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Apple set to overtake Nokia as Samsung becomes world's largest smartphone maker

post #1 of 47
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An inevitable shakeup in worldwide smartphone rankings is set to take place in the coming months, when Apple is expected to surpass Nokia in smartphone sales, and Samsung will become the world's largest smartphone maker.

Nokia has led the global smartphone market since 1996, but that reign is set to end this quarter, when Samsung will be the worlds' largest smartphone maker, according to a new prediction from Japanese market analysis firm Nomura. Reporting on the prediction on Monday, Reuters said that Apple is also said to move past Nokia, leaving the Finnish handset maker in third place.

"Nokia looks set to relinquish its smartphone crown to Samsung and Apple," the research note reportedly says. "Further emphasizing the shift in power to Asia is our forecast for HTC to almost match Nokia during 2012."

For Apple to surpass Nokia in hardware sales would be a major milestone for the Cupertino, Calif., iPhone maker. Apple just entered the smartphone business in 2007, but in less than four years it has become the company's best-selling and most profitable product.

The arrival of the iPhone, as well as the growth of the Android platform, have caused considerable problems for Nokia. Earlier this year, Stephen Elop, formerly of Microsoft, took over as the handset maker's chief executive and quickly embraced the Windows Phone platform over its own dying Symbian mobile operating system.

Nokia is still the world's largest cell phone maker, where it maintains a lead over Samsung in a less profitable market where Apple does not compete. But in that market as well, Nokia is losing ground to "more nimble Asian rivals," the report said.



In terms of the total mobile phone market -- including both smartphones and "feature" phones -- Nokia was said to command 29.2 percent with shipments of 108.5 million units in the first quarter of 2011, according to IDC. Samsung was in second with 18.8 percent share on sales of 70 million units. Apple came in fourth, with sales of 18.7 million iPhones good for a 5 percent total market share.

Beyond unit sales, Apple became the largest phone vendor in the world by revenue this January. In its winter 2010 quarter, Apple's iPhone handset and accessories sales hit $10.47 billion, topping Nokia's devices and services division, which took in $9.7 billion.
post #2 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Steve doesn't care one bit about market share.

You keep believing that. See how far it gets you.

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post #3 of 47
For the first quarter of 2011, LG was third with 6.6% share on sales of 24.5 million units.
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post #4 of 47
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Originally Posted by city View Post

For the first quarter of 2011, LG was third with 6.6% share on sales of 24.5 million units.

Thanks for the missing data.
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post #5 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Steve doesn't care one bit about market share.




Market share is used as leverage against suppliers to get better (cheaper) component prices.

If you think Steve doesnt care about market share, then you've certainly havent seen his keynote speeches for the past 5 years.

What is usually the first couple of slides that Steve talks about?

Exactly.

"Like I said before, share price will dip into the $400."  - 11/21/12 by Galbi

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"Like I said before, share price will dip into the $400."  - 11/21/12 by Galbi

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post #6 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Steve doesn't care one bit about market share.

Apple and Steve care very much for profit marketshare. What they don't care about is unit marketshare if it comes at the expense of profit.
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post #7 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Steve doesn't care one bit about market share.

Steve cares about everything. I can't imagine there's a single metric that he wouldn't prefer to dominate. I wouldn't be surprised to see an iPhone Nano sometime in the not-too-distant future as a way of furthering the familiarity and foot traffic related to the brand.
post #8 of 47
New York City has seven major bridges -- all of which are the longest in the world.
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #9 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galbi View Post




Market share is used as leverage against suppliers to get better (cheaper) component prices.

If you think Steve doesnt care about market share, then you've certainly havent seen his keynote speeches for the past 5 years.

What is usually the first couple of slides that Steve talks about?

Exactly.

Since Apple has a very limited product line using similar or identical components, they're leverage with suppliers far exceeds anyone else. Marketshare from a diverse collection of products does not help supplier leverage anywhere near as much.
post #10 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Apple and Steve care very much for profit marketshare. What they don't care about is unit marketshare if it comes at the expense of profit.

Except in financial conference calls they never mention profit marketshare ( in fact even there they dont, analysts work it out) . In keynotes they do mention market sharewhen they are ahead, or coming on strong. There is the famous 90% marketshare claim for iPads, for instance. iPod market share. iTunes market share. Every single time the share looks good, it is up there on a graph.

