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RIM called a 'one-trick pony,' company's 'nightmare' seen as benefit to Apple

post #1 of 115
Thread Starter 
With Research in Motion's first quarter of fiscal 2012 officially in the books, analysts on Wall Street have begun to pile on the beleaguered smartphone maker, declaring its outlook bleak as competitors like Apple are poised to gain on its losses.

Needham & Company

Analyst Charlie Wolf started his note to investors on Friday with a question: "What do you do when your one trick no longer works?" As a "one-trick pony," he believes RIM delivered the "gold standard in messaging service," but little else.

"Consumers now want phones that provide a broad selection of software and services," Wolf said. "RIM has responded far too slowly."

In his view, RIM's one competitive advantage -- its proprietary messaging service -- will come under attack this fall, when Apple releases iOS 5, with its own proprietary iMessage application. Apple's solution, which Wolf called "effectively identical" to RIM's BlackBerry Messenger, will allow free messaging between iOS devices: iPhones, iPads and iPod touches. He also expects Google to "copy" the feature for Android phones "as quickly as it can."

The biggest challenge ahead for RIM, in Wolf's view, is to transition its "antiquated" BlackBerry operating system to the QNX operating system that powers its new BlackBerry PlayBook. RIM announced in its earnings on Thursday that it shipped a half-million of its PlayBook in the quarter, beating analyst expectations but not providing a sell-through rate.

Waiting for the QNX operating system to make it to RIM's smartphone is "like waiting for Godot," Wolf said.

"It's unclear when QNZ will be integrated into BlackBerry," he said. "RIM plans to introduce new BlackBerries running on the updated BlackBerry 7.0 operating system this summer. This schedule suggests that BlackBerries running on the QNX operating system are unlikely to arrive before the first calendar quarter of 2012."

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster said that the latest earnings from RIM are not a negative for the broader smartphone market. Instead, they just show that RIM has failed to compete against the iPhone and devices running Google Android.

"In the November and February quarters, BlackBerry's handset unit growth has been flat while the overall industry has grown," Munster said. "As touch screen phones continue to dominate the landscape, with RIM's Torch and Storm touch screen offerings that lack the same key features of the iPhone and Android, we believe a slowdown in BlackBerry sales is not an indicator of the overall market."



Ticonderoga Securities

"When a disaster turns into a nightmare," analyst Brian White wrote of RIM's latest earnings. Like others, he sees the BlackBerry maker's struggles as a benefit to Apple, particularly in the enterprise market.

"Essentially, RIMM is struggling with market share as more innovative smartphones ramp in the market," White said. "We believe the challenges of both Nokia... and RIMM provide Apple's... portfolio with an opportunity for market share gain."

As for the PlayBook and its 500,000 units shipped, RIM did not provide any details on the actual sell-through. White believes that could be a concern for the company in its August quarter, and he does not see the PlayBook making a dent in Apple's iPad sales.
post #2 of 115
I'm almost willing to bet that Apple's share price won't be helped favorably by this news. I'll bet that Wall Street will see the fall of RIM to be a bigger boost to Android smartphones and Google will get the benefit. I'm not exactly sure why, but somehow Wall Street will figure out that Android smartphones are eating into RIM's market share and not the iPhone even though most enterprises are running pilot projects of iPhone vs BlackBerry smartphones. They'll immediately assume that Android will be able to better the iPhone's iMessaging system despite Android not even having it yet. Wall Street is always going to give Android the benefit of the doubt in growth and not iOS and there is something really wrong with that attitude.

RIM really looks to be on the outs with both smartphones and it's lone tablet. That's a pretty quick fall and I wonder if they'll be able to recover in a year or so. Apple will be able to deliver a comparable push messaging service to RIM's BES on both the iPhone and iPad, so that could really hurt BES sales.
post #3 of 115
RIM's about to drop 20% at the open and by the end of the day its value will be 1/3 of what it was in February.

I smell something burning... smells like toast...
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post #4 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

I smell something burning... smells like toast...

Mmm... toast and BlackBerry jam...

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #5 of 115
Microsoft appear smarter than BB. Yes, they late with Windows 8 on the tablet market, but at least thay don't rush with not ready product, like BB PlayBook. Releasing PlayBook in its current state was the Epic Fail for BB.
post #6 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

Microsoft appear smarter than BB. Yes, they late with Windows 8 on the tablet market, but at least thay don't rush with not ready product, like BB PlayBook. Releasing PlayBook in its current state was the Epic Fail for BB.

