Originally Posted by cloudgazer
Fine lets talk about a specific company within the IT industry - Microsoft. MS has been stagnant for years, with volatile profits that depend mostly on whether there is a new version of windows to push onto reluctant consumers. The IT industry as a whole has been vibrant in that time and their main competitor Apple has clearly grown gangbusters. But is MS toast? Not yet, no matter how much it would please me
Neither is AMD toast in spite of their problems competing with Intel, badly damaged yes but still fighting and with an interesting offering in their new heterogeneous computing spiel.
Heck for years Apple was stagnant within the computer industry. Slowly losing marketshare to PC, and yet it wasn't toast because it had some core loyal markets that stayed with it through the wilderness years. If RIM has such a core loyal market, and I contend that they do, then they are in far better shape than many of their rivals.
MS is different. They have two monopolies, one declared, and one not declared. Because of that, and because they have such a large portion of the industry dependent on those monopolies, the fact that they're bot growi g rapidly any more is of little account. Today, Ms grows about the same rate as the industry as a whole, and no faster. Apple is slowly taking some of that market, but it's happening slowly. As long as the industry grows at a rate that's faster than Apple is biting off some of it, then MS will continue to grow. Ataxy rate, it's not MSs' core areas that are having major problems, it's the phone OS, and their Internet division. But we all know that MS isn't going away anytime soon.
AMD sucks. They've always sucked, and likely always will. But they compete mainly in the area of discount chips where Intel isn't all that interested, so they'll survive.
Apple had Steve Jobs come back. Who does RIM have to step in for these clowns? I'm not saying that RIM IS toast. I'm saying that if they aren't careful to do everything just right they could be toast. And this is what everyone else is sayin too.
I'm certainly not saying that RIM are doing well, I'm not even saying that RIM are doing other than badly - I'm only saying that they're still not doing as badly as a bunch of other firms who aren't routinely spoken of as total basket cases.
But that's not necessarily thru. Moto is not doing badly now. S-E is but they're not independent. And it doesn't matter how these companies are doing, as we're talking about RIM. Don't get off track here. RIMs' position is deteriorating quickly. they talk about how much cash they have, but it's not much. They talk about new products, but they're all a good six months late. They talk about they,re new OS, but it won't be out on phones until next year, and etc., etc.
Top management is living in a fantasy world, and don't seem to have any idea that they are in trouble. They say that their transition is almost over, but it's barely begun.
They tell us that they grew 69% in third works markets, but they gloss over the fact that fully half of their sales are on the USA, and there, they have lost actual sales as well as marketshare.
Come on, they are in major trouble. Their window is closing rapidly. They don't have that much time to reverse it.
Do you have a link for that survey? The reason I'm asking is that I'd like to know about the methodology used. Are they only looking at people who are buying their own phone for their own use and excluding enterprise users? f you surveyed my banker friend with 2 iPhones and a BB he'd say his next purchase is another iPhone, but there's no way his BB is going anywhere anytime soon.
I thought I did.
Let me be clear - I thnk that RIM is screwed in the consumer market, where it has been doing pretty well thanks to early adopter smartphone users and kids who like BBM. Neither of those categories will show any loyalty and the phones will lose out to equivalently priced Android phones in those markets.
However that's not RIMs core market, and they can survive for a good long while without it - they may even be more interesting to a buyer without it as they'll be a purer enterprise play.
But this is one of the major problems. Despite your friend, business is moving away from the BB. Geeze! You can find a hundred articles about that. It's nothing new. Almost everyone I know in business who had a BB now has an iPhone. And businesses are also give g them up for iPads, which are much better than phones for many business tasks. RIM had given an unofficial number of 6 million for Playbook sales this year, which now looks like it will actually be about one million shipped, not sold.
We are but we can't talk about them in isolation. A big part of the problem for RIM and indeed for Android makers are the zombies Moto & S-E. They're in a slow death spiral, but as they slowly bleed share they price their phones aggressively and ruin margins for other players. There is nothing to stop RIM doing what everybody else has done, making a cheap knockoff iPhone 3GS, sticking a version of Android on it - though RIMs would obviously be a heavily locked down version - running their prop mail system on it and calling it a blackdroid. Frankly that's where I see RIM in 3 years time, if they aren't bought by a big player - as an niche enterprise Android maker.
Whoa now. For years, RIMs sales have been bolstered by the BOGO sales around the fourth calendar quarter. They also have a lot of their phones given away for free. This has nothing to do with Moto and S-E. It has to do with Apple, and now successful Android phones, of which Motos' can be considered.
RIM has been making knockoff iPhones since the first Storm. None have been successful.
Nokia is a different story to the other incredible shrinking handset makers because they have so much IP that they will do well as a business even with their handset sales cratering. They also have global manufacturing capability which is both a blessing in that it gives them great access in markets like south america, and a curse because it makes shrinking so expensive for them. That's why I can't decide whether Nokia is in more trouble than RIM or less. They can certainly continue to flail for years without completely expiring.
Nokia's in pretty big trouble as well. And now that Apple products will be made in Brazil, and sold there without the 40% tariff the Brazilian government imposes, iPhones and iPads will finally be competitive there. There are 220 million people in Brazil, and Brazil is a fast growing economy which is already The worlds seventh largest, very close in size to Britain, France and Germany. They're clamoring formApple products at reasonable prices, and soon they will get them. This will hurt RIM and Nokia.