I would say that Steve is obsessed with Market Share.
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post #11 of 47
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Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Except in conference alls they never mention that metric

They always mention their profits in their conference calls. They even break it down between product categories and regions and mention the growth rate differences YoY.
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post #12 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

They always mention their profits in their conference calls. They even break it down between product categories and regions and mention the growth rate differences YoY.

Yes, and thats what except in conference calls means. Only there. Not in Keynotes.

Thats what conference alls are for. And Jobs doesn't even turn up for most.
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post #13 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galbi View Post




Market share is used as leverage against suppliers to get better (cheaper) component prices.

If you think Steve doesnt care about market share, then you've certainly havent seen his keynote speeches for the past 5 years.

What is usually the first couple of slides that Steve talks about?

Exactly.

Maybe the OP meant "hardware" market share, which Jobs rarely talks about.
post #14 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga View Post

...iPhone Nano...



Get off that kick. It'll only cause you pain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wovel View Post

Since Apple has a very limited product line using similar or identical components, they're leverage with suppliers far exceeds anyone else. Marketshare from a diverse collection of products does not help supplier leverage anywhere near as much.

Who says more marketshare demands a more "diverse" offering of products? That's crazy.

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post #15 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galbi View Post




Market share is used as leverage against suppliers to get better (cheaper) component prices.

If you think Steve doesnt care about market share, then you've certainly havent seen his keynote speeches for the past 5 years.

What is usually the first couple of slides that Steve talks about?

Exactly.

Yes, apple show those slide all the time since that is what world cares about, however, I can tell you that apple does not always get parts at the lowest cost, they trade this off for other more important things like supply flexibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Apple and Steve care very much for profit marketshare. What they don't care about is unit marketshare if it comes at the expense of profit.


Exactly, Apple only cares about profits, as longs as they are making more per unit than anyone else is all they care about, profits allows them to continue to invest in the next products faster than the competitor, this is why Apple is sitting on $50B in the bank, and they continue to come out with new product faster than anyone else. They have the money to continue to invest in the future.

This is what most people fail to understand and the wall street idiot do not realize that think only selling more unit than anyone else is all that matters.
post #16 of 47
IMO Nokia will continue to fall. Those still buying Nokia today are largely symbian fans - lets see how quickly they jump ship when Nokia produces mainly Win7 high end phones.

Big wins coming up for android and apple.
post #17 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Apple and Steve care very much for profit marketshare. What they don't care about is unit marketshare if it comes at the expense of profit.

And if it comes at the expense of beautiful and functional design. This may change over time but it is still the most important factor.
post #18 of 47
Unit sales are directly linked to app market and itunes profitability. It affects not only component suppliers but also developers and contents providers. Apple will have to diverse its product lines in order to maintain its market share by unit sales.
post #19 of 47
The last Nokia phone I had is the last one I will ever own. It was nearly junk. The manual was so poorly written that there were no instructions anywhere on how to adjust the volume. I had to look that up in a third-party forum.

Today I use a Motorola, which has a really crappy screen and horrible sound, and was over-priced at $100.

There is a really good reason why Apple sells a tenth as many phones as Nokia but makes nearly a billion more in revenue from its iPhone business. Quality is king.
post #20 of 47
By the way, Samsung is very flexible in a sense that they develop smartphones in multiple platforms: Android, its own Bada, and WP7. They could even make iOS phones if that can be licensed, lol. Wait a second, that could turn out to be a good strategy for Apple, lol.
post #21 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

Except in financial conference calls they never mention profit marketshare ( in fact even there they dont, analysts work it out).

Indeed - this is because 'profit marketshare' is extremely hard to measure accurately. Unlike marketshare itself which is available from market reserach surveys and from shipment figures, profit share has to be estimated from the various OEMs accounts. The accounts aren't even all published in the same regions under the same rules. Also there can be considerable motivation for a firm like Samsung to move profits from one division to another for tax purposes.

Revenue-share is somewhat more reliable because everybody at least agrees on what revenue is.

There is no doubt that Apple dominates the most profitable segments of the market, but it's unclear by exactly how much. There's also little doubt that Motorola and Sony Ericsson have had problems with profits, and that Nokia is seeing substantial profit erosion.
post #22 of 47
The situation for Nokia and MS is getting grimmer by the day. Nokia would have needed all the help from the sales channel they can get (in most countries that means: the carriers) to keep up Symbian smartphone sales until something else is ready.

Elop (and MS) have done everything possible to destroy that support:

- Carriers do not want to hear about your great ecosystem (the want to sell value added services themselves)
- Do not blast about the coming "dual-SIM phones" if carriers are your main distributor. They hate dual SIM phones, because it makes it easier for the customer to take them to the cleaners.
- Do not buy Skype and announce to bring it to WP7. There is nothing on earth the carriers despise more.

