downsides? Something I'm missing?
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post #26 of 50
Quote:
Microsoft considering own-brand Windows 8 tablet

So Microsoft is going to back stab their "partners" yet again? Imagine that! Not like this has never happened before.
post #27 of 50
MicroSoft should stay out of the hardware, but i understand why they are doing it. Look at Windows Phone 7 adoption. Most WP7 phones are Android phones that were rebranded with WP7 loaded. Android ate WP7s market and partners.

MS should have Nokia build their W8 tablet. That is why they "bought" them right? (I mean a back door "buy".) To have someone building devices for WP7 only. Now they can add W8 tablets. Still at the rate of change at Nokia it will still be the end of next year or Nokia would have the hardware and MS would have incomplete SW like the RIM Playbook. Other also rans in the tablet market would sell their tablets with W8, but it would be the same rebranding of Android devices with W8 loaded.

Overall still a big MS fail.
post #28 of 50
"The Zune media player, the company's own-brand TVs and especially the Kin smartphone have all performed below expectations."

That is a rather kind way of saying it ... but these products have come no where close to expectations.

MS has become the IBM of the 1970's and 1980's ... big, fat, dumb and incapable of innovating anything. They can only follow Apple at this point, and they have been failing at that too (see above).

MS have been in their own way for two decades. They have lot's of talented people, but their leadership has not set the correct focus.

The OS is still too complicated to use (I know, I have to provide family technical support to those who still use MS products). Vista was a joke, Windows 7 is a little better, but still can't come close to OS X in terms of overall user experience.

Granted there are plenty of satisfied Windows users, but then most of those have not tried the Mac and so have no way to compare.

Ballmer needs to step aside and they need to bring in someone who will refocus the company.
post #29 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Besides the software licensing model, has Microsoft ever been the first to market with anything, rather than copying?

R&D = Rewrap & Disguise
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post #30 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Apple should release a soda, just to watch MS decide to slavishly copy the idea. Apple soda would obviously be apple flavored. MS I'm not quite sure...

What a cool idea. Apple flavored Apple soda. All natural. iSoda

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Mac IIcx, Mac Quadra 800, Mac Performa 5200, Power Mac 8600, LaserWriter, iPhone 3G, iPad 3G, iPhone 4S | MacBook Pro, 27" iMac, iPad 3 LTE

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post #31 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Apple should release a soda, just to watch MS decide to slavishly copy the idea. Apple soda would obviously be apple flavored. MS I'm not quite sure...


Okay this made me laugh
post #32 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dickprinter View Post

Besides the software licensing model, has Microsoft ever been the first to market with anything, rather than copying?

Yep, see iOS 5 feature list for examples
post #33 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by mercury99 View Post

What a cool idea. Apple flavored Apple soda. All natural. iSoda

Don't call it iSoda sounds wimpy. Call it iDrank so MS could call theirs Zuds.
post #34 of 50
Let MS try manufacturing its own things the way Apple does (or doesn't depending on if you count contracting with others to do the work). Is it even possible for MS to drop their OS and create something new?

HP is moving in the direction of being independent of MS. I hope it succeeds in dumping MS. I wish Dell would adopt a Linux distribution for their products (HP too). That way users could have a better computing experience without the crap that comes along with MS. Doing this would spur more programmers to create awesome programs for Linux. It would also help them eliminate the need for so many technical support telephone staff. All Dell and HP would need to do is be sure that all of the drivers necessary to run videos and everything else were pre-configured in their computers.

Businesses need to get over the idea that all computers must be able to run MS Office products. It's time to move on and get something better running on Linux. If there is an office program out there that is free or for a fee, that works as well as MS Office, they really need a better PR team. I haven't heard of one.

I have OpenOffice and I've heard of Libre. They work well but not quite as good from the reports I've read. Honestly, if you think about it, the office needs are the only reason MS continues to exist as the default OS on most of the computers sold in the world. Manufacturers just need to step up and just say no to MS and begin offering Linux machines along side MS products (and this time not give up on the idea). It's the only way they'll ever lower their need for technical support people.

Smallwheels
post #35 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Firefly7475 View Post

It's an interesting theory, but it's not backed by the facts.

X360 has the highest attach rate per console sold of the current console generation.

I don't have any clue for Xbox success, but one thing for sure. No other company beside Micosoft would still alive with the horrible Xbox reliability and fail rate.
post #36 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by xSamplex View Post

Apple should release a soda, just to watch MS decide to slavishly copy the idea. Apple soda would obviously be apple flavored. MS I'm not quite sure...

Well obviously it would be Zune flavour \
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Believe nothing, no matter where you heard it, not even if I have said it, if it does not agree with your own reason and your own common sense.
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post #37 of 50
I hope it comes stock with a big picture of Ballmer's sweating, stressed-out face as a desktop pic.

Cheers,
Cameron
post #38 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

The Microsoft branded tablet is nuts. First, their brand is nearly worthless -- maybe even harmful.

This says it all. MS is paying the price for all the years and years of frustration people have had to suffer using Windows 3.0 thru Windows Vista. Sure MS has made a fine OS with Windows7... but it's too late. I think Windows is viewed much like people view cable companies... many people are neutral toward them and the rest loath them, yet the product is necessary and the options are greatly restricted, so they are put up with.

Now if MS puts out a product that is approximately equal to an Apple product (maybe a little worse... or even a little better) I think the MS brand will hurt them. People will not necessarily make the assumption that the product is a top-notch. Where, with Apple, it is quite the opposite.
post #39 of 50
Bit of topic. But could anybody please explain why it is taking SO long for HP to get into the Tablet Wars. I can understand that they are trying to get it right. But man they have had all the Palm smarts and engineers for about two long years. And I personally think that the Palm OS was the closest thing to iOS.
post #40 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by juandl View Post

Bit of topic. But could anybody please explain why it is taking SO long for HP to get into the Tablet Wars. I can understand that they are trying to get it right. But man they have had all the Palm smarts and engineers for about two long years. And I personally think that the Palm OS was the closest thing to iOS.

I think WebOS is facing the same challenge of Google with Android 3.0. They come out quickly with an tablet augmented UI from a Phone OS, but there still a lot of work to do in its API before releasing the platform to developer. HP already state WebOS was underfund we created by Palm, so WebOS backend can be a ugly mess.
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