... and, like Samsung, they released a "shipped" quantity number instead of "sell through" number. Investors hate liars and RIM will be punished even more when the actual numbers are released (if they ever are released).
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post #7 of 115
Sad to see a company so poorly managed. RIM was complacent. Some of my family and friends have BB's and they are so cheap looking with their plastic shiny buttons. A friend went to Paris and didn't want to take her laptop...just BB. She ended up calling me to go over to her house and fwd her emails to her. I did and she could not open them on her BB. I ended up reading her emails to her so she could see which were important. As it turns out, none were important. But what a messy way to do things...at least she didn't ask me to print the emails and "FAX" them to her! Ugh! :

Nevertheless, all those laid-off RIM people and their families. I feel for them.

My late CEO father used to say, in business (and even more so in tech), if you're not growing, you're dying!
post #8 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

Microsoft appear smarter than BB. Yes, they late with Windows 8 on the tablet market, but at least thay don't rush with not ready product, like BB PlayBook. Releasing PlayBook in its current state was the Epic Fail for BB.

You could almost put Google in the same boat as Rim. Initial reviews of the Android tablet weren't exactly what you would call favorable. Google seems to get a bit more leeway though.

Jury is still out on Microsoft. Windows 8 could be a very good strategy for them (if it performs well) or bury them (if it performs like crap).

I'm more interested in what Microsoft do with messaging. I thought the combined Skype+Messanger user base, if merged with something like the Facebook social graph, would finally provide us with a full IP messaging platform (video/voice/chat/messaging) that everyone could use... but with Apple backing iMessage, the potential for Google to extend Google chat, and Microsoft not seeming all that interested to push Skype... it seems like chat is going to end up more fragmented, not less.
post #9 of 115
As I said before, I think RIM is gonna do just fine because of enterprise users. Sure iPhone now offers the same or even better features, but BB is still a status symbol for a business professional. Therefore, they can stop innovating and there would still be millions of sales in the medium term. I think just like MS RIM can have products be very late to market, and people would still buy them out of habit and because they are "good for business customers".

Sure the stock might take a plunge, but the company won't shut down and will just operate with a lower market cap.
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post #10 of 115
Any company needs to be able to answer the question: "Why should I buy your product instead of the competition's product?"

RIM can't answer that right now. They need the vision to know what to put in their products to answer the question, and they need the focus to get it done. Unfortunately, they have neither. They're floundering about with their OS strategy. They shipped a tablet missing features.

I feel bad for them, but this is their own making.
post #11 of 115
Assume that they're shopping for a partner/parent, who might be interested?

Microsoft: MS have made noises about making their own handsets and tablets, this would get them straight in. They could rapidly switch RIM over to Bing to build mobile search market share, and eventually move them over to WP7. It would piss off their partners, but then their partners are already either being strong-armed with license fees or are so desperate that they don't have another option.

Nokia: While the mergers of two drowning firms is never pretty ( HP/Compaq anybody?) this might not be totally doomed. RIM have better software than Nokia (who doesn't?) and a loyal enterprise base. RIM would give Nokia an alternative to WP7, Nokia would give RIM deeper pockets.

Apple: Very unlikely because Apple hasn't done a big transformative merger since it bought NeXT, but not completely impossible. RIM has experience selling to enterprise, which is something that Apple lacks. Apple could rapidly switch over RIM users to iOS if it could just integrate the key security features and secure email services, also RIM would help solidify Apple's position in the patent wars - especially if they manage to acquire the Nortel patents.

Oracle: Now we're entering Sci-Fi territory, but Oracle is a very strange firm and very willing to grow by merger. They are already fighting Android on a java infringement case, and wouldn't be stepping on any significant partners - only HP and they aren't exactly bosom buddies right now anyway. Oracle have wanted a way to break MS's control over the desktop and mobile increasingly looks like a good way to do so, but they have no mobile presence or experience. Oracle CRM tightly integrated to a tablet like the playbook could produce significant sales.

Anybody I missed?
post #12 of 115
Well I would necessarily want Apple to buy, BUT if Apple had the chance to buy some of RIM's assets I'd say got for it.

QNX is a REALLY nicely design OS, all its lacking is a pretty GUI on top. Mac OS X could learn a lot from QNX!

z3r0

Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Assume that they're shopping for a partner/parent, who might be interested?

Apple: Very unlikely because Apple hasn't done a big transformative merger since it bought NeXT, but not completely impossible. RIM has experience selling to enterprise, which is something that Apple lacks. Apple could rapidly switch over RIM users to iOS if it could just integrate the key security features and secure email services, also RIM would help solidify Apple's position in the patent wars - especially if they manage to acquire the Nortel patents.

