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With more than $70B in cash, Apple could buy Nokia, RIM, HTC & Motorola - Page 5

post #161 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

Why does manufacturing output as a percentage of GDP matter?

because it shows that a developed country can still be successful using manufacturing for economic output
post #162 of 281
Not thinking that Apple would want to buy companies that are losing the battle right now. Every day the market share erodes, no reason to own them. If the concern is that market share would move to Android, they I would be helping RIM as much as possible while continuing to penetrate the enterprise market.
post #163 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

I try to stay away from these pinhead "American" threads, but it has to be at least noted that what you are pushing here is pure bullshit ideology.

Facts are facts.
The rich have been getting richer and the poor have been getting poorer.

That's how capitalism works.

Your other comments about the rich "creating wealth" have also been conclusively disproven many many times. It's basic 'trickle-down' economics. It has never been the case that it works and it never will work.

You can spout this right-wing ideological crap all day long but it won't magically become true at any time.

Totally agree.
post #164 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post



How do Gemany and Japan do it?

that doesnt mean less jobs, it means less money for those jobs - as the top one percent keep grabbing a larger peice of the pie there is less to split so a factory job that paid $10/hr in 1980 pays like 12 today when inflation adjusted it should pay closer to 17
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post #165 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by franksmith22 View Post

because it shows that a developed country can still be successful using manufacturing for economic output

First, the US does manufacture so its output is certainly not zero.

Second, this chart also shows that an economy can be quite successful even when its manufacturing output (as % of GDP) falls.

Third, all of these developed countries have a falling manufacturing output (as % of GDP).

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post #166 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

that doesnt mean less jobs, it means less money for those jobs - as the top one percent keep grabbing a larger peice of the pie there is less to split so a factory job that paid $10/hr in 1980 pays like 12 today when inflation adjusted it should pay closer to 17

I spotted a zero-sum wealther!

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post #167 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It's hard to think of a profitable consumer market that they can enter.

How about the home appliance market? iWash line of laundry machines, iNuke line of microwaves, iChill line of refrigerators, etc.
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post #168 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by garethmiller View Post

I have read this site for a long time (amongst many others) but this is the first time I have felt like signing up to say anything. I am baffled by many of the posts on this thread but I learnt some time ago browsing here that many have inflexible views, refuse to keep an open mind and are really quite aggressive with those who do not share their viewpoints.

To quote Robert Quillen Discussion is an exchange of knowledge; an argument an exchange of ignorance.

Thus I will stick to a few thoughts that popped into my head instead.

1) ARM does have other benefits beyond those mentioned. Unlikely Apple would buy ARM but they are ramping up their development of mobile graphics & SoCs for Internet connected televisions (and other devices).

ARM are also based in Cambridge, England and have a strong talent pool and ties with the University. They are in the primary position for talent coming out of the University of Cambridge and the very latest in computer science research.

2) It is possible to start from scratch in a country.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13058866

As you will all know Foxconn plan to do exactly that in Brazil, lack of manufacturing infrastructure or expertise is not the reason they choose not to manufacture in the US. That is down primarily to wages. (I hope the BBC link works in your country of residence, apologies if not).

3) Wages are rising quite fast in China, pre-suicides the reported rate for a Foxconn worker was 900 RMB and is now 2000 RMB ($310 a month). You will appreciate that is quite the rise. Indeed the average rise in the minimum wage levels across China in 2010 was 22.5%.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wag...m-salary-hikes

With inflation at 5.5% and food inflation at 11.7% in China this pressure will only accelerate further in the next year or two.

In addition to this to combat food inflation (and under pressure from the US) China is relaxing its hold of the value of the Yuan. This year alone it has gained about 10% on the dollar (last time I checked, may not be current) and is said to be undervalued by at least 40%. This would make the current value of Foxconn wages $434 a month. Considering the current low interest rates in the developed world driving investment to China the undervaluation estimate on the Yuan may be conservative.

Recently in the Chinese apparel making factories there has already been a shortage of workers and when the domestic market catches light in China (and it will) this problem could well send wages rocketing as factories struggle to meet demand.