As a result there are more and more sales points that downright refuse to sell Nokia smartphones, all while Nokia's dumbphones are under extreme pricing pressure from Asian phone makers, and there are no signs that Symbian/Qt developers are moving to WP7/Silverlight in droves... To make it even better, HTC is sending clear signals that it will concentrate more on Android.

This whole Nokia/MS deal will end as one of the biggest management mistakes in history. And Elop will be kicked out before the year is over.
post #23 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by androider View Post

By the way, Samsung is very flexible in a sense that they develop smartphones in multiple platforms: Android, its own Bada, and WP7. They could even make iOS phones if that can be licensed, lol. Wait a second, that could turn out to be a good strategy for Apple, lol.

While it would never happen, a licenced iOS to Samsung in it's home Market of Korea would work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

This is what most people fail to understand and the wall street idiot do not realize that think only selling more unit than anyone else is all that matters.

Actually, wall street is obsessed with gross margin. In any conference call if Apple guide lower on margin they get a lot of questions. As far as wall street is concerned lower margins may not lead to over all market share increases, at least - prior to the fact - they cant be certain it will.

In any case Jobs is almost never at conference calls - when he gets on stage to talk about share, it is market share. Clearly this makes sense. No point getting on the WWDC and saying market share is static, but profits are up. Devs dont care.
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post #24 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by androider View Post

By the way, Samsung is very flexible in a sense that they develop smartphones in multiple platforms: Android, its own Bada, and WP7. They could even make iOS phones if that can be licensed, lol. Wait a second, that could turn out to be a good strategy for Apple, lol.

All that flexibility and they still lost marketshare in the US last quarter, in terms of total handsets. Samsung's problem is that Bada only plays in developing markets like South America, so their flexibility amounts to a choice between being a box-shifter for Android/WP7 or selling a budget system to developing nations. Now if Bada was a high value system like RIM or iOS then they'd be in a genuinely good place.

Nokia's spectacular fall from grace may buy Samsung some time, but the only Android/WP7 maker that really seems genuinely strong right now is HTC.
post #25 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairb View Post

IMO Nokia will continue to fall. Those still buying Nokia today are largely symbian fans - lets see how quickly they jump ship when Nokia produces mainly Win7 high end phones.

Big wins coming up for android and apple.

Nokia's CEO compared the company to a "burning oil platform." He told employees that. No wonder they are all jumping furiously into the sea, an analogy that Elop equated to dumping Nokia's Symbian for WP7. They simply have no choice.

Oh, and one other thing: Elop revealed that Nokia first approached Google, but Google wouldn't let them customize Android for Nokia's needs, so they went to Microsoft and worked out a deal where Microsoft would let Nokia do whatever they wanted with WP7 in exchange for using WP7. Ironic that Google would not let them do that with their so-called "open" platform.

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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #26 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Ironic that Google would not let them do that with their so-called "open" platform.

Google is backtracking on that big-time in the face of system fragmentation. They're also not keen on OEMs and carriers making Bing versions of Android - for obvious reasons.

Nokia could have customized an older Open Sourced version, but they couldn't have used the Android brand if they'd done that.
post #27 of 47
Huh, from the way the media is playing all of this one would think Apple and iOS is doomed because of Android.
post #28 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patranus View Post

Huh, from the way the media is playing all of this one would think Apple and iOS is doomed because of Android.

The difference, as many people have stated before, between android and ios in the market is that Android has many manufacturers and companies putting the software on their phones while Apple both makes their phones and the operating system for those phones. I think that if we were to take a look at the market share of android split up between each company you would see how much more market share Apple has then any single company running the android os.

I think that apple is doing quite well for themselves.
post #29 of 47
Who cares if Sammy sells more phones. They simply pump out every design that comes to mind, flood the market and repeat that crap all over again. In the end they will be in debt. Watch.
post #30 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Oh, and one other thing: Elop revealed that Nokia first approached Google, but Google wouldn't let them customize Android for Nokia's needs, so they went to Microsoft and worked out a deal where Microsoft would let Nokia do whatever they wanted with WP7 in exchange for using WP7. Ironic that Google would not let them do that with their so-called "open" platform.

I call BS. I think Elop wanted transition money and Google wasn't willing to pay up. Android is open. They can install whatever apps they want on there. I don't know how much more customizable it could get. Heck, the didn't have to really ask Google's permission if they didn't want to (though they wouldn't get Google's apps then).