Anybody I missed?
post #13 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gustav View Post

Any company needs to be able to answer the question: "Why should I buy your product instead of the competition's product?"

RIM can't answer that right now. They need the vision to know what to put in their products to answer the question, and they need the focus to get it done. Unfortunately, they have neither. They're floundering about with their OS strategy. They shipped a tablet missing features.

I feel bad for them, but this is their own making.

Because its a BlackBerry. They have a strong brand in the business world. Many of my classmates in business school bought blackberries over iPhones and Androids just because they were blackberries and business people use blackberries.
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post #14 of 115
"With Research in Motion's second quarter of fiscal 2012 officially in the books"

2012?
post #15 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

I'm almost willing to bet that Apple's share price won't be helped favorably by this news. I'll bet that Wall Street will see the fall of RIM to be a bigger boost to Android smartphones and Google will get the benefit.

No, because Android is not appealing to enterprise users at all right now.It has a reputation for poor security and the handsets have a reputation for poor support. It doesn't have a single vendor who plays well to the enterprise market, or who has the critical mass of RIM. It doesn't offer secure email that stays on the enterprise servers, and it's unlikely ever to do so since google want to be the email provider for android. It's open source, with a big licensing problem hanging over it from Oracle. Oh and the ecosystem is already full of malware and jailbreaks.

The reason that RIM have held onto their proits this long is because their enterprise customers don't have an obvious alternative as yet. The reason that RIM is losing market share is because their enterprise users already all have smartphones, so they can't grow as fast as the segment without winning retail consumers - and they're weak there.
post #16 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

Because its a BlackBerry. They have a strong brand in the business world. Many of my classmates in business school bought blackberries over iPhones and Androids just because they were blackberries and business people use blackberries.

I just hope you don't have shares in RIM. True believers always get hurt the most.
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post #17 of 115
Well look at that, seems AppleInsider's using its time machine to go forward in time to 2012, second time in two days!
post #18 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by z3r0 View Post

Well I would necessarily want Apple to buy, BUT if Apple had the chance to buy some of RIM's assets I'd say got for it.

QNX is a REALLY nicely design OS, all its lacking is a pretty GUI on top. Mac OS X could learn a lot from QNX!

z3r0

Hmmm....Mac OS X, a stable desktop OS in use for the past 10 years, based on a rock solid BSD platform that has been refined for more than 30 years can learn from QNX, an embedded OS that has never seen a day in a desktop?
post #19 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

Well look at that, seems AppleInsider's using its time machine to go forward in time to 2012, second time in two days!

It's RIM's first quarter of fiscal 2012.
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post #20 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

Hmmm....Mac OS X, a stable desktop OS in use for the past 10 years, based on a rock solid BSD platform that has been refined for more than 30 years can learn from QNX, an embedded OS that has never seen a day in a desktop?

He was trying real hard to get noticed... so he thanks you.
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post #21 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff View Post

...BB is still a status symbol for a business professional.

I disagree. That used to be true, though I think the status of a BB faded long ago.
post #22 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

It's RIM's first quarter of fiscal 2012.

So RIM have a time machine too? Why are they running a year ahead?
post #23 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

I'm almost willing to bet that Apple's share price won't be helped favorably by this news. I'll bet that Wall Street will see the fall of RIM to be a bigger boost to Android smartphones and Google will get the benefit. I'm not exactly sure why, but somehow Wall Street will figure out that Android smartphones are eating into RIM's market share and not the iPhone even though most enterprises are running pilot projects of iPhone vs BlackBerry smartphones. They'll immediately assume that Android will be able to better the iPhone's iMessaging system despite Android not even having it yet. Wall Street is always going to give Android the benefit of the doubt in growth and not iOS and there is something really wrong with that attitude.

RIM really looks to be on the outs with both smartphones and it's lone tablet. That's a pretty quick fall and I wonder if they'll be able to recover in a year or so. Apple will be able to deliver a comparable push messaging service to RIM's BES on both the iPhone and iPad, so that could really hurt BES sales.

I agree with this, but more on the lines that when the tide lowers, all ships go with it.
post #24 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

So RIM have a time machine too? Why are they running a year ahead?

A better question is: If they're running a year ahead, why are their phones still five years behind?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #25 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by chabig View Post

I disagree. That used to be true, though I think the status of a BB faded long ago.