This over a period of time will make manufacturing in America more appealing but initially will drive factories to Latin America, India and then the last source of cheap labour Africa. People in Nigeria for example earn about $330 Per year.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_th...ome_in_Nigeria

So in short low tech assembly will probably shift around the world a bit until China & India become huge consumers. At that point in time the US could see a resurgence in this area or we could see rapid development of further automation.

4) The US actually has a shortage of workers!

http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2010...kill-shortage/

So despite many many people being out of work, there are potentially jobs for some of them but no one has the right skills set. How much growth is this stalling in these businesses?, how many other low skill jobs would that growth have created?.

The US (and UK for that matter) has under invested in education and the future of its economy. It has workers with low skills or the wrong ones. The economy has moved to hi tech and the education system has not caught up. Despite a growing debt unless there is significant investment and realignment to upskill then other countries will continue to catch up.

People who are better educated have better health, commit less crimes, are less of a burden on the state and they create jobs. Short term investment pain for long term gain but unfortunately most Governments do not think further than making sure they are voted in at the next election. Why go for long term when they won't be in office to reap the glory, so they go for short term populist wins instead.


Anyhow less of my ramble! Enjoy your weekend.

Great thoughts and totally agree.

I wish we would cut the military budget by at at least a third and put it all into education...
post #169 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Splash-reverse View Post

Do you think every single Android, Motorola etc American user base would dump their phones and buy iPhone just because it is made in the USA? I don't think so. That ship (local manufacturing) has sailed decades ago when capitalism rises and many third world countries were suppresses by IMF, world bank etc. Get a grip!

At some point, someone needs to be a leader. Steve Jobs is very well liked around the world and could be that person.

I know this is crazy talk and I know it won't happen, but think about how great it would be if it did.
post #170 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Last I heard, the US no longer manufactures a damn thing!

You heard wrong.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Last I checked, the US manufactures more than any other country on the face of the earth.

That's correct.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

But according to other posters, it is not possible to manufacture anything in a developed country, despite the fact that the largest manufcaturing economies are in developed countries.

They are wrong and confused. They are lamenting the fact that certain products are not manufactured in the US.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Apple could do it, if they wanted to.

Probably not with the products they make.

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post #171 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

Last I heard, the US no longer manufactures a damn thing!

Last I checked, the US manufactures more than any other country on the face of the earth.

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-...g-things/2134/

But according to other posters, it is not possible to manufacture anything in a developed country, despite the fact that the largest manufcaturing economies are in developed countries.

Apple could do it, if they wanted to.

Good stuff. Agreed.
post #172 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

If you really want more manufacturing in the US, then lobby for more employment deregulation, including any special legal privileges granted to unions.

But, in the end, this is the dynamic that happens. There are a wide array of jobs in the US that don't fall into the categories of "flipping burgers" (which are entry level jobs for teenagers) and high-tech doctorate jobs in hi-tech and bio-tech. Most of the people I work with are all pretty middle class. We all earn middle class wage and live in middle class homes. None of us manufacture anything. There are also tons of people working in manufacturing in the US, they are just manufacturing much higher value things than the stuff we outsource to places like China and Malaysia.

What we need is for the government to get out of the way of business and the economy will grow and create tons of jobs. But most of these will not be the jobs from yesteryear...and that's probably going to be okay.

Instead of repeating the standard (disproved) Republican answer for everything, please just post a link to it. That would waste a lot less bandwidth.
post #173 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

I spotted a zero-sum wealther!

come on, we all know about Reaganomics, trickledown means that workers are the urinal cakes, hoping for a little trickle...
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post #174 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post



How do Gemany and Japan do it?

Great chart Joseph!

Germany has mainly concentrated on premium goods, a bit like Apple. The premium paid helps pay the extra in wages. In fact not only wages but German factories have amazing social/sporting facilities even spas. They also seem to take over entire cities like Wolfsburg and get great loyalty from the staff.

Both German and Japanese car plants are much more productive than their US competitors, this is the reason for their ongoing success despite Chinese and Indian competition.