Moreover, it smacks of hypocrisy when they cry that Android wasn't customizable enough and then adopt WP7 which is even less flexible (in spite of their special deal with MS). They might have some flexibility but no way they have as much as they would have gotten with Android. And ultimately they can't deviate from the tiled look of WP7's Metro UI.

I think Elop is just making excuses to cover up his money grab. And now that he's hitched Nokia's future to WP7, he has to trash talk Android as much as he can.
post #31 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post



Get off that kick. It'll only cause you pain.



Who says more marketshare demands a more "diverse" offering of products? That's crazy.

It is not a rule, it is also not crazy. It is reality for their competitors. Samsungs market share advantage does not translate to more leverage from suppliers because they make 10x the number of different smart phones than Apple does. They have a wide variety of configurations and I doubt there is any particular part they buy more of then Apple.
post #32 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jetz View Post

I call BS. I think Elop wanted transition money and Google wasn't willing to pay up. Android is open. They can install whatever apps they want on there. I don't know how much more customizable it could get. Heck, the didn't have to really ask Google's permission if they didn't want to (though they wouldn't get Google's apps then).

You are behind the times. For starters they do require google's permission to license Android. Without that permission they can use one of the earlier versions of Android that is now Open Source, but they cannot market the handset as being Android. As to being able to do what they want within Android - look at this article from Gizmodo

According to Bloomberg, Google has spent the last several months tightening the reigns on its Android partners. They're having licensees sign "non-fragmentation clauses" that give Mountain View final say over the platform tweaks that can cripple a perfectly good phone. The OEMs are up in arms, obviously, but they shouldn't be. Because what Google's doing is making sure consumers know exactly what they're getting. They're making "Android" mean something again.

Android is no longer wide open, and Nokia, as the biggest handset maker in the world obviously wants to be able to distinguish itself from other OEMS. In the Android space it perhaps was unable to negotiate special treatment, but MS obviously has fewer problems with fragmentation - because MS doesn't have a smartphone platform successful enough enough to have fragments.
post #33 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galbi View Post




Market share is used as leverage against suppliers to get better (cheaper) component prices.

If you think Steve doesnt care about market share, then you've certainly havent seen his keynote speeches for the past 5 years.

What is usually the first couple of slides that Steve talks about?

Exactly.

A rather eccentric graph, don't you think?
post #34 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

A rather eccentric graph, don't you think?

How do you mean? Looks a fairly standard Pie chart to me.
post #35 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

How do you mean? Looks a fairly standard Pie chart to me.

The center is moved up so that Apple's share appears twice larger than what the numbers tell.

As the Yale professor Edward Tufte wrote, the only worse design than a pie chart is several of them.

I hope this was the only one during that talk.
post #36 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

The center is moved up so that Apple's share appears twice larger than what the numbers tell.

As the Yale professor Edward Tufte wrote, the only worse design than a pie chart is several of them.

I hope this was the only one during that talk.

Hmm - I would say that the apple slice is pulled out in order to make it clearer. That the Apple slice might seem a bit too big is probably because the screen is at an angle to the camera.

As for pie charts, they're fine when you're showing a zero sum quantity like - hmm - market share.
post #37 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Hmm - I would say that the apple slice is pulled out in order to make it clearer. That the Apple slice might seem a bit too big is probably because the screen is at an angle to the camera.

As for pie charts, they're fine when you're showing a zero sum quantity like - hmm - market share.

The green share is less then the purple share, but looks larger.
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post #38 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by city View Post

The green share is less then the purple share, but looks larger.

It's very slightly less, and the apparent size issue is a feature of the viewing angle, and perhaps the colour choices - it's not because the apple slice got pulled out. Note that the Orange slice looks to be much more than half of the purple, even though it's less.
post #39 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

The center is moved up so that Apple's share appears twice larger than what the numbers tell.

As the Yale professor Edward Tufte wrote, the only worse design than a pie chart is several of them.

I hope this was the only one during that talk.


To be fair to Apple there is a BIG PERCENT SIGN on each slice of pie.
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post #40 of 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

The center is moved up so that Apple's share appears twice larger than what the numbers tell.

As the Yale professor Edward Tufte wrote, the only worse design than a pie chart is several of them.

I hope this was the only one during that talk.

The thing was animated. Steve's highlighting Apple's share right now, so the slice is bigger for that purpose.

Originally posted by Relic

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