It's not a status symbol, but it is a security symbol - like a comfort blanket. An enterprise that uses BB keeps control over its own email, and this is a huge deal. A friend of mine is a banker at a top investment bank, he owns a US iPhone, a UK iPhone and has a corporate blackberry for email. I'm sure he'd love to be able to get rid of the BB, but until Apple can match RIM's email offering he won't be able to.
post #26 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SergeSF View Post

Microsoft appear smarter than BB. Yes, they late with Windows 8 on the tablet market, but at least thay don't rush with not ready product, like BB PlayBook. Releasing PlayBook in its current state was the Epic Fail for BB.

Uh...WHAT???

Microsoft is the KING of shipping not ready products. THE KING.
It's their core business strategy:
1. Follow a competitor into a new market
2. Put version 1.0 out there to compete. Get laughed at.
3. Add features year after year. Turn it into a features wars.
4. Competitor (sometimes) screws up, fumbles the ball
5. (Sometimes) Win.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #27 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Uh...WHAT???
Microsoft is the KING of shipping not ready products. THE KING.
It's their core business strategy:

Actually I think their core strategy is to announce a product years early and bluff people into thinking they're about to ship a not-ready product. I don't think they ever ship products early, which isn't to say they don't ship them bugged as hell - I just don't think they'd be any better if they'd shipped them later
post #28 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post

Sad to see a company so poorly managed. RIM was complacent. Some of my family and friends have BB's and they are so cheap looking with their plastic shiny buttons. A friend went to Paris and didn't want to take her laptop...just BB. She ended up calling me to go over to her house and fwd her emails to her. I did and she could not open them on her BB. I ended up reading her emails to her so she could see which were important. As it turns out, none were important. But what a messy way to do things...at least she didn't ask me to print the emails and "FAX" them to her! Ugh! :

Nevertheless, all those laid-off RIM people and their families. I feel for them.

My late CEO father used to say, in business (and even more so in tech), if you're not growing, you're dying!

i have to carry a cheap BB Curve for work. can't do much with it but the plastic is strong. never had a case for it, dropped it many times on concrete and other hard surfaces and it only has a few scratches. my iphones and ipads would never survive that. they might be pretty but the cheap plastic is a lot stronger than glass
post #29 of 115
Quote:
He also expects Google to "copy" the feature for Android phones "as quickly as it can."

Google has GoogleTalk. Talks to other Android phones. this has been out for years. Not as old as BBM, but what exactly does google have to copy?
post #30 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Assume that they're shopping for a partner/parent, who might be interested?

Microsoft: MS have made noises about making their own handsets and tablets, this would get them straight in. They could rapidly switch RIM over to Bing to build mobile search market share, and eventually move them over to WP7. It would piss off their partners, but then their partners are already either being strong-armed with license fees or are so desperate that they don't have another option.

Nokia: While the mergers of two drowning firms is never pretty ( HP/Compaq anybody?) this might not be totally doomed. RIM have better software than Nokia (who doesn't?) and a loyal enterprise base. RIM would give Nokia an alternative to WP7, Nokia would give RIM deeper pockets.

Apple: Very unlikely because Apple hasn't done a big transformative merger since it bought NeXT, but not completely impossible. RIM has experience selling to enterprise, which is something that Apple lacks. Apple could rapidly switch over RIM users to iOS if it could just integrate the key security features and secure email services, also RIM would help solidify Apple's position in the patent wars - especially if they manage to acquire the Nortel patents.

Oracle: Now we're entering Sci-Fi territory, but Oracle is a very strange firm and very willing to grow by merger. They are already fighting Android on a java infringement case, and wouldn't be stepping on any significant partners - only HP and they aren't exactly bosom buddies right now anyway. Oracle have wanted a way to break MS's control over the desktop and mobile increasingly looks like a good way to do so, but they have no mobile presence or experience. Oracle CRM tightly integrated to a tablet like the playbook could produce significant sales.

Anybody I missed?

Dell.
post #31 of 115
One day in the future when RIM is a "Do you remember" company, I'm sure someone will make a little device with lots of tiny plastic button for folks to play with as a novelty item. It'll be kind of like the way some people love to play with a Commodore 64. The term I'm looking for is nostalgia I think.
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post #32 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

i have to carry a cheap BB Curve for work. can't do much with it but the plastic is strong. never had a case for it, dropped it many times on concrete and other hard surfaces and it only has a few scratches. my iphones and ipads would never survive that. they might be pretty but the cheap plastic is a lot stronger than glass

So.... pretty useless but hard to destroy.
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #33 of 115
My son-in-law is a project manager for a major corporate event planner/producer. He travels around the country producing and managing corporate meetings, shows, things similar to WWDC and the like. His company has already switched to iPhones and iPads. He notices the same thing with many of the companies who are his customers. Apple is indeed making inroads in the enterprise and RIM is getting the boot in many cases. My son-in-law doesn't see much Android in his corporate dealings.
post #34 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elijahg View Post

So RIM have a time machine too? Why are they running a year ahead?