Similarly in the UK, Jaguar recently have had a sales boom (mainly to the Chinese). Premium products make the wages affordable. That premise obviously could be used for those arguing for Apple to produce in the US.

EDIT: This outlines the car plant productivity gap in 2007 (showing it narrowing after years of Japan being vastly more productive)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2....lifeandhealth

It also gives other reasons for American manufacturers costs being higher as payroll and healthcare costs.
post #175 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by garethmiller View Post

Premium products make the wages affordable.

Actually this isn't true, what makes wages affordable is productivity. German industry is incredibly productive, even Italian industry is very productive though it focuses on extremely obscure things like machines to make cigarette filters or the like. Not all German made cars are premium products Opels are GM for example, and if you stop to think about it there is still a big American car industry - which is because especially in non-unionized plants it is still possible to manufacture cars in the USA with high productivity and so low unit labour costs.

The problem for Apple is that the best place to manufacture consumer electronics is China, even Japan can't compete - and it's not like Apple are the only ones to do this or were even the first - every single substantial consumer electronics firm manufactures in asia and most assemble in China.

A single firm, no matter how successful can't change that. America still has amazing clusters for biotech, for software, for finance etc. but it no longer has a consumer electronics cluster - and whining about Apple making a lot of money won't change that.
post #176 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

come on, we all know about Reaganomics, trickledown means that workers are the urinal cakes, hoping for a little trickle...

Nice! And accurate!
post #177 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrstep View Post

They have huge margins, huge cash reserves, and it's not because they manufacture in China, it's because they make better products.

Actually its both things.

Manufacturing in China gives them products at a lower cost which gives them a sizable margin on almost every product due to the higher than 'normal' pricing. The quality of the product creates value that justifies the higher price and entices folks to buy. Creating the income that, when paired with the lower production costs etc, creates the high cash reserves.
post #178 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by MoXoM View Post

Buy Spotify and Twitter and be done with it....

...and buy Messi from Barcelona and give him to Man Utd for free!

HA!!! good try
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post #179 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

Actually this isn't true, what makes wages affordable is productivity. German industry is incredibly productive, even Italian industry is very productive though it focuses on extremely obscure things like machines to make cigarette filters or the like. Not all German made cars are premium products Opels are GM for example, and if you stop to think about it there is still a big American car industry - which is because especially in non-unionized plants it is still possible to manufacture cars in the USA with high productivity and so low unit labour costs.

The problem for Apple is that the best place to manufacture consumer electronics is China, even Japan can't compete - and it's not like Apple are the only ones to do this or were even the first - every single substantial consumer electronics firm manufactures in asia and most assemble in China.

A single firm, no matter how successful can't change that. America still has amazing clusters for biotech, for software, for finance etc. but it no longer has a consumer electronics cluster - and whining about Apple making a lot of money won't change that.

Hi Cloudgazer

I don't believe I have tried to make an argument either for or against Apple moving back production to the States. Merely presenting some thoughts and a couple of facts which I presented evidence for.

You neatly missed that I mentioned productivity in Germany as a reason and your use of Opel is strange as they had to take a massive bailout from the German government!.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...608402,00.html

And the company's factory in Rüsselsheim was transformed to one of the most modern plants in the world for €750 million, it started production in 2002 and yet they still went bust!. They just didn't have the margin to play with that BMW and VW had (They were only partly pulled down by the parent group).

Your claim about Italy being productive is very surprising considering all the evidence points otherwise.

http://ideas.repec.org/a/gde/journl/..._p269-309.html

In fact the decline has been so bad that there are many studies on it and it is one of the reasons Berlusconi is in so much trouble. To quote the study in the link:

The results suggest that the decline in productivity after 1995 has been widespread across sectors and regions

But of course I bow to your economic mastery.

EDIT: Also the following is interesting in your argument that Unionized plants are less productive.

http://www.uaw.org/story/union-plant...ivity-rankings

Quote:

"In fact, the latest industry data show members of the UAW and the Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) are already more efficient and productive than their nonunion counterparts."
post #180 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph L View Post

At first, I was going to look for raw dollar figures. But then big countries could look like they have a lot of manufacturing, even if very little of their economy is based on it.

The point is that highly developed countries have a lot of maufacturing. Like Gemany and Japan.

If only the USA's economy was more like Japan's, things would be much better.
post #181 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by guch20 View Post

Yeah, let business run wild since they obviously have American's best interests at heart.

Yup, just like the gov't let banks run amok and it almost destroyed out entire economy. I'm not one for more government but some things do need regulation or oversight.
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post #182 of 281
The easiest way to deal with the problems that flash and their lack of multi core support cause is to buy them and fix the problems adobe just doesn't care about.
post #183 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by webfrasse View Post

Yeah and with the prices and quality that would bring there wouldn't any iPhone in the market place and no cash.

Stop dreaming and start buying what is already manufactured here, cars, food, etc. I bet some of you dreamers drive around in foreign cars...right?

Many of those "foreign cars" are built here, and many "American" cars aren't.
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post #184 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

If only the USA's economy was more like Japan's, things would be much better.

Japan has suffered from stagnating growth, deflation and it has a national debt that is 225% of its GDP.

I think the problem is that the US economy is getting too much like Japan!.
post #185 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post

It's apparently mostly in US T-Bills and short maturity bonds.

I've always read that much of that "cash" is stashed overseas, avoiding US taxes.
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post #186 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankie View Post

Because not every job can be 'upper class'. We need manufacturing jobs. There's a reason 10% of the country is unemployed...

No we dont. We've for the most part we've moved from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. The problem is that the people who most purchase services (middle class) is dwindling.
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post #187 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by garethmiller View Post

Hi Cloudgazer

I don't believe I have tried to make an argument either for or against Apple moving back production to the States. Merely presenting some thoughts and a couple of facts which I presented evidence for.

You neatly missed that I mentioned productivity in Germany as a reason and your use of Opel is strange as they had to take a massive bailout from the German government!.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...608402,00.html

And the company's factory in Rüsselsheim was transformed to one of the most modern plants in the world for 750 million, it started production in 2002 and yet they still went bust!. They just didn't have the margin to play with that BMW and VW had (They were only partly pulled down by the parent group).

Your claim about Italy being productive is very surprising considering all the evidence points otherwise.

http://ideas.repec.org/a/gde/journl/..._p269-309.html

In fact the decline has been so bad that there are many studies on it and it is one of the reasons Berlusconi is in so much trouble. To quote the study in the link:

The results suggest that the decline in productivity after 1995 has been widespread across sectors and regions

But of course I bow to your economic mastery.

EDIT: Also the following is interesting in your argument that Unionized plants are less productive.

http://www.uaw.org/story/union-plant...ivity-rankings

Quote:

"In fact, the latest industry data show members of the UAW and the Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) are already more efficient and productive than their nonunion counterparts."

Nice job. +1
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post #188 of 281
dont the chineese also buy American made stuff? mostly big stuff like cars, cranes (think caterpillar) and farm gear (think john deere)?

we do have an imballance obviously but hey, one combine is equal to thousands of i-devices...
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post #189 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by garethmiller View Post

You neatly missed that I mentioned productivity in Germany as a reason and your use of Opel is strange as they had to take a massive bailout from the German government!.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...608402,00.html

And the company's factory in Rüsselsheim was transformed to one of the most modern plants in the world for €750 million, it started production in 2002 and yet they still went bust!. They just didn't have the margin to play with that BMW and VW had (They were only partly pulled down by the parent group).

Ok. VW then if you prefer. It's still not a 'luxury' or 'quality' brand, it's a mass market car. The UK car industry which you seemed to think was just Jaguar is in fact almost entirely Japanese manufacturers, and again they're making mass market vehicles here - nothing to do with luxury products - everything to do with low unit costs.