In some countries such as Canada, Australia and Japan, the financial year runs over 12 months from a date other than January first. This moves the often considerable burden of financial reporting for companies and personal income tax assessment for individuals away from the festive season. In Canada, the financial year runs April 1 - March 31, Australia July 1 - June 30 etc. Clever.

All the best.
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post #35 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

Dell.

I think it would be a leap too far for Dell. Dell's market cap is only $30B, so at current prices RIM wouldn't be affordable once a buy-out premium was applied. Dell doesn't have deep enough pockets to pay for serious product development that RIM needs and it doesn't have any in-house expertise at to apply.

However I did miss

IBM:

Big Blue is a huge enterprise shop with a reputation for security and reliability. They have an ageing email platform in Lotus Notes that fits well with the kind of users who buy BB. They have deep pockets and a lot of experience producing enterprise software. They've done big mergers in the past, and seem to be able to execute them reasonably well. On the flip side they sold their thinkpad business to Lenovo and it's unlikely that they want to buy into another mass market hardware business after that - but Blackberry is a hardware business married to a prop OS, and that does make them a possible.
post #36 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Anybody I missed?

Reminds me of the punch line to an old joke....

...something about pince-nez glasses, a "violator" and "Look around Big Joe, and see if we missed anybody".
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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post #37 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by z3r0 View Post

Well I would necessarily want Apple to buy, BUT if Apple had the chance to buy some of RIM's assets I'd say got for it.

QNX is a REALLY nicely design OS, all its lacking is a pretty GUI on top. Mac OS X could learn a lot from QNX!

z3r0

No offence but this is nonsense. QNX is a microkernel architecture intended for embedded devices and has little to no advantages over straight Unix in terms of mobile OS's. iOS has one of the most solid, time-tested pure Unix cores to build on with OS-X and wouldn't gain anything by switching to QNX instead.

Also, putting the "pretty GUI on top" is pretty much the entire game. It's taken Apple somewhere between four and eight years to tack the "pretty GUI" onto iOS's kernel. Your suggesting they start all over, but for what?
post #38 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

The term I'm looking for is nostalgia I think.

So are they
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post #39 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Assume that they're shopping for a partner/parent, who might be interested?

Microsoft: MS have made noises about making their own handsets and tablets, this would get them straight in. They could rapidly switch RIM over to Bing to build mobile search market share, and eventually move them over to WP7. It would piss off their partners, but then their partners are already either being strong-armed with license fees or are so desperate that they don't have another option.

Nokia: While the mergers of two drowning firms is never pretty ( HP/Compaq anybody?) this might not be totally doomed. RIM have better software than Nokia (who doesn't?) and a loyal enterprise base. RIM would give Nokia an alternative to WP7, Nokia would give RIM deeper pockets.

Apple: Very unlikely because Apple hasn't done a big transformative merger since it bought NeXT, but not completely impossible. RIM has experience selling to enterprise, which is something that Apple lacks. Apple could rapidly switch over RIM users to iOS if it could just integrate the key security features and secure email services, also RIM would help solidify Apple's position in the patent wars - especially if they manage to acquire the Nortel patents.

Oracle: Now we're entering Sci-Fi territory, but Oracle is a very strange firm and very willing to grow by merger. They are already fighting Android on a java infringement case, and wouldn't be stepping on any significant partners - only HP and they aren't exactly bosom buddies right now anyway. Oracle have wanted a way to break MS's control over the desktop and mobile increasingly looks like a good way to do so, but they have no mobile presence or experience. Oracle CRM tightly integrated to a tablet like the playbook could produce significant sales.

Anybody I missed?

Perhaps HP. Think RIM for business, Palm for consumer. WebOS to run on both.
post #40 of 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

My son-in-law is a project manager for a major corporate event planner/producer. He travels around the country producing and managing corporate meetings, shows, things similar to WWDC and the like. His company has already switched to iPhones and iPads. He notices the same thing with many of the companies who are his customers. Apple is indeed making inroads in the enterprise and RIM is getting the boot in many cases. My son-in-law doesn't see much Android in his corporate dealings.

... and later this year, when RIM fires the CEO's and 'restructures' Apple will be sitting pretty with a drop in BBM replacement ('iMessage').
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