Quote:
Your claim about Italy being productive is very surprising considering all the evidence points otherwise.

http://ideas.repec.org/a/gde/journl/..._p269-309.html

The results suggest that the decline in productivity after 1995 has been widespread across sectors and regions

This may be hard for you to understand but if I say something is high, and you say it's dropping that is actually not proof that it isn't high. A thing can be high and simultaneously dropping, such as Nokia's market share. It's a complex concept though and I appreciate you may have trouble with it. In a similar fashion something can be low but rising, this isn't relevant to the topic at hand but it may help you in future life.

Yes Italian productivity is dropping, it has been since Euro accession back in the 95, because wage inflation hasn't adjusted to the new reality that they can no longer keep depreciating their currency. However, in spite of that, the level of industry in the economy is relatively high at 25% compared to 18% for the UK, 22% for the USA, 24% for France, and 24% for Spain. Germany is higher of course at 30%, but remember that the number for Italy is nationwide and the North-South gap is vast. (Figures from the CIA- world factbook)

So even with their dropping productivity they're still high enough that the Northern clusters are able to compete in some industries - those where their productivity was highest. And yes - it's dropping across all sectors (wage inflation and euro membership is economy wide), but that still means that things that started high, are higher than things that started low. Is that clear? Should I use smaller words?

Quote:
In fact the decline has been so bad that there are many studies on it and it is one of the reasons Berlusconi is in so much trouble.

You appear to have confused economic decline and sex with underage prostitutes.

Quote:
But of course I bow to your economic mastery.

I bow to your ability to link obscure academic papers that don't even prove your point
post #190 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cpsro View Post

Apple could buy them all out, fire all their employees, demolish the buildings and plant trees in their stead. Hypothetically, of course.

Really, AI, if you're going to hypothesize, why limit yourself?

Or Apple could give me the $70 billiion. If you're going to hypothesize, why limit yourself?

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post #191 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post

No we dont. We've for the most part we've moved from a manufacturing economy to a service economy. The problem is that the people who most purchase services (middle class) is dwindling.

Yes, but the middle class is supposedly growing in other countries, like India and China. Perhaps they will buy our services. In theory. \

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post #192 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ1970 View Post

Who cares? If the pie is getting bigger and everyone is getting more pie, but some are getting even more...then the only issue is envy.

Yes but expenses have outgrown whatever wage increases there have been so it doesn't really matter.
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post #193 of 281
I like!
post #194 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Yes, but the middle class is supposedly growing in other countries, like India and China. Perhaps they will buy our services. In theory. \

Many services are local thus cannot be purchased by people in China or India.
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post #195 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by jj.yuan View Post

If I were Steve Jobs, I would invest in R&D some more and develop more talents and products.

You know Steve is not Apple. Apple is a collection of so many people, he can set direction to the company and really rule every little aspect of a product, but such decisions come from board of directors and other senior management.
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post #196 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

If only the USA's economy was more like Japan's, things would be much better.

That's not really possible because the US population is like 3 times of those 2 countries combined.
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post #197 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by techno View Post

Or they could manufacture their products in the US and create some jobs.

Uh, lets keep all that manufacturing pollution as far as possible. People really don't know what they are asking for.

Apple increments product features one bite at a time...hence the logo. Want the next big thing? You're gonna have to pick another fruit from the Apple Tree.

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Apple increments product features one bite at a time...hence the logo. Want the next big thing? You're gonna have to pick another fruit from the Apple Tree.

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post #198 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by rivertrip View Post

Instead of repeating the standard (disproved) Republican answer for everything, please just post a link to it. That would waste a lot less bandwidth.

Instead of just casually rejecting a couple hundred years of economic observation, theory, and understanding, why don't you crack open a decent economics book. That would waste a lot less time.

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post #199 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

dont the chineese also buy American made stuff? mostly big stuff like cars, cranes (think caterpillar) and farm gear (think john deere)?

we do have an imballance obviously but hey, one combine is equal to thousands of i-devices...

You forgot Buick's, they buy tons of those. Really!!!
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post #200 of 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by a_greer View Post

come on, we all know about Reaganomics, trickledown means that workers are the urinal cakes, hoping for a little trickle...

Wealth is not a zero-sum game. It is a positive-sum game. Well...until the government steps it...then it is a negative-sum game.

The state is nothing more than a criminal gang writ large.

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